Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

Energy policies for rural electrification: a social multi-criteria evaluation approach

In this article, a real-world case- study is presented with two general objectives: to give a clear and simple illustrative example of application of social multi-criteria evaluation (SMCE) in the field of rural renewable energy policies, and to help in understanding to what extent and under which circumstances solar energy is suitable for electrifying isolated farmhouses. In this sense, this study might offer public decision- makers some insight on the conditions that favour the diffusion of renewable energy, in order to help them to design more effective energy policies for rural communities.

Search and bargaining in large markets with homogeneous traders

We study pair-wise decentralized trade in dynamic markets with homogeneous, non-atomic, buyers and sellers that wish to exchange one unit. Pairs of traders are randomly matched and bargaining a price under rules that offer the freedom to quit the match at any time. Market equilbria, prices and trades over time, are characterized. The asymptotic behavior of prices and trades as frictions (search costs and impatience) vanish, and the conditions for (non) convergence to walrasian prices are explored. As a side product of independent interest, we present a self-contained theory of non-cooperative bargaining with two-sided, time-varying, outside options.

Fair procedures. Evidence from games involving lotteries

Procedural fairness plays a prominent role in the social discourse concerning the marketplace in particular, and social institutions in general. Random procedures are a simple case, and they have found application in several important social allocation decisions. We investigate random procedures in the laboratory. We find that an unbiased random procedure is an acceptable substitute for an unbiased allocation: similar patterns of acceptance and rejection result when either is inserted as a feasible proposal in a sequential battle-of-the-sexes. We also find that unbiasedness, known to be a crucial characteristic of allocation fairness, is important to procedural fairness: in the context of a random offer game, a biased outcome is more readily accepted when chosen by an unbiased random draw than by one that is biased. Procedural fairness is conceptually different than allocation fairness or attribution-based behavior, and none of the current models of fairness and reciprocity captures our results. Post hoc extension of one of these models (ERC) suggests that a deeper understanding of procedural fairness requires further investigation of competing fairness norms.

Identificació de components inclusius en alguns centres escolars d'educació infantil i primària de la comarca d'Osona

The present essay –which is a pilot study conceived to continue the research in depth in the future- is based in a comparative analysis of educational practice between five different primary and pre-school teaching centres in Osona and the educational practice in inclusive educational centres. The essay introduces the objectives of the research and the theoretical and conceptual framework in which it is based (chapter 1) in relation with the main themes and expressions which are the purpose of the study: comprensivity, inclusive school and inclusive practice. The theoretical framework is linked to the principal regulations applied in our context. The study describes the instruments and procedure analysis describes the instruments and procedure analysis which have been designed and used for a qualitative methodological approach, together with the data obtained from the analysis of five teaching centres (chapter 2). The results from the research show that the practice done in the analised schools are not totally comparable to the ones in the inclusive environment. Notwithsanding, there are some similar points, although not totally coincident, like the fact that either the analysed schools or the ones with an inclusive approach show availability and interest in improving integration of all the pupils in the school, also the teachers work together in some aspects like, evaluation of pupils with special needs, objectives and contents and activities fort he specific kind of pupils with special needs parents and the majority of the analyzed schools, like those fallowing inclusive educational approaches, try the pupils with special needs to develop their acquisition within the ordinary class with adapted material. I think, these verifications, some of them close to inclusive educational practice, could constitute a starting point to analyse our model, in order to offer a common curriculum that could respect the different styles and rhythms of acquisition of all the pupils, so that promoting a more flexible and open schooling. In conclusion, the results of this analysis, although dues to its limits, they can not be generalized, they can help to find the necessary changes to bet for a qualitative education in a school for everyone.

Publishing performance of spanish academics: 1970-2004: institutions, researchers et al.

This work complements some of the results appearing in the article ?Publishing Performance in Economics: Spanish Rankings? by Dolado et al. . Specifically we focus on the robustness of the results regardless of the time span considered, the effect of the choice of a particular database on the final results, and the effects on changes in the unit of institutional measure (departments versus institutions as a whole). Differences are significant when we expand the time period considered. There are also significant but small differences if we combine datasets to derive the rankings. Finally, department rankings offer a more precise picture of the situation of the Spanish academics, although results do not differ substantially from those obtained when overall institutions are considered.

Political institutions and the development of telecommunications

It has traditionally been argued that the development of telecommunications infrastructure is dependent on the quality of countries' political institutions. We estimate the effect of political institutions on the diffusion of three telecommunications services and find it to be much smaller in cellular telephony than in the others. By evaluating the importance of institutions for technologies rather than for industries, we reveal important growth opportunities for developing countries and offer policy implications for alleviating differences between countries in international telecommunications development. Keywords: Political constraints, telecommunications, GMM, economic development. JEL codes: O1, O3.

Regulation in the Age of Globalization: The Difussion of Regulatory Agencies across Europe and Latin America

One of the most notable characteristics of the change in governance of the past two decades has been the restructuring of the state, most notably the delegation of authority from politicians and ministries to technocrats and regulatory agencies. Our unique dataset on the extent of these reforms in seven sectors in 36 countries reveals the widespread diffusion of these reforms in recent decades. In 1986 there were only 23 agencies across these sectors and countries (less than one agency per country); by 2002 this number had increased more than seven-fold, to 169. On average these 36 countries each have more than four agencies in the seven sectors studied. Yet the widespread diffusion of these reforms is characterized by cross-regional and cross-sectoral variations. Our data reveal two major variations: first, reforms are more widespread in economic regulation that in social spheres; second, regulatory agencies in the social spheres are more widespread in Europe than in Latin America. Why these variations in the spread of the reforms? In this paper we present for the first time the regulatory gaps across regions and sectors and then move on to offer some explanations for these gaps in a way that sheds some light on the nature of these reforms and on their limits. Our explanatory framework combines diffusion and structural explanations and in doing so sheds new light on the global diffusion of public policy ideas.

Freedom of choice as control over outcomes

As interactions between individuals are introduced into the freedom of choice literature by the mean of game forms, new issues appear. In particular, in this paper it is argued that individuals face uncertainty with respect to outcomes as they lose the control they implicitely exert over options in the opportunity set framework. A criterion is proposed as to compare alternative game forms in terms of the control they offer to individuals. The CardMin criterion suggests that any game form should be judged on the basis of the strategy offering the lowest number of pairwise different outcomes. An axiomatic characterization is provided in the case of two individuals.

Meat quality of ten cattle breeds of the Southwest of Europe

A sample of about 70 young bulls of each of ten beef cattle breeds reared in their typical production systems has been characterised with respect to meat quality traits. Breeds included were Asturiana de los Valles, Asturiana de la Montaña, Avileña-Negra Ibérica, Bruna dels Pirineus, Morucha, Pirenaica and Retinta from Spain, and Aubrac, Gasconne and Salers from France. As was previously showed regarding carcass traits, there exist large differences both between and within breed – systems. In general, rustic breeds tended to present darker and redder meats with higher haematin contents, whereas less precocious and more specialised breeds showed brighter meats with bigger water losses. Protein content was similar, whereas intramuscular fat presented the larger variations both between and within breeds. ICDH content was higher in the more rustic breeds, showing the predominantly oxidative character of their fibres. Texture measurements showed in general large within breed-system variations, the differences between breeds being less evident. Within breed-system, daily gain weight was positively associated with brighter and tender meats. In the range studied, increasing slaughter weight within breed did not have influence on meat quality. Conformation was related to lower water holding capacity and less dry matter and intramuscular fat, as well as to a lower haematin content giving brighter meats. The increase in fatness scores was related to an augment of toughness in meat specialised breeds, although in Avileña-Negra Ibérica breed fatness carcasses were related to more tender meats. Redness parameter a* was positively related to fatter animals and opposed to conformation, the opposite being true for the L* (lightness) parameter. There was a small trend of fatter carcasses to be related to oxidative fibres, whereas the muscular fibres of the more conformed carcasses were more glycolytic. Texture measurements maximum load, maximum stress and toughness were very closely related. Shear force was opposed to tenderness. Losses at cooking were opposed to juiciness, but only in the Spanish breeds. No consistent trends regarding relationships between carcass characteristics and tenderness could be observed. Overall acceptability was primarily related with tenderness and flavour, and later on juiciness.

Disseny d'itineraris d'educació ambiental en ambients de fons de vall

L’anàlisi de l’estat actual dels equipaments i activitats d’educació ambiental (EA) en l’àmbit del Parc Natural de l’Alt Pirineu (PNAP) ha detectat un grau de desenvolupament molt baix d’aquesta disciplina. Per aquest motiu, s’elabora una nova eina, amb l’objectiu d’establir unes pautes per a l’elaboració d’una activitat d’EA concreta: els itineraris d’EA; i així ampliar l’escassa oferta actual. El protocol per al disseny d’itineraris d’EA, dóna unes directrius per a estandarditzar la descripció i l’anàlisi de la zona proposada. La finalitat del qual és facilitar i agilitar la implantació d’itineraris que presentin unes condicions mínimes establertes. La eficiència d’aquesta eina, queda verificada amb els resultats obtinguts en la realització de dues proves pilot en dues zones amb possibilitats de desenvolupar-hi itineraris d’EA. Una de les zones ha quedat descartada, per l’incompliment d’un dels criteris que s’ha definit en el protocol com a imprescindibles pel bon desenvolupament de l’activitat que es planteja. Mentre que en l’altre zona, el compliment de totes aquestes condicions o criteris, fan viable la implantació de l’itinerari d’EA, duent a terme així el seu posterior disseny. Malgrat l’estudi es centri en un espai natural protegit concret, és una eina que pretén ser extrapolable en d’altres espais d’aquesta categoria.

A nonlinear threshold model for the dependence of extremes of stationary sequences

One of the main implications of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) is that expected future returns on financial assets are not predictable if investors are risk neutral. In this paper we argue that financial time series offer more information than that this hypothesis seems to supply. In particular we postulate that runs of very large returns can be predictable for small time periods. In order to prove this we propose a TAR(3,1)-GARCH(1,1) model that is able to describe two different types of extreme events: a first type generated by large uncertainty regimes where runs of extremes are not predictable and a second type where extremes come from isolated dread/joy events. This model is new in the literature in nonlinear processes. Its novelty resides on two features of the model that make it different from previous TAR methodologies. The regimes are motivated by the occurrence of extreme values and the threshold variable is defined by the shock affecting the process in the preceding period. In this way this model is able to uncover dependence and clustering of extremes in high as well as in low volatility periods. This model is tested with data from General Motors stocks prices corresponding to two crises that had a substantial impact in financial markets worldwide; the Black Monday of October 1987 and September 11th, 2001. By analyzing the periods around these crises we find evidence of statistical significance of our model and thereby of predictability of extremes for September 11th but not for Black Monday. These findings support the hypotheses of a big negative event producing runs of negative returns in the first case, and of the burst of a worldwide stock market bubble in the second example. JEL classification: C12; C15; C22; C51 Keywords and Phrases: asymmetries, crises, extreme values, hypothesis testing, leverage effect, nonlinearities, threshold models

Métodos de extracción de parámetros de un circuito equivalente de pequeña señal para transistores LDMOS de potencia para aplicaciones de RF

En la actualidad, la gran cantidad de aplicaciones que surgen dentro del ámbito de la radiofrecuencia hacen que el desarrollo de dispositivos dentro de este campo sea constante. Estos dispositivos cada vez requieren mayor potencia para frecuencias de trabajo elevadas, lo que sugiere abrir vías de investigación sobre dispositivos de potencia que ofrezcan los resultados deseados para altas frecuencias de operación (GHz). Dentro de este ámbito, el objetivo principal de este proyecto es el de realizar un estudio sobre este tipo de dispositivos, siendo el transistor LDMOS el candidato elegido para tal efecto, debido a su buen comportamiento en frecuencia para tensiones elevadas de funcionamiento.

Oracle teleservice

Aquest projecte es basa en la implantació del mòdul Oracle Service del producte de CRM d'Oracle. Aquest mòdul ens proporciona la funcionalitat necessària per gestionar tot allò relacionat amb el Servei d’Atenció a l'Usuari. Mirarem d'oferir una visió àmplia basada en el concepte de CRM i en les seves claus d’èxit, així com en la importància de l'organització i de la reestructuració empresarial que se'n deriva. Utilitzarem l'estratègia d’implantació ràpida que proporciona Oracle i descriurem la manera de parametritzar el mòdul Oracle Service amb la finalitat de portar l’estandard a la solució desitjada pel client de manera ràpida i eficaç.

Markup Test Reader: eina de creació i lectura de formularis de test

El projecte exposat en aquestes pàgines és un document d'estudi, anàlisi, disseny, programació i procés de proves en la confecció d'una aplicació de creació i lectura de formularis de test. Aquesta aplicació parteix de les possibilitats de millora de les prestacions, usabilitat i escalabilitat que poden oferir les tècniques de visió en computador en aquest camp. El projecte s'ha basat en un exemple en concret per tal d'oferir una eina vàlida per a la automatització de les tasques que en una empresa de recursos humans es poden donar a l'hora de gestionar la informació dels test psicotècnics que necessiten gestionar. El projecte parteix d'unes premisses bàsiques tals com: l'ús de tècniques en visió per computador, la modularitat, el compliment d'estàndards, la facilitat d'ús i la facilitat en la gestió de canvis.