Assessing the structural change of strategic mobility: determinants under hypercompetitive environments

The primary purpose of this exploratory empirical study is to examine the structural stability of a limited number of alternative explanatory factors of strategic change. On the basis of theoretical arguments and prior empirical evidence from two traditional perspectives, we propose an original empirical framework to analyse whether these potential explanatory factors have remained stable over time in a highly turbulent environment. This original question is explored in a particular setting: the population of Spanish private banks. The firms of this industry have experienced a high level of strategic mobility as a consequence of fundamental changes undergone in their environmental conditions over the last two decades (mainly changes related to the new banking and financial regulation process). Our results consistently support that the effect of most explanatory factors of strategic mobility considered did not remain stable over the whole period of analysis. From this point of view, the study sheds new light on major debates and dilemmas in the field of strategy regarding why firms change their competitive patterns over time and, hence, to what extent the "contextdependency" of alternative views of strategic change as their relative validation can vary over time for a given population. Methodologically, this research makes two major contributions to the study of potential determinants of strategic change. First, the definition and measurement of strategic change employing a new grouping method, the Model-based Cluster Method or MCLUST. Second, in order to asses the possible effect of determinants of strategic mobility we have controlled the non-observable heterogeneity using logistic regression models for panel data.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Demand-based structural change and balanced economic growth

[eng] We analyze the equilibrium of a multi-sector exogenous growth model where the introduction of minimum consumption requirements drives structural change. We show that equilibrium dynamics simultaneously exhibt structural change and balanced growth of aggregate variables as is observed in US when the initial intensity of minimum consumption requirements is sufficiently small. This intensity is measured by the ratio between the aggregate value of the minimum consumption requirements and GDP and, therefore, it is inversely related with the level of economic development. Initially rich economies benefit from an initially low intensity of the minimum consumption requirements and, as a consequence, these economies end up exhibiting balanced growth of aggregate variables, while there is structural change. In contrast, initially poor economies suffer from an initially large intensity of the minimum consumption requirements, which makes the growth of the aggregate variables unbalanced during a very large period. These economies may never exhibit simultaneously balanced growth of aggregate variables and structural change.

Determinants of high-growth firms:why do some countries have more high-growth firms than others?

High-growth firms have been shown to be a key factor for economic growth and structural change. This paper analyses the determinants of the number of high-growth firms in a country for 17 OECD countries between 1999 and 2005, using the Amadeus data set, the GEM data set, and others. The first contribution of this paper is that it is – as far as we know – the first empirical analysis of high-growth firms at the country level on the basis of actual measured growth. Second, we find indicative empirical evidence for three driving forces of high growth, viz. entrepreneurship, institutional settings, and opportunities for growth, all in accordance with theory and empirical findings in related fields of research. Third, the paper gives a tentative explanation of the differences in the average percentage of high-growth firms between countries. Finally, the paper gives some clues for policy makers how to promote high-growth firms. Keywords: high-growth firms, fast growing firms, entrepreneurship, institutional obstacles, opportunities for growth

The Farm, the city, and the emergence of social security

We study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries suggest that urbanization and industrialization are associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe an OLG model in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together in a political economy equilibrium. In the model economy, there are two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial) and the decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Farmers rely on land inheritance for their old age and do not support a pay-as-you-go social security system. With structural change, people migrate to the city, the land loses its importance and support for social security arises. We show that a calibrated version of this economy, where social security taxes are determined by majority voting, is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States.

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP

The well-known lack of power of unit root tests has often been attributed to the shortlength of macroeconomic variables and also to DGP s that depart from the I(1)-I(0)alternatives. This paper shows that by using long spans of annual real GNP and GNPper capita (133 years) high power can be achieved, leading to the rejection of both theunit root and the trend-stationary hypothesis. This suggests that possibly neither modelprovides a good characterization of these data. Next, more flexible representations areconsidered, namely, processes containing structural breaks (SB) and fractional ordersof integration (FI). Economic justification for the presence of these features in GNP isprovided. It is shown that the latter models (FI and SB) are in general preferred to theARIMA (I(1) or I(0)) ones. As a novelty in this literature, new techniques are appliedto discriminate between FI and SB models. It turns out that the FI specification ispreferred, implying that GNP and GNP per capita are non-stationary, highly persistentbut mean-reverting series. Finally, it is shown that the results are robust when breaksin the deterministic component are allowed for in the FI model. Some macroeconomicimplications of these findings are also discussed.

On the sources of the Great Moderation

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. That evidencepoints to structural change, as opposed to just good luck, as an explanation for the Great Moderation. We use a simple macro model to suggest some of the immediate sources which are likely to be behindthe observed changes.

The statistical accuracy of surveys on business and economic perspectives: a case study

In this paper, we develop a new decision making model and apply it in political Surveys of economic climate collect opinions of managers about the short-term future evolution of their business. Interviews are carried out on a regular basis and responses measure optimistic, neutral or pessimistic views about the economic perspectives. We propose a method to evaluate the sampling error of the average opinion derived from a particular type of survey data. Our variance estimate is useful to interpret historical trends and to decide whether changes in the index from one period to another are due to a structural change or whether ups and downs can be attributed to sampling randomness. An illustration using real data from a survey of business managers opinions is discussed.

Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities. The methods includeKolmogorov-Smirnov and Cram?r-von Mises-type tests for the correct specification ofpredictive densities robust to dynamic mis-specification. The novelty is that the testscan detect mis-specification in the predictive densities even if it appears only overa fraction of the sample, due to the presence of instabilities. Our results indicatethat our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification inpredictive densities, even when it is time-varying. An application to density forecastsof the Survey of Professional Forecasters demonstrates the usefulness of the proposedmethodologies.

1,2,3,4-Tetrahydrobenzo[h][1,6]naphthyridines as a new family of potent peripheral-to-midgorge-site inhibitors of acetylcholinesterase: synthesis, pharmacological evaluation and mechanistic studies

A series of 1,2,3,4-tetrahydrobenzo[h][1,6]naphthyridines differently substituted at positions 1, 5, and 9 have been designed from the pyrano[3,2-c]quinoline derivative 1, a weak inhibitor of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) with predicted ability to bind to the AChE peripheral anionic site (PAS), at the entrance of the catalytic gorge. Fourteen novel benzonaphthyridines have been synthesized through synthetic sequences involving as the key step a multicomponent Povarov reaction between an aldehyde, an aniline and an enamine or an enamide as the activated alkene. The novel compounds have been tested against Electrophorus electricus AChE (EeAChE), human recombinant AChE (hAChE), and human serum butyrylcholinesterase (hBChE), and their brain penetration has been assessed using the PAMPA-BBB assay. Also, the mechanism of AChE inhibition of the most potent compounds has been thoroughly studied by kinetic studies, a propidium displacement assay, and molecular modelling. We have found that a seemingly small structural change such as a double O → NH bioisosteric replacement from the hit 1 to 16a results in a dramatic increase of EeAChE and hAChE inhibitory activities (>217- and >154-fold, respectively), and in a notable increase in hBChE inhibitory activity (> 11-fold), as well. An optimized binding at the PAS besides additional interactions with AChE midgorge residues seem to account for the high hAChE inhibitory potency of 16a (IC50 = 65 nM), which emerges as an interesting anti-Alzheimer lead compound with potent dual AChE and BChE inhibitory activities.

1,2,3,4-Tetrahydrobenzo[h][1,6]naphthyridines as a new family of potent peripheral-to-midgorge-site inhibitors of acetylcholinesterase: synthesis, pharmacological evaluation and mechanistic studies

A series of 1,2,3,4-tetrahydrobenzo[h][1,6]naphthyridines differently substituted at positions 1, 5, and 9 have been designed from the pyrano[3,2-c]quinoline derivative 1, a weak inhibitor of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) with predicted ability to bind to the AChE peripheral anionic site (PAS), at the entrance of the catalytic gorge. Fourteen novel benzonaphthyridines have been synthesized through synthetic sequences involving as the key step a multicomponent Povarov reaction between an aldehyde, an aniline and an enamine or an enamide as the activated alkene. The novel compounds have been tested against Electrophorus electricus AChE (EeAChE), human recombinant AChE (hAChE), and human serum butyrylcholinesterase (hBChE), and their brain penetration has been assessed using the PAMPA-BBB assay. Also, the mechanism of AChE inhibition of the most potent compounds has been thoroughly studied by kinetic studies, a propidium displacement assay, and molecular modelling. We have found that a seemingly small structural change such as a double O → NH bioisosteric replacement from the hit 1 to 16a results in a dramatic increase of EeAChE and hAChE inhibitory activities (>217- and >154-fold, respectively), and in a notable increase in hBChE inhibitory activity (> 11-fold), as well. An optimized binding at the PAS besides additional interactions with AChE midgorge residues seem to account for the high hAChE inhibitory potency of 16a (IC50 = 65 nM), which emerges as an interesting anti-Alzheimer lead compound with potent dual AChE and BChE inhibitory activities.

Infrastructure and Economic Growth in Spain, 1845-1935

Between the mid-nineteenth century and the outbreak of the Spanish Civil War in 1936, Spain undertook a sustained process of economic growth and structural change, but was unable to converge with the core European economies.1 The reasons behind Spain"s failure to converge have been a subject of debate among historians for decades. 2 This dissertation aims to analyze the role played by infrastructure in Spanish economic growth during that period, and tries to find out to what extent the potential shortage or inadequacy of the Spanish infrastructure endowment was one of the factors to blame for the country"s nonconvergence. The dissertation draws on recent research on the economic impact of infrastructure, and on the numerous attempts to measure that impact which have been undertaken in the wake of David Aschauer"s work on the United States.

1,2,3,4-Tetrahydrobenzo[h][1,6]naphthyridines as a new family of potent peripheral-to-midgorge-site inhibitors of acetylcholinesterase: synthesis, pharmacological evaluation and mechanistic studies

A series of 1,2,3,4-tetrahydrobenzo[h][1,6]naphthyridines differently substituted at positions 1, 5, and 9 have been designed from the pyrano[3,2-c]quinoline derivative 1, a weak inhibitor of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) with predicted ability to bind to the AChE peripheral anionic site (PAS), at the entrance of the catalytic gorge. Fourteen novel benzonaphthyridines have been synthesized through synthetic sequences involving as the key step a multicomponent Povarov reaction between an aldehyde, an aniline and an enamine or an enamide as the activated alkene. The novel compounds have been tested against Electrophorus electricus AChE (EeAChE), human recombinant AChE (hAChE), and human serum butyrylcholinesterase (hBChE), and their brain penetration has been assessed using the PAMPA-BBB assay. Also, the mechanism of AChE inhibition of the most potent compounds has been thoroughly studied by kinetic studies, a propidium displacement assay, and molecular modelling. We have found that a seemingly small structural change such as a double O → NH bioisosteric replacement from the hit 1 to 16a results in a dramatic increase of EeAChE and hAChE inhibitory activities (>217- and >154-fold, respectively), and in a notable increase in hBChE inhibitory activity (> 11-fold), as well. An optimized binding at the PAS besides additional interactions with AChE midgorge residues seem to account for the high hAChE inhibitory potency of 16a (IC50 = 65 nM), which emerges as an interesting anti-Alzheimer lead compound with potent dual AChE and BChE inhibitory activities.