Improving small area estimation by combining surveys: new perspectives in regional statistics

A national survey designed for estimating a specific population quantity is sometimes used for estimation of this quantity also for a small area, such as a province. Budget constraints do not allow a greater sample size for the small area, and so other means of improving estimation have to be devised. We investigate such methods and assess them by a Monte Carlo study. We explore how a complementary survey can be exploited in small area estimation. We use the context of the Spanish Labour Force Survey (EPA) and the Barometer in Spain for our study.

How important are tobacco prices in the propensity to start and quit smoking? An analysis of smoking histories from the Spanish National Health Survey

This paper analyses the effect of tobacco prices on the propensity tostart and quit smoking using a pool of the 1993, 1995 and 1997 editionsof the Spanish National Health Surveys. The estimates for severalparametric models of the hazard rate for starting and quitting suggestthat i) The public health measures applied as of 1992 have had asignificative effect on both reducing the hazard of starting andincreasing the hazard of quitting, ii) Prices have a very weak effect onthe hazard of starting in the male population and no significant effectin the female population, iii) The price floor of cigarrettes, proxiedby the average price of a pack of black cigarrettes, has a significanteffect on the quitting hazard which is robust across specifications andapplies to both men and women. The implied price elasticity of the timeup to quitting is situated around -1.4.

Informal care and labour force participation among middle-aged women in Spain

Informal care is today the form of support most commonly used by those who need other peoplein order to carry out certain activities that are considered basic (eating, dressing, taking a shower,etc.), in Spain and in most other countries in the region. The possible labour opportunity costsincurred by these informal carers, the vast majority of whom are middle-aged women, have not asyet been properly quantified in Spain. It is, however, crucially important to know these quantities ata time when public authorities appear to be determined to extend the coverage offered up to nowas regards long-term care.In this context, we use the Spanish subsample of the European Community Household Panel (1994-2001) to estimate a dynamic ordered probit and so attempt to examine the effects of various typesof informal care on labour behaviour. The results obtained indicate the existence of labouropportunity costs for those women who live with the dependent person they care for, but not forthose who care for someone outside the household. Furthermore, whereas caregiving for morethan a year has negative effects on labour force participation, the same cannot be said of those who start caregiving and stop caregiving .

Parametric and semiparametric estimation of sample selection models: an empirical application to the female labour force in Portugal

This comment corrects the errors in the estimation process that appear in Martins (2001). The first error is in the parametric probit estimation, as the previously presented results do not maximize the log-likelihood function. In the global maximum more variables become significant. As for the semiparametric estimation method, the kernel function used in Martins (2001) can take on both positive and negative values, which implies that the participation probability estimates may be outside the interval [0,1]. We have solved the problem by applying local smoothing in the kernel estimation, as suggested by Klein and Spady (1993).

Heterogeneity across immigrants in the Spanish labour

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the diferences that immigrants have in the Spanish labour market. Immigrants in Spain come from a diversity of continents (Africa, South America, Eastern Europe, Asia, etc.), and there are substantial diferences in characteristics not only among continents but also among countries in each continent. Using a quantile regression method of decomposition we estimate these diferences that are reflected in the labour market and in particular are mirrored in the wage, so some immigrants are more discriminated or segregated that others because they have less advantage. For example Argentineans and Peruvians have the same origin and culture but we can find diferences in the wage that they receive in the Spanish labor market, or for example Moroccans have a advantage with respect to the Rest of Africans, due to the geographical proximity to Spain. So when we study the pay gap and the gender pay gap we need to take into consideration the origin of immigrants. We also want to study how the integration of immigrants evolved across years, whether the wage gap that we find in the first episode of work between immigrants and natives disappears or continues to be present in the Spain labour market.

Fixed-term contracts and the duration distribution of unemployment

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts.Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studiesthe implications of such reforms for the duration distribution ofunemployment, with particular emphasis on the changes in the durationdependence. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectionaldata drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from 1980 to 1994 to analyzethe chances of leaving unemployment before and after the introduction offixed-term contracts. I find that duration dependence has increased sincesuch reform. Semi-parametric estimation of the model also shows that forlong spells, the probability of leaving unemployment has decreased sincesuch reform.

Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-section data

We propose a new econometric estimation method for analyzing the probabilityof leaving unemployment using uncompleted spells from repeated cross-sectiondata, which can be especially useful when panel data are not available. Theproposed method-of-moments-based estimator has two important features:(1) it estimates the exit probability at the individual level and(2) it does not rely on the stationarity assumption of the inflowcomposition. We illustrate and gauge the performance of the proposedestimator using the Spanish Labor Force Survey data, and analyze the changesin distribution of unemployment between the 1980s and 1990s during a periodof labor market reform. We find that the relative probability of leavingunemployment of the short-term unemployed versus the long-term unemployedbecomes significantly higher in the 1990s.

European employment strategy and spanish labour market policies

The paper aim is to analyse the influence of the European Employment Strategy (EES)in the implementation of the Spanish labour market policies. The first part of the paper describes the evolution and content of the EES. In the second one, the definition of activation is also explained. In addition to that, the ways how the EES develops and promotes active labour market policies are examined. The evolution of labour market policies in Spain and the current configuration of both active and passive policies are studied in the next three chapters. In these parts, the paper investigates to which extent the provisions of the EES have been implemented in Spain. The paper shows that: i) activation has been rising in the European countries since the implementation of the EES; ii) this fact has also happened in relative terms (comparing the evolution of active to passive policies); iii) Spain has been one of the countries which has led these processes; iv) the EES seems to have been influencing

The regional distribution of unemployment. What do micro-data tell us?

Regional disparities in unemployment rates are large and persistent. The literature provides evidence of their magnitude and evolution, as well as evidence of the role of certain economic, demographic and environmental factors in explaining the gap between regions of low and high unemployment. Most of these studies, however, adopt an aggregate approach and so do not account for the individual characteristics of the unemployed and employed in each region. This paper, by drawing on micro-data from the Spanish wave of the Labour Force Survey, seeks to remedy this shortcoming by analysing regional differentials in unemployment rates. An appropriate decomposition of the regional gap in the average probability of being unemployed enables us to distinguish between the contribution of differences in the regional distribution of individual characteristics from that attributable to a different impact of these characteristics on the probability of unemployment. Our results suggest that the well-documented disparities in regional unemployment are not just the result of regional heterogeneity in the distribution of individual characteristics. Non-negligible differences in the probability of unemployment remain after controlling for this type of heterogeneity, as a result of differences across regions in the impact of the observed characteristics. Among the factors considered in our analysis, regional differences in the endowment and impact of an individual’s education are shown to play a major role.

How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Recent evidence from Spanish regions

In recent years, Spain has received unprecedented immigration flows. Between 2001 and 2006 the fraction of the population born abroad more than doubled, increasing from4.8% to 10.8%. For Spanish provinces with above-median inflows (relative to population),immigration increased by 24% the number of high school dropouts while only increasingcollege graduates by 11%. We study different channels by which regional labor markets haveabsorbed the large increase in relative supply of low educated workers. We identify theexogenous supply shock using historical immigrant settlement patterns by country of origin.Using data from the Labor Force Survey and the decennial Census, we find a large expansion ofemployment in high immigration regions. Disaggregating by industry, the absorption operatedthrough large increases in the share of low-educated workers, compared to the same industry inlow-immigration regions. We do not find changes in sectoral specialization. Overall, andperhaps surprisingly, the pattern of absorption is very similar to the one found in the US.

The impact of women's educational and economic resources on fertility: Spanish birth cohorts 1901-1950

In this chapter we portray the effects of female education and professional achievement on fertility decline in Spain over the period 1920-1980 (birth cohorts of 1901-1950).A longitudinal econometric approach is used to test the hypothesis that the effects of women’s education in the revaluing of their time had a very significant influence on fertility decline. Although in the historical context presented here improvements in schooling were on a modest scale, they were continuous (with the interruption of the Civil War) and had a significant impact in shaping a model of low fertility in Spain. We also stress the relevance of this result in a context such as the Spanish for which liberal values were absent, fertility control practices were forbidden, and labour force participation of women was politically and socially constrained.

Compositional Time Series: An Application

The composition of the labour force is an important economic factor for a country.Often the changes in proportions of different groups are of interest.I this paper we study a monthly compositional time series from the Swedish LabourForce Survey from 1994 to 2005. Three models are studied: the ILR-transformed series,the ILR-transformation of the compositional differenced series of order 1, and the ILRtransformationof the compositional differenced series of order 12. For each of thethree models a VAR-model is fitted based on the data 1994-2003. We predict the timeseries 15 steps ahead and calculate 95 % prediction regions. The predictions of thethree models are compared with actual values using MAD and MSE and the predictionregions are compared graphically in a ternary time series plot.We conclude that the first, and simplest, model possesses the best predictive power ofthe three models

The impact of labour market status on second and higher-order births. A comparative study of Denmark, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom

This paper investigates the effects of women‘s labour force participation on fertility, as well as the effects of the combined labour force participation of both members of a couple. It specifically focuses on such dimensions as unemployment, earnings, temporary contracts and part-time jobs, and it shows that their effects differ in accordance with national institutions and labour market regulations. Event-history methods and a longitudinal sample of the European Community Household Panel are used in the analyses, concerning the years 1993-2000. The results show that labour market insecurity of one or both members of a couple has a particularly strong impact in reducing birth rates in the Southern European countries studied. The more conventional model of men’s employment combined with housewifery has a positive impact on second or higher order births in United Kingdom, Spain and Italy, while in Denmark the effect is the opposite. These differences are consistent with different national models of combining parental responsibilities and participation by gender across the life course.

Labour Market Formation Patterns in Nineteenth Century Catalonia

In this paper we portray the features of the Catalan textiles labour market in a period of technological change. Supply and demand for labour as well as a gendered view of living standards are presented. A first set of results is that labour supply adjusts to changes in labour demand trough the spread of new demographic attitudes. In this respect we imply that labour economic agents (or labour population) were able to modify the economic condition of their children. A second set of results refers to living standards and income distribution inequality. In this respect we see that unemployment and protectionism were the main sources breeding income inequality. A third set of results deals with the extreme labour market segmentation according to gender. Since women s real wages did not obey to an economic rationale we conclude that women were outside the labour market.

A study of the labour market trajectories in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg

We present an analysis of the register of all unemployment episodes in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg over a recent period of 55 months. We apply propensity score matching to account forthe systematic differences among the groups of subjects (registrants) and unemployment spells.We devise graphical and tabular summaries for describing the sequences of employment states ofthe members of the labour force who register at Agence pour le d?veloppement de l'emploi, theLuxembourg Public Unemployment Agency. Some employment-related information about themis collected by linking their records to the national register of social security contributions, maintained by Inspection g?n?rale de la s?curit? sociale. A class of univariate indices for characterisingthe sequences of labour force states is defined.