Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

We analyse the implications of optimal taxation for the stochastic behaviour of debt. We show that when a government pursues an optimal fiscal policy under complete markets, the value of debt has the same or less persistence than other variables in the economy and it declines in response to shocks that cause the deficit to increase. By contrast, under incomplete markets debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases in response to shocks that cause a higher deficit. Data for US government debt reveals diametrically opposite results from those of complete markets and is much more supportive of bond market incompleteness.

Fiscal insurance and debt management in OECD economies

Assuming the role of debt management is to provide hedging against fiscal shocks we consider three questions: i) what indicators can be used to assess the performance of debt management? ii) how well have historical debt management policies performed? and iii) how is that performance affected by variations in debt issuance? We consider these questions using OECD data on the market value of government debt between 1970 and 2000. Motivated by both the optimal taxation literature and broad considerations of debt stability we propose a range of performance indicators for debt management. We evaluate these using Monte Carlo analysis and find that those based on the relative persistence of debt perform best. Calculating these measures for OECD data provides only limited evidence that debt management has helped insulate policy against unexpected fiscal shocks. We also find that the degree of fiscal insurance achieved is not well connected to cross country variations in debt issuance patterns. Given the limited volatility observed in the yield curve the relatively small dispersion of debt management practices across countries makes little difference to the realised degree of fiscal insurance.

Després del Big Bang: les forces de canvi i la formació electrònica

Pete Johnston fa un repàs del què poden representar els desenvolupaments recents en el camp de la formació electrònica per als professionals que es fan càrrec dels recursos d'informació requerits com a suport a l'ensenyament i l'aprenentatge.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

La llengua de l'enemic com a llengua pròpia: cultures translatives del paisatge indígena nord-americà

This research paper seeks to bring into view the present-day situation of Native-American narrative in English. It is divided into four chapters. The first deals with the emergence of what we might call a Native-American narrative style and its evolution from 1900 up until its particularly forceful expression in 1968 with the appearance of N. Scott Momaday’s novel House Made of Dawn. To trace this evolution, we follow the chronology set forth by Paula Gunn Allen in her anthology Voice of the Turtle: American Indian Literature 1900-1970. In the second chapter we hear various voices from contemporary Native-American literary production as we follow Simon J. Ortiz’s anthology Speaking for the Generations: Native Writers on Writing. Noteworthy among these are Leslie Marmon Silko and Gloria Bird, alongside new voices such as those of Esther G. Belin and Daniel David Moses, and closing with Guatemalan-Mayan Victor D. Montejo, exiled in the United States. These writers’ contributions gravitate around two fundamental notions: the interdependence between human beings and the surrounding landscape, and the struggle for survival, which of necessity involves the deconstruction of the (post-)colonial subject. The third chapter deals with an anthology of short stories and poems by present-day Native-American women writers, edited by Joy Harjo and Gloria Bird and entitled Reinventing the Enemy’s Language: Contemporary Native Women’s Writings of North America. It too exemplifies personal and cultural reaffirmation on a landscape rich in ancestral elements, but also where one’s own voice takes shape in the language which, historically, is that of the enemy. In the final chapter we see how translation studies provide a critical perspective and fruitful reflection on the literary production of Native-American translative cultures, where a wide range of writers struggle to bring about the affirmative deconstruction of the colonialised subject. Thus there comes a turnaround in the function of the “enemy’s language,” giving rise also to the question of cultural incommensurability.

The relationships of stress, health and wellbeing among workers

The precise relationship between the positive psychological state of work (i.e. engagement ) and the negative psychological state (i.e. burnout) has recently received research attention. Some view these as opposite states on the same similar continuum, while others take the position that they represent different biobehavioral spheres. This study expands our knowledge of the phenomenta engagement and burnout by analyzing their separate and joint manifestations. Using a sample of 2094 nurses, respondents were analyzed to determine the configuration of antecedents leading to separate and joint states of engagement and burnout, the configuration of engagement and burnout leading to mental, physical and organizational outcomes, and the relationship between engagement, bornout, and risk of metabolic syndrome. The study found that while both work engagement and burnout are highly correlated to health and organizational outcomes, the relative statistical power of burnout has a greater direct effect on health. It is important for workers and managers to adress the sources of burnout before addressing the positive psychological aspects of worker engagement.

Towards closure between measured and modelled UV under clear skies at four diverse sites

The purpose of this work is determine the extent of closure between measurements and models of UV irradiances at diverse sites using state of the art instruments, models, and the best available data as inputs to the models. These include information about aerosol optical depth (unfortunately not extending down as far into the UVB region as desirable because such information is not generally available), ozone column amounts, as well as vertical profiles of temperature. We concentrate on clear-sky irradiances, and report the results in terms of UV Index (UVI)

Islands of euchromatin-like sequence and expressed polymorphic sequences within the short arm of human chromosome 21

The goals of the human genome project did not include sequencing of the heterochromatic regions. We describe here an initial sequence of 1.1 Mb of the short arm of human chromosome 21 (HSA21p), estimated to be 10% of 21p. This region contains extensive euchromatic-like sequence and includes on average one transcript every 100 kb. These transcripts show multiple inter- and intrachromosomal copies, and extensive copy number and sequence variability. The sequencing of the "heterochromatic" regions of the human genome is likely to reveal many additional functional elements and provide important evolutionary information.

Comparació de les dues traduccions al català de This Side of Paradise

En aquest treball es fa una anàlisi de This Side of Paradise, de Scott Fitzgerald, enfocada a avaluar les traduccions catalanes. A continuació, es comparen les dues traduccions existents: una de Francesc Parcerisas (Aquest costat del paradís, 1984) i l’altra de Josep Maria Fulquet (En aquest costat del paradís, 2003).

Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets

This paper tests for the market environment within which US fiscal policyoperates, that is we test for the incompleteness of the US government bondmarket. We document the stochastic properties of US debt and deficits andthen consider the ability of competing optimal tax models to account forthis behaviour. We show that when a government pursues an optimal taxpolicy and issues a full set of contingent claims, the value of debthas the same or less persistence than other variables in the economyand declines in response to higher deficit shocks. By contrast, ifgovernments only issue one-period risk free bonds (incomplete markets),debt shows more persistence than other variables and it increases inresponse to expenditure shocks. Maintaining the hypothesis of Ramseybehavior, US data conflicts.

Bounds on multisecant lines

The purpose of this paper is two fold. First, we give an upper bound on the orderof a multisecant line to an integral arithmetically Cohen-Macaulay subscheme in Pn of codimension two in terms of the Hilbert function. Secondly, we givean explicit description of the singular locus of the blow up of an arbitrary local ring at a complete intersection ideal. This description is used to refine standardlinking theorem. These results are tied together by the construction of sharp examples for the bound, which uses the linking theorems.

"Blade Runner" o la pregunta por la dignidad humana

Al pensar en la relación entre el fundamento de la dignidad humana y la resolución de algunos problemas bioéticos, me vino a la cabeza Blade Runner, la película de Ridley Scott basada en un relato de Philip K. Dickque lleva el extravagante título de ¿Sueñan los androides con ovejas eléctricas? (extravagante si vemos la película pero no tanto si leemos el relato)...