The Analysis of interval censoring and double censoring via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

L'Anàlisi de la supervivència s'utilitza en diferents camps per analitzar el temps transcorregut entre dos esdeveniments. El que distingeix l'anàlisi de la supervivència d'altres àrees de l'estadística és que les dades normalment estan censurades. La censura en un interval apareix quan l'esdeveniment final d'interès no és directament observable i només se sap que el temps de fallada està en un interval concret. Un esquema de censura més complex encara apareix quan tant el temps inicial com el temps final estan censurats en un interval. Aquesta situació s'anomena doble censura. En aquest article donem una descripció formal d'un mètode bayesà paramètric per a l'anàlisi de dades censurades en un interval i dades doblement censurades així com unes indicacions clares de la seva utilització o pràctica. La metodologia proposada s'ilustra amb dades d'una cohort de pacients hemofílics que es varen infectar amb el virus VIH a principis dels anys 1980's.

Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Chain conditions for Leavitt path algebras

In this paper, results known about the artinian and noetherian conditions for the Leavitt path algebras of graphs with finitely many vertices are extended to all row-finite graphs. In our first main result, necessary and sufficient conditions on a row-finite graph E are given so that the corresponding (not necessarily unital) Leavitt path K-algebra L(E) is semisimple. These are precisely the algebras L(E)for which every corner is left (equivalently, right)artinian. They are also precisely the algebras L(E) for which every finitely generated left (equivalently, right) L(E)-module is artinian. In our second main result, we give necessary and sufficient conditions for every corner of L(E) to be left (equivalently, right) noetherian. They also turn out to be precisely those algebras L(E) for which every finitely generated left(equivalently, right) L(E)-module is noetherian. In both situations, isomorphisms between these algebras and appropriate direct sums of matrix rings over K or K[x, x−1] are provided. Likewise, in both situations, equivalent graph theoretic conditions on E are presented.

The Macroeconomics of the labor market: three fundamental views

We distinguish and assess three fundamental views of the labor market regarding the movements in unempoyment: (i) the frictionless equilibrium view; (ii) the chain reaction theory, or prolonged adjustment view; and (iii) the hysteresis view. While the frictionless view implies a clear compartmentalization between the short- and long-run, the hysteresis view implies that all the short-run fluctuations automatically turn into long-run changes in the unemployment rate. We assert the problems faced by these conceptions in explaining the diversity of labor market experiences across the OECD labor markets. We argue that the prolonged adjustment view can overcome these problems since it implies that the short, medium, and long runs are interrelated, merging with one another along an intertemporal continuum.

Optimal coexistence of long-term and short-term contracts in labor Markets

We consider a market where firms hire workers to run their projects and such projects differ in profitability. At any period, each firm needs two workers to successfully run its project: a junior agent, with no specific skills, and a senior worker, whose effort is not verifiable. Senior workers differ in ability and their competence is revealed after they have worked as juniors in the market. We study the length of the contractual relationships between firms and workers in an environment where the matching between firms and workers is the result of market interaction. We show that, despite in a one-firm-one-worker set-up long-term contracts are the optimal choice for firms, market forces often induce firms to use short-term contracts. Unless the market only consists of firms with very profitable projects, firms operating highly profitable projects offer short-term contracts to ensure the service of high-ability workers and those with less lucrative projects also use short-term contracts to save on the junior workers' wage. Intermediate firms may (or may not) hire workers through long-term contracts.

Síntesi de siRNAs (short interfering RNAs) modificats amb nucleobases 5-metil i 5-propinil pirimidíniques i avaluació de la seva activitat in vitro en cultius cel•lulars i de la seva estabilitat en sèrum humà. Disseny de siRNAs dirigits a la inhibició de l'expressió de mutacions de l'oncogen K-ras.

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Stanford University, EEUU, entre 2007 i 2009. El present projecte es basa 1) en la síntesi de cadenes d'ARN dirigides a la inhibició de l'expressió gènica per un mecanisme d'ARN d'interferència (siRNAs o short interefering RNAs) i 2) en l'avaluació de l'activitat in vitro d'aquests oligonucleòtids en cultius cel•lulars. Concretament, la meva recerca ha estat enfocada principalment a l'estudi de cadenes de siRNA modificades amb nucleobases 5-metil i 5-propinil pirimidíniques. Es tractava d'avaluar l'efecte que exerceixen els factors estèrics en el major groove (solc major) dels siRNAs sobre la seva activitat biològica. En aquest sentit, he dut aterme síntesi de fosforamidits de nucleòsis pirimidínics modificats a la posició C-5 de la nucleobase. A continuació he incorporat aquestes unitats nucleosídiques en cadenes d'ARN emprant un sintetitzador d’ADN/ARN i he estudiat l'estabilitat dels corresponents dúplexs d'ARN mitjançant experiments de desnaturalització tèrmica. Finalment he dut a terme experiments d'inhibició de l'expressió gènica en cèl.lules HeLa per tal d'avaluar l'activitat biològia d'aquests siRNAs modificats. Els resultats d'aquests estudis han posat de manifest que la presència de grups voluminosos com el propinil a l'extrem 5' del dúplex de siRNA (definit per la cadena guia o antisense) influeix de forma molt negativa en la seva activitat biològica. En canvi, grups menys voluminosos com el metil hi influeixen positivament, de manera que algunes de les cadenes sintetitzades han resultat ser més actives que els corresponents siRNAs naturals (wild type siRNAs). A més, aquest tipus de modificació contribueix positivament en l'estabilitat de cadenes de siRNA en sèrum humà. Aquest treball ha estat publicat (Terrazas, M.; Kool, E.T. "Major Groove Modifications Improve siRNA Stability and Biological Activity" Nucleic Acids Res. 2009, in press).

Land use regulation and productivity - Land matters: Evidence from a UK Supermarket chain

We use store-specific data for a major UK supermarket chain to estimate the impact of planning on store output. Using the quasi-natural experiment of the variation in policies between England and other UK countries, we isolate the impact of Town Centre First policies. We find that space contributes directly to store productivity; and planning policies in England directly reduce output both by reducing store sizes and forcing stores onto less productive sites. We estimate that since the late 1980s planning policies have imposed a loss of output of at least 18.3 to 24.9% - more than a “lost decade’s” growth. JEL codes: D2, L51, L81, R32.