The gain-loss asymmetry and single-self preferences

Kahneman and Tversky asserted a fundamental asymmetry between gains and losses, namely a reflection effect which occurs when an individual prefers a sure gain of $ pz to anuncertain gain of $ z with probability p, while preferring an uncertain loss of $z with probability p to a certain loss of $ pz.We focus on this class of choices (actuarially fair), and explore the extent to which thereflection effect, understood as occurring at a range of wealth levels, is compatible with single-self preferences.We decompose the reflection effect into two components, a probability switch effect,which is compatible with single-self preferences, and a translation effect, which is not. To argue the first point, we analyze two classes of single-self, nonexpected utility preferences, which we label homothetic and weakly homothetic. In both cases, we characterize the switch effect as well as the dependence of risk attitudes on wealth.We also discuss two types of utility functions of a form reminiscent of expected utility but with distorted probabilities. Type I always distorts the probability of the worst outcome downwards, yielding attraction to small risks for all probabilities. Type II distorts low probabilities upwards, and high probabilities downwards, implying risk aversion when the probability of the worst outcome is low. By combining homothetic or weak homothetic preferences with Type I or Type II distortion functions, we present four explicit examples: All four display a switch effect and, hence, a form of reflection effect consistent a single self preferences.

Link between microstructure and properties in new metallurgical concepts for very low loss non-oriented electrical steel

The influence of chemistry and soaking temperature (maximal temperature of the continuous annealing) on the final properties of non-oriented electrical steels has been studied. With this objective two different studies have been performed. First the Mn, Ni and Cr content of a low loss electrical steel composition has been modified. An intermediate content and a high content of each element has been added in order to study the influence of this components on the magnetic looses, grain size and texture. Secondly the influence of the soaking temperature on magnetic properties, grain size and oxidation in four grades of non-oriented electrical steels (Steel A, B, C and D) was studied.

Loss risk through fraud in car insurance

Our objective is to analyse fraud as an operational risk for the insurance company. We study the effect of a fraud detection policy on the insurer's results account, quantifying the loss risk from the perspective of claims auditing. From the point of view of operational risk, the study aims to analyse the effect of failing to detect fraudulent claims after investigation. We have chosen VAR as the risk measure with a non-parametric estimation of the loss risk involved in the detection or non-detection of fraudulent claims. The most relevant conclusion is that auditing claims reduces loss risk in the insurance company.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

Hearing loss in Adult Women with Turner Syndrome

L'objectiu d'aquest estudi és definir els patrons d’hipoacúsia en dones amb Síndrome de Turner i els possibles factors que poden afavorir el desenvolupament d’hipoacúsia neurosensorial en dones adultes amb Síndrome de Turner. Es va trobar que més de la meitat de les dones amb Sindrome de Turner presenten hipoacúsia a l’audiometria, confirmat pels potencials evocats auditius de tronc; la hipoacúsia neurosensorial és el tipus de pèrdua d'audició més freqüent entre dones de mitjana edat amb síndrome de Turner i l'edat, el cariotip i la història prèvia d'otitis mitja recurrent són possibles factors de risc per l’aparició d’hipoacúsia en aquestes pacients.

An experimental test of loss aversion and scale compatibility

This paper studies two important reasons why people violate procedure invariance, loss aversion and scale compatibility. The paper extends previous research on loss aversion and scale compatibility by studying loss aversion and scale compatibility simultaneously, by looking at a new decision domain, medical decision analysis, and by examining the effect of loss aversion and scale compatibility on "well-contemplated preferences." We find significant evidence both of loss aversion and scale compatibility. However, the sizes of the biases due to loss aversion and scale compatibility vary over trade-offs and most participants do not behave consistently according to loss aversion or scale compatibility. In particular, the effect of loss aversion in medical trade-offs decreases with duration. These findings are encouraging for utility measurement and prescriptive decision analysis. There appear to exist decision contexts in which the effects of loss aversion and scale compatibility can be minimized and utilities can be measured that do not suffer from these distorting factors.

Worst-case bounds for the logarithmic loss of predictors

We investigate on-line prediction of individual sequences. Given a class of predictors, the goal is to predict as well as the best predictor in the class, where the loss is measured by the self information (logarithmic) loss function. The excess loss (regret) is closely related to the redundancy of the associated lossless universal code. Using Shtarkov's theorem and tools from empirical process theory, we prove a general upper bound on the best possible (minimax) regret. The bound depends on certain metric properties of the class of predictors. We apply the bound to both parametric and nonparametric classes ofpredictors. Finally, we point out a suboptimal behavior of the popular Bayesian weighted average algorithm.

Reflections on gains and losses: A 2x2x7 experiment

We test whether risk attitudes change when losses instead of gains areinvolved. The study of gain-loss asymmetries has been largely confinedto reflected choices, where all the money amounts of a positiveprospect are multiplied by minus one. We define the decomposition reflection = translation + probability switch, and experimentally findboth a translation effect (risk attraction becomes more frequent whengains are translated into losses) and a probability switch effect (riskattraction becomes more frequent when the probability of the best outcomedecreases). Surprisingly, the switch effect is somewhat stronger than thetranslation effect, negating a conventional reflection effect when onestarts with choices between gains with a low probability of the bestoutcome. We conclude by arguing that, while both the translation effectand the switch effect contradict the expected utility hypothesis, thetranslation effect implies a deeper violation of standard preference theory.

A reflection about the social and technological aspects in flood risk management - the case of the Italian Civil Protection

The right of a person to be protected from natural hazards is a characteristic of the social and economical development of the society. This paper is a contribution to the reflection about the role of Civil Protection organizations in a modern society. The paper is based in the inaugural conference made by the authors on the 9th Plinius Conference on Mediterranean Storms. Two major issues are considered. The first one is sociological; the Civil Protection organizations and the responsible administration of the land use planning should be perceived as reliable as possible, in order to get consensus on the restrictions they pose, temporary or definitely, on the individual free use of the territory as well as in the entire warning system. The second one is technological: in order to be reliable they have to issue timely alert and warning to the population at large, but such alarms should be as "true" as possible. With this aim, the paper summarizes the historical evolution of the risk assessment, starting from the original concept of "hazard", introducing the concepts of "scenario of event" and "scenario of risk" and ending with a discussion about the uncertainties and limits of the most advanced and efficient tools to predict, to forecast and to observe the ground effects affecting people and their properties. The discussion is centred in the case of heavy rains and flood events in the North-West of Mediterranean Region.

Exploring the connection between the stellar wind and the non-thermal emission in LS 5039

Context.LS 5039 has been observed with several X-ray instruments so far showing quite steady emission in the long term and no signatures of accretion disk. The source also presents X-ray variability at orbital timescales in flux and photon index. The system harbors an O-type main sequence star with moderate mass-loss. At present, the link between the X-rays and the stellar wind is unclear. Aims.We study the X-ray fluxes, spectra, and absorption properties of LS 5039 at apastron and periastron passages during an epoch of enhanced stellar mass-loss, and the long term evolution of the latter in connection with the X-ray fluxes. Methods.New XMM-Newton observations were performed around periastron and apastron passages in September 2005, when the stellar wind activity was apparently higher. April 2005 Chandra observations on LS 5039 were revisited. Moreover, a compilation of H EW data obtained since 1992, from which the stellar mass-loss evolution can be approximately inferred, was carried out. Results.XMM-Newton observations show higher and harder emission around apastron than around periastron. No signatures of thermal emission or a reflection iron line indicating the presence of an accretion disk are found in the spectrum, and the hydrogen column density () is compatible with being the same in both observations and consistent with the interstellar value. 2005 Chandra observations show a hard X-ray spectrum, and possibly high fluxes, although pileup effects preclude conclusive results from being obtained. The H EW shows yearly variations of 10%, and does not seem to be correlated with X-ray fluxes obtained at similar phases, unlike what is expected in the wind accretion scenario. Conclusions.2005 XMM-Newton and Chandra observations are consistent with 2003 RXTE/PCA results, namely moderate flux and spectral variability at different orbital phases. The constancy of the seems to imply that either the X-ray emitter is located at 1012 cm from the compact object, or the density in the system is 3 to 27 times smaller than that predicted by a spherical symmetric wind model. We suggest that the multiwavelength non-thermal emission of LS 5039 is related to the observed extended radio jets and is unlikely to be produced inside the binary system.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Low-loss rib waveguides containing Si nanocrystals embedded in SiO2

We report on the study and modeling of the structural and optical properties of rib-loaded waveguides working in the 600-900-nm spectral range. A Si nanocrystal (Si-nc) rich SiO2 layer with nominal Si excess ranging from 10% to 20% was produced by quadrupole ion implantation of Si into thermal SiO2 formed on a silicon substrate. Si-ncs were precipitated by annealing at 1100°C, forming a 0.4-um-thick core layer in the waveguide. The Si content, the Si-nc density and size, the Si-nc emission, and the active layer effective refractive index were determined by dedicated experiments using x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, Raman spectroscopy, energy-filtered transmission electron microscopy, photoluminescence and m-lines spectroscopy. Rib-loaded waveguides were fabricated by photolithographic and reactive ion etching processes, with patterned rib widths ranging from 1¿to¿8¿¿m. Light propagation in the waveguide was observed and losses of 11dB/cm at 633 and 780 nm were measured, modeled and interpreted.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.