Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Response of photosynthetic organisms to global change: an approach based on marker pigments

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Department of Freshwater Ecology, National Environmetal Research Institute, Denmark, from 2006 to 2008. The main objective of the project was to reconstruct photosynthetic organism community composition using pigmentbased methods and to study their response to natural (e.g. climate) or anthropogenic (e.g. eutrophication) perturbations that took place in the system over time. We performed a study in different locations and at different temporal scales. We analysed the pigment composition in a short sediment record (46 cm sediment depth) of a volcanic lake (Lake Furnas) in the Azores Archipelago (Portugal). The lake has been affected during the last century by successive fish introductions. The specific objective was to reconstruct the lake’s trophic state history and to assess the role of land-use, climate and fish introductions in structuring the lake community. Results obtained suggested that whereas trophic cascade and changes in nutrient concentrations have some clear effects on algal and microbial assemblages, interpreting the effects of changes in climate are not straightforward. This is probably related with the rather constant precipitation in the Azores Islands during the studied period. We also analysed the pigment composition in a long sediment record (1800 cm sediment depth) of Lake Aborre (Denmark) covering ca. 8kyr of lake history. The specific objective was to describe changes in lake primary production and lake trophic state over the Holocene and to determine the photosynthetic organisms involved. Results suggested that external forcing (i.e. land use changes) was responsible of erosion and nutrient run off to the lake that contributed to the reported changes in lake primary production along most of the Holocene.

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Parents, television and cultural change

This paper develops a model of cultural transmission where television plays a central role for socialization. Parents split their free time between educating their children which is costly and watching TV which though entertaining might socialize the children to the wrong trait. The free to air television industry maximizes advertisement revenue. We show that TV watching is increasing in cultural coverage, cost of education, TV's entertainment value and decreasing in the perceived cultural distance between the two traits. A monopolistic television industry captures all TV watching by both groups if the perceived cultural distance between groups is small relative to the TV's entertainment value. Otherwise, more coverage will be given to the most profitable group where profitability increases in group size, advertisement sensitivity and perceived cultural distance. This leads to two possible steady states where one group is larger but both groups survive in the long run. Competition in the media industry might lead to cultural extinction but only if one group is very insensitive to advertisement and not radical enough not to watch TV. We briefly discuss the existing evidence for the empirical predictions of the model.

Social media and political change: The case of the 2011 revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt

Throughout the past decade, social media have come on the scene of various popular revolts. Their role as tools of information and coordination of social movements, from the Iranian Green Movement in 2009 to the Arab uprisings in 2011, has been widely debated. In most cases, online activism through blogs, Facebook, Twitter or other forms of social media has allowed citizens to be part of a social networking exercise and to engage in a public sphere that would have otherwise been unreachable to them due to severe repression. In Tunisia and Egypt, social media helped protests start and expand thanks to their ability to coordinate and disseminate information quickly. The new information and communication tools were an influential factor in accelerating the revolutionary processes across the Arab world, albeit they cannot be seen as neither the spur nor the drivers of any revolution.

Trajectòries d'èxit de joves immigrants a l'ensenyament superior i al món professional

L’educació dels immigrants és un tema prioritari a les agendes polítiques de molts països de la OCDE. En molts casos, els governs s’han preocupat especialment de la seva integració al món del treball però creix l’interès en els seus resultats al sistema educatiu i en la revisió de les polítiques adreçades a respondre a les seves necessitats educatives i formatives. La majoria d’aquests estudis es situen a l’esfera de l’educació infantil, primària, secundaria i formació professional, per això resulta pràcticament impossible trobar estudis que analitzin el baix percentatge d’accés d’estudiants immigrants extracomunitaris a la universitat (al voltant de 3,3% en el cas de Catalunya); que contribueixin a entendre els factors que configuren les trajectòries d’èxit escolar i d’integració laboral dels estudiants immigrants que accedeixen i completen els estudis universitaris; que puguin donar pautes per desenvolupar polítiques educatives que millorin els resultats d’aprenentatge dels estudiants immigrants; i que puguin servir com a mirall i incentiu per a altres persones immigrants i, perquè no, també del país. Aquest projecte ha estudiat el conjunt d’elements que condicionen l’accés dels joves immigrants als estudis universitaris, i a l’estatus laboral que els hauria de possibilitar la seva formació universitària. L’estudi ha consistit en una metaanàlisi dels documents existents sobre el tema i en la realització de 8 narratives biogràfiques; quatre de persones cursant diferents estudis a les universitats catalanes i quatre que ja s’han incorporat al món del professional. Aquestes narratives venen acompanyades de 8 vídeos que exploren noves maneres de visibilització d’aquesta població i es transformen en una pràctica d’autoria. Aquest material visual pot servir com a recurs educatiu, en la mida que pugui ser un mirall i un incentiu per a altres persones immigrants i del país. Finalment, presenta un seguit de recomanacions per als responsables de les polítiques i dels centres educatius.

DIC.CAT. Dona, immigració i ciutadania: les dones marrquines com a generadores de ciutadania a Catalunya

DIC.CAT es centra en les contribucions a la ciutadania que realitzen les dones immigrants marroquines, sobre les quals recauen forts estereotips i imatges que, sovint, les vinculen a la passivitat i a la submissió. Partint d'aquest fet, el projecte analitza el paper d'aquetes dones com a generadores de noves formes de ciutadania a Catalunya, a partir de les seves accions en les esferes pública i privada. El projecte contribueix, d'una banda a ampliar el coneixement teòric sobre la noció de ciutadania, incorporant la dimensió del gènere i partint de la realitat multicultural actual; i de l'altra a aprofundir sobre el rol que estan exercint les doens marroquines estudiades, com agents actius de xsocialització i generadores de canvis en els formes d'exercir la ciutadania en la societat catalana. Destaquen les accions que desenvolupen des de la seva quotidianitat en relació a aspectes com el procés de reagrupació, la incorporació al mercat laboral, la transmissio de valores dins la familia, la relació amb la comunitat d'origen, les motivacions, aspiracions o els projectes professionals i personals propis. Alhora, el projecte vincula aquestes accions amb les que desenvolupen des dels espais públics en els que participen, especialment dins l'àmbit associatiu.

Stable complexes involving acetylcholinesterase and amyloid-ß-peptide change the biochemical properties of the enzyme and increase the neurotoxicity of Alzheimer's fibrils

Brain acetylcholinesterase (AChE) forms stable complexes with amyloid-beta peptide (Abeta) during its assembly into filaments, in agreement with its colocalization with the Abeta deposits of Alzheimer's brain. The association of the enzyme with nascent Abeta aggregates occurs as early as after 30 min of incubation. Analysis of the catalytic activity of the AChE incorporated into these complexes shows an anomalous behavior reminiscent of the AChE associated with senile plaques, which includes a resistance to low pH, high substrate concentrations, and lower sensitivity to AChE inhibitors. Furthermore, the toxicity of the AChE-amyloid complexes is higher than that of the Abeta aggregates alone. Thus, in addition to its possible role as a heterogeneous nucleator during amyloid formation, AChE, by forming such stable complexes, may increase the neurotoxicity of Abeta fibrils and thus may determine the selective neuronal loss observed in Alzheimer's brain.

What made him change? an individual and national analysis of men's participation in housework in 26 countries

We offer new evidence on multi-level determinants of the gender division of housework. Using data from the 2004 European Social Survey (ESS) for 26 European, we study the micro and macro-level factors which increase the likelihood of men doing an equal or greater share of housework than their female partners. A sample of 11,915 young men and women is analysed with a multi-level logistic regression in order to test at individual level the classic relative-income, time-availability and gender-role values, and a new couple conflict hypothesis. At individual level we find significant relationships between relative resources, values, couple's disagreement, and the division of housework which support more economic dependency than "doing gender" perspectives. At the macro-level, we find important composition effects and also support for gender empowerment, family model and social stratification explanations of cross-country differences.

The role of title insurance under recording and registration

This article outlines a transaction cost theory of title insurance andanalyses the role it plays in countries with recording and registrationof land titles. Title insurance indemnifies real estate right holdersfor losses caused by pre-existing title defects that are unknown whenthe policy is issued. It emerged to complement the errors and omissions insurance of professionals examining title quality. Poor organizationof public records led title insurers in the USA to integrate titleexamination and settlement services. Their residual claimant statusmotivates insurers to screen, cure and avoid title defects. Firmsintroducing title insurance abroad produce little information on titlequality, however. Their policies are instead issued on a casualty basis,complementing and enforcing the professional liability of conveyancers.Future development in markets with land registration is uncertainbecause of adverse selection, competitive reactions from establishedconveyancers and the ability of larger banks to self-insure title risks.

Interest rate restrictions in a natural experiment: loan allocation and the change in the usury laws in 1714

This article studies the effects of interest rate restrictions on loan allocation. The British governmenttightened the usury laws in 1714, reducing the maximum permissible interest rate from 6% to5%. A sample of individual loan transactions reveals that average loan size and minimum loan sizeincreased strongly, while access to credit worsened for those with little social capital. Collateralisedcredits, which had accounted for a declining share of total lending, returned to their former role ofprominence. Our results suggest that the usury laws distorted credit markets significantly; we findno evidence that they offered a form of Pareto-improving social insurance.

Time-related improvement of survival in resectable gastric cancer: the role of Japanese-style gastrectomy with D2 lymphadenectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy

Background: We investigated the change of prognosis in resected gastric cancer (RGC) patients and the role of radical surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. Methods: We retrospectively analyze the outcome of 426 consecutive patients from 1975 to 2002, divided into 2 time-periods (TP) cohort: Before 1990 (TP1, n = 207) and 1990 or after (TP2; n= 219). Partial gastrectomy and D1-lymphadenetomy was predominant in TP1 and total gastrectomy with D2-lymphadenectomy it was in TP2. Adjuvant chemotherapy consisted of mitomycin C (MMC), 10¿20 mg/m2 iv 4 courses or MMC plus Tegafur 500 mg/m2 for 6 months. Results: Positive nodes were similar in TP2/TP1 patients with 56%/59% respectively. Total gastrectomy was done in 56%/45% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Two-drug adjuvant chemotherapy was administered in 65%/18% of TP2/TP1 respectively. Survival at 5 years was 66% for TP2 versus 42%for TP1 patients (p < 0.0001). Survival by stages II, IIIA y IIIB for TP2 versus TP1 patients was 70 vs. 51% (p = 0.0132); 57 vs. 22% (p = 0.0008) y 30 vs. 15% (p = 0.2315) respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that age, stage of disease and period of treatment were independent variables. Conclusion: The global prognosis and that of some stages have improved in recent years with case RGC patients treated with surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy.

A study of the effects of PVAC on works of art on paper and wood: pH and colour change

This paper presents the preliminary findings of pH and colour measurements carried out on artworks on paperand on wood that had been treated with a poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) based adhesive in the 1980s. In both cases, areas treated with PVAC proved to be less acidic than untreated areas. Contrary to expectations, the conservation treatments have not, as yet, increased acidity levels in the objects under study. Colour measurements of the works on paper showed that those that had been backed with a cotton fabric using a mixture of methylcellulose and PVAC were less yellow than those from the same print run that had not been backed. This finding suggests that the backing somehow prevented the natural degradation of the support. In view of these preliminary results, further research is clearly needed. This study forms part of a broader ongoing project to assess the role of PVAC in the conservation of a range of cultural assets.

Memòria del projecte: Trajectòries d'èxit de joves immigrants a l'ensenyament superior i al món professional

[cat] L'educació dels immigrants és un tema prioritari a les agendes polítiques de molts països de la OCDE. En molts casos, els governs s'han preocupat especialment de la seva integració al món del treball però creix l'interès en els seus resultats al sistema educatiu i en la revisió de les polítiques adreçades a respondre a les seves necessitats educatives i formatives. La majoria d'aquests estudis es situen a l'esfera de l'educació infantil, primària, secundaria i formació professional, per això resulta pràcticament impossible trobar informes que analitzin el baix percentatge d'accés d'estudiants immigrants extracomunitaris a la universitat (al voltant de 3,3% en el cas de Catalunya); que contribueixin a entendre els factors que configuren les trajectòries d'èxit escolar i d'integració laboral dels estudiants immigrants que accedeixen i completen els estudis universitaris; que puguin donar pautes per desenvolupar polítiques educatives que millorin els resultats d'aprenentatge dels estudiants immigrants; i que puguin servir com a mirall i incentiu per a altres persones immigrants i, perquè no, també del país. Aquest projecte ha estudiat el conjunt d'elements que condicionen l'accés dels joves immigrants als estudis universitaris, i a l'estatus laboral que els hi hauria de possibilitar la seva formació universitària.L'estudi ha consistit en una metaanàlisi dels documents existents sobre el tema i en la realització de 8 narratives biogràfiques; quatre de persones cursant diferents estudis a les universitats catalanes i quatre que ja s'han incorporat al món del professional. Aquestes narratives venen acompanyades de 8 vídeos que exploren noves maneres de visibilització d'aquesta població i es transformen en una pràctica d'autoria. Aquest material visual pot servir com a recurs educatiu, en la mida que pugui ser un mirall i un incentiu per a altres persones immigrants i del país.Finalment, presenta un seguit de recomanacions per als responsables de les polítiques i dels centres educatius.