Proposta d'un model predictiu del risc d'ingrés hospitalari amb l'ús d'algoritmes bayesians

Model predictiu basat en xarxes bayesianes que permet identificar els pacients amb major risc d'ingrés a un hospital segons una sèrie d'atributs de dades demogràfiques i clíniques.

Individual-based modelling of bacterial cultures to study the lag ohase

Els bacteris són la forma dominant de vida del planeta: poden sobreviure en medis molt adversos, i en alguns casos poden generar substàncies que quan les ingerim ens són tòxiques. La seva presència en els aliments fa que la microbiologia predictiva sigui un camp imprescindible en la microbiologia dels aliments per garantir la seguretat alimentària. Un cultiu bacterià pot passar per quatre fases de creixement: latència, exponencial, estacionària i de mort. En aquest treball s’ha avançat en la comprensió dels fenòmens intrínsecs a la fase de latència, que és de gran interès en l’àmbit de la microbiologia predictiva. Aquest estudi, realitzat al llarg de quatre anys, s’ha abordat des de la metodologia Individual-based Modelling (IbM) amb el simulador INDISIM (INDividual DIScrete SIMulation), que ha estat millorat per poder fer-ho. INDISIM ha permès estudiar dues causes de la fase de latència de forma separada, i abordar l’estudi del comportament del cultiu des d’una perspectiva mesoscòpica. S’ha vist que la fase de latència ha de ser estudiada com un procés dinàmic, i no definida per un paràmetre. L’estudi de l’evolució de variables com la distribució de propietats individuals entre la població (per exemple, la distribució de masses) o la velocitat de creixement, han permès distingir dues etapes en la fase de latència, inicial i de transició, i aprofundir en la comprensió del que passa a nivell cel•lular. S’han observat experimentalment amb citometria de flux diversos resultats previstos per les simulacions. La coincidència entre simulacions i experiments no és trivial ni casual: el sistema estudiat és un sistema complex, i per tant la coincidència del comportament al llarg del temps de diversos paràmetres interrelacionats és un aval a la metodologia emprada en les simulacions. Es pot afirmar, doncs, que s’ha verificat experimentalment la bondat de la metodologia INDISIM.

Predicting overall service quality: a structural equation modelling approach

In this article, the results of a modified SERVQUAL questionnaire (Parasuraman et al., 1991) are reported. The modifications consisted in substituting questionnaire items particularly suited to a specific service (banking) and context (county of Girona, Spain) for the original rather general and abstract items. These modifications led to more interpretable factors which accounted for a higher percentage of item variance. The data were submitted to various structural equation models which made it possible to conclude that the questionnaire contains items with a high measurement quality with respect to five identified dimensions of service quality which differ from those specified by Parasuraman et al. And are specific to the banking service. The two dimensions relating to the behaviour of employees have the greatest predictive power on overall quality and satisfaction ratings, which enables managers to use a low-cost reduced version of the questionnaire to monitor quality on a regular basis. It was also found that satisfaction and overall quality were perfectly correlated thus showing that customers do not perceive these concepts as being distinct

Locations and Relocations:Modelling, Determinants, and Interrelations

Empirical studies on industrial location do not typically distinguish between new and relocated establishments. This paper addresses this shortcoming using data on the frequency of these events in municipalities of the same economic-administrative region. This enables us to test not only for differences in their determinants but also for interrelations between start-ups and relocations. Estimates from count regression models for cross-section and panel data show that, although partial effects differ, common patterns arise in “institutional” and “neoclassical” explanatory factors. Also, start-ups and relocations are positive but asymmetrically related. JEL classification: C25, R30, R10. Keywords: cities, count data models, industrial location

Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Analog Modelling of N-S anticlines of the External Sierras (Jaca basin, Southern Pyrenees)

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Uppsala Universitet, Sweden, from April to July the 2007. Two series of analogue models are used to explore ductile-frictional contrasts of the basal décollement in the development of oblique and transverse structures simultaneously to thin-skinned shortening. These models simulate the evolution of the Central External Sierras (Southern Pyrenees, Spain), which constitute the frontal emerging part of the southernmost Pyrenean thrust sheet. They are characterized by the presence of transverse N-S to NW-SE anticlines, which are perpendicular to the Pyrenean structural trend and developed in the hangingwall of the Santo Domingo thrust system, detaching on an unevenly distributed Triassic materials (evaporitic-dolomitic interfingerings). Model setup performs a décollement made by three patches of silicone neighbouring pure brittle sand. Model series A test the thickness ratio between overburden and décollement. Model series B test the width of frictional detachment areas. Model results show how deformation reaches further in areas detached on ductile layer whereas frictional décollement areas assimilate the strain by means of an additional uplift. This replicates the structural style of Central External Sierras: higher structural relief of N-S anticlines with regard to orogen-parallel structures, absence of a representative ductile décollement in the core, tilting towards the orogen and foreland-side closure not thrusted by the frontal emerging South-Pyrenean thrust.

Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Modelling the cooling of concrete by piped water

Piped water is used to remove hydration heat from concrete blocks during construction. In this paper we develop an approximate model for this process. The problem reduces to solving a one-dimensional heat equation in the concrete, coupled with a first order differential equation for the water temperature. Numerical results are presented and the effect of varying model parameters shown. An analytical solution is also provided for a steady-state constant heat generationmodel. This helps highlight the dependence on certain parameters and can therefore provide an aid in the design of cooling systems.

Testing, not modelling, the impact of cohesion support: a theoretical framework and some preliminary results for the Spanish regions

This paper develops a simple model that can be used to estimate the effectiveness of Cohesion expenditure relative to similar but unsubsidized projects, thereby making it possible to explicitly test an important assumption that is often implicit in estimates of the impact of Cohesion policies. Some preliminary results are reported for the case of infrastructure investment in the Spanish regions.

Predictive and distributed routing balancing (PR-DRB): high speed interconnection networks

Current parallel applications running on clusters require the use of an interconnection network to perform communications among all computing nodes available. Imbalance of communications can produce network congestion, reducing throughput and increasing latency, degrading the overall system performance. On the other hand, parallel applications running on these networks posses representative stages which allow their characterization, as well as repetitive behavior that can be identified on the basis of this characterization. This work presents the Predictive and Distributed Routing Balancing (PR-DRB), a new method developed to gradually control network congestion, based on paths expansion, traffic distribution and effective traffic load, in order to maintain low latency values. PR-DRB monitors messages latencies on intermediate routers, makes decisions about alternative paths and record communication pattern information encountered during congestion situation. Based on the concept of applications repetitiveness, best solution recorded are reapplied when saved communication pattern re-appears. Traffic congestion experiments were conducted in order to evaluate the performance of the method, and improvements were observed.

Modelling Interbank Relations during the International Financial Crisis

This paper examines the effects of the current financial crisis on the correlations of four international banking stocks. We find that in the beginning of the crisis banks generally show a transition to a higher correlation followed by a dramatic decline towards the end of 2008. These findings are consistent with both traditional contagion theory and the more recent network theory of contagion. JEL classifications: C51; G15 Keywords: Financial Crises; Contagion; Interbank Markets.

Quantificació de l'error comès pels models de níxol ecològic al predir la distribució d'especies generalistes

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the University of California at Berkeley, from September to December 2007. Environmental niche modelling (ENM) techniques are powerful tools to predict species potential distributions. In the last ten years, a plethora of novel methodological approaches and modelling techniques have been developed. During three months, I stayed at the University of California, Berkeley, working under the supervision of Dr. David R. Vieites. The aim of our work was to quantify the error committed by these techniques, but also to test how an increase in the sample size affects the resultant predictions. Using MaxEnt software we generated distribution predictive maps, from different sample sizes, of the Eurasian quail (Coturnix coturnix) in the Iberian Peninsula. The quail is a generalist species from a climatic point of view, but an habitat specialist. The resultant distribution maps were compared with the real distribution of the species. This distribution was obtained from recent bird atlases from Spain and Portugal. Results show that ENM techniques can have important errors when predicting the species distribution of generalist species. Moreover, an increase of sample size is not necessary related with a better performance of the models. We conclude that a deep knowledge of the species’ biology and the variables affecting their distribution is crucial for an optimal modelling. The lack of this knowledge can induce to wrong conclusions.

Sound Texture Modelling

In the PhD thesis “Sound Texture Modeling” we deal with statistical modelling or textural sounds like water, wind, rain, etc. For synthesis and classification. Our initial model is based on a wavelet tree signal decomposition and the modeling of the resulting sequence by means of a parametric probabilistic model, that can be situated within the family of models trainable via expectation maximization (hidden Markov tree model ). Our model is able to capture key characteristics of the source textures (water, rain, fire, applause, crowd chatter ), and faithfully reproduces some of the sound classes. In terms of a more general taxonomy of natural events proposed by Graver, we worked on models for natural event classification and segmentation. While the event labels comprise physical interactions between materials that do not have textural propierties in their enterity, those segmentation models can help in identifying textural portions of an audio recording useful for analysis and resynthesis. Following our work on concatenative synthesis of musical instruments, we have developed a pattern-based synthesis system, that allows to sonically explore a database of units by means of their representation in a perceptual feature space. Concatenative syntyhesis with “molecules” built from sparse atomic representations also allows capture low-level correlations in perceptual audio features, while facilitating the manipulation of textural sounds based on their physical and perceptual properties. We have approached the problem of sound texture modelling for synthesis from different directions, namely a low-level signal-theoretic point of view through a wavelet transform, and a more high-level point of view driven by perceptual audio features in the concatenative synthesis setting. The developed framework provides unified approach to the high-quality resynthesis of natural texture sounds. Our research is embedded within the Metaverse 1 European project (2008-2011), where our models are contributting as low level building blocks within a semi-automated soundscape generation system.

Social network measures for "nosduocentered" networks, their predictive power on performance

Our purpose in this article is to define a network structure which is based on two egos instead of the egocentered (one ego) or the complete network (n egos). We describe the characteristics and properties for this kind of network which we call “nosduocentered network”, comparing it with complete and egocentered networks. The key point for this kind of network is that relations exist between the two main egos and all alters, but relations among others are not observed. After that, we use new social network measures adapted to the nosduocentered network, some of which are based on measures for complete networks such as degree, betweenness, closeness centrality or density, while some others are tailormade for nosduocentered networks. We specify three regression models to predict research performance of PhD students based on these social network measures for different networks such as advice, collaboration, emotional support and trust. Data used are from Slovenian PhD students and their s

Modelling structural zeros in compositional data

This analysis was stimulated by the real data analysis problem of householdexpenditure data. The full dataset contains expenditure data for a sample of 1224 households. The expenditure is broken down at 2 hierarchical levels: 9 major levels (e.g. housing, food, utilities etc.) and 92 minor levels. There are also 5 factors and 5 covariates at the household level. Not surprisingly, there are a small number of zeros at the major level, but many zeros at the minor level. The question is how best to model the zeros. Clearly, models that tryto add a small amount to the zero terms are not appropriate in general as at least some of the zeros are clearly structural, e.g. alcohol/tobacco for households that are teetotal. The key question then is how to build suitable conditional models. For example, is the sub-composition of spendingexcluding alcohol/tobacco similar for teetotal and non-teetotal households?In other words, we are looking for sub-compositional independence. Also, what determines whether a household is teetotal? Can we assume that it is independent of the composition? In general, whether teetotal will clearly depend on the household level variables, so we need to be able to model this dependence. The other tricky question is that with zeros on more than onecomponent, we need to be able to model dependence and independence of zeros on the different components. Lastly, while some zeros are structural, others may not be, for example, for expenditure on durables, it may be chance as to whether a particular household spends money on durableswithin the sample period. This would clearly be distinguishable if we had longitudinal data, but may still be distinguishable by looking at the distribution, on the assumption that random zeros will usually be for situations where any non-zero expenditure is not small.While this analysis is based on around economic data, the ideas carry over tomany other situations, including geological data, where minerals may be missing for structural reasons (similar to alcohol), or missing because they occur only in random regions which may be missed in a sample (similar to the durables)