Ecological fallacy in a time series context: evidence from the Spanish regional unemployment rates

The ecological fallacy (EF) is a common problem regional scientists have to deal with when using aggregated data in their analyses. Although there is a wide number of studies considering different aspects of this problem, little attention has been paid to the potential negative effects of the EF in a time series context. Using Spanish regional unemployment data, this paper shows that EF effects are not only observed at the cross-section level, but also in a time series framework. The empirical evidence obtained shows that analytical regional configurations are the least susceptible to time effects relative to both normative and random regional configurations, while normative configurations are an improvement over random ones.

The Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) invasion effects on Mediterranean forests’ trophic web: blue tit (Parus caeruleus) reproduction and development

Les invasions biològiques representen una greu amenaça per al funcionament dels ecosistemes i per a la preservació de la biodiversitat.. La formiga argentina (Linepithema humile) està considerada com una de les 100 espècies invasores més nocives. Prospera en extenses àrees de clima mediterrani de regions temperades i subtropicals de tots els continents amb l’excepció de l’Antàrtida. És una formiga dominant i una competidora agressiva que mitjançant múltiples mecanismes, des de predació directe a competència, produeix efectes negatius en una amplia varietat de taxons, principalment formigues i altres artròpodes, però també vertebrats. S’ha investigat, per primera vegada, els efectes de la formiga invasiva sobre les comunitats d’artròpodes de fullatge i com aquestes pertorbacions es transmeten en la xarxa tròfica del bosc esclerofil•le mediterrani. En les suredes estudiades la invasió de formiga argentina és causa directe de la extinció local de la gran majoria de poblacions de formigues natives. En el període mostrejat s’han constatat també impactes negatius en la diversitat i en l’abundància d’artròpodes natius en les capçades dels arbres, particularment d’erugues. Una avaluació preliminar basada únicament amb dades del 2005 indica que, reduint la disponibilitat d’erugues, la formiga argentina empobreix l’hàbitat reproductiu de la mallerenga blava (Parus caeruleus). La mallerenga blava basa la dieta insectívora estricte de la seva pollada fonamentalment en les erugues. No hem detectat impactes en l’èxit reproductiu de les mallerengues blaves en zones envaïdes. Els polls crescuts en àrees envaïdes assoleixen una condició física similar als de les zones no envaïdes, però la reducció en la disponibilitat d’erugues associada a la invasió de formiga argentina es tradueix en un creixement descompassat i en una menor mida estructural del polls volanders. Així, les pertorbacions en la comunitat d’artròpodes associades a la invasió de la formiga argentina promouen efectes bottom-up que acaben perjudicant el desenvolupament dels polls de mallerenga blava.

Effects of increased drought and selective thinning on growth and resprouting of two coexisting Mediterranean oaks with contrasting leaf habit (Quercus ilex and Quercus cerrioides)

According to the IPCC (2007), the Mediterranean basin is expected to suffer important changes in temperature and precipitation in the next few decades, leading the climate warmer and dryer. Therefore, it is necessary to determine the possible effects of increased drought on species with different structural and physiological traits, to be able to predict possible changes in the structure and composition of Mediterranean forests. Moreover, it will be necessary to assess whether traditional management practices can mitigate the effects of climate change on these forests. The main aim of this study has been to analyze the effects of increased drought on the mortality, growth and resprouting patterns of two co-occurring Mediterranean oak species with contrasting leaf habit (the evergreen Quercus ilex and the winter-deciduous Quercus cerrioides), and to assess the effects of selective thinning on their response to increased drought. Our results show a differential effect of increased drought between species: no differences were observed in the growth of Q. ilex while Q. cerrioides reduced its growth under increased drought conditions. Selective thinning reduced the negative effects of increased drought on tree growth, although this beneficial effect tended to decrease during the experiment. Our results show that increasing aridity in Mediterranean areas can be a constraining factor for deciduous oaks, thus potentially causing their decline in mixed forests and favouring their substitution by the evergreen congeneric species. However, as seen in this study, management can strongly encourage growth both for deciduous and evergreen species, thus reversing the effects of increased water stress on Mediterranean coppices.

Economic and environmental effects of the CO2 taxation: an input-output analysis for Spain

CO2 emissions induced by human activities are the major cause of climate change; hence, strong environmental policy that limits the growing dependence on fossil fuel is indispensable. Tradable permits and environmental taxes are the usual tools used in CO2 reduction strategies. Such economic tools provide incentives to polluting industries to reduce their emissions through market signals. The aim of this work is to investigate the direct and indirect effects of an environmental tax on Spanish products and services. We apply an environmentally extended input-output (EIO) model to identify CO2 emission intensities of products and services and, accordingly, we estimate the tax proportional to these intensities. The short-term price effects are analyzed using an input-output price model. The effect of tax introduction on consumption prices and its influence on consumers’ welfare are determined. We also quantify the environmental impacts of such taxation in terms of the reduction in CO2 emissions. The results, based on the Spanish economy for the year 2007, show that sectors with relatively poor environmental profile are subjected to high environmental tax rates. And consequently, applying a CO2 tax on these sectors, increases production prices and induces a slight increase in consumer price index and a decrease in private welfare. The revenue from the tax could be used to counter balance the negative effects on social welfare and also to stimulate the increase of renewable energy shares in the most impacting sectors. Finally, our analysis highlights that the environmental and economic goals cannot be met at the same time with the environmental taxation and this shows the necessity of finding other (complementary or alternative) measures to ensure both the economic and ecological efficiencies. Keywords: CO2 emissions; environmental tax; input-output model, effects of environmental taxation.

The concentration of foreigners in French schools: interaction effects in place?

This paper explores the existence of negative peer-group pressures derived from the concentration of foreigners in French lower secondary schools. Using different dependent variables (number of years spent in lower secondary education, grades in 4th ‘and 3rd year and track election in upper secondary schooling) the analyses indicate that the much disputed existence of significant and negative effects of the concentration of foreign students in schools depends on the method used for the estimation. If we assume that the concentration of foreigners is a random and exogenous process, then the multivariate analyses confirm negative interactions. If, on the contrary, we question the assumption that this contextual information is not end the result of prior sorting mechanisms of individuals across social spaces, the concentration of foreigners has no statistical impact on attainment.

Sovereign Risk, Anonymous Markets, and the Effects of Globalization

The goal of this paper is to study the e¤ects of globalization on the workings of financial markets. We adopt a "technological" view of globalization, which consists of an exogenous reduction in the cost of shipping goods across di¤erent regions of the world. We model financial markets where agents anonymously trade securities issued by every other agent in the world. In the absence of frictions, we show how globalization creates trade opportunities among residents of different regions of the world, thereby raising welfare. In the presence of sovereign risk, however, there emerge two crucial interactions between trade among residents within a region and trade among residents of di¤erent regions. First, the more residents within a region trade with each other, the more they can trade with residents of other regions. Second, the possibility of trade with residents of other regions sometimes leads a government to not enforce payments by its residents, destroying trade opportunities among residents within the region. The net effect on welfare of this process of creation and destruction of trade opportunities is ambiguous. We argue that there are no policies governments can take to avoid the negative effects of globalization on trade among domestic residents. In a dynamic extension, we analyze how our results are a¤ected by reputational considerations.

Transition probabilities and duration analysis among disability states: Some evidence from Spanish data

In this paper we study the disability transition probabilities (as well as the mortalityprobabilities) due to concurrent factors to age such as income, gender and education. Althoughit is well known that ageing and socioeconomic status influence the probability ofcausing functional disorders, surprisingly little attention has been paid to the combined effectof those factors along the individuals' life and how this affects the transition from one degreeof disability to another. The assumption that tomorrow's disability state is only a functionof the today's state is very strong, since disability is a complex variable that depends onseveral other elements than time. This paper contributes into the field in two ways: (1) byattending the distinction between the initial disability level and the process that leads tohis course (2) by addressing whether and how education, age and income differentially affectthe disability transitions. Using a Markov chain discrete model and a survival analysis, weestimate the probability by year and individual characteristics that changes the state of disabilityand the duration that it takes its progression in each case. We find that people withan initial state of disability have a higher propensity to change and take less time to transitfrom different stages. Men do that more frequently than women. Education and incomehave negative effects on transition. Moreover, we consider the disability benefits associatedto those changes along different stages of disability and therefore we offer some clues onthe potential savings of preventive actions that may delay or avoid those transitions. Onpure cost considerations, preventive programs for improvement show higher benefits thanthose for preventing deterioration, and in general terms, those focussing individuals below65 should go first. Finally the trend of disability in Spain seems not to change among yearsand regional differences are not found.

Persistence of cognitive impairment and its negative impact on psychosocial functioning in lithium-treated, euthymic bipolar patients: a 6-year follow-up study.

BACKGROUND: Previous cross-sectional studies report that cognitive impairment is associated with poor psychosocial functioning in euthymic bipolar patients. There is a lack of long-term studies to determine the course of cognitive impairment and its impact on functional outcome. Method A total of 54 subjects were assessed at baseline and 6 years later; 28 had DSM-IV TR bipolar I or II disorder (recruited, at baseline, from a Lithium Clinic Program) and 26 were healthy matched controls. They were all assessed with a cognitive battery tapping into the main cognitive domains (executive function, attention, processing speed, verbal memory and visual memory) twice over a 6-year follow-up period. All patients were euthymic (Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression score lower than 8 and Young mania rating scale score lower than 6) for at least 3 months before both evaluations. At the end of follow-up, psychosocial functioning was also evaluated by means of the Functioning Assessment Short Test. RESULTS: Repeated-measures multivariate analysis of covariance showed that there were main effects of group in the executive domain, in the inhibition domain, in the processing speed domain, and in the verbal memory domain (p<0.04). Among the clinical factors, only longer illness duration was significantly related to slow processing (p=0.01), whereas strong relationships were observed between impoverished cognition along time and poorer psychosocial functioning (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Executive functioning, inhibition, processing speed and verbal memory were impaired in euthymic bipolar out-patients. Although cognitive deficits remained stable on average throughout the follow-up, they had enduring negative effects on psychosocial adaptation of patients.

Co-movements between US and UK stock prices: the roles of macroeconomic information and time-series varying conditional correlations

This paper provides evidence on the sources of co-movement in monthly US and UK stock price movements by investigating the role of macroeconomic and financial variables in a bivariate system with time-varying conditional correlations. Crosscountry communality in response is uncovered, with changes in the US Federal Funds rate, UK bond yields and oil prices having similar negative effects in both markets. Other variables also play a role, especially for the UK market. These effects do not, however, explain the marked increase in cross-market correlations observed from around 2000, which we attribute to time variation in the correlations of shocks to these markets. A regime-switching smooth transition model captures this time variation well and shows the correlations increase dramatically around 1999-2000. JEL classifications: C32, C51, G15 Keywords: international stock returns, DCC-GARCH model, smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH model, model evaluation.

Hàbits alimentaris en nens de 8 a 12 anys de la comarca d'Osona

Introducció: La dieta mediterrània és considerada un dels patrons alimentaris més saludables ja que diversos estudis epidemiològics mostren que protegeix front diverses malalties cròniques com ara les malalties cardiovasculars, la diabetis i alguns càncers. Malauradament al nostre país els patrons alimentaris estan canviant a conseqüència de la modernització de la societat i estan portant a l’allunyament del patró de dieta mediterrània. Això és especialment crític entre la població infantil i juvenil, fet que predisposa a que en un futur augmenti la prevalença de malalties cròniques entre la població adulta. Objectiu: avaluar els hàbits alimentaris i l’estat nutricional d’escolars de 8 a 12 anys de la comarca d’Osona. Mètodes: estudi de disseny observacional i transversal. La mostra estava constituïda per 191 escolars de 4rt i 5è d’ensenyança primària d’escoles de la comarca d’Osona. La informació sobre la dieta es va recollir a través d’una enquesta alimentària, un recordatori de 24 hores, un qüestionari de freqüència de consum alimentari i el test KIDMED. Les determinacions antropomètriques que es van realitzar van ser talla, pes, IMC (Índex de Massa Corporal), plec tricipital, perímetre braquial i perímetre abdominal. L’anàlisi estadística de totes les dades es va portar a terme mitjançant el programa estadístic SPSS per Windows versió 12.0. Resultats: quan es valora la qualitat de l’esmorzar, s’observa que només en el 16.8% dels casos la qualitat era bona, en el 68.6% dels casos la qualitat havia de millorar i en el 12.6% era de qualitat insuficient i en el 2.1% era de mala qualitat. També s’observa que la dieta que segueixen és desequilibrada quantitativament, concretament és baixa en hidrats de carboni, rica en greixos i lleugerament elevada en proteïnes. L’anàlisi qualitativa mostra que hi ha un molt baix consum de verdures i hortalisses i de fruita, mentre que s’arriba a les racions recomanades de carnis i d’olis i greixos. El test KIDMED mostra una puntuació mitjana de 7.21±1.96 punts, el que indica que la dieta de la població és de qualitat millorable. Pel que fa a l’estat nutricional s’observa que un 24,6% presenta valors de baix pes i un 17,8% sobrepès o obesitat, el que indica que un 42,4% de la població estudiada presenta un estat nutricional incorrecte. Conclusions: La dieta del col·lectiu estudiat s’allunya de les recomanacions de la SENC (Sociedad Española de Nutrición Comunitaria). Els resultats del test KIDMED indiquen que només un 44% de la població segueix un patró òptim de Dieta mediterrània i l’anàlisi de l’estat nutricional mostra que un 42,4% presenta un estat nutricional incorrecte, sigui per excés o per defecte de pes. Per tant, es fa necessari dissenyar estratègies d’educació alimentària adequades per millorar els hàbits alimentaris dels escolars i aconseguir en un futur un estat òptim de salut.

Effect of magnesium sulphate and L-tryptophan and genotype on the feed intake, behaviour and meat quality of pigs

Sixty-nine entire male pigs with different halothane genotype (homozygous halothane positive – nn –, n=36; and homozygous halothane negative – NN-, n=33) were fed with a supplementation of magnesium sulphate (Mg) and/or L-tryptophan (Trp) in the diet for 5 days before slaughter. Animals were housed individually and were submitted to stressful ante mortem conditions (mixed in the lorry according to treatments and transported 1 hour on rough roads). Individual feed intake was recorded during the 5-d treatment. At the abattoir, pig behaviour was assessed in the raceway to the stunning system and during the stunning period by exposure to CO2. Muscle pH, colour, water holding capacity, texture and cathepsin activities were determined to assess meat quality. The number of pigs with an individual feed intake lower than 2 kg/d was significantly different among diets (P&0.05; Control: 8.7 %; Mg&Trp: 43.5 %; Trp: 17.4 %) and they were considered to have inadequate supplement intake. During the ante mortem period, 15.2 % of pigs included in the experiment died, and this percentage decreased to 8.7 % in those pigs with a feed intake & 2kg/day, all of them from the stress-sensitive pigs (nn). In general, no differences were observed in the behaviour of pigs along the corridor leading to the stunning system and inside the CO2 stunning system. During the stunning procedure, Trp diet showed shorter periods of muscular excitation than control and Mg&Trp diets. The combination of a stressful ante mortem treatment and Mg&Trp supplementation led to carcasses with high incidence of severe skin lesions. Different meat quality results were found when considering all pigs or considering only those with adequate supplement intake. In this later case, Trp increased pH45 (6.15) vs Control diet (5.96) in the Longissimus thoracis (LT) muscle (P&0.05) and pH at 24h (Trp: 5.59 vs C: 5.47) led to a higher incidence of dark, firm and exudative (DFD) traits in SM muscle (P&0.05). Genotype affected negatively all the meat quality traits. Seventy-five percent of LT and 60.0 % of the SM muscles from nn pigs were classified as pale, soft and exudative (PSE), while none of the NN pigs showed these traits (P&0.0001). No significant differences were found between genotypes on the incidence of DFD meat. Due to the negative effects observed in the Mg&Trp group in feed intake and carcass quality, the utilization of a mixture of magnesium sulphate and tryptophan is not recommended.

Water Reallocation in the Input-Output Model

Water reallocation between economic agents has been –and continues to be- the subject of a considerable amount of research. This paper proposes a method for evaluating how water is reallocated within the economy in response to changes in final demand and changes in the technical water needs of activities and consumers. The empirical application, which is for the Catalan economy, shows important asymmetries in the effects that exogenous inflows and changes in water technical requirements cause on water reallocation. In the process of water distribution, exogenous inflows mostly benefit agriculture and damage private consumers. On the other hand, increases in technical water requirements have negative effects on agriculture and positive effects on the other production activities. The results of the study suggest that agriculture is an important activity not only in terms of water distribution but also in terms of water reallocation due to changes in final demand and technical water needs. Keywords: Water reallocation, water distribution, exogenous shock, technical water needs.

Estudi de les càrregues ambientals del compostatge casolà. Simulació d'un sistema de compostatge domèstic i determinació d'emissions de gasos contaminants

Aquest treball s’enfoca cap l’anàlisi de les emissions de gasos amb un potencial impacte negatiu sobre l’entorn que es poden emetre a l’atmosfera durant el compostatge casolà com són el metà i l’òxid nitrós pel seu paper de gasos d’efecte hivernacle i l’amoníac, però sense oblidar el seguiment dels paràmetres del procés en si i la determinació de la qualitat del compost produït. Durant poc més de 6 mesos s’ha simulat un sistema de compostatge casolà tal i com podria donar‐se en un domicili particular i s’ha confirmat la seva eficàcia en la reducció en pes del residu tractat així com l’obtenció d’un producte final altament estable i d’una qualitat més que acceptable. Pel que fa a les emissions de gasos, les quantitats determinades no són menyspreables. L’experiment s’ha realitzat per triplicat. Les emissions són molt erràtiques i no s’han trobat patrons clars en la seva evolució durant el procés de compostatge més enllà d’una certa correlació entre les emissions d’amoníac i la diferència de temperatures entre l’ambient i l’interior dels compostadors. Cal destacat un elevat grau de biaix en la determinació d’emissions gasoses a petita escala, com és el cas del compostatge casolà. Finalment constatar que la generació de lixiviats en el compostatge domèstic pot ser important donat el contingut en aigua de la matèria orgànica tractada a nivell casolà i el limitat accés a material estructurant sec que es té per a compensar‐les.

Recursos naturales y desarrollo en el Chad: ¿maldición de los recursos o inserción periférica?

El significativo incremento de las inversiones extranjeras en el sector extractivo africano en la última década, ha hecho renacer el debate acerca de los efectos sobre el desarrollo de las rentas generadas por este sector. Desde la teoría de la maldición de los recursos se argumenta que los efectos negativos sobre el desarrollo de estas rentas tienen que ver básicamente con disfunciones internas, soslayando los elementos y actores externos que dan forma e influyen en éstas. El caso del Chad, país productor de petróleo desde 2003 con el apoyo del Banco Mundial, es presentado y analizado en este artículo, llegando a la conclusión de que el análisis de la inserción periférica es crucial para comprender las disfunciones generadas por la renta petrolera en el país.

Características clínicas y tratamiento de la ansiedad académica y ante los exámenes como fobia específica de tipo situacional

L'ansietat acadèmica i davant els exàmens com a fòbia específica de tipus situacional és un trastorn infantil i juvenil d'efectes pertorbadors i negatius que repercuteixen sobre la salut mental i emocional, el rendiment acadèmic i la integració social de l'estudiant que la pateix. En aquest treball s'especifiquen les seves característiques clíniques. Així mateix, s'inclou un cas clínic d'un adolescent de 14 anys que patia d'aquest trastorn fòbic escolar, acompanyat de baixa autoestima personal i dificultats d'adaptació amb el seu grup-classe. Se li va aplicar una avaluació i tractament de tall cognitiu-conductual que ha tingut com a finalitat la superació de la fòbia, i la millora del seu rendiment acadèmic i social. D'entre totes les eines terapèutiques utilitzades destaquen: l'exposició en viu, i l'aprenentatge i utilització de mecanismes de control de l'ansietat (la relaxació Jacobson i la reestructuració cognitiva). Finalment, assenyalar que aquesta intervenció terapèutica ha estat possible gràcies a la participació coordinada i cooperant de l'equip interdisciplinari.