Spanish pension system: population aging and immigration policy

There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of setting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur deficits until 2018, from then deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029

A simple model of aggregate pension expenditure

This paper develops a simple model that can be used to analyze the long-term sustainability of the contributive pension system and the steady-state response of pension expenditure to changes in some key demographic and economic variables, in the characteristics of the average pensioner and in the parameters that describe how pensions are calculated in Spain as a function of workers' Social Security contribution histories.

Study of chemical modification of alkaline lignin by the glyoxalation reaction

In this study, glyoxalated alkaline lignins with a non-volatile and non-toxic aldehyde, which can be obtained from several natural resources, namely glyoxal, were prepared and characterized for its use in wood adhesives. The preparation method consisted of the reaction of lignin with glyoxal under an alkaline medium. The influence of reaction conditions such as the molar ratio of sodium hydroxide-to-lignin and reaction time were studied relative to the properties of the prepared adducts. The analytical techniques used were FTIR and 1H-NMR spectroscopies, gel permeation chromatography (GPC), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), and thermogravimetric analysis (TGA). Results from both the FTIR and 1H-NMR spectroscopies showed that the amount of introduced aliphatic hydroxyl groups onto the lignin molecule increased with increasing reaction time and reached a maximum value at 10 h, and after they began to decrease. The molecular weights remained unchanged until 10 h of reaction time, and then started to increase, possibly due to the repolymerization reactions. DSC analysis showed that the glass transition temperature (Tg) decreased with the introduction of glyoxal onto the lignin molecule due to the increase in free volume of the lignin molecules. TGA analysis showed that the thermal stability of glyoxalated lignin is not influenced and remained suitable for wood adhesives. Compared to the original lignin, the improved lignin is reactive and a suitable raw material for adhesive formula

Modification of the Perrine-Baum diagram to improve the calculation of high voltage electric lines

Through the history of Electrical Engineering education, vectorial and phasorial diagrams have been used as a fundamental learning tool. At present, computational power has replaced them by long data lists, the result of solving equation systems by means of numerical methods. In this sense, diagrams have been shifted to an academic background and although theoretically explained, they are not used in a practical way within specific examples. This fact may be against the understanding of the complex behavior of the electrical power systems by students. This article proposes a modification of the classical Perrine-Baum diagram construction to allowing both a more practical representation and a better understanding of the behavior of a high-voltage electric line under different levels of load. This modification allows, at the same time, the forecast of the obsolescence of this behavior and line’s loading capacity. Complementary, we evaluate the impact of this tool in the learning process showing comparative undergraduate results during three academic years

Evaluating Spanish pension expenditure under alternativa reform scenario

In this paper we evaluate the quantitative impact that a number ofalternative reform scenarios may have on the total expenditure for publicpensions in Spain. Our quantitative findings can be summarized in twosentences. For all the reforms considered, the financial impact of themechanical effect (change in benefits) is order of magnitudes larger thanthe behavioral impact or change in behavior. For the two Spanish reforms,we find once again that their effect on the outstanding liability of theSpanish Social Security System is essentially negligible: neither themechanical nor the behavioral effects amount to much for the 1997 reform,and amount to very little for the 2002 amendment.

Pension plan funding and stock market efficiency

The paper argues that the market signifficantly overvalues firms with severely underfunded pension plans. These companies earn lower stock returns than firms with healthier pension plans for at least five years after the first emergence of the underfunding. The low returns are not explained by risk, price momentum, earnings momentum, or accruals. Further, the evidence suggests that investors do not anticipate the impact of the pension liability on future earnings, and they are surprised when the negative implications of underfunding ultimately materialize. Finally, underfunded firms have poor operating performance, and they earn low returns, although they are value companies.

Life-time redistribution effects of the Spanish public pension system

The paper analyses the inter and intragenerational redistribution effects ofthe public pensions system in Spain. This is achieved by first comparing the expected present value of life-time income transfers (PVT) and internalrates of return (IRR) of different population cohorts. Secondly, we study the intragenerational aspects of the Spanish public pensions by calculating PVTs the IRRs for workers of different categories, grouped by earnings, gender and marital status.The results obtained show the nature of the important intergenerational effects of the Social Security System in Spain. The oldest 1935 cohort clearlybenefits in relation to the youngest 1965 cohort. This is basically due to thegap between current wages and the contribution bases established in the 60s and 70s in Spain during the early stages of the Social Security System, and to the worsening shortfall in Social Security funding, combined with the longer of life expectancy.In addition, intragenerational effects exist by income levels. For contributors who pay between the minimum and the maximum allowable contribution bases, net transfers and rates of return are higher in actuarial terms for high incomecontributors. The social security `dealï is again more profitable for highincome individuals since they contribute at the maximum basis, with respect tolow income contributors at the minimum basis. This is due to the late entry and a higher survival rate for high income contributors.The system tends to favour women, given that they generally live longer than men and this factor is only partially offset by their lower wages. Married males, given the fact that they have longer life expectancy and leave a pension to their spouse, obtain higher present net transfers too than do single contributors.We close the paper with some comments on the slight impact and moderate effects of proposals for Social Security reform and on how these may change the previously observed redistribution effects.

Portable alphas from pension mispricing

We introduce a new dynamic trading strategy based on the systematic misspricing of U.S. companies sponsoring Defined Benefit pension plans. This portfolio produces an average return of 1.51% monthly between 1989 and 2004, with a Sharpe Ratio of 0.26. The returns of the strategy are not explained by those of primary assets. These returns are not related to those of benchmarks in the alternative investments industry either. Hence, we are in the presence of a "pure alpha" strategy that can be ported into a large variety of portfolios to significantly enhance their performance.

Beyond the Toledo agreement : the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform

The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Working within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that maintaining the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176 percent of base year GDP. As the recent reform measures have been insufficient to achieve the sustainability of the current pension system, we also analyse the impact of alternative reform strategies. Within the current pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the original spirit of the Toledo Agreement is shown to yield and intergenerationally more balanced outcome,than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, we examine the generational impact of a move toward a partially funded pension system which might restore theintergenerational balance

Transitional effects of a pension system change in Spain

This paper studies the output effects, transition costs and the change in pension benefits derived from the substitution of the current unfunded pension system by a fully funded pension system financed through mandatory savings.These effects are estimated by using reduced versions of the neoclassical and endogenous growth frameworks. Because of the greater capital accumulation during the transition phase, final output increases by 23,6% (neoclassicalframework); and a 24,5-31,5% (endogenous growth framework). The initial revenue loss for the government would represent a 4,8% of the GDP, raising very slowly during the transition period. Given the new growth rates, rates of return ofphysical capital, and financial intermediation costs, we have that the capitalization pension benefits obtained by all 30-contribution-year worker would be more than twice than those that guarantee the financial sustainability of thepublic pension system

Transitional effects of a pension system change in Spain

This paper studies the output effects, transition costs and the change in pension benefits derived from the substitution of the current unfunded pension system by a fully funded pension system financed through mandatory savings.These effects are estimated by using reduced versions of the neoclassical and endogenous growth frameworks. Because of the greater capital accumulation during the transition phase, final output increases by 23,6% (neoclassicalframework); and a 24,5-31,5% (endogenous growth framework). The initial revenue loss for the government would represent a 4,8% of the GDP, raising very slowly during the transition period. Given the new growth rates, rates of return ofphysical capital, and financial intermediation costs, we have that the capitalization pension benefits obtained by all 30-contribution-year worker would be more than twice than those that guarantee the financial sustainability of thepublic pension system

Beyond the Toledo agreement : the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform

The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Working within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that maintaining the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176 percent of base year GDP. As the recent reform measures have been insufficient to achieve the sustainability of the current pension system, we also analyse the impact of alternative reform strategies. Within the current pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the original spirit of the Toledo Agreement is shown to yield and intergenerationally more balanced outcome,than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, we examine the generational impact of a move toward a partially funded pension system which might restore theintergenerational balance

Efficient self-synchronised blind audio watermarking system based on time domain and FFT amplitude modification

Many audio watermarking schemes divide the audio signal into several blocks such that part of the watermark is embedded into each of them. One of the key issues in these block-oriented watermarking schemes is to preserve the synchronisation, i.e. to recover the exact position of each block in the mark recovery process. In this paper, a novel time domain synchronisation technique is presented together with a new blind watermarking scheme which works in the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT or FFT) domain. The combined scheme provides excellent imperceptibility results whilst achieving robustness against typical attacks. Furthermore, the execution of the scheme is fast enough to be used in real-time applications. The excellent transparency of the embedding algorithm makes it particularly useful for professional applications, such as the embedding of monitoring information in broadcast signals. The scheme is also compared with some recent results of the literature.

NAD+-dependent post-translational modification of Escherichia coli glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase

Glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase (GAPDH) is a multifunctional housekeeping protein reported to be a target of several covalent modifications in many organisms. In a previous study we showed that enterohemorragic (EHEC) and enteropathogenic (EPEC) Escherichia coli strains secrete GAPDH and that this protein binds to human plasminogen and fibrinogen. Here we report that GAPDH of these pathogens is ADP-ribosylated either in the cytoplasm or in the extracellular medium. GAPDH catalyzes its own modification which involves Cys149 at the active site. ADP-ribosylation of extracellular GAPDH may play important role in the interaction with the host as it has been proposed in other pathogens.

La réciprocité comme stratégie pour gérer la faim et la précarité alimentaire

Le texte littéraire, examiné et contextualisé historiquement, offre des voies de compréhension des stratégies mises en oeuvre par une classe sociale afin de se perpétuer en période de crise. Ainsi, en considérant spécifiquement certaines des figures de la réciprocité, nous observons l’importance, non seulement des liens sociaux qui favorisent la reproduction sociale, mais aussi celle de l’alimentation comme moteur d’établissement de ces liens.