On dictatorship, economic development and stability

This paper aims to account for varying economic performances and political stability under dictatorship. We argue that economic welfare and social order are the contemporary relevant factors of political regimes' stability. Societies with low natural level of social order tend to tolerate predatory behavior from dictators in exchange of a provision of civil peace. The fear of anarchy may explain why populations are locked in the worst dictatorships. In contrast, in societies enjoying a relative natural civil peace, dictatorship is less likely to be predatory because low economic welfare may destabilize it.

Dualizing complexes-The modern way

We give a survey of some recent results on Grothendieck duality. We begin with a brief reminder of the classical theory, and then launch into an overview of some of the striking developments since 2005.

CODAMAT: a modern analogue techinque for compositional data

The quantitative estimation of Sea Surface Temperatures from fossils assemblages is afundamental issue in palaeoclimatic and paleooceanographic investigations. TheModern Analogue Technique, a widely adopted method based on direct comparison offossil assemblages with modern coretop samples, was revised with the aim ofconforming it to compositional data analysis. The new CODAMAT method wasdeveloped by adopting the Aitchison metric as distance measure. Modern coretopdatasets are characterised by a large amount of zeros. The zero replacement was carriedout by adopting a Bayesian approach to the zero replacement, based on a posteriorestimation of the parameter of the multinomial distribution. The number of modernanalogues from which reconstructing the SST was determined by means of a multipleapproach by considering the Proxies correlation matrix, Standardized Residual Sum ofSquares and Mean Squared Distance. This new CODAMAT method was applied to theplanktonic foraminiferal assemblages of a core recovered in the Tyrrhenian Sea.Kew words: Modern analogues, Aitchison distance, Proxies correlation matrix,Standardized Residual Sum of Squares

Globalization and the Symphony of the New (Post-modern) World: From Westphalia to Maastricht…passing by Washington DC

Taking on the challenge of understanding and explaining the Symphony of (today’s) New World in realistic terms (not realist), this essay aims to analyse the Post-Cold war era by devising a multi-conceptual framework that combines different theoretical contributions not yet linked in a fully explanatory way. This paper suggests two inter-related analytical contexts (or background melodies) to understand Dvorak´s "New World”. First, the socio-economic structural context that falls under the controversial category of Globalization and, second, the post-modern political structural context that is built on Robert Cooper’s threefold analysis (Pre-modern, Modern and Post-modern) of today’s world [Cooper, R: 1997, 1999]. Lastly, the closing movement (allegro con fuoco) enters the normative arena to assess American foreign policy options in the light of the theoretical framework devised in the first part of the essay.

Neogene antecedents of the modern human hand and its relation to bipedalism

El present projecte s'ha dut a terme a l'American Museum of Natural History (AMNH, New York) entre el 31 de Desembre de 2010 i el 30 de Desembre de 2012. L'objectiu del projecte era elucidar la història evolutiva de la mà humana: traçar els canvis evolutius en la seva forma i proporcions que van propiciar la seva estructura moderna que permet als humans manipular amb precisió. El treball realitzat ha inclòs recol•lecció de dades i anàlisis, redacció de resultats i formació en mètodes analítics específics. Durant aquest temps, l'autor a completat la seva de base de dades existent en mesures lineals de la mà a hominoides. També s'han agafat dades del peu; d'aquesta forma ara mateix es compta amb una base de dades amb més de 500 individus, amb més de 200 mesures per cada un. També s'han agafat dades en tres imensions utilitzant un làser escàner. S'han après tècniques de morfometria geomètrica 3D directament dels pioners al camp a l'AMNH. Com a resultat d'aquesta feina s'han produït 10 resums (publicats a congressos internacionals) i 9 manuscrits (molts d'ells ja publicats a revistes internacionals) amb resultats de gran rellevància: La mà humana posseeix unes proporcions relativament primitives, que són més similars a les proporciones que tenien els hominoides fòssils del Miocè que no pas a la dels grans antropomorfs actuals. Els darrers tenen unes mans allargades amb un polzes molt curts que reflexen l'ús de la mà com a eina de suspensió sota les branques. En canvi, els hominoides del Miocè tenien unes mans relativament curtes amb un polze llarg que feien servir per estabilitzar el seu pes quan caminaven per sobre de les branques. Una vegada els primers homínids van aparèixer al final del Miocè (fa uns 6 Ma) i van començar a fer servir el bipedisme com a mitjà més comú de locomoció, les seves mans van ser "alliberades" de les seves funcions locomotores. La selecció natural—ara només treballant en la manipulació—va convertir les proporcions ja existents de la mà d'aquests primats en l'òrgan manipulatori que representa la mà humana avui dia.

Transmit diversity vs. spatial multiplexing in modern MIMO systems

A contemporary perspective on the tradeoff between transmit antenna diversity andspatial multiplexing is provided. It is argued that, in the context of most modern wirelesssystems and for the operating points of interest, transmission techniques that utilizeall available spatial degrees of freedom for multiplexing outperform techniques that explicitlysacrifice spatial multiplexing for diversity. In the context of such systems, therefore,there essentially is no decision to be made between transmit antenna diversity and spatialmultiplexing in MIMO communication. Reaching this conclusion, however, requires thatthe channel and some key system features be adequately modeled and that suitable performancemetrics be adopted; failure to do so may bring about starkly different conclusions. Asa specific example, this contrast is illustrated using the 3GPP Long-Term Evolution systemdesign.

De-hyping transmit diversity in modern MIMO cellular systems

A contemporary perspective on the tradeoff between transmit antenna diversity and spatial multi-plexing is provided. It is argued that, in the context of modern cellular systems and for the operating points of interest, transmission techniques that utilize all available spatial degrees of freedom for multiplexingoutperform techniques that explicitly sacrifice spatialmultiplexing for diversity. Reaching this conclusion, however, requires that the channel and some key system features be adequately modeled; failure to do so may bring about starkly different conclusions. As a specific example, this contrast is illustrated using the 3GPP Long-Term Evolution system design.

Modern Perspectives on Fiscal Stabilization Policies

The present paper describes recent research on two central themes of Keynes General Theory: (i) the social waste associated with recessions, and (ii) the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. The paper also discusses some evidence on the extent to which fiscal policy has been used as a stabilizing tool in industrial economies over the past two decades.

The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

Modern perspectives on stabilization policies

The present paper describes recent research on two central themes of Keynes General Theory: (i) the social waste associated with recessions, and (ii) the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a stabilization tool. The paper also discusses some evidence on the extent to which fiscal policy has been used as a stabilizing tool in industrial economies over the past two decades.

Modern energy consumption and economic modernisation in Latin America and the Caribbean between 1890 and 1925

In the absence of comparable macroeconomic indicators for most of the Latin Americaneconomies before the 1930s, the apparent consumption of energy is used in this paper as a proxyof the degree of modernisation of Latin America and the Caribbean. This paper presents anestimate of the apparent consumption per head of modern energies (coal, petroleum andhydroelectricity) for 30 countries of Latin American and the Caribbean for 1890 to 1925,multiplying the number of countries for which energy consumption estimates were previouslyavailable. As a result, the paper provides the basis for a quantitative comparative analysis ofmodernisation performance beyond the few countries for which historical national accounts areavailable in Latin America.

Book production and the onset of modern economic growth

Endogenous growth theory suggests that human capital formation plays a significant role for the wealth and poverty of nations. In contrast to previous studies which denied the role of human capital as a crucial determinant of for really long-term growth, we confirm its importance. Indicators of human capital like literacy rates are lacking for the period of 1450-1913; hence, we use per capita book production as a proxy for advanced literacy skills. This study explains how, and to what extent, growth disparities are a function of human capital formation.

Why did modern trade fairs appear?

According to our interpretation, modern trade fairs started in Europe during the FirstWorld War and in its immediate aftermath. With the closing of trade movements duringthe war, many cities had to resort to the old medieval tradition of providing especialpermits to traders to guarantee them personal protection during their trade meetings.During the tough post war crisis many more cities typically industrial districts-discovered in the creation of trade fairs a powerful competitive tool to attract markettransactions. We compare these developments with the remote origins of fairs, as, inboth cases, trade fair development is a reaction to the closing of free markets under thepressure of political violence.