Analysis and Monte Carlo simulations of a model for the spread of infectious diseases in heterogeneous metapopulations

We present a study of the continuous-time equations governing the dynamics of a susceptible infected-susceptible model on heterogeneous metapopulations. These equations have been recently proposed as an alternative formulation for the spread of infectious diseases in metapopulations in a continuous-time framework. Individual-based Monte Carlo simulations of epidemic spread in uncorrelated networks are also performed revealing a good agreement with analytical predictions under the assumption of simultaneous transmission or recovery and migration processes

A proposal for a new specification for a conditionally heteroskedastic variance model: the Quadratic Moving-Average Conditional Heteroskedasticity and an application to the D. Mark-U.S. dollar Exchange Rate

Ever since the appearance of the ARCH model [Engle(1982a)], an impressive array of variance specifications belonging to the same class of models has emerged [i.e. Bollerslev's (1986) GARCH; Nelson's (1990) EGARCH]. This recent domain has achieved very successful developments. Nevertheless, several empirical studies seem to show that the performance of such models is not always appropriate [Boulier(1992)]. In this paper we propose a new specification: the Quadratic Moving Average Conditional heteroskedasticity model. Its statistical properties, such as the kurtosis and the symmetry, as well as two estimators (Method of Moments and Maximum Likelihood) are studied. Two statistical tests are presented, the first one tests for homoskedasticity and the second one, discriminates between ARCH and QMACH specification. A Monte Carlo study is presented in order to illustrate some of the theoretical results. An empirical study is undertaken for the DM-US exchange rate.

On a size-structured two-phase population model with infinite states-at-birth

In this work we introduce and analyze a linear size-structured population model with infinite states-at-birth. We model the dynamics of a population in which individuals have two distinct life-stages: an “active” phase when individuals grow, reproduce and die and a second “resting” phase when individuals only grow. Transition between these two phases depends on individuals’ size. First we show that the problem is governed by a positive quasicontractive semigroup on the biologically relevant state space. Then we investigate, in the framework of the spectral theory of linear operators, the asymptotic behavior of solutions of the model. We prove that the associated semigroup has, under biologically plausible assumptions, the property of asynchronous exponential growth.

Aprenentatge interactiu a través de l'experimentació: un laboratori virtual de psicologia bàsica

El Laboratori Virtual de Psicologia Bàsica (LVPB) és una eina que pretén aprofitar les noves tecnologies per donar un nou enfocament al procés d’aprenentatge dels processos psicològics bàsics. Amb el LVPB s’acompanya a l’estudiant en un recorregut a través d’experiments que s’han convertit en clàssics de la Psicologia Cognitiva amb l’objectiu d’assolir coneixements relacionats amb els processos cognitius a partir de la pròpia experiència. La plataforma conté experiments provinents de l’estudi de l’atenció, l’emoció, el llenguatge, la memòria, la motivació, el pensament i la percepció.

Laboratori Virtual de Psicologia Bàsica

El Laboratori Virtual de Psicologia Bàsica (LVPB) és una eina que acompanya a l’estudiant en un recorregut a través d’experiments que s’han convertit en clàssics de la Psicologia Cognitiva. La plataforma reprodueix experiments provinents de l’estudi de l’atenció, l’emoció, el llenguatge, la memòria, la motivació, el pensament i la percepció. En cada experiment, el LVPB presenta un text introductori amb alguns articles de referència on es van proposar per primera vegada aquests experiments. El LVPB es basa en la plataforma d’e-learning Moodle, el que permet que cada estudiant tingui el seu propi espai en el qual guardar les dades, els resultats i les anàlisis que hagi realitzat. Tota la interacció amb el sistema queda enregistrada i pot ésser consultada tant per l’estudiant com pel seu professor en qualsevol moment. Això permet que el LVPB pugui ser utilitzat també com a eina d’avaluació per part del professor. La plataforma es troba disponible en la següent adreça: http://psicovirtual.uab.es/lvpb

System identification using a linear combination of cumulant slices

In this paper we develop a new linear approach to identify the parameters of a moving average (MA) model from the statistics of the output. First, we show that, under some constraints, the impulse response of the system can be expressed as a linear combination of cumulant slices. Then, thisresult is used to obtain a new well-conditioned linear methodto estimate the MA parameters of a non-Gaussian process. Theproposed method presents several important differences withexisting linear approaches. The linear combination of slices usedto compute the MA parameters can be constructed from dif-ferent sets of cumulants of different orders, providing a generalframework where all the statistics can be combined. Further-more, it is not necessary to use second-order statistics (the autocorrelation slice), and therefore the proposed algorithm stillprovides consistent estimates in the presence of colored Gaussian noise. Another advantage of the method is that while mostlinear methods developed so far give totally erroneous estimates if the order is overestimated, the proposed approach doesnot require a previous estimation of the filter order. The simulation results confirm the good numerical conditioning of thealgorithm and the improvement in performance with respect to existing methods.

Structural changes induced by daily music listening in the recovering brain after middle cerebral artery stroke: a voxel-based morphometry study

Music is a highly complex and versatile stimulus for the brain that engages many temporal, frontal, parietal, cerebellar, and subcortical areas involved in auditory, cognitive, emotional, and motor processing. Regular musical activities have been shown to effectively enhance the structure and function of many brain areas, making music a potential tool also in neurological rehabilitation. In our previous randomized controlled study, we found that listening to music on a daily basis can improve cognitive recovery and improve mood after an acute middle cerebral artery stroke. Extending this study, a voxel-based morphometry (VBM) analysis utilizing cost function masking was performed on the acute and 6-month post-stroke stage structural magnetic resonance imaging data of the patients (n = 49) who either listened to their favorite music [music group (MG), n = 16] or verbal material [audio book group (ABG), n = 18] or did not receive any listening material [control group (CG), n = 15] during the 6-month recovery period. Although all groups showed significant gray matter volume (GMV) increases from the acute to the 6-month stage, there was a specific network of frontal areas [left and right superior frontal gyrus (SFG), right medial SFG] and limbic areas [left ventral/subgenual anterior cingulate cortex (SACC) and right ventral striatum (VS)] in patients with left hemisphere damage in which the GMV increases were larger in the MG than in the ABG and in the CG. Moreover, the GM reorganization in the frontal areas correlated with enhanced recovery of verbal memory, focused attention, and language skills, whereas the GM reorganization in the SACC correlated with reduced negative mood. This study adds on previous results, showing that music listening after stroke not only enhances behavioral recovery, but also induces fine-grained neuroanatomical changes in the recovering brain.

Effect of cattle on Salmonella carriage, diversity and antimicrobial resistance in free-ranging wild boar (Sus scrofa) in northeastern Spain

Salmonella is distributed worldwide and is a pathogen of economic and public health importance. As a multi-host pathogen with a long environmental persistence, it is a suitable model for the study of wildlife-livestock interactions. In this work, we aim to explore the spill-over of Salmonella between free-ranging wild boar and livestock in a protected natural area in NE Spain and the presence of antimicrobial resistance. Salmonella prevalence, serotypes and diversity were compared between wild boars, sympatric cattle and wild boars from cattle-free areas. The effect of age, sex, cattle presence and cattle herd size on Salmonella probability of infection in wild boars was explored by means of Generalized Linear Models and a model selection based on the Akaike’s Information Criterion. Prevalence was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle (35.67%, CI 95% 28.19–43.70) than in wild boar from cattle-free areas (17.54%, CI 95% 8.74–29.91). Probability of a wild boar being a Salmonella carrier increased with cattle herd size but decreased with the host age. Serotypes Meleagridis, Anatum and Othmarschen were isolated concurrently from cattle and sympatric wild boars. Apart from serotypes shared with cattle, wild boars appear to have their own serotypes, which are also found in wild boars from cattle-free areas (Enteritidis, Mikawasima, 4:b:- and 35:r:z35). Serotype richness (diversity) was higher in wild boars co-habiting with cattle, but evenness was not altered by the introduction of serotypes from cattle. The finding of a S. Mbandaka strain resistant to sulfamethoxazole, streptomycin and chloramphenicol and a S. Enteritidis strain resistant to ciprofloxacin and nalidixic acid in wild boars is cause for public health concern.

Estudio, análisis y mejora de un sistema de gestión de expedientes

El proyecto consistió en el estudio, propuesta y realización de una serie de mejoras derivadas del análisis de un sistema de gestión de expedientes. El sistema analizado es SEDAS, un producto de gestión de los procesos de recobro de deudas desarrollado por Steria. Las mejoras se concentraron en la parametrización y mejora de diversos apartados tales como el modelo de datos, el sistema de generación de informes o la interfaz gráfica.

Factores de rendimiento en entornos multicore

Este documento refleja el estudio de investigación para la detección de factores que afectan al rendimiento en entornos multicore. Debido a la gran diversidad de arquitecturas multicore se ha definido un marco de trabajo, que consiste en la adopción de una arquitectura específica, un modelo de programación basado en paralelismo de datos, y aplicaciones del tipo Single Program Multiple Data. Una vez definido el marco de trabajo, se han evaluado los factores de rendimiento con especial atención al modelo de programación. Por este motivo, se ha analizado la librería de threads y la API OpenMP para detectar aquellas funciones sensibles de ser sintonizadas al permitir un comportamiento adaptativo de la aplicación al entorno, y que dependiendo de su adecuada utilización han de mejorar el rendimiento de la aplicación.

Modeling of hybrid systems by piecewise decomposition

Piecewise linear models systems arise as mathematical models of systems in many practical applications, often from linearization for nonlinear systems. There are two main approaches of dealing with these systems according to their continuous or discrete-time aspects. We propose an approach which is based on the state transformation, more particularly the partition of the phase portrait in different regions where each subregion is modeled as a two-dimensional linear time invariant system. Then the Takagi-Sugeno model, which is a combination of local model is calculated. The simulation results show that the Alpha partition is well-suited for dealing with such a system

CAV2 vector gene transfer into central nervious System

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada al Institut de Génétique Moléculaire de Montpellier, França, entre 2010 i 2012. En aquest projecte s’ha avaluat les avantatges dels vectors adenovirals canins tipus 2 (CAV2) com a vectors de transferència gènica al sistema nerviós central (SNC) en un model primat no-humà i en un model caní del síndrome de Sly (mucopolisacaridosis tipus 7, MPS VII), malaltia monogènica que cursa amb neurodegeneració. En una primera part del projecte s’ha avaluat la biodistribució, l’eficàcia i la durada de l’expressió del transgen en un model primat no humà, (Microcebus murinus). Com ha vector s’ha utilitzat un CAV2 de primera generació que expressa la proteïna verda fluorescent (CAVGFP). Els resultats aportats en aquesta memòria demostren que en primats no humans, com en d’altres espècies testades anteriorment per l’equip de l’EJ Kremer, la injecció intracerebral de CAV2 resulta en una extensa transducció del SNC, siguent les neurones i els precursors neuronals les cèl•lules preferencialment transduïdes. Els vectors canins, servint-se de vesícules intracel•lulars són transportats, majoritàriament, des de les sinapsis cap al soma neuronal, aquest transport intracel•lular permet una extensa transducció del SNC a partir d’una única injecció intracerebral dels vectors virals. En una segona part d’aquest projecte s’ha avaluat l’ús terapèutic dels CAV2. S’ha injectat un vector helper-dependent que expressa el gen la b-glucuronidasa i el gen de la proteïna verda fluorescent (HD-RIGIE), en el SNC del model caní del síndrome de Sly (MPS VII). La biodistribució i la eficàcia terapèutica han estat avaluades. Els nivells d’activitat enzimàtica en animals malalts injectats amb el vector terapèutic va arribar a valors similars als dels animals no afectes. A més a més s’ha observat una reducció en la quantitat dels GAGs acumulats en les cèl•lules dels animals malalts tractats amb el vector terapèutic, demostrant la potencialitat terapèutica dels CAV2 per a malalties que afecten al SNC. Els resultats aportats en aquest treball ens permeten dir que els CAV2 són unes bones eines terapèutiques per al tractament de malalties que afecten al SNC.

Heterogeneity and event dependence in the analysis of sickness absence

Sickness absence (SA) is an important social, economic and public health issue. Identifying and understanding the determinants, whether biological, regulatory or, health services-related, of variability in SA duration is essential for better management of SA. The conditional frailty model (CFM) is useful when repeated SA events occur within the same individual, as it allows simultaneous analysis of event dependence and heterogeneity due to unknown, unmeasured, or unmeasurable factors. However, its use may encounter computational limitations when applied to very large data sets, as may frequently occur in the analysis of SA duration. To overcome the computational issue, we propose a Poisson-based conditional frailty model (CFPM) for repeated SA events that accounts for both event dependence and heterogeneity. To demonstrate the usefulness of the model proposed in the SA duration context, we used data from all non-work-related SA episodes that occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in 2007, initiated by either a diagnosis of neoplasm or mental and behavioral disorders. As expected, the CFPM results were very similar to those of the CFM for both diagnosis groups. The CPU time for the CFPM was substantially shorter than the CFM. The CFPM is an suitable alternative to the CFM in survival analysis with recurrent events,especially with large databases.

Museos y Content Marketing. Hacia un nuevo modelo de generación de contenidos culturales

Los museos vienen aplicando, desde hace ya bastantes décadas, la teoría y práctica de la difusión cultural para generar contenidos culturales que faciliten la accesibilidad cognitiva y emocional de los visitantes a sus colecciones. Últimamente están apareciendo campañas y acciones de comunicación comercial que, lideradas desde los departamentos de comunicación de los museos, están creando unos contenidos cuyo objetivo final es publicitario, sirviéndose para ello de la técnica del Content Marketing. Este artículo presenta este nuevo modelo de generación de contenidos, mediante el análisis de algunos casos internacionales en los que se ha aplicado de forma exitosa.