On the timing of balance of payments crises: Disaggregated information and interest rate policy

This paper proposes a dynamic framework to study the timing of balance of paymentscrises. The model incorporates two main ingredients: (i) investors have private information; (ii)investors interact in a dynamic setting, weighing the high returns on domestic assets against the incentives to pull out before the devaluation. The model shows that the presence of disaggregated information delays the onset of BOP crises, giving rise to discrete devaluations. It also shows that high interest rates can be eective in delaying and possibly avoiding the abandonment of the peg. The optimal policy is to raise interest rates sharply as fundamentals become very weak. However, this policy is time inconsistent, suggesting a role for commitment devices such as currency boards or IMF pressure.

Study of Johnsons Glacier (Livingston Island, Antarctica) by means of shallow ice cores and their tephra and by analysis of 137Cs content

With the aim of monitoring the dynamics of the Livingston Island ice cap, the Departament de Geodinàmica i Geofísica of the Universitat de Barcelona began ye a r ly surveys in the austral summer of 1994-95 on Johnsons Glacier. During this field campaign 10 shallow ice cores were sampled with a manual ve rtical ice-core drilling machine. The objectives were: i) to detect the tephra layer accumulated on the glacier surface, attributed to the 1970 Deception Island pyroclastic eruption, today interstratified; ii) to verify wheter this layer might serve as a reference level; iii) to measure the 1 3 7Cs radio-isotope concentration accumulated in the 1965 snow stratum; iv) to use the isochrone layer as a mean of verifying the age of the 1970 tephra layer; and, v) to calculate both the equilibrium line of the glacier and average mass balance over the last 28 years (1965-1993). The stratigr a p hy of the cores, their cumulative density curves and the isothermal ice temperatures recorded confi rm that Johnsons Glacier is a temperate glacier. Wi n d, solar radiation heating and liquid water are the main agents controlling the ve rtical and horizontal redistribution of the volcanic and cryoclastic particles that are sedimented and remain interstratified within the g l a c i e r. It is because of this redistribution that the 1970 tephra layer does not always serve as a ve ry good reference level. The position of the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) in 1993, obtained by the 1 3 7Cs spectrometric analysis, varies from about 200 m a.s.l. to 250 m a.s.l. This indicates a rising trend in the equilibrium line altitude from the beginning of the 1970s to the present day. The va rying slope orientation of Johnsons Glacier relative to the prevailing NE wind gives rise to large local differences in snow accumulation, which locally modifies the equilibrium line altitude. In the cores studied, 1 3 7Cs appears to be associated with the 1970 tephra laye r. This indicates an intense ablation episode throughout the sampled area (at least up to 330 m a.s.l), which probably occurred synchronically to the 1970 tephra deposition or later. A rough estimate of the specific mass balance reveals a considerable accumulation gradient related to the increase with altitude.

The role of attention in multisensory integration processes

Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of Queensland, Australia, between June to October 2007. The integration of sensory information coming from different modalities is a subjectively effortless and automatic process. However, recent findings converge on the idea that there might be some limitations on how much multisensory information can our brains integrate at a given moment. The overall objective of this research visit was to expand and reinforce our current line of research addressing the role that attention plays on the mechanisms responsible for multisensory integration. There is also a critical review of the literature as well as a list of research questions of potential interest in the area of the neuropsychology of multisensory attention.

The problem of the competitiveness of nuclear energy: a biophysical explanation

In this study I try to explain the systemic problem of the low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy for the production of electricity by carrying out a biophysical analysis of its production process. Given the fact that neither econometric approaches nor onedimensional methods of energy analyses are effective, I introduce the concept of biophysical explanation as a quantitative analysis capable of handling the inherent ambiguity associated with the concept of energy. In particular, the quantities of energy, considered as relevant for the assessment, can only be measured and aggregated after having agreed on a pre-analytical definition of a grammar characterizing a given set of finite transformations. Using this grammar it becomes possible to provide a biophysical explanation for the low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy in the production of electricity. When comparing the various unit operations of the process of production of electricity with nuclear energy to the analogous unit operations of the process of production of fossil energy, we see that the various phases of the process are the same. The only difference is related to characteristics of the process associated with the generation of heat which are completely different in the two systems. Since the cost of production of fossil energy provides the base line of economic competitiveness of electricity, the (lack of) economic competitiveness of the production of electricity from nuclear energy can be studied, by comparing the biophysical costs associated with the different unit operations taking place in nuclear and fossil power plants when generating process heat or net electricity. In particular, the analysis focuses on fossil-fuel requirements and labor requirements for those phases that both nuclear plants and fossil energy plants have in common: (i) mining; (ii) refining/enriching; (iii) generating heat/electricity; (iv) handling the pollution/radioactive wastes. By adopting this approach, it becomes possible to explain the systemic low economic competitiveness of nuclear energy in the production of electricity, because of: (i) its dependence on oil, limiting its possible role as a carbon-free alternative; (ii) the choices made in relation to its fuel cycle, especially whether it includes reprocessing operations or not; (iii) the unavoidable uncertainty in the definition of the characteristics of its process; (iv) its large inertia (lack of flexibility) due to issues of time scale; and (v) its low power level.

Law and the practise of principle in diverse societies

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la London School of Economics and Political Science, United Kingdom, entre 2007 i 2009. L’objecte principal del projecte ha estat analitzar les implicacions jurídico-polítiques i institucionals d’una teoria de la justícia i la igualtat liberals aplicada a societats multiculturals amb un marcat predomini de la diversitat cultural. L’anàlisi desenvolupa una línia d'investigació interdisciplinar - entre el dret i la teoria política - iniciada en una tesis doctoral sobre multiculturalisme i drets de les minories culturals (UPF, 2000) que va culminar en la publicació de Group Rights as Human Rights (Springer, 2006). La recerca adopta com a punt de partida les conclusions de l'esmentada obra, en especial, la rellevància del reconeixement de drets col•lectius; tanmateix, el tipus de qüestions plantejades, l’enfoc i la metodologia emprades són substancialment diferents. En concret, s'adrecen preguntes específiques sobre el model i aspiracions del constitucionalisme democràtic i el paper del dret en contextos multiculturals. També s’atorga un pes central a la dimensió institucional dels models de gestió de la diversitat que s’analitzen, prioritzant un enfocament comparatiu a partir de l’estudi de controvèrsies concretes. L’objectiu és superar algunes limitacions importants de la literatura actual, com ara la tendència a examinar en abstracte la compatibilitat de determinades demandes amb el constitucionalisme democràtic, sense abordar el funcionament d'estratègies de gestió de la diversitat cultural emprades en contextos concrets. Els treballs producte d'aquest projecte articulen les línies bàsiques d’un model pluralista, basat en principis més que en regles, que desafia els plantejaments dominants actualment. Aquest model es caracteritza pel compromís amb la legitimitat i igualtat comparatives, rebutjant el paternalisme i les visions liberals típiques sobre el paper de la regulació. La presumpció de l’“standing” moral dels grups identitaris és fonamental per tal de considerar-los interlocutors vàlids amb interessos genuïns. També s’argumenta que la integració social en contextos multiculturals no depèn tant de l’eliminació del conflicte sinó, sobre tot, d’una gestió eficient que eviti abusos de poder sistemàtics. El model defensa el rol del dret en la institucionalització del diàleg intercultural, però admet que el diàleg no necessàriament condueix a l’acord o a una estructura reguladora coherent i uniforme. Les aspiracions del ordre jurídic pluralista són més modestes: afavorir la negociació i resolució en cada conflicte, malgrat la persistència de la fragmentació i la provisionalitat dels acords. La manca d'un marc regulador comú esdevé una virtut en la mesura que permet la interacció de diferents subordres; una interacció governada per una multiplicitat de regles no necessàriament harmòniques. Els avantatges i problemes d’aquest model s'analitzen a partir de l'anàlisi de l’estructura fragmentària de l'ordre jurídic internacional i del règim Europeu de drets humans.

Spatial Analysis of Cell Composition Data

A version of Matheron’s discrete Gaussian model is applied to cell composition data.The examples are for map patterns of felsic metavolcanics in two different areas. Q-Qplots of the model for cell values representing proportion of 10 km x 10 km cell areaunderlain by this rock type are approximately linear, and the line of best fit can be usedto estimate the parameters of the model. It is also shown that felsic metavolcanics in theAbitibi area of the Canadian Shield can be modeled as a fractal

The Role of Parliaments in European foreign policy

This book addresses the debate on the democratic deficit of European foreign and defence policies. This debate revolves around two dimensions. The first one has to do with the accountability of CFSP institutions. Is the current degree of parliamentary oversight of these policies the most appropriate? Has the disengagement of national parliaments regarding European foreign policy been counterbalanced by giving sufficient powers to the European Parliament? And, regarding the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP), are national parliaments effectively controlling it? The second dimension of the debate is related to the wider question of whether the European Parliament is capable of legitimising EU policy outcomes. In the absence of a Europe-wide demos and of a true party system, what interests do Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) represent when dealing with foreign policy issues? Are there transnational cleavages in foreign policy or are they mainly national? Furthermore, is the European Parliament developing a transnational, autonomous stance on foreign policy issues, different from that of the Council or the Commission? The present volume is the result of the 2nd Meeting of the FORNET Working Group on “Evolution and Accountability of CFSP Institutions” organised by the Observatory of European Foreign Policy (Research line of the Institut Universitari d’Estudis Europeus), which took place in Barcelona, the 4 and 5 March 2005.

Statistical Analysis of Eco-Toxicologic Data of Mammals from a Polluted Area

Several eco-toxicological studies have shown that insectivorous mammals, due to theirfeeding habits, easily accumulate high amounts of pollutants in relation to other mammal species. To assess the bio-accumulation levels of toxic metals and their in°uenceon essential metals, we quantified the concentration of 19 elements (Ca, K, Fe, B, P,S, Na, Al, Zn, Ba, Rb, Sr, Cu, Mn, Hg, Cd, Mo, Cr and Pb) in bones of 105 greaterwhite-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) from a polluted (Ebro Delta) and a control(Medas Islands) area. Since chemical contents of a bio-indicator are mainly compositional data, conventional statistical analyses currently used in eco-toxicology can givemisleading results. Therefore, to improve the interpretation of the data obtained, weused statistical techniques for compositional data analysis to define groups of metalsand to evaluate the relationships between them, from an inter-population viewpoint.Hypothesis testing on the adequate balance-coordinates allow us to confirm intuitionbased hypothesis and some previous results. The main statistical goal was to test equalmeans of balance-coordinates for the two defined populations. After checking normality,one-way ANOVA or Mann-Whitney tests were carried out for the inter-group balances

Symbolic meaning of local identity – A case study on Barcelona place brand representation

The core objective of this research process was to design an operational tool for place brand analysis. By modelling the emotional significance and the deeper-lying symbols associated to a specific place identity I expected to create a semiotic tool that could be applied, mutatis mutandis, on other similar place brands. As a field case study to develop the instrument, my choice of the research arena was Barcelona city, the capital of Catalonia Autonomous Community, Spain. Barcelona brand identity was approached in the line of the Chicago Urban Anthropology School. The research methods were designed according to the prescriptions of the urban anthropology, namely qualitative methods: in-depth interviews and discourse analysis. The final research outcome was a model summarizing a range of specific emotional values that support a place brand to position in the collective mindset and to assume a positively valued status and identity in the world order.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Electroluminiscence and optical amplification in silicon nanostructures: towards the integration of electronics and photonics

This line of research of my group intends to establish a Silicon technological platform in the field of photonics allowing the development of a wide set of applications. Particularly, what is still lacking in Silicon Photonics is an efficient and integrable light source such an LED or laser. Nanocrystals in silicon oxide or nitride matrices have been recently demonstrated as competitive materials for both active components (electrically and optically driven light emitters and optical amplifiers) and passive ones (waveguides and modulators). The final goal is the achievement of a complete integration of electronic and optical functions in the same CMOS chip. The first part of this paper will introduce the structural and optical properties of LEDs fabricated from silicon nanostructures. The second will treat the interaction of such nanocrystals with rare-earth elements (Er), which lead to an efficient hybrid system emitting in the third window of optical fibers. I will present the fabrication and assessment of optical waveguide amplifiers at 1.54 ¿m for which we have been able to demonstrate recently optical gain in waveguides made from sputtered silicon suboxide materials.

What trees tell us: dendrochronological and statistical analysis of the data

Trees are a great bank of data, named sometimes for this reason as the "silentwitnesses" of the past. Due to annual formation of rings, which is normally influenced directly by of climate parameters (generally changes in temperature and moisture or precipitation) and other environmental factors; these changes, occurred in the past, are"written" in the tree "archives" and can be "decoded" in order to interpret what hadhappened before, mainly applied for the past climate reconstruction.Using dendrochronological methods for obtaining samples of Pinus nigra fromthe Catalonian PrePirineous region, the cores of 15 trees with total time spine of about 100 - 250 years were analyzed for the tree ring width (TRW) patterns and had quite high correlation between them (0.71 ¿ 0.84), corresponding to a common behaviour for the environmental changes in their annual growth.After different trials with raw TRW data for standardization in order to take outthe negative exponential growth curve dependency, the best method of doubledetrending (power transformation and smoothing line of 32 years) were selected for obtaining the indexes for further analysis.Analyzing the cross-correlations between obtained tree ring width indexes andclimate data, significant correlations (p<0.05) were observed in some lags, as forexample, annual precipitation in lag -1 (previous year) had negative correlation with TRW growth in the Pallars region. Significant correlation coefficients are between 0.27- 0.51 (with positive or negative signs) for many cases; as for recent (but very short period) climate data of Seu d¿Urgell meteorological station, some significant correlation coefficients were observed, of the order of 0.9.These results confirm the hypothesis of using dendrochronological data as aclimate signal for further analysis, such as reconstruction of climate in the past orprediction in the future for the same locality.

Thermodynamic properties of hot nucleonic matter

Phase diagrams for bulk nuclear matter at finite temperatures and variable proton concentrations are presented and discussed. This binary system exhibits a line of critical points, a line of equal concentrations, and a line of maximum temperatures. the phenomenon of retrograde condensation is also possible.

Fragile-glass behavior of a short-range p-spin model

We propose a short-range generalization of the p-spin interaction spin-glass model. The model is well suited to test the idea that an entropy collapse is at the bottom line of the dynamical singularity encountered in structural glasses. The model is studied in three dimensions through Monte Carlo simulations, which put in evidence fragile glass behavior with stretched exponential relaxation and super-Arrhenius behavior of the relaxation time. Our data are in favor of a Vogel-Fulcher behavior of the relaxation time, related to an entropy collapse at the Kauzmann temperature. We, however, encounter difficulties analogous to those found in experimental systems when extrapolating thermodynamical data at low temperatures. We study the spin-glass susceptibility, investigating the behavior of the correlation length in the system. We find that the increase of the relaxation time is accompanied by a very slow growth of the correlation length. We discuss the scaling properties of off-equilibrium dynamics in the glassy regime, finding qualitative agreement with the mean-field theory.

Interaction of Spiral Waves in the Complex Ginzburg-Landau Equation

Solutions of the general cubic complex Ginzburg-Landau equation comprising multiple spiral waves are considered, and laws of motion for the centers are derived. The direction of the motion changes from along the line of centers to perpendicular to the line of centers as the separation increases, with the strength of the interaction algebraic at small separations and exponentially small at large separations. The corresponding asymptotic wave number and frequency are also determined, which evolve slowly as the spirals move