Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Medio siglo de cambios paisajísticos en la montaña mediterránea. Percepción y valoración social del paisaje en la alta Garrotxa (Girona)

Rural depopulation and abandonment of farming activities have resulted in an intense transformation of the characteristic landscapes of Mediterranean mountains. A dynamic characterized by an intense process of expansion of forested cover in detriment to livestock and agricultural areas. This process, which produces effects such as biodiversity and cultural heritage loss and contributes to the spread of wildfires, can be mapped, quantified and described with high accuracy through the means of digital mapping, geographic information systems and landscape indexes. But what is the perception and valuation of these changes by the stakeholders involved in the management of these territories? This article attempts to answer this question in the protected area of Alta Garrotxa (Girona), where a strong correlation between landscape dynamics and their perception by the stakeholders is revealed. On the other hand, the valuation and future prospects produce diverse and often contradictory points of views that illustrate the existing difficulties to management

Análisis arqueomorfológico y dinámica territorial en el Vallés Oriental (Barcelona) de la Protohistoria s. VI-V a.C.) a la alta Edad Media (s. IX-X)

La investigación sobre el paisaje en zonas urbanas o periurbanas implica importantes limitaciones metodológicas. En el presente estudio, el trabajo se centra en un llano pre-litoral próximo a la ciudad de Barcelona, el Vallès Oriental, profundamente urbanizado en las últimas dos décadas, hecho que condiciona la recuperación de nuevos datos arqueológicos y la implementación de programas de prospección arqueológica. Asimismo, la particular topografía que presenta el llano, caracterizado por unos relieves suaves, ha obligado a adaptar la metodología del análisis arqueomorfológico a este contexto geográfico. El artículo presenta los resultados del análisis arqueomorfológico realizado, que han sido cruzados con la documentación histórica y arqueológica para caracterizar —desde una perspectiva diacrónica— la red viaria, la estructuración territorial y la evolución del poblamiento de esta área y, finalmente, determinar las dinámicas del paisaje en época romana. La investigación sobre la morfología del territorio se ha llevado a cabo a partir de un intenso trabajo de fotointerpretación y análisis de la cartografía histórica en entorno SIG, especialmente útil en un paisaje marcado por las importantes trasformaciones del medio rural. Igualmente, los datos generados en los últimos años por la investigación arqueológica han sido revisados de forma detallada, a fin de contribuir a la planificación de las prospecciones arqueológicas y arqueomorfológicas desarrolladas.

Damage spreading transition in glasses: A probe for the ruggedness of the configurational landscape

We consider damage spreading transitions in the framework of mode-coupling theory. This theory describes relaxation processes in glasses in the mean-field approximation which are known to be characterized by the presence of an exponentially large number of metastable states. For systems evolving under identical but arbitrarily correlated noises, we demonstrate that there exists a critical temperature T0 which separates two different dynamical regimes depending on whether damage spreads or not in the asymptotic long-time limit. This transition exists for generic noise correlations such that the zero damage solution is stable at high temperatures, being minimal for maximal noise correlations. Although this dynamical transition depends on the type of noise correlations, we show that the asymptotic damage has the good properties of a dynamical order parameter, such as (i) independence of the initial damage; (ii) independence of the class of initial condition; and (iii) stability of the transition in the presence of asymmetric interactions which violate detailed balance. For maximally correlated noises we suggest that damage spreading occurs due to the presence of a divergent number of saddle points (as well as metastable states) in the thermodynamic limit consequence of the ruggedness of the free-energy landscape which characterizes the glassy state. These results are then compared to extensive numerical simulations of a mean-field glass model (the Bernasconi model) with Monte Carlo heat-bath dynamics. The freedom of choosing arbitrary noise correlations for Langevin dynamics makes damage spreading an interesting tool to probe the ruggedness of the configurational landscape.

Climate Change or Land Use Dynamics: Do We Know What Climate Change Indicators Indicate?

Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and averagelatitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i) environmental temperature; and ii) three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization), all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northerndistributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts

Firm Size and Short-Term Dynamics in Aggregate Entry and Exit

Much of the research on industry dynamics focuses on the interdependence between the sectorial rates of entry and exit. This paper argues that the size of firms and the reaction-adjustment period are important conditions missed in this literature. I illustrate the effects of this omission using data from the Spanish manufacturing industries between 1994 and 2001. Estimates from systems of equations models provide evidence of a conical revolving door phenomenon and of partial adjustments in the replacement-displacement of large firms. KEYWORDS: aggregation, industry dynamics, panel data, symmetry, simultaneity. JEL CLASSIFICATION: C33, C52, L60, L11

Chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies

This paper analyzes the role of financial development as a source of endogenous instability in small open economies. By assuming that firms face credit constraints, our model displays a complex dynamic behavior for intermediate values of the parameter representing the level of financial development of the economy. The basic implication of our model is that economies experiencing a process of financial development are more unstable than both very underdeveloped and very developed economies. Our instability concept means that small shocks have a persistent effect on the long run behavior of the model and also that economies can exhibit cycles with a very high period or even chaotic dynamic patterns.

Long-run Inflation-Unemployment Dynamics: The Spanish Phillips Curve and Economic Policy

This paper takes a new look at the long-run dynamics of inflation and unemployment in response to permanent changes in the growth rate of the money supply. We examine the Phillips curve from the perspective of what we call "frictional growth", i.e. the interaction between money growth and nominal frictions. After presenting theoretical models of this phenomenon, we construct an empirical model of the Spanish economy and, in this context, we evaluate the long-run inflation-unemployment trade for Spain and examine how recent policy changes have afected it.

Dynamics of the third order Lyness' difference equation

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt"

A class of stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents related to Glauber dynamics on random graphs

We introduce and study a class of infinite-horizon nonzero-sum non-cooperative stochastic games with infinitely many interacting agents using ideas of statistical mechanics. First we show, in the general case of asymmetric interactions, the existence of a strategy that allows any player to eliminate losses after a finite random time. In the special case of symmetric interactions, we also prove that, as time goes to infinity, the game converges to a Nash equilibrium. Moreover, assuming that all agents adopt the same strategy, using arguments related to those leading to perfect simulation algorithms, spatial mixing and ergodicity are proved. In turn, ergodicity allows us to prove “fixation”, i.e. that players will adopt a constant strategy after a finite time. The resulting dynamics is related to zerotemperature Glauber dynamics on random graphs of possibly infinite volume.

A Model-to-model analysis of the repeated Prisoners' Dilemma: genetic algorithms vs. evolutionary dynamics

We study the properties of the well known Replicator Dynamics when applied to a finitely repeated version of the Prisoners' Dilemma game. We characterize the behavior of such dynamics under strongly simplifying assumptions (i.e. only 3 strategies are available) and show that the basin of attraction of defection shrinks as the number of repetitions increases. After discussing the difficulties involved in trying to relax the 'strongly simplifying assumptions' above, we approach the same model by means of simulations based on genetic algorithms. The resulting simulations describe a behavior of the system very close to the one predicted by the replicator dynamics without imposing any of the assumptions of the analytical model. Our main conclusion is that analytical and computational models are good complements for research in social sciences. Indeed, while on the one hand computational models are extremely useful to extend the scope of the analysis to complex scenar

Evolució del paisatge de l'Horta de Lleida (1956/57-2003): transformació d'un paisatge de secà a regadiu

Els paisatges agraris al llarg del temps s’han transformat i han evolucionat segons les necessitats de la societat d’aquell moment. L’aigua ha estat el principal element transformador en l’agricultura del segle XX, i el cas de l’horta de Lleida, és un clar exemple de com l’aigua ha desenvolupat una agricultura que poc a poc s’ha caracteritzat per tenir majoritàriament cultius de regadiu, tot i ser una de les zones més àrides i amb menys precipitacions de Catalunya, a diferència de les zones de secà, que han anat desapareixen. Quantificar i analitzar els canvis que influeixen en la dinàmica del territori, han estat possibles a partir de l’estudi de fonts documentals històriques, tant escrites com gràfiques, com són els cadastres de rústica, les imatges aèries i els ortofotomapes. Mitjançant aquest valuós recurs històric s’ha pogut detectar i analitzar els principals canvis en els usos del sòl esdevinguts durant el període de 1956 a 2003 en determinades zones de l’horta de Lleida, a més ha servit per estimar les repercussions en el paisatge del consum d’aigua.

Landscape context on generalist and specialist aphid natural enemies

Report for the scientific sojourn at the University of Lund, Sweden, between May and September 2007. A landscape-scale research approach has been highlighted by a growing body of literature as essential for understanding important ecosystem services as biological control. Aphids are victims of a diversity of enemies making the aphid-enemy interaction a nice example for the role of enemy diversity for the functioning of biological control. Here it is examined the effects of landscape complexity on cereal aphids and associated natural enemies that varied in the degree of specialization. Parasitoids wasps abundance did not differ between landscape types but was strongly negatively related to the percentage of arable land. In contrast, abundances of generalist predators like Coccinellidae were significantly higher in simple landscapes since can benefit from the high availability of a variety of alternative resources within cropping systems. Consequently coccinellidae-to-aphid ratio was significantly higher in fields in homogenous landscapes as compared to fields included in an heterogeneous landscape, suggesting that enemy pressure on cereal aphids increases with landscape simplification. The landscape effect will depend mainly on the degree of specialization of functionally dominant natural enemies, so that the results imply that conservation actions aiming to optimise abundance for one taxonomic group in the agricultural landscape will not automatically increase abundance of other groups. Given that the strength of natural enemy impact on biocontrol depends on landscape features and the role of functionally dominant natural enemies. So, therefore it is essential to focus the future empirical work in examining the schedule of agricultural landscapes that maintain a diversity of generalist and specialist natural enemies.

Dynamics in Thompson's group F

We describe an explicit relationship between strand diagrams and piecewise-linear functions for elements of Thompson’s group F. Using this correspondence, we investigate the dynamics of elements of F, and we show that conjugacy of one-bump functions can be described by a Mather-type invariant.

The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.