Determinants of linear judgment: A meta-analysis of lens model studies

The mathematical representation of Brunswik s lens model has been usedextensively to study human judgment and provides a unique opportunity to conduct ameta-analysis of studies that covers roughly five decades. Specifically, we analyzestatistics of the lens model equation (Tucker, 1964) associated with 259 different taskenvironments obtained from 78 papers. In short, we find on average fairly high levelsof judgmental achievement and note that people can achieve similar levels of cognitiveperformance in both noisy and predictable environments. Although overall performancevaries little between laboratory and field studies, both differ in terms of components ofperformance and types of environments (numbers of cues and redundancy). An analysisof learning studies reveals that the most effective form of feedback is information aboutthe task. We also analyze empirically when bootstrapping is more likely to occur. Weconclude by indicating shortcomings of the kinds of studies conducted to date, limitationsin the lens model methodology, and possibilities for future research.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Differences of Functional Connectivity Brain Network in Emotional Judgment

Using combined emotional stimuli, combining photos of faces and recording of voices, we investigated the neural dynamics of emotional judgment using scalp EEG recordings. Stimuli could be either combioned in a congruent, or a non-congruent way.. As many evidences show the major role of alpha in emotional processing, the alpha band was subjected to be analyzed. Analysis was performed by computing the synchronization of the EEGs and the conditions congruent vs. non-congruent were compared using statistical tools. The obtained results demonstrate that scalp EEG ccould be used as a tool to investigate the neural dynamics of emotional valence and discriminate various emotions (angry, happy and neutral stimuli).

Eficàcia predictiva de l’HCR-20 i del PCL:SV en contexts institucionals

L’estudi es dirigeix a avaluar la capacitat predictiva sobre la violència dels instruments de judici clínic estructurat, amb una metodologia que aporti resultats comparables a estudis de l’àmbit internacional. La investigació es va portar a terme en un hospital civil de salut mental i la mostra està composta per 114 pacients de les unitats de crònics i subaguts. A l’avaluació inicial, l’HCR-20, el PCL:SV i el Protocol 7 van ser els instruments utilitzats per a la recollida d’informació de les variables predictors. La variable depenent o resultat va ser registrada prospectivament per part de l’equip d’infermeria amb un instrument observacional de fàcil ús, el MOAS. Mitjançant índexs de correlació, càlcul de riscos relatius, i anàlisis de regressió logística i corbes ROC va ser possible conèixer que l’HCR-20 i el PCL-SV són mesures vàlides per a la predicció de la violència intrahospitalària en el curt i mig termini en una mostra espanyola de persones amb malaltia mental severa. L’HCR-20 i particularment els ítems clínics van ser els millors predictors de la violència física envers a persones i objectes. Tant la puntuació numèrica de l’HCR-20 com el judici clínic estructurat van demostrar una precisió predictiva alta i comparable a l'obtinguda amb la versió original de l'instrument. El PCL:SV va arribar una precisió predictiva moderada que va anar disminuint al llarg del seguiment. Altres factors de risc com les agressions o la ira prèvies a l’avaluació també van augmentar significativament el risc de violència durant l’any de seguiment.

Emotion and reason in everyday risk perception

Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is knownabout its prevalence in everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method, 94 part-timestudents were prompted at random via cellular telephones to report on mood state and threeemotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotions valence, arousal, and dominance were measured using self-assessment manikins (Bradley &Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explainedsignificant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for varianceover and above reason (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were reassessedin a post-experimental session and found to be lower than their real-time counterparts.The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data withsimple technology. Evidence for the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates is provided inan Appendix.

What comes to mind

We present a model of intuitive inference, called local thinking, in which anagent combines data received from the external world with information retrieved frommemory to evaluate a hypothesis. In this model, selected and limited recall ofinformation follows a version of the respresentativeness heuristic. The model canaccount for some of the evidence on judgment biases, including conjunction anddisjunction fallacies, but also for several anomalies related to demand for insurance.

Entrepreneurial success and failure: Confidence and fallible judgement

Excess entry or the high failure rate of market-entry decisions is often attributed tooverconfidence exhibited by entreprene urs. We show analytically that whereas excess entryis an inevitable consequence of imperfect assessments of entrepreneurial skill, it does notimply overconfidence. Judgmental fallibility leads to excess entry even when everyone isunderconfident. Self-selection implies greater confidence (but not necessarilyoverconfidence) among those who start new businesses than those who do not and amongsuccessful entrants than failures. Our results question claims that entrepreneurs areoverconfident and emphasize the need to understand the role of judgmental fallibility inproducing economic outcomes.

What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)

The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

On ignoring scientific evidence: The bumpy road to enlightenment

It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent withtheir theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment anddecision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superiorto more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting ofvariables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions cansometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to theapparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomenabetter than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness,asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.

Automatic Prediction of Facial Trait Judgments: Appearance vs. Structural Models

Evaluating other individuals with respect to personality characteristics plays a crucial role in human relations and it is the focus of attention for research in diverse fields such as psychology and interactive computer systems. In psychology, face perception has been recognized as a key component of this evaluation system. Multiple studies suggest that observers use face information to infer personality characteristics. Interactive computer systems are trying to take advantage of these findings and apply them to increase the natural aspect of interaction and to improve the performance of interactive computer systems. Here, we experimentally test whether the automatic prediction of facial trait judgments (e.g. dominance) can be made by using the full appearance information of the face and whether a reduced representation of its structure is sufficient. We evaluate two separate approaches: a holistic representation model using the facial appearance information and a structural model constructed from the relations among facial salient points. State of the art machine learning methods are applied to a) derive a facial trait judgment model from training data and b) predict a facial trait value for any face. Furthermore, we address the issue of whether there are specific structural relations among facial points that predict perception of facial traits. Experimental results over a set of labeled data (9 different trait evaluations) and classification rules (4 rules) suggest that a) prediction of perception of facial traits is learnable by both holistic and structural approaches; b) the most reliable prediction of facial trait judgments is obtained by certain type of holistic descriptions of the face appearance; and c) for some traits such as attractiveness and extroversion, there are relationships between specific structural features and social perceptions.

Recommendations on percutaneous coronary intervention for the reperfusion of acute ST elevation myocardial infarction

Little information is currently available from the various societies of cardiology on primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Since primary PCI is the main method of reperfusion in AMI in many centres, and since of all cardiac emergencies AMI represents the most urgent situation for PCI, recommendations based on scientific evidence and expert experience would be useful for centres practising primary PCI, or those looking to establish a primary PCI programme. To this aim, a task force for primary PCI in AMI was formed to develop a set of recommendations to complement and assist clinical judgment. This paper represents the product of their recommendations.

Treatment patterns and health care resource utilization in a 1-year observational cohort study of outpatients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence treated with long-acting injectable antipsychotics

Purpose: To describe (1) the clinical profiles and the patterns of use of long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics in patients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence with oral antipsychotics, and in those who started treatment with LAI antipsychotics, (2) health care resource utilization and associated costs. Patients and methods: A total of 597 outpatients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence, according to the psychiatrist's clinical judgment, were recruited at 59 centers in a noninterventional prospective observational study of 1-year follow-up when their treatment was modified. In a post hoc analysis, the profiles of patients starting LAI or continuing with oral antipsychotics were described, and descriptive analyses of treatments, health resource utilization, and direct costs were performed in those who started an LAI antipsychotic. Results: Therapy modifications involved the antipsychotic medications in 84.8% of patients, mostly because of insufficient efficacy of prior regimen. Ninety-two (15.4%) patients started an LAI antipsychotic at recruitment. Of these, only 13 (14.1%) were prescribed with first-generation antipsychotics. During 1 year, 16.3% of patients who started and 14.9% of patients who did not start an LAI antipsychotic at recruitment relapsed, contrasting with the 20.9% who had been hospitalized only within the prior 6 months. After 1 year, 74.3% of patients who started an LAI antipsychotic continued concomitant treatment with oral antipsychotics. The mean (median) total direct health care cost per patient per month during the study year among the patients starting any LAI antipsychotic at baseline was 1,407 ( 897.7). Medication costs (including oral and LAI antipsychotics and concomitant medication) represented almost 44%, whereas nonmedication costs accounted for more than 55% of the mean total direct health care costs. Conclusion: LAI antipsychotics were infrequently prescribed in spite of a psychiatrist-perceived risk of nonadherence to oral antipsychotics. Mean medication costs were lower than nonmedication costs.

The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

Treatment patterns and health care resource utilization in a 1-year observational cohort study of outpatients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence treated with long-acting injectable antipsychotics

Purpose: To describe (1) the clinical profiles and the patterns of use of long-acting injectable (LAI) antipsychotics in patients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence with oral antipsychotics, and in those who started treatment with LAI antipsychotics, (2) health care resource utilization and associated costs. Patients and methods: A total of 597 outpatients with schizophrenia at risk of nonadherence, according to the psychiatrist's clinical judgment, were recruited at 59 centers in a noninterventional prospective observational study of 1-year follow-up when their treatment was modified. In a post hoc analysis, the profiles of patients starting LAI or continuing with oral antipsychotics were described, and descriptive analyses of treatments, health resource utilization, and direct costs were performed in those who started an LAI antipsychotic. Results: Therapy modifications involved the antipsychotic medications in 84.8% of patients, mostly because of insufficient efficacy of prior regimen. Ninety-two (15.4%) patients started an LAI antipsychotic at recruitment. Of these, only 13 (14.1%) were prescribed with first-generation antipsychotics. During 1 year, 16.3% of patients who started and 14.9% of patients who did not start an LAI antipsychotic at recruitment relapsed, contrasting with the 20.9% who had been hospitalized only within the prior 6 months. After 1 year, 74.3% of patients who started an LAI antipsychotic continued concomitant treatment with oral antipsychotics. The mean (median) total direct health care cost per patient per month during the study year among the patients starting any LAI antipsychotic at baseline was 1,407 ( 897.7). Medication costs (including oral and LAI antipsychotics and concomitant medication) represented almost 44%, whereas nonmedication costs accounted for more than 55% of the mean total direct health care costs. Conclusion: LAI antipsychotics were infrequently prescribed in spite of a psychiatrist-perceived risk of nonadherence to oral antipsychotics. Mean medication costs were lower than nonmedication costs.

Responsabilidad civil y daños a los propios bienes. Comentario a las SSTS, 1a, 29.10.2008 (RJ 2008\5801; MP: Román García Varela) y 22.12.2008 (RJ 2009\162; MP: Juan Antonio Xiol Ríos)

En 2008 y en dos ocasiones, la Sala Primera del Tribunal Supremo ha resuelto la cuestión relativa a si el propietario de una finca, la cual había contaminado como consecuencia del desarrollo de su actividad industrial y había vendido ocultando esta circunstancia, es responsable extracontractualmente frente al tercer adquirente por los daños económicos sufridos. En la primera Sentencia, de 29.10.2008, el Tribunal Supremo condena al contaminador por responsabilidad extracontractual. En la segunda, de 22.12.2008, el Tribunal Supremo absuelve a éste de la responsabilidad extracontracual porqué los daños fueron causados a una finca propia.