In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Comparison of recent toll road concession transactions in the United States and France

Recent concessions in France and in the US have resulted in a dramatic difference in the valuation placed on the toll roads; the price paid by the investors in France was twelve times current cash flow whereas investors paid sixty times current cash flow for the U.S. toll roads. In this paper we explore two questions: What accounts for the difference in these multiples, and what are the implications with respect to the public interest. Our analysis illustrates how structural and procedural decisions made by the public owner affect the concession price. Further, the terms of the concession have direct consequences that are enjoyed or borne by the various stakeholders of the toll road.

Deux extensions de Théorèmes de Hamburger (portant sur l'équation fonctionnelle de la fonction dzêta)

We propose two types of extensions to Hamburger’s theorems on the Dirichlet series with functional equation like the one of the Riemann zeta function, under weaker hypotheses. This builds upon the dictionary betweeen the moderate meromorphic functions with functional equation and the tempered distributions with extended S-support condition.

Estudi per calorimetria del recuit i la recristal·lització de coure trefilat

A la indústria de trefilatge de coure, el fil elèctric es fabrica per deformació en fred d'un alambró de secció considerable (uns 5 mm de diametre). Per tal d'aconseguir calibres inferiors al mm són necessaris multiples passos per sengles fileres on el gruix es redueix progressivament. La deformació plàstica en fred comporta una reducció de la ductilitat de tal manera que mes enllà d'una determinada reducció de secció el fil es trencaria. Per això, és necessari un recuit tèrmic amb el qual es recupera la ductilitat inicial. El procés microscòpic principal que explica el canvi de ductilitat és la recristal•lització de l'estructura deformada. L'optimització del procés requereix controlar la temperatura i la durada del recuit. Una tècnica que permet monitoritzar la recristal•lització és la calorimetria, ja que durant el recuit es desprèn calor. Per tant, l'estudi es proposa col laborar en l'optimització del procés amb la predicció de temperatures de recuit per a temps molt curts i per a temps molt llargs. L'estudi s'inicia amb mostres de fil de coure deformat a tracció. Aquestes mostres es recouen a diverses velocitats d'escalfament (des de 10 K/min fins a 80 K/min) per tal d'obtenir els paràmetres cinètics necessaris per a la predicci6 dels recuits isoterms. Aquests paràmetres corresponen a la cinètica de JMAK. Els resultats de la primera sèrie d'experiments s6n esperancadors, però es creu que la mostra comercial no es troba suficientment recuita abans de sotmetre-la a deformació

Market rewards to patterns on increasing earnings: do cash flow patterns, accruals manipulation and real activities manipulation matter?

This study explores whether firms have differential price-earnings multiples associated with their means of achieving a sequential pattern of increasing positive earnings. Our main findings show that market participants assign higher price-earnings multiples to firms when their pattern of increasing earnings is supported by the same pattern of increasing cash flows. Market participants assign lower price-earnings multiples to firms suspect of having engaged in accrual-based earnings management, sales manipulation, and overproduction to achieve the earnings pattern. We find, however, that market participants do not penalize firms suspect of having achieved the earnings pattern through the opportunistic reduction of discretionary expenses.

Quantifying quantitative literacy: Age heaping and the history of human capital

Age data frequently display excess frequencies at round or attractive ages, such as even numbers and multiples of five. This phenomenon of age heaping has been viewed as a problem in previous research, especially in demography and epidemiology. We see it as an opportunity and propose its use as a measure of human capital that can yield comparable estimates across a wide range of historical contexts. A simulation study yields methodological guidelines for measuring and interpreting differences in ageheaping, while analysis of contemporary and historical datasets demonstrates the existence of a robust correlation between age heaping and literacy at both the individual and aggregate level. To illustrate the method, we generate estimates of human capital in Europe over the very long run, which support the hypothesis of a major increase in human capital preceding the industrial revolution.

Oligomerization and DNA binding of Ler, a master regulator of pathogenicity of enterohemorrhagic and enteropathogenic Escherichia coli

Ler is a DNA-binding, oligomerizable protein that regulates pathogenicity islands in enterohemorrhagic and enteropathogenic Escherichia coli strains. Ler counteracts the transcriptional silencing effect of H-NS, another oligomerizable nucleoid-associated protein. We studied the oligomerization of Ler in the absence and presence of DNA by atomic force microscopy. Ler forms compact particles with a multimodal size distribution corresponding to multiples of 35 units of Ler. DNA wraps around Ler particles that contain more than 1516 Ler monomers. The resulting shortening of the DNA contour length is in agreement with previous measurements of the length of DNA protected by Ler in footprinting assays. We propose that the repetition unit corresponds to the number of monomers per turn of a tight helical Ler oligomer. While the repressor (H-NS) and anti-repressor (Ler) have similar DNA-binding domains, their oligomerization domains are unrelated. We suggest that the different oligomerization behavior of the two proteins explains the opposite results of their interaction with the same or proximal regions of DNA.

El absentismo laboral en la empresa española

[spa] Se trata de un estudio sobre el absentismo laboral durante la primera década del S. XXI en España y con comparativas de otros países de nuestro entorno. Se analizan y presentan gráficos de las diferentes contingencias más significativas que inciden en las ausencias al trabajo. Se comentan los factores organizacionales, sociales y políticos que inciden en este fenómeno cuyos costes son elevados. Este estudio argumenta que la falta de motivación en sus multiples aspectos son la clave para que los niveles de absentismo sean elevados. El trabajo relata los distintos medios que son utilizados habitualmente para reducir las ausencias en el trabajo.

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables

Interrupció del creixement en la hibernació del gripau corredor (Epidelea calamita) en zones semiàrides

Les particularitats de les poblacions amfíbiques que viuen en zones semiàrides sotmeses a un alt estrès ambiental es posen de manifest mitjançant estudis d’esqueletocronologia. L’estudi pretén avaluar la correlació histològica entre les marques de creixement (lines of arrested growth [LAG]) que es visualitzen en les falanges dels dits i l’edat d’individus de gripau corredor (Epidelea calamita). Existeix una correspondència entre el nombre de LAG i el nombre d’hibernacions, de manera que, en un principi, s’entén cada una de les línies com un any de vida de l’individu. En els resultats trobats mitjançant l’anàlisi dels talls de les falanges, s’aprecien un conjunt de línies múltiples que es consideren com una hibernació interrompuda per petits creixements durant els períodes més càlids de l’hivern i en certa part també per les ocasionals precipitacions. Els resultats obtinguts suggereixen l’existència d’un patró de creixement, en les poblacions d’amfibis en zones semiàrides, diferent de qualsevol altre trobat en amfibis de zones temperades.

First trimester maternal level of PAPP-A, βhCG and ethnicity as predictive of Intrauterine Growth Restriction

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is one of the leading causes of perinatal mortality and morbidity. Nowadays, this condition is detected in the 3rt and last trimester of gestation when the pathology is already established and success of therapeutic strategies are limited. As the physiopathology of the disease suggests that the problem stems from poor placental implantation, it would be quite advantageous to identify women at increased risk in the first or second trimester of gestation because it then might be possible to offer treatment interventions or at least to establish increased surveillance for high risk pregnancies. Maternal levels of pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A (PAPP-A) and free β human chorionic gonadotropin (free βhCG) has been shown to be effective in first trimester screening for chromosomal abnormalities, primarily trisomies 21, 13 and 18. Previous studies evaluating PAPP-A and free βhCG measured in the first trimester in relation with IUGR have provided conflicting results. Moreover, it has been suggested that black ethnicity is another important predictive factor for fetal growth restriction.Objective: To analyse the association between first trimester serum analytes (PAPP-A and free βhCG) and ethnicity with Intrauterine Growth Restriction.Methods: The study consists in a retrospective cohort, including all singleton pregnancies with complete outcome data that had undergone first trimester screening (PAPP-A and free βhCG) at 11-13+6weeks of gestation between 1/1/2010 - 31/12/2012 in Hospital Universitari Dr Josep Trueta. Biochemical markers are converted to multiples of the median (MoMs) and percentiles 5 and 10 are calculated. The association between free βhCG and PAPP-A with the incidence of IUGR is evaluated in combination with maternal ethnicity. Bivariate and logistic regression analyses are performed to adjust this association for co variables