Anticipating linear stochastic differential equations driven by a Lévy process

In this paper we study the existence of a unique solution for linear stochastic differential equations driven by a Lévy process, where the initial condition and the coefficients are random and not necessarily adapted to the underlying filtration. Towards this end, we extend the method based on Girsanov transformations on Wiener space and developped by Buckdahn [7] to the canonical Lévy space, which is introduced in [25].

Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

Integrated random processes exhibiting long tails, finite moments, and power-law spectra

A dynamical model based on a continuous addition of colored shot noises is presented. The resulting process is colored and non-Gaussian. A general expression for the characteristic function of the process is obtained, which, after a scaling assumption, takes on a form that is the basis of the results derived in the rest of the paper. One of these is an expansion for the cumulants, which are all finite, subject to mild conditions on the functions defining the process. This is in contrast with the Lévy distribution¿which can be obtained from our model in certain limits¿which has no finite moments. The evaluation of the spectral density and the form of the probability density function in the tails of the distribution shows that the model exhibits a power-law spectrum and long tails in a natural way. A careful analysis of the characteristic function shows that it may be separated into a part representing a Lévy process together with another part representing the deviation of our model from the Lévy process. This

Generalized backward doubly stochastic differential equations and SPDEs with nonlinear Neumann boundary conditions

In this paper, a new class of generalized backward doubly stochastic differential equations is investigated. This class involves an integral with respect to an adapted continuous increasing process. A probabilistic representation for viscosity solutions of semi-linear stochastic partial differential equations with a Neumann boundary condition is given.

Nonlinear models and small sample performance of the generalized method of moments

In this paper I explore the issue of nonlinearity (both in the datageneration process and in the functional form that establishes therelationship between the parameters and the data) regarding the poorperformance of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in small samples.To this purpose I build a sequence of models starting with a simple linearmodel and enlarging it progressively until I approximate a standard (nonlinear)neoclassical growth model. I then use simulation techniques to find the smallsample distribution of the GMM estimators in each of the models.

The induced generalized OWA operator

[spa] Se presenta el operador OWA generalizado inducido (IGOWA). Es un nuevo operador de agregación que generaliza al operador OWA a través de utilizar las principales características de dos operadores muy conocidos como son el operador OWA generalizado y el operador OWA inducido. Entonces, este operador utiliza medias generalizadas y variables de ordenación inducidas en el proceso de reordenación. Con esta formulación, se obtiene una amplia gama de operadores de agregación que incluye a todos los casos particulares de los operadores IOWA y GOWA, y otros casos particulares. A continuación, se realiza una generalización mayor al operador IGOWA a través de utilizar medias cuasi-aritméticas. Finalmente, también se desarrolla un ejemplo numérico del nuevo modelo en un problema de toma de decisiones financieras.

Time of ruin in a risk model with generalized Erlang (n) interclaim times and a constant dividend barrier

In this paper we analyze the time of ruin in a risk process with the interclaim times being Erlang(n) distributed and a constant dividend barrier. We obtain an integro-differential equation for the Laplace Transform of the time of ruin. Explicit solutions for the moments of the time of ruin are presented when the individual claim amounts have a distribution with rational Laplace transform. Finally, some numerical results and a compare son with the classical risk model, with interclaim times following an exponential distribution, are given.

The induced generalized OWA operator

[spa] Se presenta el operador OWA generalizado inducido (IGOWA). Es un nuevo operador de agregación que generaliza al operador OWA a través de utilizar las principales características de dos operadores muy conocidos como son el operador OWA generalizado y el operador OWA inducido. Entonces, este operador utiliza medias generalizadas y variables de ordenación inducidas en el proceso de reordenación. Con esta formulación, se obtiene una amplia gama de operadores de agregación que incluye a todos los casos particulares de los operadores IOWA y GOWA, y otros casos particulares. A continuación, se realiza una generalización mayor al operador IGOWA a través de utilizar medias cuasi-aritméticas. Finalmente, también se desarrolla un ejemplo numérico del nuevo modelo en un problema de toma de decisiones financieras.

Time of ruin in a risk model with generalized Erlang (n) interclaim times and a constant dividend barrier

In this paper we analyze the time of ruin in a risk process with the interclaim times being Erlang(n) distributed and a constant dividend barrier. We obtain an integro-differential equation for the Laplace Transform of the time of ruin. Explicit solutions for the moments of the time of ruin are presented when the individual claim amounts have a distribution with rational Laplace transform. Finally, some numerical results and a compare son with the classical risk model, with interclaim times following an exponential distribution, are given.

The induced generalized OWA operator

We present the induced generalized ordered weighted averaging (IGOWA) operator. It is a new aggregation operator that generalizes the OWA operator by using the main characteristics of two well known aggregation operators: the generalized OWA and the induced OWA operator. Then, this operator uses generalized means and order inducing variables in the reordering process. With this formulation, we get a wide range of aggregation operators that include all the particular cases of the IOWA and the GOWA operator, and a lot of other cases such as the induced ordered weighted geometric (IOWG) operator and the induced ordered weighted quadratic averaging (IOWQA) operator. We further generalize the IGOWA operator by using quasi-arithmetic means. The result is the Quasi-IOWA operator. Finally, we also develop a numerical example of the new approach in a financial decision making problem.

Forecasting the maximum compensation offer in the automobile BI claims negotiation process

Most motor bodily injury (BI) claims are settled by negotiation, with fewer than 5% of cases going to court. A well-defined negotiation strategy is thus very useful for insurance companies. In this paper we assume that the monetary compensation awarded in court is the upper amount to be offered by the insurer in the negotiation process. Using a real database, a log-linear model is implemented to estimate the maximal offer. Non-spherical disturbances are detected. Correlation occurs when various claims are settled in the same judicial verdict. Group wise heteroscedasticity is due to the influence of the forensic valuation on the final compensation amount. An alternative approximation based on generalized inference theory is applied to estimate confidence intervals on variance components, since classical interval estimates may be unreliable for datasets with unbalanced structures.

The period function of the generalized Lotka-Volterra centers

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt"

Does bounded rationality lead to individual heterogeneity? The impact of the experimentation process and of memory constraints

In this paper we explore the effect of bounded rationality on the convergence of individual behavior toward equilibrium. In the context of a Cournot game with a unique and symmetric Nash equilibrium, firms are modeled as adaptive economic agents through a genetic algorithm. Computational experiments show that (1) there is remarkable heterogeneity across identical but boundedly rational agents; (2) such individual heterogeneity is not simply a consequence of the random elements contained in the genetic algorithm; (3) the more rational agents are in terms of memory abilities and pre-play evaluation of strategies, the less heterogeneous they are in their actions. At the limit case of full rationality, the outcome converges to the standard result of uniform individual behavior.

A generalized assignment game

The proposed game is a natural extension of the Shapley and Shubik Assignment Game to the case where each seller owns a set of different objets instead of only one indivisible object. We propose definitions of pairwise stability and group stability that are adapted to our framework. Existence of both pairwise and group stable outcomes is proved. We study the structure of the group stable set and we finally prove that the set of group stable payoffs forms a complete lattice with one optimal group stable payoff for each side of the market.