Chaotic dynamics in credit constrained emerging economies

This paper analyzes the role of financial development as a source of endogenous instability in small open economies. By assuming that firms face credit constraints, our model displays a complex dynamic behavior for intermediate values of the parameter representing the level of financial development of the economy. The basic implication of our model is that economies experiencing a process of financial development are more unstable than both very underdeveloped and very developed economies. Our instability concept means that small shocks have a persistent effect on the long run behavior of the model and also that economies can exhibit cycles with a very high period or even chaotic dynamic patterns.

Real equilibrium exchange rates. A panel data approach for advanced and emerging economies.

Based on an behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model, this paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate and evaluates the degree of misalignment of a group of currencies since 1980. Within a panel cointegration setting, we estimate the relationship between exchange rate and a set of economic fundamentals, such as traded-nontraded productivity differentials and the stock of foreign assets. Having ascertained the variables are integrated and cointegrated, the long-run equilibrium value of the fundamentals are estimated and used to derive equilibrium exchange rates and misalignments. Although there is statistical homogeneity, some structural differences were found to exist between advanced and emerging economies.

Ten Propositions on Rural Poverty and Agrarian Transition in Central Eurasia

The relation between agricultural development and rural poverty reduction in six Central Eurasian countries, namely Azerbaijan (South Caucasus) and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (Central Asia), is discussed by presenting and analyzing ten propositions. These propositions cover a broad range of issues that relate to rural poverty in this region, such as: the state of income and non-income poverty; the diverse processes of land reform and farm restructuring, and agricultural policy reform; and finally, the institutional and market framework that is needed for dynamic agricultural and rural development. The paper contends that rural poverty is not responding as robustly to rapid economic growth in these countries, and that agricultural growth, in particular in the newly emerging peasant farm sector, is necessary to promote rural poverty reduction.

Interculturalidad en la educación superior. Los Estudios de Asia Oriental, los Estudios Hispánicos y la enseñanza de cultura

Primer estadi d’un projecte de recerca més ampli que pretén comparar les imatges de la cultura espanyola i japonesa que transmeten els Estudis Hispànics al Japó i els Estudis d’Àsia Oriental a Espanya, respectivament. Disquisició sobre el marc teòric dels estudis interculturals. Anàlisi de la creació de la imatge del Japó i de la distribució de la seva cultura internacionalment.

From creative ideas to new emerging ventures: the process of identification and exploitation among finnish design entrepreneurs

This study focuses on identification and exploitation processes among Finnish design entrepreneurs (i.e. selfemployed industrial designers). More specifically, this study strives to find out what design entrepreneurs do when they create new ventures, how venture ideas are identified and how entrepreneurial processes are organized to identify and exploit such venture ideas in the given industrial context. Indeed, what does educated and creative individuals do when they decide to create new ventures, where do the venture ideas originally come from, and moreover, how are venture ideas identified and developed into viable business concepts that are introduced on the markets? From an academic perspective: there is a need to increase our understanding of the interaction between the identification and exploitation of emerging ventures, in this and other empirical contexts. Rather than assuming that venture ideas are constant in time, this study examines how emerging ideas are adjusted to enable exploitation in dynamic market settings. It builds on the insights from previous entrepreneurship process research. The interpretations from the theoretical discussion build on the assumption that the subprocesses of identification and exploitation interact, and moreover, they are closely entwined with each other (e.g. McKelvie & Wiklund, 2004, Davidsson, 2005). This explanation challenges the common assumption that entrepreneurs would first identify venture ideas and then exploit them (e.g. Shane, 2003). The assumption is that exploitation influences identification, just as identification influences exploitation. Based on interviews with design entrepreneurs and external actors (e.g. potential customers, suppliers and collaborators), it appears as identification and exploitation of venture ideas are carried out in close interaction between a number of actors, rather than alone by entrepreneurs. Due to their available resources, design entrepreneurs have a desire to focus on identification related activities and to find external actors that take care of exploitation related activities. The involvement of external actors may have a direct impact on decisionmaking and various activities along the processes of identification and exploitation, which is something that previous research does not particularly emphasize. For instance, Bhave (1994) suggests both operative and strategic feedback from the market, but does not explain how external parties are actually involved in the decisionmaking, and in carrying out various activities along the entrepreneurial process.

El Orden regional de Asia oriental en materia de seguridad

El trabajo analiza los procesos de gestación y evolución del orden regional de Asia oriental en materia de seguridad, así como la estructura normativa del mismo. En estos procesos las iniciativas bilaterales de los Estados tradicionalmente han jugado un papel determinante. Las últimas dos décadas, no obstante, han sido testigo del creciente peso de otros actores no estatales en el marco del llamado second track y del impulso de iniciativas multilaterales. En cuanto a la estructura de este orden, por otra parte, ésta se compone de unos principios y normas constitucionales y de unas instituciones fundamentales que delimitan un orden diferente de y compatible con el orden internacional actual.

The Monetary policy rules and the inflation process in open emerging

This paper has three objectives. First, it aims at revealing the logic of interest rate setting pursued by monetary authorities of 12 new EU members. Using estimation of an augmented Taylor rule, we find that this setting was not always consistent with the official monetary policy. Second, we seek to shed light on the inflation process of these countries. To this end, we carry out an estimation of an open economy Philips curve (PC). Our main finding is that inflation rates were not only driven by backward persistency but also held a forward-looking component. Finally, we assess the viability of existing monetary arrangements for price stability. The analysis of the conditional inflation variance obtained from GARCH estimation of PC is used for this purpose. We conclude that inflation targeting is preferable to an exchange rate peg because it allowed decreasing the inflation rate and anchored its volatility.

The ‘Dragon’ and the ‘Elephant’ and Global Imbalances

Global financial imbalances receive a great deal of attention in relation to the emerging economies China and India. This chapter analyzes this relation, but argues first that they are actually re-balancing the existing structural inequality in the world economy, in which for so long only the Western economies and Japan dominated economic growth and international trade, moving towards a more multi-polar world economy. China in particular, with its rapid export-led growth, has indeed been part and parcel of the emerging financial imbalances, feeding the ‘over-consumption’ in the US and using its accumulating international reserves in buying US-treasury bonds. Finance therefore is moving to the economy that ‘least needs it’. This imbalance can only be redressed if the US (and some of the other OECD countries) start saving more and consuming less (and become more competitive), with China further stimulating domestic demand (which it already did in response to the crisis). China and to a lesser extend India, as emerging large economies and a more important roles in global markets, also contribute to new imbalances, such as the influence of the insatiable appetite for resources (carbon-hydrates, minerals and bio-mass) of these relatively energy-inefficient economies, while at the same time attracting an increasing share of FDI towards them. The chapter finally raises the issue that these three mentioned imbalances make it more difficult for developing countries (except for those who are resource-rich) to get access to the necessary development finance.

Multilateralismo y minilateralismo en el orden regional de Asia oriental : un análisis de las conversaciones a seis bandas

Esta memoria parte del estudio de la teoría de las Relaciones Internacionales, seguido de un análisis del regionalismo en el Este asiático, así como del multilateralismo y del minilateralismo como modus operandi en las relaciones internacionales y su desarrollo específico en el Noreste asiático, o Asia oriental. Todo ello se ha examinado con el fin de poder aprehender la dinámica internacional de la segunda crisis nuclear con Corea del Norte, así como proveer con un mayor entendimiento sobre las conversaciones a seis bandas (6PT), como ejemplo de foro de negociación minilateral creado ad hoc con el fin de buscar una solución al problema norcoreano. Hemos procedido al examen del pensamiento estratégico de los diferentes países que conforman las 6PT, así como al estudio de los intereses, acuerdos y desacuerdos de cada uno de ellos en la mesa de negociaciones con el objetivo de intentar comprender el porqué de su aparente fracaso a la hora de solucionar dicha crisis nuclear. Finalmente, hemos procedido a un estudio de la comunidad del Noreste asiático y del marco de seguridad existente en la región, así como de las perspectivas para la institucionalización de las conversaciones a seis bandas para poder comprender si, desarrollado como organización multilateral, este foro podría favorecer la estabilidad en la región, la cooperación regional y con ello una mayor integración.

Catalunya i la Comunitat de Madrid com a pols d'atracció de la inversió estrangera directa procedent de l'Asia Oriental (1996-2004)

Aquest document descriu els valors d'inversió estrangera directa de l'Àsia oriental a escala mundial durant el període 1996-2004, per a valorar la dimensió d'aquest tipus d'inversió a Catalunya i a Madrid. Relaciona els valors d'aquesta inversió amb les taxes de comerç exterior amb l'Àsia oriental i amb els valors d'immigració asiàtica a Catalunya i a Madrid.

Acumulación de reservas de divisas y aparición de fondos soberanos en las economías emergentes de Asia

Aquest Treball Final de Carrera pretén analitzar de manera organitzada els Fons de Riquesa Sobirana, un dels actors amb major rellevància dins de l’economia mundial en els últims anys; sobre el qual es té poca informació, degut principalment, a la seva manca de transparència. Aquest estudi parteix d’un primer anàlisis a nivell macroeconòmic sobre les raons de creació d’aquests fons, i sobre com comencen a agafar importància dins del panorama econòmic actual. A partir d’aquí, es desenvolupa l’estudi sobre els països emergents d’Àsia, que utilitzen aquests Fons de Riquesa Sobirana com a vehicles per a canalitzar les seves Inversions cap a l’exterior, amb l’objectiu de diversificar els seus ingressos econòmics, i garantitzar el desenvolupament futur, tant del país com de la població. Finalment, el treball aborda el cas dels Emirats Àrabs Units, un país amb un gran número de Fons de Riquesa Sobirana, que estan prenen posicions en alguns sectors estratègics de moltes economies desenvolupades.

El gran juego: la guerra secreta por el control de Asia Central (1836-1919)

Durant el segle XIX i les primeres dècades del XX, Àsia Central va patir de primera mà la rivalitat entre les dues grans potències europees del moment: Anglaterra i Rússia. Aquest enfrontament va ser batejat pels seus propis participants amb el nom d'El Gran Joc. A diferència d'altres lluites històriques prèvies, el Gran Joc no es va resumir en una guerra, sinó en un cúmul d'elles, que es van succeir al llarg del temps en diferents territoris del centre del continent asiàtic i a les que van acompanyar accions diplomàtiques igualment nombroses. Tot i l'extensió del conflicte, Afganistan es va erigir com el punt clau més rellevant al voltant del qual l'Imperi rus i el britànic van desenvolupar les seves intrigues. Els dos poders europeus, amb els seus respectius objectius en ment, no van dubtar a dur a terme un dels majors desplegaments estratègics mai vist a la zona, valent-se, a més dels seus efectius, dels habitants asiàtics com peons al tauler del seu joc i marcant profundament el futur de les nacions centreasiàtiques, així com establint un precedent en la manera de fer la guerra on la victòria d'una facció sobre una altra mai estaria clara.

Historia de Vida de Andrés Díaz de Rábago S.J. (1947-1957): O cómo la Guerra Civil China cambió la estructura de la Compañía de Jesús en Asia.

Peer-reviewed

Emerging narratives of conference interpreters’ training: a case study of ad hoc training in Babels and the Social Forum

Desde una perspectiva narrativa, este artículo explora cómo la práctica y la formación en interpretación de conferenciasse han percibido en la disciplina, en la profesión y en diferentescolectivos de traductores e interpretes comprometid@s como ECOSy Babels. Sostiene que estas distintas maneras de percibir la interpretación no son meramente opuestas sino que su potencial confluencia es clave para hacer posible una interpretación de conferencias más comprometida políticamente y más socio-crítica en un mundo de desigualdades cada vez más acentuadas y de mercantilización creciente de todos los aspectos de la vida. El artículo lleva a cabo un estudio de caso sobre la formación ad hoc de intérpretes en el Foro Social, en particular el Foro Social Europeo de Londres, y analiza cómo el trabajo colectivo entre instituciones educativas y sociedad civil tanto local como global ha dado luz a prácticas transformadoras hacia una metodología de formación mássocio-critica y con mayor consciencia ética.

Organisational Values as "Attractors of Chaos": An Emerging Cultural Change to Manage Organisational Complexity

Business organisations are excellent representations of what in physics and mathematics are designated "chaotic" systems. Because a culture of innovation will be vital for organisational survival in the 21st century, the present paper proposes that viewing organisations in terms of "complexity theory" may assist leaders in fine-tuning managerial philosophies that provide orderly management emphasizing stability within a culture of organised chaos, for it is on the "boundary of chaos" that the greatest creativity occurs. It is argued that 21st century companies, as chaotic social systems, will no longer be effectively managed by rigid objectives (MBO) nor by instructions (MBI). Their capacity for self-organisation will be derived essentially from how their members accept a shared set of values or principles for action (MBV). Complexity theory deals with systems that show complex structures in time or space, often hiding simple deterministic rules. This theory holds that once these rules are found, it is possible to make effective predictions and even to control the apparent complexity. The state of chaos that self-organises, thanks to the appearance of the "strange attractor", is the ideal basis for creativity and innovation in the company. In this self-organised state of chaos, members are not confined to narrow roles, and gradually develop their capacity for differentiation and relationships, growing continuously toward their maximum potential contribution to the efficiency of the organisation. In this way, values act as organisers or "attractors" of disorder, which in the theory of chaos are equations represented by unusually regular geometric configurations that predict the long-term behaviour of complex systems. In business organisations (as in all kinds of social systems) the starting principles end up as the final principles in the long term. An attractor is a model representation of the behavioral results of a system. The attractor is not a force of attraction or a goal-oriented presence in the system; it simply depicts where the system is headed based on its rules of motion. Thus, in a culture that cultivates or shares values of autonomy, responsibility, independence, innovation, creativity, and proaction, the risk of short-term chaos is mitigated by an overall long-term sense of direction. A more suitable approach to manage the internal and external complexities that organisations are currently confronting is to alter their dominant culture under the principles of MBV.