The Analysis of interval censoring and double censoring via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

L'Anàlisi de la supervivència s'utilitza en diferents camps per analitzar el temps transcorregut entre dos esdeveniments. El que distingeix l'anàlisi de la supervivència d'altres àrees de l'estadística és que les dades normalment estan censurades. La censura en un interval apareix quan l'esdeveniment final d'interès no és directament observable i només se sap que el temps de fallada està en un interval concret. Un esquema de censura més complex encara apareix quan tant el temps inicial com el temps final estan censurats en un interval. Aquesta situació s'anomena doble censura. En aquest article donem una descripció formal d'un mètode bayesà paramètric per a l'anàlisi de dades censurades en un interval i dades doblement censurades així com unes indicacions clares de la seva utilització o pràctica. La metodologia proposada s'ilustra amb dades d'una cohort de pacients hemofílics que es varen infectar amb el virus VIH a principis dels anys 1980's.

Point-occurrence self-similarity in crackling-noise systems and in other complex systems

It has been recently found that a number of systems displaying crackling noise also show a remarkable behavior regarding the temporal occurrence of successive events versus their size: a scaling law for the probability distributions of waiting times as a function of a minimum size is fulfilled, signaling the existence on those systems of self-similarity in time-size. This property is also present in some non-crackling systems. Here, the uncommon character of the scaling law is illustrated with simple marked renewal processes, built by definition with no correlations. Whereas processes with a finite mean waiting time do not fulfill a scaling law in general and tend towards a Poisson process in the limit of very high sizes, processes without a finite mean tend to another class of distributions, characterized by double power-law waiting-time densities. This is somehow reminiscent of the generalized central limit theorem. A model with short-range correlations is not able to escape from the attraction of those limit distributions. A discussion on open problems in the modeling of these properties is provided.

Tracking the invisible hand: Convergence of double auctions to competitive equilibrium

Economics is the science of want and scarcity. We show that want andscarcity, operating within a simple exchange institution (double auction),are sufficient for an economy consisting of multiple inter--related marketsto attain competitive equilibrium (CE). We generalize Gode and Sunder's(1993a, 1993b) single--market finding to multi--market economies, andexplore the role of the scarcity constraint in convergence of economies to CE.When the scarcity constraint is relaxed by allowing arbitrageurs in multiple markets to enter speculative trades, prices still converge to CE,but allocative efficiency of the economy drops. \\Optimization by individual agents, often used to derive competitive equilibria,are unnecessary for an actual economy to approximately attain such equilibria.From the failure of humans to optimize in complex tasks, one need not concludethat the equilibria derived from the competitive model are descriptivelyirrelevant. We show that even in complex economic systems, such equilibriacan be attained under a range of surprisingly weak assumptions about agentbehavior.

Efficiency and environmental regulation: a 'complex situation'

Production of desirable outputs is often accompanied by undesirable by products that have damaging effects on the environment, and whose disposal is frequently regulated by public authorities. In this paper, we compute directional technology distance functions under particular assumptions concerning disposability of bads in order to test for the existence of what we call ‘complex situations’, where the biggest producer is not the greatest polluter. Furthermore, we show that how in such situations, environmental regulation could achieve an effective reduction in the aggregate level of bad outputs without reducing the production of good outputs. Finally, we illustrate our methodology with an empirical application to a sample of Spanish tile ceramic producers.

Empiricism in ecological economics: a perspective from complex systems theory

Economies are open complex adaptive systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and neo-classical environmental economics seems not to be the best way to describe the behaviour of such systems. Standard econometric analysis (i.e. time series) takes a deterministic and predictive approach, which encourages the search for predictive policy to ‘correct’ environmental problems. Rather, it seems that, because of the characteristics of economic systems, an ex-post analysis is more appropriate, which describes the emergence of such systems’ properties, and which sees policy as a social steering mechanism. With this background, some of the recent empirical work published in the field of ecological economics that follows the approach defended here is presented. Finally, the conclusion is reached that a predictive use of econometrics (i.e. time series analysis) in ecological economics should be limited to cases in which uncertainty decreases, which is not the normal situation when analysing the evolution of economic systems. However, that does not mean we should not use empirical analysis. On the contrary, this is to be encouraged, but from a structural and ex-post point of view.

Double implementation in a market for indivisible goods with a price constraint

I consider the problem of assigning agents to objects where each agent must pay the price of the object he gets and prices must sum to a given number. The objective is to select an assignment-price pair that is envy-free with respect to the true preferences. I prove that the proposed mechanism will implement both in Nash and strong Nash the set of envy-free allocations. The distinguishing feature of the mechanism is that it treats the announced preferences as the true ones and selects an envy-free allocation with respect to the announced preferences.

Accuracy vs. simplicity: a complex trade-off

Inductive learning aims at finding general rules that hold true in a database. Targeted learning seeks rules for the predictions of the value of a variable based on the values of others, as in the case of linear or non-parametric regression analysis. Non-targeted learning finds regularities without a specific prediction goal. We model the product of non-targeted learning as rules that state that a certain phenomenon never happens, or that certain conditions necessitate another. For all types of rules, there is a trade-off between the rule's accuracy and its simplicity. Thus rule selection can be viewed as a choice problem, among pairs of degree of accuracy and degree of complexity. However, one cannot in general tell what is the feasible set in the accuracy-complexity space. Formally, we show that finding out whether a point belongs to this set is computationally hard. In particular, in the context of linear regression, finding a small set of variables that obtain a certain value of R2 is computationally hard. Computational complexity may explain why a person is not always aware of rules that, if asked, she would find valid. This, in turn, may explain why one can change other people's minds (opinions, beliefs) without providing new information.

Implementing a double dividend: recycling ecotaxes towards lower labour taxes

In this paper we follow the tradition of applied general equilibrium modelling of the Walrasian static variety to study the empirical viability of a double dividend (green, welfare, and employment) in the Spanish economy. We consider a counterfactual scenario in which an ecotax is levied on the intermediate and final use of energy goods. Under a revenue neutral assumption, we evaluate the real income and employment impact of lowering payroll taxes. To appraise to what extent the model structure and behavioural assumptions may influence the results, we perform simulations under a range of alternative model and policy scenarios. We conclude that a double dividend –better environmental quality, as measured by reduced CO2 emissions, and improved levels of employment– may be an achievable goal of economic policy.

Periodic orbits in complex Abel equation

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

A relative double commutant theorem for hereditary sub-C*-algebras

We prove a double commutant theorem for hereditary subalgebras of a large class of C*-algebras, partially resolving a problem posed by Pedersen[8]. Double commutant theorems originated with von Neumann, whose seminal result evolved into an entire field now called von Neumann algebra theory. Voiculescu proved a C*-algebraic double commutant theorem for separable subalgebras of the Calkin algebra. We prove a similar result for hereditary subalgebras which holds for arbitrary corona C*-algebras. (It is not clear how generally Voiculescu's double commutant theorem holds.)

Propietats d'absorció bifotònica del tetrafenilporficè i el seu complex de palladi: potencials sensibilitzadors per a Teràpia Fotodinàmica bifotònica.

Estudi elaborat a partir d’una estada a la Universitat de Aarhus, Dinamarca, durant juliol 2006. En el present treball s’investiguen, per primer cop, les propietats de absorció bifotòniques del fotosensibilitzador 2,7,12,17-tetrafenilporficè (TPPo) i del seu complex de pal•ladi (II) (PdTPPo). Ambos compostos han rebut molta atenció com a possibles otosensibilitzadors per a Teràpia Fotodinàmica (TFD). S’utilitza la detecció de la fosforescència de l’oxigen singlet, centrada a 1270 nm i produïda per l’absorció de dos fotons, per quantificar la magnitud de la secció d’absorció bifotònica, "delta", dels porficèns estudiats. Els experiments se han dut a terme en el marge espectral 750-850 nm i a l’infraroig proper a 1100nm. Aquestes longituds d’ona corresponen a les zones d’absorció bifotònica en les bandes de Soret i Q. Les propietats bifotòniques obtingudes es comparen i contrasten amb les dades conegudes de la tetrafenilporfirina (TPP), isòmer estructural del tetrafenilporficè però amb més gran simetria, i es troba que en la banda de Soret (que coincideix amb la regió de la pell més transparent) els valors de delta per el TPPo i PdTPPo son aproximadament 2000 GM en el màxim, pràcticament cent vegades més grans que per la TPP. A més a més, aquestos valors son dos ordres de magnitud més grans que els obtinguts a l’irradiar a 1100 nm (bandes Q). Aquestes observacions es poden explicar mitjançant la amplificació per ressonància deguda a la presència de transicions monofotòniques ressonants en la regió de les bandes Q. Els elevats valors de "delta" obtinguts per els tetrafenilporficèns estudiats junt a les principals característiques que aquestos presenten (elevat rendiment de formació d’oxigen singlet, estabilitat química i fotoquímica, absència de citotoxicitat,...) qualifiquen al TPPo y PdTPPo com a possibles fotosensibilitzadors per a Teràpia Fotodinàmica Bifotònica.

Model structures on the category of small double categories

In this paper we obtain several model structures on DblCat, the category of small double categories. Our model structures have three sources. We first transfer across a categorification-nerve adjunction. Secondly, we view double categories as internal categories in Cat and take as our weak equivalences various internal equivalences defined via Grothendieck topologies. Thirdly, DblCat inherits a model structure as a category of algebras over a 2-monad. Some of these model structures coincide and the different points of view give us further results about cofibrant replacements and cofi brant objects. As part of this program we give explicit descriptions and discuss properties of free double categories, quotient double categories, colimits of double categories, and several nerves and categorifications.

Construcció i explotació d’un complex de turisme rural a la població d’Àreu (Pirineu de Lleida)

Aquest treball de fi de carrera pretén desenvolupar el pla de negoci per a la construcció i l’explotació d’un complex de turisme rural al Pallars Sobirà. El projecte compren l’enderroc de les construccions preexistents, construcció i posterior explotació d’apartaments d’ús turístic i una cafeteria a la població d’ Àreu. Dins el pla de negoci s’hi contemplen els plans comercial, financer, l’anàlisi del mercat i l’entorn i una acurada definició del servei que s’oferirà. Amb el treball es vol, doncs, aportar idees pràctiques i útils per a la consecució dels objectius plantejats en el projecte familiar.

Modelling of bird distribution under complex mediterranean landscape dynamics: open habitat birds and fire (MEDFIRE)

Report for the scientific sojourn at the Simon Fraser University, Canada, from July to September 2007. General context: landscape change during the last years is having significant impacts on biodiversity in many Mediterranean areas. Land abandonment, urbanisation and specially fire are profoundly transforming large areas in the Western Mediterranean basin and we know little on how these changes influence species distribution and in particular how these species will respond to further change in a context of global change including climate. General objectives: integrate landscape and population dynamics models in a platform allowing capturing species distribution responses to landscape changes and assessing impact on species distribution of different scenarios of further change. Specific objective 1: develop a landscape dynamic model capturing fire and forest succession dynamics in Catalonia and linked to a stochastic landscape occupancy (SLOM) (or spatially explicit population, SEPM) model for the Ortolan bunting, a species strongly linked to fire related habitat in the region. Predictions from the occupancy or spatially explicit population Ortolan bunting model (SEPM) should be evaluated using data from the DINDIS database. This database tracks bird colonisation of recently burnt big areas (&50 ha). Through a number of different SEPM scenarios with different values for a number of parameter, we should be able to assess different hypothesis in factors driving bird colonisation in new burnt patches. These factors to be mainly, landscape context (i.e. difficulty to reach the patch, and potential presence of coloniser sources), dispersal constraints, type of regenerating vegetation after fire, and species characteristics (niche breadth, etc).

Solid-phase synthesis and NMR studies of modified oligonucleotides forming triplex helix and of oligonucleopeptides mimicking the topoisomerase I-DNA covalent complex

Report for the scientific sojourn carried out at the Institut de Biologia Molecular de Barcelona of the CSIC –state agency – from april until september 2007. Topoisomerase I is an essential nuclear enzyme that modulates the topological status of DNA, facilitating DNA helix unwinding during replication and transcription. We have prepared the oligonucleotide-peptide conjugate Ac-NLeu-Asn-Tyr(p-3’TTCAGAAGC5’)-LeuC-CONH-(CH2)6-OH as model compound for NMR studies of the Topoisomerase I- DNA complex. Special attention was made on the synthetic aspects for the preparation of this challenging compound especially solid supports and protecting groups. The desired peptide was obtained although we did not achieve the amount of the conjugate needed for NMR studies. Most probably the low yield is due to the intrinsic sensitive to hydrolysis of the phosphate bond between oligonucleotide and tyrosine. We have started the synthesis and the structural characterization of oligonucleotides carrying intercalating compounds. At the present state we have obtained model duplex and quadruplex sequences modified with acridine and NMR studies are underway. In addition to this project we have successfully resolved the structure of a fusion peptide derived from hepatitis C virus envelope synthesized by the group of Dr. Haro and we have synthesized and started the characterization of a modified G-quadruplex.