Local Distance-Based Generalized Linear Models using the dbstats package for R

This paper introduces local distance-based generalized linear models. These models extend (weighted) distance-based linear models firstly with the generalized linear model concept, then by localizing. Distances between individuals are the only predictor information needed to fit these models. Therefore they are applicable to mixed (qualitative and quantitative) explanatory variables or when the regressor is of functional type. Models can be fitted and analysed with the R package dbstats, which implements several distancebased prediction methods.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Bootstrapping pairs in Distance-Based Regression

La regressió basada en distàncies és un mètode de predicció que consisteix en dos passos: a partir de les distàncies entre observacions obtenim les variables latents, les quals passen a ser els regressors en un model lineal de mínims quadrats ordinaris. Les distàncies les calculem a partir dels predictors originals fent us d'una funció de dissimilaritats adequada. Donat que, en general, els regressors estan relacionats de manera no lineal amb la resposta, la seva selecció amb el test F usual no és possible. En aquest treball proposem una solució a aquest problema de selecció de predictors definint tests estadístics generalitzats i adaptant un mètode de bootstrap no paramètric per a l'estimació dels p-valors. Incluim un exemple numèric amb dades de l'assegurança d'automòbils.

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.

An Analysis of black-box optimization problems in reinsurance: evolutionary-based approaches

Black-box optimization problems (BBOP) are de ned as those optimization problems in which the objective function does not have an algebraic expression, but it is the output of a system (usually a computer program). This paper is focussed on BBOPs that arise in the eld of insurance, and more speci cally in reinsurance problems. In this area, the complexity of the models and assumptions considered to de ne the reinsurance rules and conditions produces hard black-box optimization problems, that must be solved in order to obtain the optimal output of the reinsurance. The application of traditional optimization approaches is not possible in BBOP, so new computational paradigms must be applied to solve these problems. In this paper we show the performance of two evolutionary-based techniques (Evolutionary Programming and Particle Swarm Optimization). We provide an analysis in three BBOP in reinsurance, where the evolutionary-based approaches exhibit an excellent behaviour, nding the optimal solution within a fraction of the computational cost used by inspection or enumeration methods.

Decision-making with distance measures and inducedaggregation operators

[spa] Se presenta un nuevo modelo para la toma de decisiones basado en el uso de medidas de distancia y de operadores de agregación inducidos. Se introduce la distancia media ponderada ordenada inducida (IOWAD). Es un nuevo operador de agregación que extiende el operador OWA a través del uso de distancias y un proceso de reordenación de los argumentos basado en variables de ordenación inducidas. La principal ventaja el operador IOWAD es la posibilidad de utilizar una familia parametrizada de operadores de agregación entre la distancia individual máxima y la mínima. Se estudian algunas de sus principales propiedades y algunos casos particulares. Se desarrolla un ejemplo numérico en un problema de toma de decisiones sobre selección de inversiones. Se observa que la principal ventaja de este modelo en la toma de decisiones es la posibilidad de mostrar una visión más completa del proceso, de forma que el decisor está capacitado para seleccionar la alternativa que está más cerca de sus intereses.

Decision-making with distance measures and inducedaggregation operators

[spa] Se presenta un nuevo modelo para la toma de decisiones basado en el uso de medidas de distancia y de operadores de agregación inducidos. Se introduce la distancia media ponderada ordenada inducida (IOWAD). Es un nuevo operador de agregación que extiende el operador OWA a través del uso de distancias y un proceso de reordenación de los argumentos basado en variables de ordenación inducidas. La principal ventaja el operador IOWAD es la posibilidad de utilizar una familia parametrizada de operadores de agregación entre la distancia individual máxima y la mínima. Se estudian algunas de sus principales propiedades y algunos casos particulares. Se desarrolla un ejemplo numérico en un problema de toma de decisiones sobre selección de inversiones. Se observa que la principal ventaja de este modelo en la toma de decisiones es la posibilidad de mostrar una visión más completa del proceso, de forma que el decisor está capacitado para seleccionar la alternativa que está más cerca de sus intereses.

The Pelosi-type versus the modified Misgav-Ladach: a randomized trial of two surgical techniques for cesarean section

Cesarean section (CS) is now the most common major surgical procedure performed on women worldwide. A quarter of deliveries in Spain are performed by cesarean section. With the increasing rates of the operation, there is the need to use evidence-based techniques to optimize outcomes and minimize complications. The goal of this study is to employ a well-designed randomized controlled trial to evaluate the intraoperative blood loss of two surgical techniques for cesarean section, the Pelosi-type and the modified Misgav-Ladach. The trial will take place in Hospital Universitari de Girona Dr. Josep Trueta From 2014 to 2015, 512 pregnant women undergoing delivery by their first lower segment cesarean section in this center will be selected through a consecutive nonprobability sampling. We will collect the main obstetrical characteristics, intraoperative outcomes, short-term outcomes for the baby and postoperative outcomes. We will evaluate the intraoperative blood loss by comparing the changes in hemoglobin levels, pre and postoperatively. Patients will be followed during the postoperative period and in a two-week postoperative appointment. We will analyze the continuous variables, such as the differences in hemoglobin levels, using an unpaired two-sided Student’s t-test, while for the categorical variables Fischer’s exact test will be used

Development of specific ITS markers for plant DNA identification within herbivorous insects

DNA based techniques have proved to be very useful methods to study trophic relationships 17 between pests and their natural enemies. However, most predators are best defined as omnivores, 18 and the identification of plant-specific DNA should also allow the identification of the plant 19 species the predators have been feeding on. In this study, a PCR approach based on the 20 development of specific primers was developed as a self-marking technique to detect plant DNA 21 within the gut of one heteropteran omnivorous predator (Macrolophus pygmaeus) and two 22 lepidopteran pest species (Helicoverpa armigera and Tuta absoluta). Specific tomato primers 23 were designed from the ITS 1-2 region, which allowed the amplification of a tomato DNA 24 fragment of 332 bp within the three insect species tested in all cases (100% of detection at t = 0) 25 and did not detect DNA of other plants nor of the starved insects. Plant DNA half-lives at 25ºC 26 ranged from 5.8h, to 27.7h and 28.7h within M. pygmaeus, H. armigera and T. absoluta, 27 respectively. Tomato DNA detection within field collected M. pygmaeus suggests dietary mixing 28 in this omnivorous predator and showed a higher detection of tomato DNA in females and 29 nymphs than males. This study provides a useful tool to detect and to identify plant food sources 30 of arthropods and to evaluate crop colonization from surrounding vegetation in conservation 31 biological control programs.

Mejorando la robustez de aplicaciones frente a fallos transitorios

Computer chips implementation technologies evolving to obtain more performance are increasing the probability of transient faults. As this probability grows and on-chip solutions are expensive or tend to degrade processor performance, the efforts to deal with these transient faults in higher levels (such as the operating system or even at the application level) are increasing. Mostly, these efforts are trying to avoid silent data corruptions using hardware, software and hybrid based techniques to add redundancy to detect the errors generated by the transient faults. This work presents our proposal to improve the robustness of applications with source code based transformation adding redundancy. Also, our proposal takes account of the tradeoff between the improved robustness and the overhead generated by the added redundancy.

Xat Segur

En aquest treball de final de carrera es procura resoldre el problema de la seguretat informàtica en les comunicacions entre dues entitats per a poder protegir la informació sensible quan viatgi per la xarxa. Per fer-ho, s?utilitzen una sèrie de tècniques basades en la criptografia.

Interacting software-agents to support a kind of expert supervision systems

Expert supervision systems are software applications specially designed to automate process monitoring. The goal is to reduce the dependency on human operators to assure the correct operation of a process including faulty situations. Construction of this kind of application involves an important task of design and development in order to represent and to manipulate process data and behaviour at different degrees of abstraction for interfacing with data acquisition systems connected to the process. This is an open problem that becomes more complex with the number of variables, parameters and relations to account for the complexity of the process. Multiple specialised modules tuned to solve simpler tasks that operate under a co-ordination provide a solution. A modular architecture based on concepts of software agents, taking advantage of the integration of diverse knowledge-based techniques, is proposed for this purpose. The components (software agents, communication mechanisms and perception/action mechanisms) are based on ICa (Intelligent Control architecture), software middleware supporting the build-up of applications with software agent features

The Geographical Scope of Industrial Location Determinants: An Alternative Approach

This paper considers the estimation of the geographical scope of industrial location determinants. While previous studies impose strong assumptions on the weighting scheme of the spatial neighbour matrix, we propose a exible parametrisation that allows for di fferent (distance-based) de finitions of neighbourhood and di fferent weights to the neighbours. In particular, we estimate how far can reach indirect marginal e ffects and discuss how to report them. We also show that the use of smooth transition functions provides tools for policy analysis that are not available in the traditional threshold modelling. Keywords: count data models, industrial location, smooth transition functions, threshold models. JEL-Codes: C25, C52, R11, R30.

Reliable detection of directional couplings using rank statistics

To detect directional couplings from time series various measures based on distances in reconstructed state spaces were introduced. These measures can, however, be biased by asymmetries in the dynamics' structure, noise color, or noise level, which are ubiquitous in experimental signals. Using theoretical reasoning and results from model systems we identify the various sources of bias and show that most of them can be eliminated by an appropriate normalization. We furthermore diminish the remaining biases by introducing a measure based on ranks of distances. This rank-based measure outperforms existing distance-based measures concerning both sensitivity and specificity for directional couplings. Therefore, our findings are relevant for a reliable detection of directional couplings from experimental signals.

Toward integrated management of cerebral aneurysms

In the last few years, some of the visionary concepts behind the virtual physiological human began to be demonstrated on various clinical domains, showing great promise for improving healthcare management. In the current work, we provide an overview of image- and biomechanics-based techniques that, when put together, provide a patient-specific pipeline for the management of intracranial aneurysms. The derivation and subsequent integration of morphological, morphodynamic, haemodynamic and structural analyses allow us to extract patient-specific models and information from which diagnostic and prognostic descriptors can be obtained. Linking such new indices with relevant clinical events should bring new insights into the processes behind aneurysm genesis, growth and rupture. The development of techniques for modelling endovascular devices such as stents and coils allows the evaluation of alternative treatment scenarios before the intervention takes place and could also contribute to the understanding and improved design of more effective devices. A key element to facilitate the clinical take-up of all these developments is their comprehensive validation. Although a number of previously published results have shown the accuracy and robustness of individual components, further efforts should be directed to demonstrate the diagnostic and prognostic efficacy of these advanced tools through large-scale clinical trials.