How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility and volatility. Narrower bands should give less scope for the exchange rate to fluctuate but may make agents perceive a larger probability of realignment which by itself should increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We build a model where this trade-off is made explicit. The model is used to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most EMS countries after their target zones were widened on August 1993. As a natural extension, the model also rationalizes the existence of non-official, implicit target zones (or fear of floating), suggested by some authors.

Fear assessment in pigs exposed to a novel object test

The experiment aimed to study approach and locomotive behaviour as indicators of fear in a novel object test carried out in pigs. Thirty post-weaning (30 kg) and 30 finishing (90 kg) pigs were exposed to visual, auditory and olfactory novel stimuli during 2 different experiments. The facilities consisted of a test pen in which a trough was located. The trough contained chopped apples. Once the animals were trained to enter the test pen individually they were subjected to 3 different fear stimuli. These stimuli were applied in the test pen and next to the trough. The variables studied were feeding behaviour, approach behaviour (the distance and position of the animal with respect to the trough) and locomotive behaviour (general activity, reluctance to move, turning back and retreat attempts). Two groups were studied: saline and midazolam treated group. Twenty minutes before the start of the sessions, 15 post-weaning and finishing pigs received an intramuscular injection of 0.20 and 0.15 mg/kg, respectively, midazolam (Dormicum1). The saline pigs (15 animals per group) were injected with saline. The administration of midazolam increased the feeding behaviour and approaching behaviour, and reduced the locomotive behaviour. In front of the visual and olfactory stimuli post-weaning pigs showed a higher general activity than finishing pigs, but the contrary was found when the auditory stimulus was applied. The olfactory stimulus was more related to the turning back behaviour, whereas the visual stimulus was more related to retreat attempts. Although it could be concluded that reluctant to move was the most common response to the different fear stimuli applied in our study regardless of the age of animals, the combination of reluctant to move and turning back would be a good criterion to assess fear in domestic pigs. The use of midazolam as anxiolytic for studies of fear in commercial conditions in pigs is recommended.

Carbon and nitrogen partitioning during post-anthesis is conditioned by N fertilization and sink strength in three cereals

Further knowledge of the processes conditioning nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) is of great relevance to crop productivity. The aim of this paper was characterise C and N partitioning during grain filling and their implications for NUE. Cereals such as bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cv Califa sur), triticale (× Triticosecale Wittmack cv. Imperioso) and tritordeum (× Tritordeum Asch. & Graebn line HT 621) were grown under low (LN, 5 mm NH4NO3) and high (HN, 15 mm NH4NO3) N conditions. We conducted simultaneous double labelling (12CO2 and 15NH415NO3) in order to characterise C and N partitioning during grain filling. Although triticale plants showed the largest total and ear dry matter values in HN conditions, the large investment in shoot and root biomass negatively affected ear NUE. Tritordeum was the only genotype that increased NUE in both N treatments (NUEtotal), whereas in wheat, no significant effect was detected. N labelling revealed that N fertilisation during post-anthesis was more relevant for wheat and tritordeum grain filling than for triticale. The study also revealed that the investments of C and N in flag leaves and shoots, together with the"waste" of photoassimilates in respiration, conditioned the NUE of plants, and especially under LN. These results suggest that C and N use by these plants needs to be improved in order to increase ear C and N sinks, especially under LN. It is also remarkable that even though tritordeum shows the largest increase in NUE, the low yield of this cereal limits its agronomic value.

A non-extensive maximum entropy based regulations method for bad conditioned inverse problems

A regularization method based on the non-extensive maximum entropy principle is devised. Special emphasis is given to the q=1/2 case. We show that, when the residual principle is considered as constraint, the q=1/2 generalized distribution of Tsallis yields a regularized solution for bad-conditioned problems. The so devised regularized distribution is endowed with a component which corresponds to the well known regularized solution of Tikhonov (1977).

Confirmatory factor analysis of an inventory of perception of insecurity and fear of crime

This paper focuses on the study of the factorial structure of an inventory to estimate the subjective perception of insecurity and fear of crime. Made from the review of the literature on the subject and the results obtained in previous works, this factor structure shows that this attitude towards insecurity and fear of crime is identified through a number of latent factors which are schematically summarized in (a) personal safety, (b) the perception of personal and social control, (c) the presence of threatening people or situations, (d) the processes of identity and space appropriation, (e) satisfaction with the environment, and (f) the environmental and the use of space. Such factors are relevant dimensions to analyze the phenomenon. Method: A sample of 571 participants in a neighborhood of Barcelona was evaluated with the proposed inventory, which yielded data from the distributions of all the items provided. The administration was conducted by researchers specially trained for it and the results were analyzed by using standard procedures in the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) from the hypothesized theoretical structure. The analysis was performed by decatypes according to the different response scales prepared in the inventory and their ordinal nature, and by estimating the polychoric correlation coefficients. The results show an acceptable fit of the proposed model, an appropriate behavior of the residuals and statistically significant estimates of the factor loadings. This would indicate the goodness of the proposed factor structure.

Regional returns to physical capital: are they conditioned by educational attainment?

This paper provides novel empirical evidence of the indirect effect of educational attainment on regional economic growth, through its influence on the profitability of investment in physical capital. We test the hypothesis that the regional heterogeneity of the return to physical capital can be directly related to the existing heterogeneity in the educational attainment of workers. The results for the Spanish case support our hypothesis that the higher the educational attainment of workers the greater the returns on investment in physical capital. In fact, this effect seems to be sufficiently strong to have counterbalanced the traditional mechanism of decreasing returns to capital accumulation.

On dictatorship, economic development and stability

This paper aims to account for varying economic performances and political stability under dictatorship. We argue that economic welfare and social order are the contemporary relevant factors of political regimes' stability. Societies with low natural level of social order tend to tolerate predatory behavior from dictators in exchange of a provision of civil peace. The fear of anarchy may explain why populations are locked in the worst dictatorships. In contrast, in societies enjoying a relative natural civil peace, dictatorship is less likely to be predatory because low economic welfare may destabilize it.

Milk, from medicine to food Mediterranean Europe: Catalonia, 19th-20th centuries

The spread of milk consumption was a significant change in the diet of Europeans, however it is one that has not been greatly studied with regard to the populations of Mediterranean Europe. In this article we shall analyse the ain circumstances that conditioned that process in Catalonia between the middle of the 19th century and 1936. In our study we shall argue that the consumption of milk in this area was only relevant in the 19th century in situations of illness or old age, and that it subsequently increased and acquired a new significance as a result of various factors. In particular, we shall emphasise: (a) the scientific advances in microbiology and nutrition, (b) the activities carried out by doctors and various public institutions to promote the consumption of fresh milk, and (c) the technological innovations in the milk producing sector. In Appendix 1 we show two maps representing the main territorial references that we shall mention.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

La influència del dolor i els factors relacionats amb el dolor sobre el nivell de funcionament dels joves entre 8 i 16 anys d'edat

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada al Pain Management Unit de la University of Bath-Royal National Hospital for Rheumatic Disease, a Gran Bretanya, entre juliol i octubre del 2006. El dolor i la discapacitat que hi va associada són experiències comunes. Les relacions entre variables de tipus biològic, social i psicològic han estat rarament investigades en mostres de nens que informen de dolor però extrets de contextos no clínics. L’objectiu d'aquest estudi va ser identificar els predictors de funcionament ens nens escolaritzats, que informaven que el dolor era una experiència força freqüent. Mig miler de nens d'entre 8 i 16 anys i els seus pares van participar en aquest estudi de disseny transversal. Informació de tipus biològic, social i psicològic era recollida a través d'entrevistes individualitzades amb els nens i la complementació de qüestionaris auto-informats per pares. El nivell funcionament del nen va ser avaluat a partir de 4 indicadors: auto-informes de qualitat de vida, assistència a l'escola, implicació en activitats físiques i/o esportives fòra de l'escola, i implicació en activitats de tipus sedentari. Es van recollir diversos tipus de variables psicològiques referents a l’afrontament del nen davant del dolor i tipus d'atenció dels pares a les conductes de dolor dels seu fill. Els resultats mostren un patró variable en funció de la mesura de funcionament específica utilitzada. Més específicament, s'ha proposat que la resposta de por a les experiències de dolor diàries pot ser un important predictor de funcionament. Són necessaris més estudis sobre la relació entre dolor i nivell d'implicació en conductes actives o sedentàries en nens.

Inseguridad ciudadana subjetiva/miedo al delito: límites para la viabilidad de la transferencia de políticas de seguridad

Proyecto de investigación realizado a partir de una estancia en el Centre of Criminology de la University of Toronto, Canadà, entre 2006 y 2008. El miedo al delito como ámbito temático lleva 40 años de andadura y cuenta con cientos de investigaciones en su acervo. Dicha subdisciplina ha utilizado la expresión “miedo al delito” para referirse a un conjunto de conceptos académicos que ella misma va desarrollando, así como a lo que considera una experiencia subjetiva que pretende estudiar. Tanto el concepto como la experiencia han sido vagamente catalogados de respuesta emocional frente al delito o imágenes asociadas a éste. A pesar de los estudios más empíricos y de las teorías más positivistas, que tratan el miedo al delito como un fenómeno que puede ser medido y a cuyo conocimiento nos podemos ir aproximando cada vez con mayor precisión, con el trabajo de este proyecto se puede concluir que el miedo al delito constituye un elemento semántico-conceptual de las categorías académica y popular de delito. Los enfoques culturalistas o hermenéuticos han apuntado esta cuestión pero, simultáneamente, han seguido admitiendo la complementariedad entre enfoques. En principio, admitir el valor constitutivo del miedo al delito en la noción de delito parece que no excluye la necesidad de conocer si los temores a ser víctima de un delito han aumentado en nuestra ciudad, ni el saber por qué ello ha sido así. Apropiarse de tales saberes tal vez sea la única forma de aislar factores discretos que puedan ser manipulados en políticas públicas para erradicar el temor cuyo incremento se supone verificado con las mediciones. Sin embargo, puesto que lo registrado han sido actitudes cognitivas y no emociones, los eventuales programas de intervención deberían ser ideados en el mejor de los casos, con la misma complejidad que la propia formación de creencias lo que lo haría inoperativo. Acción bianual.

Índexos indicadors de l'estat de l'ecosistema costaner: influència dels factors físoco-químics en l'ecologia del plàncton

La tesi en projecte aborda l’estudi multiescala de la relació entre la variabilitat de la turbulència i els nutrients, i l’estructura i la dinàmica de l’ecosistema costaner en el Mediterrani noroccidental. A partir d’experiments al laboratori i de diferents campanyes al mar, es pretén generar indicadors de funcionament de l’ecosistema planctònic sensibles a variacions hidrodinàmiques. L’efecte conjunt de la turbulència i els nutrients es preveu condicionat no únicament per la magnitud d’ambdues variables, sino també per la relació temporal entre els episodis de turbulència i els aports de nutrients. Per tal de tenir una casuística més àmplia de validació dels indicadors, s’han seleccionat tres àrees d’estudi properes a les desembocadures de rius amb aports de nutrients de concentracions relatives molt variables. La finalitat última del treball és millorar la comprensió del funcionament de l’ecosistema costaner en la interfase terra-mar per a una gestió més eficaç dels recursos.

Jugant amb l'atzar i la probabilitat

Treball de recerca realitzat per un alumne d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit cientí­fic del Jovent l'any 2009. Quins científics van interessar-se per la probabilitat en els seus inicis?, quins altres van fer-la evolucionar? i quins conceptes coneixem i apliquem a l'actualitat? són preguntes que el treball teòric es proposa respondre. Pel que fa a la part pràctica del treball, el seu objectiu és el de crear un mecanisme capaç de generar nombres aleatoris a partir d'un taulell condicionat per paràmetres. El treball s'estructura en 4 blocs que aborden diversos camps de la probabilitat: la història de la probabilitat, els conceptes bàsics de la probabilitat, una introducció pràctica al mecanisme aleatori i el treball de camp. Els resultats finals rebel·len la possibilitat de generar nombres aleatoris a partir d'aparells senzills.

Estudi comparatiu del sòl d'una vinya de Sant Pere de Ribes

Treball de recerca realitzat per una alumna d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. Anàlisi comparatiu de diferents propietats del sòl d’una vinya on s’ha observat que els peus presenten un creixement desigual. A partir d'una observació a simple vista de les plantes de la vinya i del sòl sobre el qual es desenvolupen, es proposa la hipòtesi de que el sòl pot ser un factor determinant per aquest creixement desigual. Després de fer una recerca bibliogràfica sobre l’edafologia, les propietats del sòl i els tipus de sòl que es poden trobar als voltants de Sant Pere de Ribes, l’autora ha fet una selecció de propietats físico-químiques que poden estar més relacionades amb el creixement de les plantes. Després de fer el mostreig i seguir els protocols de laboratori s’han analitzat els resultats i s’han redactat les conclusions. Les propietats estudiades han permès determinar els tipus de sòl, uns sòls de textures entre franco-arenoses i areno-franques. S’ha trobat també una correlació entre les diverses propietats estudiades: un sòl de porositat elevada, que presenta valors alts de velocitat d’infiltració i per tant amb baixa capacitat de retenció d’aigua disponible, no sembla el sòl ideal per al desenvolupament de les plantes de vinya. A partir del treball es plantegen noves incògnites sobre les adaptacions dels ceps a aquests tipus de sòl o sobre la qualitat del raïm que s'hi pot desenvolupar.