Equity and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment

Emissions distribution is a focus variable for the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with a popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities.

Anàlisi dels coneixements intuïtius i del canvi conceptual en infants de parvulari, sobre els animals que viuen el seu entorn

En aquest projecte es reflexiona sobre l’ensenyament de les ciències al parvulari i com els infants aprenent conceptes relacionats amb el regne animal. La ciència escolar classifica la gran diversitat d’espècies que formen aquest regne en dos grans blocs, els vertebrats i els invertebrats, però en els patrons que ens ofereixen els animals per descobrir a ull nu aquestes particularitats són molt complexes d’observar. La visió que tenen els infants de parvulari sobre els animals del seu entorn sovint és molt allunyada de la realitat i els alumnes es creen concepcions alternatives per entendre els animals que observen. En l’estudi es realitza un recull de dades, a l’inici i el final d’una unitat didàctica, analitzant les representacions i les diferents formes de classificació dels animals de l’entorn que utilitzen els infants. Les conclusions són una reflexió sobre el perquè d’aquests coneixements alternatius i la manera de com aconseguir un canvi conceptual.

Anàlisi de les idees prèvies d’alumnes d’educació primària sobre astronomia

Els coneixements previs són el punt de partida per a construir un coneixement de forma significativa. Cal analitzar-los i tenir consciència dels models mentals dels infants per a poder fer un canvi conceptual que ens porti del coneixement intuïtiu al coneixement científic. És per això que aquesta investigació fa un anàlisi d’aquests coneixements en el contingut d’astronomia. El mètode de recollir les dades és fa a través d’una entrevista a 10 nens i nenes de 6 a 7 anys d’una escola pública de Sabadell. Les dades interpretades es representen en taules i gràfics. Els resultats ens demostren que l’experiència pròpia fa que els infants construeixin els seus propis models mentals.

Effectiveness of a primary care-based intervention to reduce sitting time in overweight and obese patients (SEDESTACTIV): a randomized controlled trial; rationale and study design

Background: There is growing evidence suggesting that prolonged sitting has negative effects on people's weight, chronic diseases and mortality. Interventions to reduce sedentary time can be an effective strategy to increase daily energy expenditure. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of a six-month primary care intervention to reduce daily of sitting time in overweight and mild obese sedentary patients. Method/Design: The study is a randomized controlled trial (RCT). Professionals from thirteen primary health care centers (PHC) will randomly invite to participate mild obese or overweight patients of both gender, aged between 25 and 65 years old, who spend 6 hours at least daily sitting. A total of 232 subjects will be randomly allocated to an intervention (IG) and control group (CG) (116 individuals each group). In addition, 50 subjects with fibromyalgia will be included. Primary outcome is: (1) sitting time using the activPAL device and the Marshall questionnaire. The following parameters will be also assessed: (2) sitting time in work place (Occupational Sitting and Physical Activity Questionnaire), (3) health-related quality of life (EQ-5D), (4) evolution of stage of change (Prochaska and DiClemente's Stages of Change Model), (5) physical inactivity (catalan version of Brief Physical Activity Assessment Tool), (6) number of steps walked (pedometer and activPAL), (7) control based on analysis (triglycerides, total cholesterol, HDL, LDL, glycemia and, glycated haemoglobin in diabetic patients) and (8) blood pressure and anthropometric variables. All parameters will be assessed pre and post intervention and there will be a follow up three, six and twelve months after the intervention. A descriptive analysis of all variables and a multivariate analysis to assess differences among groups will be undertaken. Multivariate analysis will be carried out to assess time changes of dependent variables. All the analysis will be done under the intention to treat principle. Discussion: If the SEDESTACTIV intervention shows its effectiveness in reducing sitting time, health professionals would have a low-cost intervention tool for sedentary overweight and obese patients management.

A genealogical conceptual model using ontologies

Roughly fifteen years ago, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints published a new proposed standard file format. They call it GEDCOM. It was designed to allow different genealogy programs to exchange data.Five years later, in may 2000, appeared the GENTECH Data Modeling Project, with the support of the Federation of Genealogical Societies (FGS) and other American genealogical societies. They attempted to define a genealogical logic data model to facilitate data exchange between different genealogical programs. Although genealogists deal with an enormous variety of data sources, one of the central concepts of this data model was that all genealogical data could be broken down into a series of short, formal genealogical statements. It was something more versatile than only export/import data records on a predefined fields. This project was finally absorbed in 2004 by the National Genealogical Society (NGS).Despite being a genealogical reference in many applications, these models have serious drawbacks to adapt to different cultural and social environments. At the present time we have no formal proposal for a recognized standard to represent the family domain.Here we propose an alternative conceptual model, largely inherited from aforementioned models. The design is intended to overcome their limitations. However, its major innovation lies in applying the ontological paradigm when modeling statements and entities.

Some conceptual difficulties regarding "net" multipliers

Multipliers are routinely used for impact evaluation of private projects and public policies at the national and subnational levels. Oosterhaven and Stelder (2002) correctly pointed out the misuse of standard 'gross' multipliers and proposed the concept of 'net' multiplier as a solution to this bad practice. We prove their proposal is not well founded. We do so by showing that supporting theorems are faulty in enunciation and demonstration. The proofs are flawed due to an analytical error but the theorems themselves cannot be salvaged as generic, non-curiosum counterexamples demonstrate. We also provide a general analytical framework for multipliers and, using it, we show that standard 'gross' multipliers are all that is needed within the interindustry model since they follow the causal logic of the economic model, are well defined and independent of exogenous shocks, and are interpretable as predictors for change.

The transtheoretical model in weight management: Validation of the Processes of Change Questionnaire

Objective: The processes of change implied in weight management remain unclear. The present study aimed to identify these processes by validating a questionnaire designed to assess processes of change (the P-Weight) in line with the transtheoretical model. The relationship of processes of change with stages of change and other external variables is also examined. Methods: Participants were 723 people from community and clinical settings in Barcelona. Their mean age was 32.07 (SD = 14.55) years; most of them were women (75.0%), and their mean BMI was 26.47 (SD = 8.52) kg/m2. They all completed the P-Weight and the stages of change questionnaire (SWeight), both applied to weight management, as well as two subscales from the Eating Disorders Inventory-2 and Eating Attitudes Test-40 questionnaires about the concern with dieting. Results: A 34-item version of the PWeight was obtained by means of a refinement process. The principal components analysis applied to half of the sample identified four processes of change. A confirmatory factor analysis was then carried out with the other half of the sample, revealing that the model of four freely correlated first-order factors showed the best fit (GFI = 0.988, AGFI = 0.986, NFI = 0.986, and SRMR = 0.0559). Corrected item-total correlations (0.322-0.865) and Cronbach"s alpha coefficients (0.781-0.960) were adequate. The relationship between the P-Weight and the S-Weight and the concern with dieting measures from other questionnaires supported the validity of the scale. Conclusion: The study identified processes of change involved in weight management and reports the adequate psychometric properties of the P-Weight. It also reveals the relationship between processes and stages of change and other external variables.

El debat i l"evolució conceptual de la carpeta d"aprenentatge universitària: un reflex del procès de canvi del model educatiu

[cat] La carpeta d'aprenentatge representa un punt de trobada dels grans temes que han ocupat la Didàctica d'ençà dels anys 90 del segle passat: el caràcter formatiu de l'avaluació, l'assumpte de les competències, la metacognició i el pensament crític de l'estudiant, el paper desenvolupat per les TIC, i la concepció d'un aprenentatge col·laboratiu i plantejat a llarg termini. En aquest article de revisió, hom estudia com aquests temes s'han concretat en la carpeta d'aprenentatge i n'han determinat la seva evolució. [eng] The learning portofolio represents a meeting point for the big questions than have concernend teaching since the 1990s: the formative character of the assessment, the issue of competencies, metacognition and the students's critical thinking, the role played by ICTs, and the idea of collaborative learning considered in the long term. The article looks at how these subjects have taken shape in the learning portofolio and how they have determinded its evolutin.

A conceptual model for grid learning services automatic composition

Peer-reviewed

Assessing the structural change of strategic mobility: determinants under hypercompetitive environments

The primary purpose of this exploratory empirical study is to examine the structural stability of a limited number of alternative explanatory factors of strategic change. On the basis of theoretical arguments and prior empirical evidence from two traditional perspectives, we propose an original empirical framework to analyse whether these potential explanatory factors have remained stable over time in a highly turbulent environment. This original question is explored in a particular setting: the population of Spanish private banks. The firms of this industry have experienced a high level of strategic mobility as a consequence of fundamental changes undergone in their environmental conditions over the last two decades (mainly changes related to the new banking and financial regulation process). Our results consistently support that the effect of most explanatory factors of strategic mobility considered did not remain stable over the whole period of analysis. From this point of view, the study sheds new light on major debates and dilemmas in the field of strategy regarding why firms change their competitive patterns over time and, hence, to what extent the "contextdependency" of alternative views of strategic change as their relative validation can vary over time for a given population. Methodologically, this research makes two major contributions to the study of potential determinants of strategic change. First, the definition and measurement of strategic change employing a new grouping method, the Model-based Cluster Method or MCLUST. Second, in order to asses the possible effect of determinants of strategic mobility we have controlled the non-observable heterogeneity using logistic regression models for panel data.

Forecasting volatility using a continuous time model

This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of a continuous stochastic volatility model with two factors of volatility (SV2F) and compares it to those of GARCH and ARFIMA models. The empirical results show that the volatility forecasting ability of the SV2F model is better than that of the GARCH and ARFIMA models, especially when volatility seems to change pattern. We use ex-post volatility as a proxy of the realized volatility obtained from intraday data and the forecasts from the SV2F are calculated using the reprojection technique proposed by Gallant and Tauchen (1998).

Proposta de model per a l'estudi de la negociació col·lectiva. Formulació arran del treball de construcció d'una mostra de convenis col·lectius.

En aquest treball s’explicita de manera molt detallada tot el procés de construcció d’una mostra aleatòria estratificada a partir de l’exemple concret de la construcció d’una mostra de convenis col•lectius. El document incideix especialment en la necessitat de fonamentar teòricament les operacions estadístiques que es porten a terme mitjançant els models d’anàlisi adequats i els marcs teòrics considerats més pertinents. D’aquesta forma es donen exemples, que poden servir de models per a la construcció d’altres mostres, de com enllaçar els nivells empíric i conceptual a l’hora de construir mostres aleatòries estratificades. El principal objectiu del treball és apuntar el requeriment de trencar pràcticament amb la tradicional divisió entre treball conceptual i treball empíric que roman totalment inqüestionada en el camp de la teoria del mostratge i de la metodologia sociològica, ja que mai es fonamenten (ni tampoc ningú ho demana) les operacions tècniques més bàsiques que realitza l’estadístic o el sociòleg.

A Model of ethnic conflict

We present a model of conflict, in which discriminatory government policy or social intolerance is responsive to various forms of ethnic activism, including violence. It is this perceived responsiveness -captured by the probability that the government gives in and accepts a proponed change in ethnic policy- that induces individuals to mobilize in support for their cause. Yet, mobilization is costly and demonstrators have to be compensated accordingly. Individuals have to weigh their ethnic radicalism with their material well-being to determine the size of their money contribution to the cause. Our main results are: (i) a one-sided increase in radicalism or in population size increases conflict; (ii) a one-sided increase in income has ambiguous effects depending on the elasticity of contributions to income; (iii) an increase in within-group inequality increases conflict; and (iv) an increase in the correlation between ethnic radicalism and inequality also increases conflict.

Understanding sources of the change in international business cycles

Macroeconomic activity has become less volatile over the past three decades in most G7 economies. Current literature focuses on the characterization of the volatility reduction and explanations for this so called "moderation" in each G7 economy separately. In opposed to individual country analysis and individual variable analysis, this paper focuses on common characteristics of the reduction and common explanations for the moderation in G7 countries. In particular, we study three explanations: structural changes in the economy, changes in common international shocks and changes in domestic shocks. We study these explanations in a unified model structure. To this end, we propose a Bayesian factor structural vector autoregressive model. Using the proposed model, we investigate whether we can find common explanations for all G7 economies when information is pooled from multiple domestic and international sources. Our empirical analysis suggests that volatility reductions can largely be attributed to the decline in the magnitudes of the shocks in most G7 countries while only for the U.K., the U.S. and Italy they can partially be attributed to structural changes in the economy. Analyzing the components of the volatility, we also find that domestic shocks rather than common international shocks can account for a large part of the volatility reduction in most of the G7 countries. Finally, we find that after mid-1980s the structure of the economy changes substantially in five of the G7 countries: Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S..

Political alliances and organisational change in political parties: a framework for analysis

This article sets out a theoretical framework for the study of organisational change within political alliances. To achieve this objective it uses as a starting point a series of premises, the most notable of which include the definition of organisational change as a discrete, complex and focussed phenomenon of changes in power within the party. In accordance with these premises, it analyses the synthetic model of organisational change proposed by Panebianco (1988). After examining its limitations, a number of amendments are proposed to adapt it to the way political alliances operate. The above has resulted in the design of four new models. In order to test its validity and explanatory power in a preliminary manner, the second part looks at the organisational change of the UDC within the CiU alliance between 1978 and 2001. The discussion and conclusions reached demonstrate the problems of determinism of the Panebianco model and suggest, tentatively, the importance of the power balance within the alliance as a key factor.