Limitations and biases of conventional analysis of climate change. Towards an analysis coherent with sustainable development

This paper shows the numerous problems of conventional economic analysis in the evaluation of climate change mitigation policies. The article points out the many limitations, omissions, and the arbitrariness that have characterized most evaluation models applied up until now. These shortcomings, in an almost overwhelming way, have biased the result towards the recommendation of a lower aggressiveness of emission mitigation policies. Consequently, this paper questions whether these results provide an appropriate answer to the problem. Finally, various points that an analysis coherent with sustainable development should take into account are presented.

Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Metallic and nonmetallic shine in luster: An elastic ion backscattering study

Luster is a metal glass nanocomposite layer first produced in the Middle East in early Islamic times ( 9th AD) made of metal copper or silver nanoparticles embedded in a silica-based glassy matrix. These nanoparticles are produced by ion exchange between Cu+ and Ag+ and alkaline ions from the glassy matrix and further growth in a reducing atmosphere. The most striking property of luster is its capability of reflecting light like a continuous metal layer and it was unexpectedly found to be linked to one single production parameter: the presence of lead in the glassy matrix composition. The purpose of this article is to describe the characteristics and differences of the nanoparticle layers developed on lead rich and lead free glasses. Copper luster layers obtained using the ancient recipes and methods are analyzed by means of elastic ion backscattering spectroscopy associated with other analytical techniques. The depth profile of the different elements is determined, showing that the luster layer formed in lead rich glasses is 5–6 times thinner and 3–4 times Cu richer. Therefore, the metal nanoparticles are more densely packed in the layer and this fact is related to its higher reflectivity. It is shown that lead influences the structure of the metal nanoparticle layer through the change of the precipitation kinetics

Coherent Stranski-Krastanov growth in 1+1 dimensions with anharmonic interactions: An equilibrium study

The formation of coherently strained three-dimensional (3D) islands on top of the wetting layer in the Stranski-Krastanov mode of growth is considered in a model in 1 + 1 dimensions accounting for the anharmonicity and nonconvexity of the real interatomic forces. It is shown that coherent 3D islands can be expected to form in compressed rather than expanded overlayers beyond a critical lattice misfit. In expanded overlayers the classical Stranski-Krastanov growth is expected to occur because the misfit dislocations can become energetically favored at smaller island sizes. The thermodynamic reason for coherent 3D islanding is incomplete wetting owing to the weaker adhesion of the edge atoms. Monolayer height islands with a critical size appear as necessary precursors of the 3D islands. This explains the experimentally observed narrow size distribution of the 3D islands. The 2D-3D transformation takes place by consecutive rearrangements of mono- to bilayer, bi- to trilayer islands, etc., after the corresponding critical sizes have been exceeded. The rearrangements are initiated by nucleation events, each one needing to overcome a lower energetic barrier than the one before. The model is in good qualitative agreement with available experimental observations.

Coherent stochastic resonance

We consider Brownian motion on a line terminated by two trapping points. A bias term in the form of a telegraph signal is applied to this system. It is shown that the first two moments of survival time exhibit a minimum at the same resonant frequency.

Coherent tunnelling in Cu2+- and Ag2+-doped MgO and CaO: Cu2+ explored through ab initio calculations

The observation of coherent tunnelling in Cu2+ - and Ag2+ -doped MgO and CaO:Cu2+ was a crucial discovery in the realm of the Jahn-Teller (JT) effect. The main reasons favoring this dynamic behavior are now clarified through ab initio calculations on Cu2+ - and Ag2+ -doped cubic oxides. Small JT distortions and an unexpected low anharmonicity of the eg JT mode are behind energy barriers smaller than 25 cm-1 derived through CASPT2 calculations for Cu2+ - and Ag2+ -doped MgO and CaO:Cu2+ . The low anharmonicity is shown to come from a strong vibrational coupling of MO610- units (M=Cu,Ag) to the host lattice. The average distance between the d9 impurity and ligands is found to vary significantly on passing from MgO to SrO following to a good extent the lattice parameter.

Coherent patterns and self-induced diffraction of electrons on a thin nonlinear layer

Electron scattering on a thin layer where the potential depends self-consistently on the wave function has been studied. When the amplitude of the incident wave exceeds a certain threshold, a soliton-shaped brightening (darkening) appears on the layer causing diffraction of the wave. Thus the spontaneously formed transverse pattern can be viewed as a self-induced nonlinear quantum screen. Attractive or repulsive nonlinearities result in different phase shifts of the wave function on the screen, which give rise to quite different diffraction patterns. Among others, the nonlinearity can cause self-focusing of the incident wave into a beam, splitting in two "beams," single or double traces with suppressed reflection or transmission, etc.

Aproximació al disseny de procediments i instruments per a la personalització de l'ensenyament a l'etapa primària des d'una perspectiva inclusiva

The main objective of this research is to found a new process about the personalization's curriculum for pupils with especial educational needs. In this research there are two objectives: the first objective is to describe a procedure for to do the individual planning for this pupils. This procedure is called "Procediment per cartes de personalització" (Pedragosa 2002). The other objective is centered to validate this procedure for teachers who are in active service in primary's etapa and to check if it's a good process for to do the individual planning in an inclusive approach. The procedure's cobcretion is about three basic referents: In the first, we consult with the current regulations, in the second we incorporate the inclusion's approach and the fundamentals of universal learning design, and finally we consult Ruiz's (1999) provides. We obtain the information for the research until, during and after of the formation's course (in 2003/2004). We introduced two questionnaire (until and after of formation sessions) and we register all of the sessions with a parlimentary report. About the main research results we can to affirm that the procedure is a good option for the professional's practice. It's an organized, ordered and coherent design with our curriculum. But, in spite of, we can to probate that there some interesting variables which are to influence to the procedure's efficiency.

EU foreign policy towards Georgia: just for energy?

The paper analyses how the EU foreign policy towards Georgia changed after the Rose Revolution, reaching greater levels of involvement and assistance. It is argued that the pro-western and reformist new government in Georgia triggered a new orientation in the EU foreign policy towards the country based on a logic of appropriateness, that is EU´s values, in addition to energy interests. Comparative analysis in the Southern-Caucasus and other Eastern-European countries shows how reformist and pro-EU governments receive more EU support and assistance. This does not mean that material interest do not play an important role. However, the EU seems to be coherent with its values when regarding the European neighbourhood.

Recomanacions sobre pràctiques higièniques per embotits fermentats tradicionals

La seguretat i qualitat dels aliments és actualment una de les majors preocupacions dels consumidors europeus i una prioritat política en Estats Units i Europa, a través del Programa Agenda 2000 i el Llibre Blanc de seguretat alimentària (2000). Aquest llibre blanc va indicar 3 prioritats: 1. Crear una Agència Europea dels Aliments, 2. Implementar un enfocament coherent de la granja a la taula en termes de legislació alimentària, 3. Establir el principi a partir del qual la responsabilitat clau de la seguretat alimentària recau en els operadors alimentaris. Els estats membres són els encarregats de vigilar i controlar a aquests productors i la Comissió Europea comprova l’eficiència dels Estats per a controlar-los (subsidiari). La legislació comunitària estableix els objectius de les normes d’higiene (en vigor des del 20 de maig del 2004) a través de l’ús d’un enfocament integrat de tota la cadena alimentària (des de la granja a la taula), per a garantir un alt nivell de protecció en termes de seguretat sanitària dels productes alimentosos. A Europa, els productes artesanals i/o tradicionals gaudeixen d’una posició privilegiada als ulls dels consumidors que demanden productes autèntics, de qualitat i d’origen garantit.

Estudi ambiental de la proposta del POUM de Viver i Serrateix

L’objecte d’aquest estudi és fer una anàlisi ambiental de la proposta del Pla d’Ordenació Urbanística Municipal del municipi de Viver i Serrateix, i poder presentar en darrer terme, una alternativa al model estudiat, que pugui oferir uns criteris basats en un model més sostenible i respectuós amb l’entorn, i coherent amb la realitat existent.

La biblioteca personal: integrant la biblioteca en la societat en xarxa

El text presenta el "model danès" d'organització d'un sistema bibliotecari únic i coherent com a mitjà per asegurar l'accés universal, personalitzat i quotidià a la informació en tota mena de suports i també la reinterpretació del paper de les biblioteques i dels bibliotecaris en la societat de la informació. La base del model és una llei-marc, combinada amb l'actuació de la Danish Nacional Library Authority (DNLA), que encoratgen la cooperació en tots els àmbits, el desenvolupament professional i la creació de nous serveis, entre els quals destaquen els que es presenten a través del portal nacional de les biblioteques daneses (bibliotek.dk), incloent-hi el cataleg col·lectiu i d'altres com ara la referència electrònica i els portals temàtics.

Trade, firm selection, and innovation: the competition channel

The availability of rich firm-level data sets has recently led researchers to uncover new evidence on the effects of trade liberalization. First, trade openness forces the least productive firms to exit the market. Secondly, it induces surviving firms to increase their innovation efforts and thirdly, it increases the degree of product market competition. In this paper we propose a model aimed at providing a coherent interpretation of these findings. We introducing firm heterogeneity into an innovation-driven growth model, where incumbent firms operating in oligopolistic industries perform cost-reducing innovations. In this framework, trade liberalization leads to higher product market competition, lower markups and higher quantity produced. These changes in markups and quantities, in turn, promote innovation and productivity growth through a direct competition effect, based on the increase in the size of the market, and a selection effect, produced by the reallocation of resources towards more productive firms. Calibrated to match US aggregate and firm-level statistics, the model predicts that a 10 percent reduction in variable trade costs reduces markups by 1:15 percent, firm surviving probabilities by 1 percent, and induces an increase in productivity growth of about 13 percent. More than 90 percent of the trade-induced growth increase can be attributed to the selection effect.

Integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability: the pros and cons of reductionism

In this paper I review a series of theoretical concepts that are relevant for the integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability but that are not generally included in the curriculum of the various scientific disciplines dealing with quantitative analysis of agriculture. I first illustrate with plain narratives and concrete examples that sustainability is an extremely complex issue requiring the simultaneous consideration of several aspects, which cannot be reduced into a single indicator of performance. Following, I justify this obvious need for multi-criteria analysis with theoretical concepts dealing with the epistemological predicament of complexity, starting from classic philosophical lessons to arrive to recent developments in complex system theory, in particular Rosen´s theory of modelling relation which is essential to analyze the quality of any quantitative representation. The implications of these theoretical concepts are then illustrated with applications of multi-criteria analysis to the sustainability of agriculture. I wrap up by pointing out the crucial difference between "integrated assessment" and "integrated analysis". An integrated analysis is a set of indicators and analytical models generating an analytical output. An integrated assessment is much more than that. It is about finding an effective way to deal with three key issues: (i) legitimacy – how to handle the unavoidable existence of legitimate but contrasting points of view about different meanings given by social actors to the word "development"; (ii) pertinence – how to handle in a coherent way scientific analyses referring to different scales and dimensions; and (iii) credibility – how to handle the unavoidable existence of uncertainty and genuine ignorance, when dealing with the analysis of future scenarios.