Model selection and error estimation

We study model selection strategies based on penalized empirical loss minimization. We point out a tight relationship between error estimation and data-based complexity penalization: any good error estimate may be converted into a data-based penalty function and the performance of the estimate is governed by the quality of the error estimate. We consider several penalty functions, involving error estimates on independent test data, empirical {\sc vc} dimension, empirical {\sc vc} entropy, andmargin-based quantities. We also consider the maximal difference between the error on the first half of the training data and the second half, and the expected maximal discrepancy, a closely related capacity estimate that can be calculated by Monte Carlo integration. Maximal discrepancy penalty functions are appealing for pattern classification problems, since their computation is equivalent to empirical risk minimization over the training data with some labels flipped.

A curious example of two model categories and some associated differential graded algebras

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

The Role of model uncertainty and learning in the U.S. postwar policy response to oil prices

This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a framework that explicitly accounts for policymakers' uncertainty about the channels of transmission of oil prices into the economy. More specfically, I examine the robust response to the real price of oil that US monetary authorities would have been recommended to implement in the period 1970 2009; had they used the approach proposed by Cogley and Sargent (2005b) to incorporate model uncertainty and learning into policy decisions. In this context, I investigate the extent to which regulator' changing beliefs over different models of the economy play a role in the policy selection process. The main conclusion of this work is that, in the specific environment under analysis, one of the underlying models dominates the optimal interest rate response to oil prices. This result persists even when alternative assumptions on the model's priors change the pattern of the relative posterior probabilities, and can thus be attributed to the presence of model uncertainty itself.

Globally aligned photomosaic of the Lucky Strike hydrothermal vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 37°18.5’N): Release of georeferenced data, mosaic construction, and viewing software

We present a georeferenced photomosaic of the Lucky Strike hydrothermal vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 37°18’N). The photomosaic was generated from digital photographs acquired using the ARGO II seafloor imaging system during the 1996 LUSTRE cruise, which surveyed a ~1 km2 zone and provided a coverage of ~20% of the seafloor. The photomosaic has a pixel resolution of 15 mm and encloses the areas with known active hydrothermal venting. The final mosaic is generated after an optimization that includes the automatic detection of the same benthic features across different images (feature-matching), followed by a global alignment of images based on the vehicle navigation. We also provide software to construct mosaics from large sets of images for which georeferencing information exists (location, attitude, and altitude per image), to visualize them, and to extract data. Georeferencing information can be provided by the raw navigation data (collected during the survey) or result from the optimization obtained from imatge matching. Mosaics based solely on navigation can be readily generated by any user but the optimization and global alignment of the mosaic requires a case-by-case approach for which no universally software is available. The Lucky Strike photomosaics (optimized and navigated-only) are publicly available through the Marine Geoscience Data System (MGDS, http://www.marine-geo.org). The mosaic-generating and viewing software is available through the Computer Vision and Robotics Group Web page at the University of Girona (http://eia.udg.es/_rafa/mosaicviewer.html)

Predicting the potential for lightning activity in mediterranean storms based on the WRF model dynamic and microphysical fields

A new parameter is introduced: the lightning potential index (LPI), which is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. The LPI is calculated within the charge separation region of clouds between 0 C and 20 C, where the noninductive mechanism involving collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water is most effective. As shown in several case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with explicit microphysics, the LPI is highly correlated with observed lightning. It is suggested that the LPI may be a useful parameter for predicting lightning as well as a tool for improving weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall.

Evidence for oxygen-island formation on Al(111): Cluster-model theory and x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy

The O 1s x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy spectrum for Al(111)/O at 300 K shows two components whose behavior as a function of time and variation of detection angle are consistent with either (a) a surface species represented by the higher binding-energy (BE) component and a subsurface species represented by the lower BE component, or (b) small close-packed oxygen islands with the interior atoms represented by the lower BE component and the perimeter atoms by the higher BE component. We have modeled both situations using ab initio Hartree-Fock wave functions for clusters of Al and O atoms. For an O atom in a threefold site, it was found that a below-surface position gave a higher O 1s BE than an above-surface position, incompatible with interpretation (a). This change in the O 1s BE could arise because the bond for O to Al may have a more covalent character when the O is below the surface than when it is above the surface. We present evidence consistent with this view. An O adatom island with all the O atoms in threefold sites gives calculated O 1s BE's which are significantly higher for the perimeter O atoms. Further, the results for an isolated O island without the Al substrate present also give higher BE¿s for the perimeter atoms. Both these results are consistent with interpretation (b). Published scanning-tunneling-microscopy data supports the suggestion that the chemisorbed state consists of small, close-packed islands, whereas the presence of two vibrational modes in high-resolution electron-energy-loss spectroscopy data has been interpreted as representing surface and subsurface oxygen atoms. In light of the present results, we suggest that a vibrational interpretation in terms of interior and perimeter adatoms should be considered.

Concentrations of resveratrol and derivatives in foods and estimation of dietary intake in a Spanish population: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort

Resveratrol has been shown to have beneficial effects on diseases related to oxidant and/or inflammatory processes and extends the lifespan of simple organisms including rodents. The objective of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of resveratrol and piceid (R&P) present in foods, and to identify the principal dietary sources of these compounds in the Spanish adult population. For this purpose, a food composition database (FCDB) of R&P in Spanish foods was compiled. The study included 40 685 subjects aged 3564 years from northern and southern regions of Spain who were included in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort. Usual food intake was assessed by personal interviews using a computerised version of a validated diet history method. An FCDB with 160 items was compiled. The estimated median and mean of R&P intake were 100 and 933 mg/d respectively. Approximately, 32% of the population did not consume RΠ The most abundant of the four stilbenes studied was trans-piceid (53·6 %), followed by trans-resveratrol (20·9 %), cis-piceid (19·3 %) and cis-resveratrol (6·2 %). The most important source of R&P was wines (98·4 %) and grape and grape juices (1·6 %), whereas peanuts, pistachios and berries contributed to less than 0·01 %. For this reason the pattern of intake of R&P was similar to the wine pattern. This is the first time that R&P intake has been estimated in a Mediterranean country.

Construction and performance of network codes

El principal objectiu d'aquest treball és implementar i exposar una descripció teòrica per a diferents esquemes de Physical Layer Network Coding. Utilitzant un esquema bàsic com a punt de partida, el projecte presenta la construcció i l'anàlisis de diferents esquemes de comunicació on la complexitat va augmentant a mesura que anem avançant en el projecte. El treball està estructurat en diferents parts: primer, es presenta una introducció a Physical Layer Network Coding i a Lattice Network Codes. A continuació, s'introdueixen les eines matemàtiques necessàries per entendre el CF System. Després, s'analitza i implementa el primer esquema bàsic. A partir del qual, implementem una versió vectorial del CF System i una versió codificada amb un Hamming q-ari. Finalment, s'estudien i implementen diferents estratègies per millorar la matriu de coeficients A.

Concentrations of resveratrol and derivatives in foods and estimation of dietary intake in a Spanish population: European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort

Resveratrol has been shown to have beneficial effects on diseases related to oxidant and/or inflammatory processes and extends the lifespan of simple organisms including rodents. The objective of the present study was to estimate the dietary intake of resveratrol and piceid (R&P) present in foods, and to identify the principal dietary sources of these compounds in the Spanish adult population. For this purpose, a food composition database (FCDB) of R&P in Spanish foods was compiled. The study included 40 685 subjects aged 35-64 years from northern and southern regions of Spain who were included in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Spain cohort. Usual food intake was assessed by personal interviews using a computerised version of a validated diet history method. An FCDB with 160 items was compiled. The estimated median and mean of R&P intake were 100 and 933 mg/d respectively. Approximately, 32% of the population did not consume RΠ The most abundant of the four stilbenes studied was trans-piceid (53·6 %), followed by trans-resveratrol (20·9 %), cis-piceid (19·3 %) and cis-resveratrol (6·2 %). The most important source of R&P was wines (98·4 %) and grape and grape juices (1·6 %), whereas peanuts, pistachios and berries contributed to less than 0·01 %. For this reason the pattern of intake of R&P was similar to the wine pattern. This is the first time that R&P intake has been estimated in a Mediterranean country.

Disentangling the formation of contrasting tree line physiognomies combining model selection and Bayesian parameterization for simulation models.

Alpine tree-line ecotones are characterized by marked changes at small spatial scales that may result in a variety of physiognomies. A set of alternative individual-based models was tested with data from four contrasting Pinus uncinata ecotones in the central Spanish Pyrenees to reveal the minimal subset of processes required for tree-line formation. A Bayesian approach combined with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods was employed to obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters, allowing the use of model selection procedures. The main features of real tree lines emerged only in models considering nonlinear responses in individual rates of growth or mortality with respect to the altitudinal gradient. Variation in tree-line physiognomy reflected mainly changes in the relative importance of these nonlinear responses, while other processes, such as dispersal limitation and facilitation, played a secondary role. Different nonlinear responses also determined the presence or absence of krummholz, in agreement with recent findings highlighting a different response of diffuse and abrupt or krummholz tree lines to climate change. The method presented here can be widely applied in individual-based simulation models and will turn model selection and evaluation in this type of models into a more transparent, effective, and efficient exercise.

Construction and validation of a scoring system for the selection of high-quality data in a Spanish population primary care database (SIDIAP)

Background Computerised databases of primary care clinical records are widely used for epidemiological research. In Catalonia, the InformationSystem for the Development of Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP) aims to promote the development of research based on high-quality validated data from primary care electronic medical records. Objective The purpose of this study is to create and validate a scoring system (Registry Quality Score, RQS) that will enable all primary care practices (PCPs) to be selected as providers of researchusable data based on the completeness of their registers. Methods Diseases that were likely to be representative of common diagnoses seen in primary care were selected for RQS calculations. The observed/ expected cases ratio was calculated for each disease. Once we had obtained an estimated value for this ratio for each of the selected conditions we added up the ratios calculated for each condition to obtain a final RQS. Rate comparisons between observed and published prevalences of diseases not included in the RQS calculations (atrial fibrillation, diabetes, obesity, schizophrenia, stroke, urinary incontinenceand Crohn’s disease) were used to set the RQS cutoff which will enable researchers to select PCPs with research-usable data. Results Apart from Crohn’s disease, all prevalences were the same as those published from the RQS fourth quintile (60th percentile) onwards. This RQS cut-off provided a total population of 1 936 443 (39.6% of the total SIDIAP population). Conclusions SIDIAP is highly representative of the population of Catalonia in terms of geographical, age and sex distributions. We report the usefulness of rate comparison as a valid method to establish research-usable data within primary care electronic medical records

How to use the standard model with own data?

In this work discuss the use of the standard model for the calculation of the solvency capital requirement (SCR) when the company aims to use the specific parameters of the model on the basis of the experience of its portfolio. In particular, this analysis focuses on the formula presented in the latest quantitative impact study (2010 CEIOPS) for non-life underwriting premium and reserve risk. One of the keys of the standard model for premium and reserves risk is the correlation matrix between lines of business. In this work we present how the correlation matrix between lines of business could be estimated from a quantitative perspective, as well as the possibility of using a credibility model for the estimation of the matrix of correlation between lines of business that merge qualitative and quantitative perspective.

Intelligent PCA contribution analysis for quality estimation in batch processes. Application in a sequencing batch reactor for wastewater treatment

En aquest treball, es proposa un nou mètode per estimar en temps real la qualitat del producte final en processos per lot. Aquest mètode permet reduir el temps necessari per obtenir els resultats de qualitat de les anàlisi de laboratori. S'utiliza un model de anàlisi de componentes principals (PCA) construït amb dades històriques en condicions normals de funcionament per discernir si un lot finalizat és normal o no. Es calcula una signatura de falla pels lots anormals i es passa a través d'un model de classificació per la seva estimació. L'estudi proposa un mètode per utilitzar la informació de les gràfiques de contribució basat en les signatures de falla, on els indicadors representen el comportament de les variables al llarg del procés en les diferentes etapes. Un conjunt de dades compost per la signatura de falla dels lots anormals històrics es construeix per cercar els patrons i entrenar els models de classifcació per estimar els resultas dels lots futurs. La metodologia proposada s'ha aplicat a un reactor seqüencial per lots (SBR). Diversos algoritmes de classificació es proven per demostrar les possibilitats de la metodologia proposada.