The black-white test score gap widens with age?

We re-examine the theoretical concept of a production function for cognitive achievement, and argue that an indirect production function that depends upon the variables that constrain parents' choices is both moretractable from an econometric point of view, and more interesting from an economic point of view than is a direct production function that depends upon a detailed list of direct inputs such as number of books in the household. We estimate flexible econometric models of indirect production functions for two achievement measures from the Woodcock-Johnson Revised battery, using data from two waves of the Child Development Supplement to the PSID. Elasticities of achievement measures with respect to family income and parents' educational levels are positive and significant. Gaps between scores of black and white children narrow or remain constant as children grow older, a result that differs from previous findings in the literature. The elasticities of achievement scores with respect to family income are substantially higher for children of black families, and there are some notable difference in elasticities with respect to parents' educational levels across blacks and whites.

The Black Box of Business Dynamics

Research in business dynamics has been advancing rapidly in the last years but the translation of the new knowledge to industrial policy design is slow. One striking aspect in the policy area is that although research and analysis do not identify the existence of an specific optimal rate of business creation and business exit, governments everywhere have adopted business start-up support programs with the implicit principle that the more the better. The purpose of this article is to contribute to understand the implications of the available research for policy design. Economic analysis has identified firm heterogeneity as being the most salient characteristic of industrial dynamics, and so a better knowledge of the different types of entrepreneur, their behavior and their specific contribution to innovation and growth would enable us to see into the ‘black box’ of business dynamics and improve the design of appropriate public policies. The empirical analysis performed here shows that not all new business have the same impact on relevant economic variables, and that self-employment is of quite a different economic nature to that of firms with employees. It is argued that public programs should not promote indiscriminate entry but rather give priority to able entrants with survival capacities. Survival of entrants is positively related to their size at birth. Innovation and investment improve the likelihood of survival of new manufacturing start-ups. Investment in R&D increases the risk of failure in new firms, although it improves the competitiveness of incumbents.

Re-opening the black box in societal metabolism: the application of MuSIASEM to water

In this paper we address the complexity of the analysis of water use in relation to the issue of sustainability. In fact, the flows of water in our planet represent a complex reality which can be studied using many different perceptions and narratives referring to different scales and dimensions of analysis. For this reason, a quantitative analysis of water use has to be based on analytical methods that are semantically open: they must be able to define what we mean with the term “water” when crossing different scales of analysis. We propose here a definition of water as a resource that deal with the many services it provides to humans and ecosystems. WE argue that water can fulfil so many of them since the element has many characteristics that allow for the resource to be labelled with different attributes, depending on the end use –such as drinkable. Since the services for humans and the functions for ecosystems associated with water flows are defined on different scales but still interconnected it is necessary to organize our assessment of water use across different hierarchical levels. In order to do so we define how to approach the study of water use in the Societal Metabolism, by proposing the Water Metabolism, tganized in three levels: societal level, ecosystem level and global level. The possible end uses we distinguish for the society are: personal/physiological use, household use, economic use. Organizing the study of “water use” across all these levels increases the usefulness of the quantitative analysis and the possibilities of finding relevant and comparable results. To achieve this result, we adapted a method developed to deal with multi-level, multi-scale analysis - the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach - to the analysis of water metabolism. In this paper, we discuss the peculiar analytical identity that “water” shows within multi-scale metabolic studies: water represents a flow-element when considering the metabolism of social systems (at a small scale, when describing the water metabolism inside the society) and a fund-element when considering the metabolism o ecosystems (at a larger scale when describing the water metabolism outside the society). The theoretical analysis is illustrated using two case which characterize the metabolic patterns regarding water use of a productive system in Catalonia and a water management policy in Andarax River Basin in Andalusia.

An Analysis of black-box optimization problems in reinsurance: evolutionary-based approaches

Black-box optimization problems (BBOP) are de ned as those optimization problems in which the objective function does not have an algebraic expression, but it is the output of a system (usually a computer program). This paper is focussed on BBOPs that arise in the eld of insurance, and more speci cally in reinsurance problems. In this area, the complexity of the models and assumptions considered to de ne the reinsurance rules and conditions produces hard black-box optimization problems, that must be solved in order to obtain the optimal output of the reinsurance. The application of traditional optimization approaches is not possible in BBOP, so new computational paradigms must be applied to solve these problems. In this paper we show the performance of two evolutionary-based techniques (Evolutionary Programming and Particle Swarm Optimization). We provide an analysis in three BBOP in reinsurance, where the evolutionary-based approaches exhibit an excellent behaviour, nding the optimal solution within a fraction of the computational cost used by inspection or enumeration methods.

Derivats financers al mercat espanyol: el Model de Black-Scholes i corbes de volatilitat per opcions sobre l'índex niniIBEX-35

El nostre treball es centrarà en conèixer i aprendre les nocions bàsiques del mercat financer espanyol, primer; i aplicar uns coneixements per veure si es verifica unahipòtesi plantejada, després. La incògnita que volem resoldre és la següent: comprovarsi tots els supòsits i resultats que faciliten els models teòrics emprats en l’estudi dels mercats financers a l’hora de la veritat es compleixen.D’entre els múltiples conceptes que ens proporcionen els estudis de mercatsfinancers ens centrarem sobretot en el model de Black-Scholes i els somriures devolatilitat per desenvolupar el nostre treball. Després de cercar les dades necessàries a través de la web del M.E.F.F., entrevistar-nos amb professionals del sector i fer un seguiment d’aproximadament dos mesos dels moviments de les opcions sobre l’Índex Mini-Íbex 35, amb l’ajuda d’un programa informàtic en llenguatge C, hem calculat les corbes de volatilitat de les opcions sobre l’Índex Mini-Íbex 35.Les conclusions més importants que hem extret són que el Model de Black-Scholes, malgrat va revolucionar el món dels mercats financers, està basat en 2 supòsits que no es compleixen a la realitat: la distribució lognormal del preu de les accions i unavolatilitat constant. Tal i com hem pogut comprovar, la corba de volatilitat de lesopcions sobre l’Índex Mini-Íbex 35 és decreixent amb el preu d’exercici i laMoneyness, tal i com sostenen les teories dels somriures de volatilitat; per tant, no és constant. A més, hem comprovat que a mesura que s’apropa el venciment d’una opció,el preu acordat de l’actiu subjacent a l’opció s’apropa al preu de mercat.

Local volatility changes in the black-scholes model

In this paper we address a problem arising in risk management; namely the study of price variations of different contingent claims in the Black-Scholes model due to anticipating future events. The method we propose to use is an extension of the classical Vega index, i.e. the price derivative with respect to the constant volatility, in thesense that we perturb the volatility in different directions. Thisdirectional derivative, which we denote the local Vega index, will serve as the main object in the paper and one of the purposes is to relate it to the classical Vega index. We show that for all contingent claims studied in this paper the local Vega index can be expressed as a weighted average of the perturbation in volatility. In the particular case where the interest rate and the volatility are constant and the perturbation is deterministic, the local Vega index is an average of this perturbation multiplied by the classical Vega index. We also study the well-known goal problem of maximizing the probability of a perfect hedge and show that the speed of convergence is in fact dependent of the local Vega index.

Option valuation as an expectation in the complex domain: The Black-Scholes case

It is very well known that the first succesful valuation of a stock option was done by solving a deterministic partial differential equation (PDE) of the parabolic type with some complementary conditions specific for the option. In this approach, the randomness in the option value process is eliminated through a no-arbitrage argument. An alternative approach is to construct a replicating portfolio for the option. From this viewpoint the payoff function for the option is a random process which, under a new probabilistic measure, turns out to be of a special type, a martingale. Accordingly, the value of the replicating portfolio (equivalently, of the option) is calculated as an expectation, with respect to this new measure, of the discounted value of the payoff function. Since the expectation is, by definition, an integral, its calculation can be made simpler by resorting to powerful methods already available in the theory of analytic functions. In this paper we use precisely two of those techniques to find the well-known value of a European call

Nonequilibrium thermodynamic fluctuations of black holes

With the aid of the Landau-Lifshitz theory for thermodynamic fluctuations we estimate and comment on the fluctuations in the rates of mass, angular momentum, and other relevant quantities of massive Schwarzschild and Kerr black holes.

Black holes from nucleating strings

We evaluate the probability that a loop of string that has spontaneously nucleated during inflation will form a black hole upon collapse, after the end of inflation. We then use the observational bounds on the density of primordial black holes to put constraints on the parameters of the model. Combining these constraints with current upper limits on the expansion rate during inflation, we conclude that the density of black holes formed from nucleating strings is too low to be observed. Also, constraints on domain wall nucleation and monopole pair production during inflation are briefly discussed.

Brane-world creation and black holes

An inflating brane world can be created from ``nothing'' together with its anti-de Sitter (AdS) bulk. The resulting space-time has compact spatial sections bounded by the brane. During inflation, the continuum of KK modes is separated from the massless zero mode by the gap m=(3/2)H, where H is the Hubble rate. We consider the analogue of the Nariai solution and argue that it describes the pair production of ``black cigars'' attached to the inflating brane. In the case when the size of the instantons is much larger than the AdS radius, the 5-dimensional action agrees with the 4-dimensional one. Hence, the 5D and 4D gravitational entropies are the same in this limit. We also consider thermal instantons with an AdS black hole in the bulk. These may be interpreted as describing the creation of a hot universe from nothing or the production of AdS black holes in the vicinity of a pre-existing inflating brane world. The Lorentzian evolution of the brane world after creation is briefly discussed. An additional ``integration constant'' in the Friedmann equation-accompanying a term which dilutes like radiation-describes the tidal force in the fifth direction and arises from the mass of a spherical object inside the bulk. In general, this could be a 5-dimensional black hole or a ``parallel'' brane world of negative tension concentrical with our brane-world. In the case of thermal solutions, and in the spirit of the AdS/CFT correspondence, one may attribute the additional term to thermal radiation in the boundary theory. Then, for temperatures well below the AdS scale, the entropy of this radiation agrees with the entropy of the black hole in the AdS bulk.

Quantum black hole entropy and newton constant renormalization

ty that low-energy effective field theory could be sufficient to understand the microscopic degrees of freedom underlying black hole entropy. We propose a qualitative physical picture in which black hole entropy refers to a space of quasicoherent states of infalling matter, together with its gravitational field. We stress that this scenario might provide a low-energy explanation of both the black hole entropy and the information puzzle.

Correlations between black holes formed in cosmic string breaking

An analysis of cosmic string breaking with the formation of black holes attached to the ends reveals a remarkable feature: the black holes can be correlated or uncorrelated. We find that, as a consequence, the number-of-states enhancement factor in the action governing the formation of uncorrelated black holes is twice the one for a correlated pair. We argue that when an uncorrelated pair forms at the ends of the string, the physics involved is more analogous to thermal nucleation than to particle-antiparticle creation. Also, we analyze the process of intercommuting strings induced by black hole annihilation and merging. Finally, we discuss the consequences for grand unified strings. The process whereby uncorrelated black holes are formed yields a rate which significantly improves over those previously considered, but still not enough to modify string cosmology. 1995 The American Physical Society.

Black holes as fundamental strings: Comparing the absorption of scalars

The recently proposed correspondence principle of Horowitz and Polchinski provides a concrete means to relate (among others) black holes with electric Neveu-SchwarzNeveu-Schwarz charges to fundamental strings and correctly match their entropies. We further test this correspondence by examining the greybody factors in the absorption rates of neutral, minimally coupled scalars by a near extremal black hole. Perhaps surprisingly, the results disagree in general with the absorption by weakly coupled strings. Though this does not disprove the correspondence, it indicates that it might not be simple in this region of the black hole parameter space.

Can extreme black Holes have (long) Abelian Higgs hair?

It has been argued that a black hole horizon can support the long-range fields of a Nielsen-Olesen string and that one can think of such a vortex as black hole "hair." In this paper, we examine the properties of an Abelian Higgs vortex in the presence of a charged black hole as we allow the hole to approach extremality. Using both analytical and numerical techniques, we show that the magnetic field lines (as well as the scalar field) of the vortex are completely expelled from the black hole in the extreme limit. This was to be expected, since extreme black holes in Einstein-Maxwell theory are known to exhibit such a "Meissner effect" in general. This would seem to imply that a vortex does not want to be attached to an extreme black hole. We calculate the total energy of the vortex fields in the presence of an extreme black hole. When the hole is small relative to the size of the vortex, it is energetically favored for the hole to remain inside the vortex region, contrary to the intuition that the hole should be expelled. However, as we allow the extreme horizon radius to become very large compared to the radius of the vortex, we do find evidence of an instability. This proves that it is energetically unfavorable for a thin vortex to interact with a large extreme black hole. This would seem to dispel the notion that a black hole can support "long" Abelian Higgs hair in the extreme limit. We show that these considerations do not go through in the near-extreme limit. Finally, we discuss the implications for strings that end at black holes, as in the processes where a string snaps by nucleating black holes.

Superconducting p-branes and extremal black holes

In Einstein-Maxwell theory, magnetic flux lines are "expelled" from a black hole as extremality is approached, in the sense that the component of the field strength normal to the horizon goes to zero. Thus, extremal black holes are found to exhibit the sort of ¿Meissner effect¿ which is characteristic of superconducting media. We review some of the evidence for this effect and present new evidence for it using recently found black hole solutions in string theory and Kaluza-Klein theory. We also present some new solutions, which arise naturally in string theory, which are non-superconducting extremal black holes. We present a nice geometrical interpretation of these effects derived by looking carefully at the higher dimensional configurations from which the lower dimensional black hole solutions are obtained. We show that other extremal solitonic objects in string theory (such as p-branes) can also display superconducting properties. In particular, we argue that the relativistic London equation will hold on the world volume of ¿light¿ superconducting p-branes (which are embedded in flat space), and that minimally coupled zero modes will propagate in the adS factor of the near-horizon geometries of "heavy," or gravitating, superconducting p-branes.