Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed modelsfor short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay.The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes theforecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and themixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component.The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of dataversus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interestbecause they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet.Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.

Sedimen-water nutrient fluxes: Preliminary results of in situ measurements in Alfaques Bay, Ebro River Delta.

Sediment-water exchanges of oxygen, ammonium, nitrate, total dissolved nitrogen, phosphate and total dissolved phosphorus were measured by means of an in situ incubator of 7 1 volume and 700 cm2 base area. The incubations lasted for three hours and were done over a whole season on different kinds of sediments in Alfaques Bay. We present some preliminary results on: i) methodological aspects, ii) spatial and temporal variability of fluxes, and iii) estimates of contribution of benthic nutrient regeneration relative to total nutrient loading of the Bay. Oxygen uptake averaged 1700 mmo1 m-2 h-1 (range 200-3500); no differences were found between sandy and muddy sediments. The release of ammonia from the sediment averaged 70 mmo1 m-2 h-1 and was higher in muddy sediments than in sandy ones. Very low to null nitrate and nitrite fluxes and only small fluxes of organic nitrogen were detected. We conclude that ammonium release from sediment is the major path of nitrogen regeneration. Some sediments removed dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) from the water and released dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP). Additional manipulative experiments revealed DRP release under particular conditions (turbulence, anoxia). From these data, we estimate that at least 50% of the nitrogen requirements of phytoplankton in the area may be supplied by benthic remineralization.

Phytobenthic assemblages of Addaia Bay (Menorca, Western Mediterranean): composition and distribution

Study on the composition and distribution of Phytobenthic Assemblages of Addaia Bay (Menorca, Western Mediterranean)