A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

The Öresund region: A dynamic region in Europe due to inter-regional collaboration?

El cluster Medicon Valley es troba a la regió d'Oresund binacional que s'estén per Dinamarca i Suècia, inclosa la Universitat de Lund, ciutat i tercera ciutat més gran de Suècia, Malmö (veure figura 1). El 2000, aquestes dues parts nacionals estaven connectades físicament per l'establiment dels 18 quilòmetres de longitud, enllaç fix del Øresund (ponts i túnels).

Treatment of nonlinear optical properties due to large amplitude anharmonic vibrational motions: umbrella motion in NH3

A general reduced dimensionality finite field nuclear relaxation method for calculating vibrational nonlinear optical properties of molecules with large contributions due to anharmonic motions is introduced. In an initial application to the umbrella (inversion) motion of NH3 it is found that difficulties associated with a conventional single well treatment are overcome and that the particular definition of the inversion coordinate is not important. Future applications are described

Charge transfer in DNA: hole charge is confined to a single base pair due to solvation effects

We include solvation effects in tight-binding Hamiltonians for hole states in DNA. The corresponding linear-response parameters are derived from accurate estimates of solvation energy calculated for several hole charge distributions in DNA stacks. Two models are considered: (A) the correction to a diagonal Hamiltonian matrix element depends only on the charge localized on the corresponding site and (B) in addition to this term, the reaction field due to adjacent base pairs is accounted for. We show that both schemes give very similar results. The effects of the polar medium on the hole distribution in DNA are studied. We conclude that the effects of polar surroundings essentially suppress charge delocalization in DNA, and hole states in (GC)n sequences are localized on individual guanines

Childhood adversity and psychosis: examinig whether the association is due to genetic confounding using a monozygotic twin differences approach

Purpose: To test whether the association between childhood adversity and positive and negative psychotic experiences is due to genetic confounding. Method: Childhood adversity and psychotic experiences were assessed in a sample of 226 twins from the general population. A monozygotic (MZ) twin differences approach was used to assess possible genetic confounding. Results: In the whole sample, childhood adversity was significantly associated with positive (β =.45; SE=.16; p=.008) and negative psychotic experiences (β=.77; SE=.18; p<.01). Within-pair MZ twin differences in exposure to childhood adversity were significantly associated with differences in positive (β =.71; SE=.29; p=.016) and negative psychotic experiences (β =.98; SE=.38; p=.014) in a subsample of 86 MZ twin pairs. Conclusions: Individuals exposed to childhood adversity are more likely to report psychotic experiences. Furthermore, our findings indicate that unique environmental effects of childhood adversity contribute to the development of psychotic experiences.

A new estimator to minimize the error due to breathing in the measurement of respiratory impedance

This paper presents a new respiratory impedance estimator to minimize the error due to breathing. Its practical reliability was evaluated in a simulation using realistic signals. These signals were generated by superposing pressure and flow records obtained in two conditions: 1) when applying forced oscillation to a resistance- inertance- elastance (RIE) mechanical model; 2) when healthy subjects breathed through the unexcited forced oscillation generator. Impedances computed (4-32 Hz) from the simulated signals with the new estimator resulted in a mean value which was scarcely biased by the added breathing (errors less than 1 percent in the mean R, I , and E ) and had a small variability (coefficients of variation of R, I, and E of 1.3, 3.5, and 9.6 percent, respectively). Our results suggest that the proposed estimator reduces the error in measurement of respiratory impedance without appreciable extracomputational cost.

Analysis of the near-intrinsic and extrinsic photocapacitance due to the EL2 level in boron implanted GaAs

A detailed analysis of the photocapacitance signal at the near‐band and extrinsic energetic ranges in Schottky barriers obtained on horizontal Bridgman GaAs wafers, which were implanted with boron at different doses and annealed at several temperatures, has been carried out by using the optical isothermal transient spectroscopy, OITS. The optical cross sections have been determined as well as the quenching efficiency of the EL2 level which has been found to be independent of the annealing temperature. Moreover, the quenching relaxation presents two significant features: (i) a strong increase of the quenching efficiency from 1.35 eV on and (ii) a diminution of the quenching transient amplitude in relation with that shown by the fundamental EL2 level. In order to explain this behavior, different cases are discussed assuming the presence of several energy levels, the existence of an optical recuperation, or the association of the EL2 trap with two levels located, respectively, at Ev+0.45 eV and Ec−0.75 eV. The theoretical simulation, taking into account these two last cases, is in agreement with the experimental photocapacitance data at low temperature, as well as at room temperature where the EL2 filling phototransient shows an anomalous behavior. Moreover, unlike the previous data reported for the EL2 electron optical cross section, the values found using our experimental technique are in agreement with the behavior deduced from the theoretical calculation. The utilization of the OITS method has also allowed the determination of another level, whose faster optical contribution is often added to that of the EL2 level when the DLOS or standard photocapacitance is used.

Distribution of single-particle strength due to short-range and tensor correlations

The distribution of single-particle strength in nuclear matter is calculated for a realistic nucleon-nucleon interaction. The influence of the short-range repulsion and the tensor component of the nuclear force on the spectral functions is to move approximately 13% of the total strength for all single-particle states beyond 100 MeV into the particle domain. This result is related to the abundantly observed quenching phenomena in nuclei which include the reduction of spectroscopic factors observed in (e,ep) reactions and the missing strength in low energy response functions.

Quadratic tranverse anisotropy term due to dislocations in Mn12 acetate crystals directly observed by EPR spectroscopy

High-sensitivity electron paramagnetic resonance experiments have been carried out in fresh and stressed Mn12 acetate single crystals for frequencies ranging from 40 GHz up to 110 GHz. The high number of crystal dislocations formed in the stressing process introduces a E(Sx2-Sy2) transverse anisotropy term in the spin Hamiltonian. From the behavior of the resonant absorptions on the applied transverse magnetic field we have obtained an average value for E=22 mK, corresponding to a concentration of dislocations per unit cell of c=10-3.

Particle creation due to cosmological contraction of extra dimensions

Particle production in a cosmological spacetime with extra dimensions is discussed. A five-dimensional cosmological model with a three-dimensional space expanding isotropically like in a radiative Friedmann-Robertson-Walker model and an internal space contracting to a constant small size is considered. The parameters of the model are adjusted so that time variations in internal space are compatible with present limits on time variations of the fundamental constants. By requiring that the energy density of the particles produced be less than the critical density at the radiation era we set restrictions on two more parameters: namely, the initial time of application of the semiclassical approach and the relative sizes between the internal space and the horizon of the ordinary Universe at this time. Whereas the production of massless particles allows a large range of variation to these parameters, the production of massive particles sets severe constraints on them, since, if they are overproduced, their energy density might very soon dominate the Universe and make cosmological dimensional reduction by extradimensional contraction unlikely.

Spreading due to heterogeneity in two-phase flow

Postprint (published version)

Error probability in synchronous digital circuits due to power supply noise

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to model the problem of power supply voltage fluctuations. Error probability calculations are shown for some 90-nm technology digital circuits.The analysis here considered gives the timing violation error probability as a new design quality factor in front of conventional techniques that assume the full perfection of the circuit. The evaluation of the error bound can be useful for new design paradigms where retry and self-recoveringtechniques are being applied to the design of high performance processors. The method here described allows to evaluate the performance of these techniques by means of calculating the expected error probability in terms of power supply distribution quality.