Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Insomnia in hospitalised patients with advanced disease: prevalence and related factors

Objectiu: Avaluar prevalença i factors associats a l’insomni en pacients ingressats a una unitat de cures pal•liatives. Mètode: Entrevista estructurada a pacients consecutivament ingressats avaluant l’insomni a través de l’escala Sleep Disturbance Scale, i els factors físics, psicològics i ambientals potencialment associats. Resultats principals: El 47% presentà insomni moderat a sever. Els factors potencialment associats més prevalents foren dolor, distrés psicològic, rumiacions nocturnes i factors ambientals. En l’anàlisi multivariada, rumiacions nocturnes i somnolència diürna (relació inversa) es relacionaren amb insomni moderat a sever. Conclusions: L’insomni és un símptoma prevalent relacionat amb rumiacions nocturnes i absència de somnolència diürna.

ALK rearrangement in a selected population of advanced non small cell lung cancer patients. FISH and inmunohistochemistry diagnostic methods, prevalence and clinical outcomes

Anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) rearrangements represents a new driver oncogenic event in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). ALK positive patients account for a 1-7% of NSCLC patients. The objective of this study is to know the prevalence and clinical characteristics of ALK positive patients in a cohort of NSCLC patients and to compare inmunohistochemistry with D5F3 monoclonal antibody with gold standard method fluorescence in situ hybridation

Prevalence and persistence of gymnodimines in clams from the Gulf of Gabes (Tunisia) studied by mouse bioassay and LC-MS/MS

In this work we studied the toxicity in clams from the Gulf of Gabes, Tunisia (Southern Mediterranean). Samples from two stations (M2 and S6) were collected monthly from January 2009 to September 2010, and analyzed by the official control method of mousse bioassay (MBA) for lipophilic toxins. All samples were also analyzed with the LC-MS/MS method for the determination of lipophilic toxins, namely: okadaic acid group, pectenotoxins, yessotoxins and azaspiracids, spirolides and gymnodimines (GYMs). The results showed prevalence of GYMs since it was the only toxin group identified in these samples with a maximum of 2,136 μg GYM -A kg-1 (February 2009 at M2). Furthermore, GYMs showed persistence in the area, with only one blank sample below the limit of detection. Interestingly, this blank sample was found in June 2009 after an important toxic episode which supports the recent findings regarding the high detoxification capability of clams, much faster than that reported for oysters. In comparison, good agreement was found among MBA, the LD50 value of 80-100 μg kg-1 reported for GYM- A, and quantitative results provided by LC-MS/MS. On the contrary to that previously reported for Tunisian clams, we unambiguously identified and quantified by LC-MS/MS the isomers GYM- B/C in most samples. Phytoplankton identification and enumeration of Karenia selliformis usually showed higher densities at site M2 than S6 as expected bearing in mind toxin results, although additional results would be required to improve the correlation between K. selliformis densities and quantitative results of toxins. The prevalence and persistence of GYMs in this area at high levels strongly encourages the evaluation of the chronic toxic effects of GYMs. This is especially important taking into account that relatively large quantities of GYMs can be released into the market due to the replacement of the official control method from mouse bioassay to the LC-MS/MS for lipophilic toxins (Regulation (EU) No 15/2011), and the lack of Regulation for this group of toxins.

¿Qué Calidad de Vida tienen nuestros asmáticos? Aplicación de la Versión Española Reducida del “Asthma Quality of Life Questionnaire” (AQLQ) o mini-AQLQ.

Estudio descriptivo transversal llevado a cabo en un centro urbano de atención primaria, con una muestra de 250 asmáticos, de entre 536 registrados en el centro, que pretende estudiar su calidad de vida y su relación con diferentes variables (edad, sexo, tabaquismo, patologías crónicas más prevalentes, ansiedad y/o depresión, rinitis alérgica, tipo de asma y grado de control). Para ello se les aplicó el test Mini-AQLQ, que valora la calidad de vida en una escala del 1 al 7 (15 preguntas), donde 1 supone el mayor grado de discapacidad y 7 el mayor grado de autonomía.

The effectiveness of market intervention policies to improve diet quality and to reduce the prevalence of obesity in Spain

Our project aims at analyzing the relevance of economic factors (mainly income and other socioeconomic characteristics of Spanish households and market prices) on the prevalence of obesity in Spain and to what extent market intervention prices are effective to reduce obesity and improve the quality of the diet, and under what circumstances. In relation to the existing literature worldwide, this project is the first attempt in Spain trying to get an overall picture on the effectiveness of public policies on both food consumption and the quality of diet, on one hand, and on the prevalence of obesity on the other. The project consists of four main parts. The first part represents a critical review of the literature on the economic approach of dealing with the obesity prevalence problems, diet quality and public intervention policies. Although another important body of obesity literature is dealing with physical exercise but in this paper we will limit our attention to those studies related to food consumption respecting the scope of our study and as there are many published literature review dealing with the literature related to the physical exercise and its effect on obesity prevalence. The second part consists of a Parametric and Non-Parametric Analysis of the Role of Economic Factors on Obesity Prevalence in Spain. The third part is trying to overcome the shortcomings of many diet quality indices that have been developed during last decades, such as the Healthy Eating Index, the Diet Quality Index, the Healthy Diet Indicator, and the Mediterranean Diet Score, through the development of a new obesity specific diet quality index. While the last part of our project concentrates on the assessment of the effectiveness of market intervention policies to improve the healthiness of the Spanish Diet Using the new Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) Demand System.

Prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers based on random breath tests in a roadside survey

Sobriety checkpoints are not usually randomly located by traffic authorities. As such, information provided by non-random alcohol tests cannot be used to infer the characteristics of the general driving population. In this paper a case study is presented in which the prevalence of alcohol-impaired driving is estimated for the general population of drivers. A stratified probabilistic sample was designed to represent vehicles circulating in non-urban areas of Catalonia (Spain), a region characterized by its complex transportation network and dense traffic around the metropolis of Barcelona. Random breath alcohol concentration tests were performed during spring 2012 on 7,596 drivers. The estimated prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers was 1.29%, which is roughly a third of the rate obtained in non-random tests. Higher rates were found on weekends (1.90% on Saturdays, 4.29% on Sundays) and especially at night. The rate is higher for men (1.45%) than for women (0.64%) and the percentage of positive outcomes shows an increasing pattern with age. In vehicles with two occupants, the proportion of alcohol-impaired drivers is estimated at 2.62%, but when the driver was alone the rate drops to 0.84%, which might reflect the socialization of drinking habits. The results are compared with outcomes in previous surveys, showing a decreasing trend in the prevalence of alcohol-impaired drivers over time.

Induced sputum versus exhaled nitric oxide for the evaluation of airway inflammation in allergic paediatric asthma patients treated with omalizumab

Our purpose is to determine the inflammatory changes in the airways of allergic paediatric asthma patients treated with omalizumab, measured by the percentage of eosinophils in induced sputum and exhaled nitric oxide (FENO). We observed a progressive and statistically significant decrease of eosinophil count in the induced sputum meanwhile FENO, although very sensible, was a less reproducible and thus a less reliable method to evaluate chronic airway inflammation in this population. Induced sputum seems to be a better method to monitor chronic inflammation and thus the response to chronic omalizumab treatment while FENO measurement would be more useful to monitor acute events preceding exacerbations.

The determinants of the prevalence of single mothers: A cross-country analysis

This paper examines the effect of public assistance, labor market and marriage marketconditions on the prevalence of single mother families across countries and over time. Amultinomial logit derived from a random utility approach is estimated using individualleveldata for 14 countries. I find evidence that increases in the level of public support are significantly and positively associated with a higher incidence of both never marriedand divorced mothers. The results also suggest that single mothers are more prevalentwhen female wages are lower. Higher male earnings and employment opportunities in awoman s marriage market appear to lead to fewer never married mothers, but more divorced mothers. Higher child support or alimony payments are associated with a higher prevalence of divorced mothers.

Prevalence of articular chondrocalcinosis in elderly subjects in a rural area of Catalonia

The occurrence of rheumatic disorders did not differ significantly between subjects with articular chondrocalcinosis and those without. CONCLUSIONS--Articular chondrocalcinosis is an age related disorder, which could partly explain the discrepancies in its prevalence reported in previous studies. In most subjects with articular chondrocalcinosis recruited from an unselected population the clinical manifestations are probably mild or even absent.

Prevalence of complications after the oral rehabilitation with implant-supported hybrid prostheses

Objectives: Assess the main problems referred by the patients and observed by the professionals after the bucodental rehabilitation with an implant-supported hybrid prothesis. Patients and Methods: A retrospective study was carried out in which there were 43 patients included who were visited in the Department of Oral Surgery and Orofacial Implantology of University of Barcelona Dental School for one year. An oral rehabilitation with an implant-supported hybrid prosthesis was made to those patients. The following variables were registered: age, gender, number of inserted implants, type of implant and principal problems produced by the hybrid prosthesis. Results: The rehabilitation with an implant supported hybrid prosthesis was only performed in 43 of 116 cases treated in one year (January, 2006 to January, 2007). They were 26 men and 17 women of ages between 37 and 74 years, being the rate age of 56,5 years. The main complication recorded was the mucositis, associated frequently with a difficulty to carry a correct oral hygiene and to an overextention of the tail of resin of the prosthesis. Other observed problems were the peri-implantitis, the break of the acrylic teeth and the loss of some of the prosthetic screws. Conclusions: The most frequent complication after the laying of an implant supported hybrid prosthesis was the mucositis, associated mainly with a prosthetic tail too long and to the consequent difficulty of carrying a correct oral hygiene. In spite of the high prevalence of observed complications, most of them were mild and resolved on subsequent visits.

Prevalence and costs of multinutrution in hospitalized patients; the PREDyCES study

Justificación y objetivos: El estudio PREDyCES® tuvo dos objetivos principales. Primero, analizar la prevalencia de desnutrición hospitalaria (DH) en España tanto al ingreso como al alta, y segundo, estimar sus costes asociados. Métodos: Estudio nacional, transversal, observacional, multicéntrico, en condiciones de práctica clínica habitual que evaluó la presencia de desnutrición hospitalaria al ingreso y al alta mediante el NRS-2002®. Una extensión del estudio analizó la incidencia de complicaciones asociadas a la desnutrición, el exceso de estancia hospitalaria y los costes sanitarios asociados a la DH. Resultados: La prevalencia de desnutrición observada según el NRS-2002® fue del 23.7%. El análisis multivariante mostró que la edad, el género, la presencia de enfermedad oncológica, diabetes mellitus, disfagia y la polimedicación fueron los factores principales que se asociaron a la presencia de desnutrición. La DH se asoció a un incremento de la estancia hospitalaria, especialmente en aquellos pacientes que ingresaron sin desnutrición y que presentaron desnutrición al alta (15.2 vs 8.0 días; p < 0.001), con un coste adicional asociado de 5.829€ por paciente. Conclusiones: Uno de cada cuatro pacientes en los hospitales españoles se encuentra desnutrido. Esta condición se asocia a un exceso de estancia hospitalaria y costes asociados, especialmente en pacientes que se desnutren durante su hospitalización. Se debería generalizar el cribado nutricional sistemático con el objetivo de implementar intervenciones nutricionales de conocida eficacia.

An epidemiological study of dental agenesis in a primary health area in Spain: estimated prevalence and associated factors

Objectives: To evaluate the prevalence of dental agenesis and its possible association with other developmental dental anomalies and systemic entities. Setting and Sample Population: Descriptive transversal study, for which 1518 clinical records, of patients visited by the Odontological Service of the Primary Health Centre of Cassà de la Selva (Girona-Spain) between December 2002 and February 2006 were reviewed. The data were recorded in relation to the oral and dental anomalies and the associated systemic entities, between the ones referred as concomitant in literature. Results: Values of 9.48% (7.25% excluding the third molars) for dental agenesis and 0.39% for oligodontia were obtained. The presence of dental agenesis concomitant with some other forms of oral and dental anomalies was observed. Attention must be drawn to the fact that a greater number of concomitant systemic entities were observed in those patients that presented a severe phenotypical pattern of dental agenesis. Conclusions: The results of the present study do not differ from the ones reported in studies of similar characteristics among Occidental and Spanish populations. The relationship observed between certain systemic entities and developmental dental anomalies suggest a possible common genetic etiology

Can Orthopantomography be used as a tool for screening of carotid atheromatous pathology and thus be used to help reduce the prevalence of ischemic stroke within the population?

Objective: To assess the possibility of Dentists being able to screen patients with higher risk of vascular diseases. Materials: Kodak 8000C Orthopantomographer, eco-Doppler Logiq-500 General Electric at the Lisbon Hospital Particular. Methods: Assessment of orthopantomographies made to 142 patients aged 50 or more, as well as the existing risk factors. Conduction of carotid eco-Doppler to patients who appear to have calcified plaques of the atheroma. Results: Strong dependence between dichotomised age and having the pathology (p = 0.02).Smokers are twice more likely to present plaques (OR= 2). Being hypertensive increases in about 1.4 the likelihood of having a stroke (OR= 1.4). Of the 27 individuals who presented calcifications in the Orthopantomography, they were all submitted to an eco-Doppler and 21 had the pathology confirmed. 27 individuals, who did not show any plaques in the Orthopantomography, were randomly selected to be the control group. They were submitted to an eco-Doppler. And 23 confirmed the non-existence of plaques. Conclusions: Orthopantomography used for assessing the oral cavity reveals more information which should be the object of the Dentist"s attention