Wave-height hazard analysis in Eastern Coast of Spain : Bayesian approach using generalized Pareto distribution

Standard practice of wave-height hazard analysis often pays little attention to the uncertainty of assessed return periods and occurrence probabilities. This fact favors the opinion that, when large events happen, the hazard assessment should change accordingly. However, uncertainty of the hazard estimates is normally able to hide the effect of those large events. This is illustrated using data from the Mediterranean coast of Spain, where the last years have been extremely disastrous. Thus, it is possible to compare the hazard assessment based on data previous to those years with the analysis including them. With our approach, no significant change is detected when the statistical uncertainty is taken into account. The hazard analysis is carried out with a standard model. Time-occurrence of events is assumed Poisson distributed. The wave-height of each event is modelled as a random variable which upper tail follows a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Moreover, wave-heights are assumed independent from event to event and also independent of their occurrence in time. A threshold for excesses is assessed empirically. The other three parameters (Poisson rate, shape and scale parameters of GPD) are jointly estimated using Bayes' theorem. Prior distribution accounts for physical features of ocean waves in the Mediterranean sea and experience with these phenomena. Posterior distribution of the parameters allows to obtain posterior distributions of other derived parameters like occurrence probabilities and return periods. Predictives are also available. Computations are carried out using the program BGPE v2.0

The sustainable debts of Philip II: A reconstruction of Castile's fiscal position, 1566-1596

The defaults of Philip II have attained mythical status as the origin of sovereigndebt crises. We reassess the fiscal position of Habsburg Castile, derivingcomprehensive estimates of revenue, debt, and expenditure from new archivaldata. The king s debts were sustainable. Primary surpluses were large and rising.Debt-to-revenue ratios remained broadly unchanged during Philip s reign.Castilian finances in the sixteenth century compare favorably with those of otherearly modern fiscal states at the height of their imperial ambitions, includingBritain. The defaults of Philip II therefore reflected short-term liquidity crises,and were not a sign of unsustainable debts.

Influence of premetallization surface treatment on the formation of Schottky Au-nGaN contacts

The influence of premetallization surface preparation on the structural, chemical, and electrical properties of Au-nGaN interfaces has been investigated by x-ray photoemission spectroscopy (XPS), current-voltage measurement (I-V) and cross-section transmission electron microscopy (TEM). XPS analysis showed that the three GaN substrate treatments investigated i.e., ex situ hydrofluoric acid etch, in situ anneal in ultrahigh-vacuum (UHV), and in situ Ga reflux cleaning in UHV result in surfaces increasingly free of oxygen contamination. XPS and TEM characterization of Au-nGaN formed after the three premetallization surface treatments show that HF etching and UHV annealing produce abrupt, well-defined interfaces. Conversely, GaN substrate cleaning in a Ga flux results in Au/GaN intermixing. I-V characterization of Au¿nGaN contacts yields a Schottky barrier height of 1.25 eV with a very low-ideality factor and very good contact uniformity for the premetallization UHV anneal, while the Ga reflux cleaning results in a much lower barrier (0.85 eV), with poor ideality and uniformity. I-V and XPS results suggest a high density of acceptor states at the surface, which is further enhanced by UHV annealing. These results are discussed in the context of current models of Schottky barrier formation.

Barrier for the reaction X20+ + X20+ -> X402+ in alkali-metal clusters related to electron density at the bond midpoint of the supermolecule (X20+)2

Using the extended Thomas-Fermi version of density-functional theory (DFT), calculations are presented for the barrier for the reaction Na20++Na20+¿Na402+. The deviation from the simple Coulomb barrier is shown to be proportional to the electron density at the bond midpoint of the supermolecule (Na20+)2. An extension of conventional quantum-chemical studies of homonuclear diatomic molecular ions is then effected to apply to the supermolecular ions of the alkali metals. This then allows the Na results to be utilized to make semiquantitative predictions of position and height of the maximum of the fusion barrier for other alkali clusters. These predictions are confirmed by means of similar DFT calculations for the K clusters.

Deformed-jellium model for the fission of multiply charged metal clusters

A deformed-jellium model is used to calculate the fission barrier height of positive doubly charged sodium clusters within an extended Thomas-Fermi approximation. The fissioning cluster is continuously deformed from the parent configuration until it splits into two fragments. Although the shape of the fission barrier obviously depends on the parametrization of the fission path, we have found that remarkably, the maximum of the barrier corresponds to a configuration in which the emerging fragments are already formed and rather well apart. The implication of this finding in the calculation of critical numbers for fission is illustrated in the case of multiply charged Na clusters.

Geomorphological method in the elaboration of hazard maps for flash-floods in the municipality of Jucuarán (El Salvador)

This work deals with the elaboration of flood hazard maps. These maps reflect the areas prone to floods based on the effects of Hurricane Mitch in the Municipality of Jucuarán of El Salvador. Stream channels located in the coastal range in the SE of El Salvador flow into the Pacific Ocean and generate alluvial fans. Communities often inhabit these fans can be affected by floods. The geomorphology of these stream basins is associated with small areas, steep slopes, well developed regolite and extensive deforestation. These features play a key role in the generation of flash-floods. This zone lacks comprehensive rainfall data and gauging stations. The most detailed topographic maps are on a scale of 1:25 000. Given that the scale was not sufficiently detailed, we used aerial photographs enlarged to the scale of 1:8000. The effects of Hurricane Mitch mapped on these photographs were regarded as the reference event. Flood maps have a dual purpose (1) community emergency plans, (2) regional land use planning carried out by local authorities. The geomorphological method is based on mapping the geomorphological evidence (alluvial fans, preferential stream channels, erosion and sedimentation, man-made terraces). Following the interpretation of the photographs this information was validated on the field and complemented by eyewitness reports such as the height of water and flow typology. In addition, community workshops were organized to obtain information about the evolution and the impact of the phenomena. The superimposition of this information enables us to obtain a comprehensive geomorphological map. Another aim of the study was the calculation of the peak discharge using the Manning and the paleohydraulic methods and estimates based on geomorphologic criterion. The results were compared with those obtained using the rational method. Significant differences in the order of magnitude of the calculated discharges were noted. The rational method underestimated the results owing to short and discontinuous periods of rainfall data with the result that probabilistic equations cannot be applied. The Manning method yields a wide range of results because of its dependence on the roughness coefficient. The paleohydraulic method yielded higher values than the rational and Manning methods. However, it should be pointed out that it is possible that bigger boulders could have been moved had they existed. These discharge values are lower than those obtained by the geomorphological estimates, i.e. much closer to reality. The flood hazard maps were derived from the comprehensive geomorphological map. Three categories of hazard were established (very high, high and moderate) using flood energy, water height and velocity flow deduced from geomorphological and eyewitness reports.

Spatial variability of tree hight at treeline ecotones in the Pyrenees.

We describe the spatial distribution of tree height of Pinus uncinata at two undisturbed altitudinal treeline ecotones in the southern Pyrenees (Ordesa, O, and Tessó, T). At each site, a rectangular plot (30 x 140 m) was located with its longest side parallel to the slope and encompassing treeline and timberline. At site O, height increased abruptly going downslope with a high spatial autocorrelation at short distances. In contrast, the changes of tree height across the ecotone at site T were gradual, and tree height was less spatially autocorrelated. These results can be explained by the greater importance of wind and snow avalanches at sites O and T, respectively.

Creation and Validation of Chronojump-Boscosystem: A Free Tool to Measure Vertical Jumps

Measuring the height of the vertical jump is an indicator of the strength and power of the lower body. The technological tools available to measure the vertical jump are black boxes and are not open to third-party verification or adaptation. We propose the creation of a measurement system called Chronojump-Boscosystem, consisting of open hardware and free software. Methods: A microcontroller was created and validated using a square wave generator and an oscilloscope. Two types of contact platforms were developed using different materials. These platforms were validated by the minimum pressure required for activation at different points by a strain gauge, together with the on/off time of our platforms in respect of the Ergojump-Boscosystem platform by a sample of 8 subjects performing submaximal jumps with one foot on each platform. Agile methodologies were used to develop and validate the software. Results: All the tools fall under the free software / open hardware guidelines and are, in that sense, free. The microcontroller margin of error is 0.1%. The validity of the fiberglass platform is 0.95 (ICC). The management software contains nearly 113.000 lines of code and is available in 7 languages.

Valuations, intersections et fonctions de Belyi

We present in this article several possibilities to approach the height of an algebraic curve defined over a number field : as an intersection number via the Arakelov theory, as a limit point of the heights of its algebraic points and, finally, using the minimal degree of Belyi functions.

Petits points et conjecture de Bogomolov

This paper is devoted to the statement known as the Bogomolov conjecture on small points. We present the outline of Zhang’s proof of the generalized version of the conjecture. An explicit bound for the height of a non-torsion variety of an abelian variety is obtained in the frame of Arakelov theory. Some further developments are mentioned.

Sharpened lower bounds for cut elimination

We present sharpened lower bounds on the size of cut free proofs for first-order logic. Prior lower bounds for eliminating cuts from a proof established superexponential lower bounds as a stack of exponentials, with the height of the stack proportional to the maximum depth d of the formulas in the original proof. Our new lower bounds remove the constant of proportionality, giving an exponential stack of height equal to d − O(1). The proof method is based on more efficiently expressing the Gentzen-Solovay cut formulas as low depth formulas.

Capital formation in machinery in Latin America, 1890-1930

Investment in machinery is a key aspect in the analysis of long-term economic growth during the era of the spread of industrialisation. But, historiography has only revealed what the pace of capital accumulation was in a few Latin American economies. This article offers continuous (annual) and consistent series on the magnitude of this investment in all of the Latin American countries for the period at the height of the first globalisation, 1890-1930. The paper gives special attention to comparative analysis, showing the differences that exist at the heart of the Latin American community, in the levels of capital formation in machinery as well as in the national development of this over time. The differences in the levels appear very indicative of the unequal degree of development reached by these economies. This article puts to test the hypothesis of intraregional divergence, obtaining the tentative result that there was divergence until 1913, but that there was convergence from 1914-1930.

Controlled-intensity detection peaks in a binary joint transform correlator

In multiobject pattern recognition the height of the correlation peaks should be controlled when the power spectrum of ajoint transform correlator is binarized. In this paper a method to predetermine the value of detection peaks is demonstrated. The technique is based on a frequency-variant threshold in order to remove the intraclass terms and on a suitable factor to normalize the binary joint power spectrum. Digital simulations and experimental hybrid implementation of this method were carried out.

Rockfall travel distance analysis by using empirical models (Solà d'Andorra la Vella, Central Pyrenees)

The prediction of rockfall travel distance below a rock cliff is an indispensable activity in rockfall susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment. Although the size of the detached rock mass may differ considerably at each specific rock cliff, small rockfall (<100 m3) is the most frequent process. Empirical models may provide us with suitable information for predicting the travel distance of small rockfalls over an extensive area at a medium scale (1:100 000¿1:25 000). "Solà d'Andorra la Vella" is a rocky slope located close to the town of Andorra la Vella, where the government has been documenting rockfalls since 1999. This documentation consists in mapping the release point and the individual fallen blocks immediately after the event. The documentation of historical rockfalls by morphological analysis, eye-witness accounts and historical images serve to increase available information. In total, data from twenty small rockfalls have been gathered which reveal an amount of a hundred individual fallen rock blocks. The data acquired has been used to check the reliability of the main empirical models widely adopted (reach and shadow angle models) and to analyse the influence of parameters which affecting the travel distance (rockfall size, height of fall along the rock cliff and volume of the individual fallen rock block). For predicting travel distances in maps with medium scales, a method has been proposed based on the "reach probability" concept. The accuracy of results has been tested from the line entailing the farthest fallen boulders which represents the maximum travel distance of past rockfalls. The paper concludes with a discussion of the application of both empirical models to other study areas.

Impacte d'un programa d'activitat física basat en el mètode Klapp i Stretching Global Actiu sobre la postura de persones adultes amb escoliosi idiopàtica

La simetria entre espatlles i l’alçada de les dues crestes ilíaques es perd quan es pateix escoliosi. Aquest empitjorament de la bona postura té conseqüències negatives per a la salut, especialment en el sistema musculoesquelètic. L’objecte principal d’aquest treball és avaluar l’impacte d’un programa d’activitat física basat en la combinació dels mètodes “Klapp” i l’“Stretching Global Actiu” sobre la postura en bipedestació de persones adultes que pateixen escoliosi idiopàtica. L’aplicació d’ambdós mètodes de forma individual no obtenen millores en aquests paràmetres en persones adultes, però en canvi en nens i nenes sí. El treball és un estudi experimental en el qual es va assignar un subjecte al grup intervenció i un subjecte al grup control. El subjecte del grup intervenció va realitzar un programa de 20 sessions de 45 – 60 minuts de treball amb aquests dos mètodes de treball físic. El subjecte del grup control va seguir la seva activitat habitual. Abans i després de la intervenció, es varen mesurar les variables dependents principals i secundaries respectivament. Els resultats obtinguts han revelat una petita millora en la simetria de les espatlles (+0,2 cms.) en el grup intervenció però no en la simetria de l’altura de les crestes ilíaques. El grup control no ha presentat canvis. Per tant, podem dir que és útil utilitzar la combinació dels dos mètodes físics per a millorar la postura en persones adultes que pateixen escoliosi idiopàtica.