Calibration and application of the MN2D dynamics model to the avalanches of Las Leñas (Argentina)

During the winters of 1999 and 2000 large avalanches occurred in the ski resort of Las Leñas (Los Andes, Mendoza, Argentina). On 8 September 1999 an avalanche of new, dry snow ran over a path with a 1000 m vertical drop. On 30 June and on 1 July 2000 five avalanches of similar vertical drop, which start with new snow, entrained very wet snow during their descent, and evolved into dense snow avalanches. To use the MN2D dynamics model correctly, calibration of model parameters is necessary. Also, no previous works with the use of dynamics models exist in South America. The events used to calibrate the model occurred during the winters of 1999 and 2000 and are a good sample of the kind of avalanches which can occur in this area of the Andes range. By considering the slope morphology and topography, the snow and meteorological conditions and the results of the model simulations, it was estimated that these avalanches were not extreme events with a return period greater than one hundred years. This implies that, in natural conditions, bigger, extreme avalanches could happen. In this work, the MN2D dynamics model is calibrated with two different avalanches of the same magnitude: dry and wet. The importance of the topographic data in the simulation is evaluated. It is concluded that MN2D dynamics model can be used to simulate dry extreme avalanches in Argentinean Andes but not to simulate extreme wet avalanches, which are much more sensitive to the topography.

Detection of millimetric deformation using a terrestrial laser scanner: experiment and application to a rockfall event

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) is one of the most promising surveying techniques for rockslope characterization and monitoring. Landslide and rockfall movements can be detected by means of comparison of sequential scans. One of the most pressing challenges of natural hazards is combined temporal and spatial prediction of rockfall. An outdoor experiment was performed to ascertain whether the TLS instrumental error is small enough to enable detection of precursory displacements of millimetric magnitude. This consists of a known displacement of three objects relative to a stable surface. Results show that millimetric changes cannot be detected by the analysis of the unprocessed datasets. Displacement measurement are improved considerably by applying Nearest Neighbour (NN) averaging, which reduces the error (1¿) up to a factor of 6. This technique was applied to displacements prior to the April 2007 rockfall event at Castellfollit de la Roca, Spain. The maximum precursory displacement measured was 45 mm, approximately 2.5 times the standard deviation of the model comparison, hampering the distinction between actual displacement and instrumental error using conventional methodologies. Encouragingly, the precursory displacement was clearly detected by applying the NN averaging method. These results show that millimetric displacements prior to failure can be detected using TLS.

Application of metabolic engineering to the production of scopolamine

Scopolamine is an alkaloid widely used in medicine for its anticholinergic activity. The aim of this review is to show that metabolic engineering techniques constitute a suitable tool to improve the production of tropane alkaloids, focusing in particular on scopolamine. We present an overview of results obtained by various research groups, including our own, who have studied the overexpression of genes involved in the biosynthesis of scopolamine in different plant species that produce tropane alkaloids. Experiments carried out to improve production in hairy root cultures will also be described, as well as those attempting to biotransform hyoscyamine into scopolamine in roots and transgenic tobacco cells.

Adapting football to the child: an application of the logistic regression model in observational mewthodology.

Logistic regression is included into the analysis techniques which are valid for observationalmethodology. However, its presence at the heart of thismethodology, and more specifically in physical activity and sports studies, is scarce. With a view to highlighting the possibilities this technique offers within the scope of observational methodology applied to physical activity and sports, an application of the logistic regression model is presented. The model is applied in the context of an observational design which aims to determine, from the analysis of use of the playing area, which football discipline (7 a side football, 9 a side football or 11 a side football) is best adapted to the child"s possibilities. A multiple logistic regression model can provide an effective prognosis regarding the probability of a move being successful (reaching the opposing goal area) depending on the sector in which the move commenced and the football discipline which is being played.

A fuzzy-based decision model application on strategic management

In this article, the objective is to demonstrate the effects of different decision styles on strategic decisions and likewise, on an organization. The technique that was presented in the study is based on the transformation of linguistic variables to numerical value intervals. In this model, the study benefits from fuzzy logic methodology and fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy methodology approach allows us to examine the relations between decision making styles and strategic management processes when there is uncertainty. The purpose is to provide results to companies that may help them to exercise the most appropriate decision making style for its different strategic management processes. The study is leaving more research topics for further studies that may be applied to other decision making areas within the strategic management process.

A new aggregation method for strategic decision making and its application in assignment theory

A new aggregation method for decision making is presented by using induced aggregation operators and the index of maximum and minimum level. Its main advantage is that it can assess complex reordering processes in the aggregation that represent complex attitudinal characters of the decision maker such as psychological or personal factors. A wide range of properties and particular cases of this new approach are studied. A further generalization by using hybrid averages and immediate weights is also presented. The key issue in this approach against the previous model is that we can use the weighted average and the ordered weighted average in the same formulation. Thus, we are able to consider the subjective attitude and the degree of optimism of the decision maker in the decision process. The paper ends with an application in a decision making problem based on the use of the assignment theory.

The Uncertain generalized probabilistic weighted average and its application in the theory of expertons

A new model for dealing with decision making under risk by considering subjective and objective information in the same formulation is here presented. The uncertain probabilistic weighted average (UPWA) is also presented. Its main advantage is that it unifies the probability and the weighted average in the same formulation and considering the degree of importance that each case has in the analysis. Moreover, it is able to deal with uncertain environments represented in the form of interval numbers. We study some of its main properties and particular cases. The applicability of the UPWA is also studied and it is seen that it is very broad because all the previous studies that use the probability or the weighted average can be revised with this new approach. Focus is placed on a multi-person decision making problem regarding the selection of strategies by using the theory of expertons.

Technological, biopharmaceutical and pharmacokinetic advances: new formulations of application on the skin and oral mucosa

Currently a growing interest to improve the pharmacological therapy exists, not only by the production and the appearance of new drugs, but guaranteeing that the uses of those which already exist, become more effective. In fact, the conventional pharmaceutical formulations of different drugs present a few secondary effects due to oral administration. In order to avoid these undesired side effects, the purpose of current therapeutic is the development and research of formulations as an alternative to others routes of administration. Therefore, in spite of the undoubtedly complete parenteral absorption, the transdermal and transbuccal routes appear to be a rather attractive alternative to provide an efficient absorption. In this chapter a new technological, biopharmaceutical and pharmacokinetic approach of strategies for application on skin and buccal mucosa are reported. In the future new transdermal drug delivery systems will emerge to be more effective, equipped with an improved aesthetic appearance, better adherence and greater diffusion. But to reach these aims, it is necessary previous knowledge of histology and physiology of skin, and factors involved in the penetration of drugs through it.

Space Competition and Time Delays in Human Range Expansions. Application to the Neolithic Transition

Space competition effects are well-known in many microbiological and ecological systems. Here we analyze such an effectin human populations. The Neolithic transition (change from foraging to farming) was mainly the outcome of a demographic process that spread gradually throughout Europe from the Near East. In Northern Europe, archaeological data show a slowdown on the Neolithic rate of spread that can be related to a high indigenous (Mesolithic) population density hindering the advance as a result of the space competition between the two populations. We measure this slowdown from a database of 902 Early Neolithic sites and develop a time-delayed reaction-diffusion model with space competition between Neolithic and Mesolithic populations, to predict the observed speeds. The comparison of the predicted speed with the observations and with a previous non-delayed model show that both effects, the time delay effect due to the generation lag and the space competition between populations, are crucial in order to understand the observations

Empirical study about the effects of the application of IAS 32 in Cooperatives

Objecte: L'aplicació de la NIC 32 en les cooperatives ha generat una important controvèrsia en els últims anys. Fins al moment, s'han realitzat diversos treballs que intenten preveure els possibles efectes de la seva aplicació. Aquest treball pretén analitzar l'impacte de la primera aplicació de la NIC 32 en el sector cooperatiu. Disseny/metodologia/enfocament: S'ha seleccionat una mostra de 98 cooperatives, i s'ha realitzat una anàlisi comparativa de la seva informació financera presentada abans i després de l'aplicació de la NIC 32, per a determinar les diferències existents. S’ha utilitzat la prova de la suma de rangs de Wilcoxon per comprovar si aquestes diferències són significatives. També s’ha utilitzat la prova de la U de Mann Whitney per comprovar si existeixen diferències significatives en l’impacte relatiu de l’aplicació de la NIC 32 entre diversos grups de cooperatives. Finalment, s'ha realitzat una anàlisi dels efectes de l'aplicació de la NIC 32 en la situació patrimonial i econòmica de les cooperatives, i en l'evolució dels seus actius intangibles, mitjançant l’ús de tècniques d’anàlisi econòmico-financera. Aportacions i resultats: Els resultats obtinguts confirmen que l'aplicació de la NIC 32 provoca diferències significatives en algunes partides del balanç de situació i el compte de pèrdues i guanys, així com en les ràtios analitzades. Les principals diferències es concreten en una reducció del nivell de capitalització i un augment de l'endeutament de les cooperatives, així com un empitjorament general dels ràtios de solvència i autonomia financera. Limitacions: Cal tenir en compte que el treball s'ha realitzat amb una mostra de cooperatives que estan obligades a auditar els seus comptes anuals. Per tant, els resultats obtinguts han d'interpretar-se en un context de cooperatives de tamany elevat. També cal tenir en compte que hem realitzat una anàlisi comparativa dels comptes anuals de 2011 i 2010. Això ens ha permès conèixer les diferències en la informació financera de les cooperatives abans i després d'aplicar la NIC 32. Encara que algunes d’aquestes diferències també podrien estar causades per altres factors com la situació econòmica, els canvis en l'aplicació de les normes comptables, etc. Originalitat/valor afegit: Creiem que és el moment idoni per a realitzar aquest treball d'investigació, ja que des de 2011 totes les cooperatives espanyoles han d'aplicar les normes comptables adaptades a la NIC 32. A més, fins on coneixem, no existeixen altres treballs similars realitzats amb comptes anuals de cooperatives que ja han aplicat les normes comptables adaptades a la NIC 32 . Creiem que els resultats d'aquest treball d'investigació poden ser útils per a diferents grups d'interès. En primer lloc, perquè els organismes emissors de normes comptables puguin conèixer l'abast de la NIC 32 en les cooperatives i, puguin plantejar millores en el contingut de la norma. En segon lloc, perquè les pròpies cooperatives, federacions, confederacions i altres organismes cooperatius disposin d'informació sobre l'impacte econòmic de la primera aplicació de la NIC 32, i puguin realitzar les valoracions que creguin convenients. I en tercer lloc, perquè les entitats financeres, auditors i assessors de cooperatives i altres grups d'interès disposin d'informació sobre els canvis en els comptes anuals de les cooperatives, i puguin tenir-los en compte a l'hora de prendre decisions. Paraules clau: Cooperatives, patrimoni net, capital social, NIC 32, solvència, efectes de la normativa comptable, informació financera, ràtios.

Inclusion of soil erosion impacts in life cycle assessment on a global scale: application to energy crops in Spain

Purpose: Despite the fundamental role of ecosystem goods and services in sustaining human activities, there is no harmonized and internationally agreed method for including them in life cycle assessment (LCA). The main goal of this study was to develop a globally applicable and spatially resolved method for assessing land-use impacts on the erosion regulation ecosystem service.Methods: Soil erosion depends much on location. Thus, unlike conventional LCA, the endpoint method was regionalized at the grid-cell level (5 arc-minutes, approximately 10×10 km2) to reflect the spatial conditions of the site. Spatially explicit characterization factors were not further aggregated at broader spatial scales. Results and discussion: Life cycle inventory data of topsoil and topsoil organic carbon (SOC) losses were interpreted at the endpoint level in terms of the ultimate damage to soil resources and ecosystem quality. Human health damages were excluded from the assessment. The method was tested on a case study of five three-year agricultural rotations, two of them with energy crops, grown in several locations in Spain. A large variation in soil and SOC losses was recorded in the inventory step, depending on climatic and edaphic conditions. The importance of using a spatially explicit model and characterization factors is shown in the case study.Conclusions and outlook: The regionalized assessment takes into account the differences in soil erosion-related environmental impacts caused by the great variability of soils. Taking this regionalized framework as the starting point, further research should focus on testing the applicability of the method trough the complete life cycle of a product and on determining an appropriate spatial scale at which to aggregate characterization factors, in order to deal with data gaps on location of processes, especially in the background system. Additional research should also focus on improving reliability of the method by quantifying and, insofar as it is possible, reducing uncertainty.

An application of capital allocation principles to operational risk

The cost of operational risk refers to the capital needed to a fford the loss generated by ordinary activities of a firm. In this work we demonstrate how allocation principles can be used to the subdivision of the aggregate capital so that the firm can distribute this cost across its various constituents that generate operational risk. Several capital allocation principles are revised. Proportional allocation allows to calculate a relative risk premium to be charged to each unit. An example of fraud risk in the banking sector is presented and some correlation scenarios between business lines are compared. Keywords: solvency, quantile, value at risk, copulas

Application of the Mutual Information Minimization to speaker recognition / identification improvement

In this paper we propose the inversion of nonlinear distortions in order to improve the recognition rates of a speaker recognizer system. We study the effect of saturations on the test signals, trying to take into account real situations where the training material has been recorded in a controlled situation but the testing signals present some mismatch with the input signal level (saturations). The experimental results for speaker recognition shows that a combination of several strategies can improve the recognition rates with saturated test sentences from 80% to 89.39%, while the results with clean speech (without saturation) is 87.76% for one microphone, and for speaker identification can reduce the minimum detection cost function with saturated test sentences from 6.42% to 4.15%, while the results with clean speech (without saturation) is 5.74% for one microphone and 7.02% for the other one.

Application of Multi-SNP Approaches Bayesian LASSO and AUC-RF to Detect Main Effects of Inflammatory-Gene Variants Associated with Bladder Cancer Risk

The relationship between inflammation and cancer is well established in several tumor types, including bladder cancer. We performed an association study between 886 inflammatory-gene variants and bladder cancer risk in 1,047 cases and 988 controls from the Spanish Bladder Cancer (SBC)/EPICURO Study. A preliminary exploration with the widely used univariate logistic regression approach did not identify any significant SNP after correcting for multiple testing. We further applied two more comprehensive methods to capture the complexity of bladder cancer genetic susceptibility: Bayesian Threshold LASSO (BTL), a regularized regression method, and AUC-Random Forest, a machine-learning algorithm. Both approaches explore the joint effect of markers. BTL analysis identified a signature of 37 SNPs in 34 genes showing an association with bladder cancer. AUC-RF detected an optimal predictive subset of 56 SNPs. 13 SNPs were identified by both methods in the total population. Using resources from the Texas Bladder Cancer study we were able to replicate 30% of the SNPs assessed. The associations between inflammatory SNPs and bladder cancer were reexamined among non-smokers to eliminate the effect of tobacco, one of the strongest and most prevalent environmental risk factor for this tumor. A 9 SNP-signature was detected by BTL. Here we report, for the first time, a set of SNP in inflammatory genes jointly associated with bladder cancer risk. These results highlight the importance of the complex structure of genetic susceptibility associated with cancer risk.

Application of European accounting standards to the public healthcare sector: a comparative study on the application of the European System of Accounts ESA-95 to healthcare centres in the United Kingdom, France and Germany

This report aims to analyse how European accounting standards (European System of Accounts ESA-95) are interpreted and applied to the public healthcare sector, from the standpoint of comparative law. Specifically, the study focuses on the application of ESA-95 to healthcare centres in the United Kingdom, France and Germany, with the aim of reaching useful conclusions for the Public Companies and Consortia (EPIC, for their initials in Catalan) in the Catalan Public Healthcare System.