Un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia empresarial basado en variables financieras. Su aplicación al caso textil catalán (1994-1997)

En este documento se formula un modelo de predicción de la insolvencia a través de la combinación de diferentes variables cuantitativas extraídas de los estados contables de una muestra de empresas para los años 1994-1997. Partiendo del modelo de flexibilidad financiera de Donaldson, que es adaptado por Van Frederikslust a la predicción de la insolvencia, lo que aquí se expone es una aplicación a una muestra de empresas de los sectores textil y confección. Aunque los resultados no son alentadores, lo más importante es destacar cómo a través de una modelización de este tipo, probamos una formulación teórica del problema.

Classification models for neurocognitive impairment in HIV infection based on demographic and clinical variables

Objective: We used demographic and clinical data to design practical classification models for prediction of neurocognitive impairment (NCI) in people with HIV infection. Methods: The study population comprised 331 HIV-infected patients with available demographic, clinical, and neurocognitive data collected using a comprehensive battery of neuropsychological tests. Classification and regression trees (CART) were developed to btain detailed and reliable models to predict NCI. Following a practical clinical approach, NCI was considered the main variable for study outcomes, and analyses were performed separately in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced patients. Results: The study sample comprised 52 treatment-naïve and 279 experienced patients. In the first group, the variables identified as better predictors of NCI were CD4 cell count and age (correct classification [CC]: 79.6%, 3 final nodes). In treatment-experienced patients, the variables most closely related to NCI were years of education, nadir CD4 cell count, central nervous system penetration-effectiveness score, age, employment status, and confounding comorbidities (CC: 82.1%, 7 final nodes). In patients with an undetectable viral load and no comorbidities, we obtained a fairly accurate model in which the main variables were nadir CD4 cell count, current CD4 cell count, time on current treatment, and past highest viral load (CC: 88%, 6 final nodes). Conclusion: Practical classification models to predict NCI in HIV infection can be obtained using demographic and clinical variables. An approach based on CART analyses may facilitate screening for HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders and complement clinical information about risk and protective factors for NCI in HIV-infected patients.

Variables que incideixen en el coneixement de català i castellà de l'alumnat estranger a Catalunya: un estudi amb alumnat de sisè de primària

El domini de la llengua escolar apareix en totes les polítiques educatives com el tema central a través del qual s’ha d’incidir per garantir la igualtat i la cohesió social, ja que l’èxit escolar passa per desenvolupar una bona competència en la llengua vehicular de l’ensenyament (OECD 2008). A Catalunya, tot i els esforços destinats, els resultats lingüístics de l’alumnat estranger continuen essent molt més baixos que els de l’alumnat nacional (Consell Superior d’Avaluació del Sistema Educatiu 2009). No obstant això, hi ha molt pocs estudis que hagin analitzat els factors que s’amaguen darrere dels resultats lingüístics de l’alumnat estranger. Amb aquest objectiu en ment, l’article presenta les dades d’una recerca que pretén aprofundir les variables que incideixen en el coneixement de català i castellà escrit de l’alumnat estranger escolaritzat en 57 escoles de primària repartides pel territori de Catalunya

Parental body condition does not correlate with offspring sex-ratio in Cory's shearwater

We analyzed offspring sex ratio variation in Mediterranean Cory's Shearwater (Calonectris d. diomedea) during two consecutive breeding seasons in two colonies. We test for differential breeding conditions between years and colonies looking at several breeding parameters and parental condition. We then explored the relationship between offspring sex ratio and parental condition and breeding parameters. This species is sexually dimorphic with males larger and heavier than females; consequently we expected differential parental cost in rearing sexes, or a greater sensitivity of male chicks to adverse conditions, which may lead to biased sex ratios. Chicks were sexed molecularly by the amplification of the CHD genes. Offspring sex ratio did not differ from parity, either at hatching or fledging, regardless of the colony or year. However, parental body condition and breeding parameters such as egg size and breeding success were different between years and colonies. Nevertheless, neither nestling mortality nor body condition at fledging varied between years or colonies, suggesting that male and female chicks were probably not differentially affected by variability in breeding conditions.

Caracterització del temps de vol en relació amb variables biomecàniques de l’estirada en l’arrencada d’halterofília

L’objecte del present estudi és caracteritzar el temps de vol (Tv) de la fase aèria en l’exercici d’arrencada en halterofília. Es descriu el seu comportament en funció de l’increment progressiu de la càrrega i en relació a variables biomecàniques de l’estirada, així com la seva evolució en un cicle d’entrenament. Es va fer un test màxim de càrregues progressives amb set halterofilistes (n = 7) de competició. Mitjançant els sistemes de valoració Musclelab i Chronojump es van registrar els valors de: força (F), potència (P), velocitat (V), pic de velocitat (pV) i alçada relativa (Hrel ) de la barra en l’estirada, al costat del Tv del desplaçament dels peus de l’aixecador a l’entrada sota la barra. Es va observar una moderada correlació negativa (r = –0,561; p < 0,01) entre el Tv i la càrrega màxima del test (%1RMT). No es van trobar correlacions significatives per al Tv respecte a la resta de variables analitzades. El Tv disminuïa amb l’increment de la càrrega en rangs submàxims, i era de natura aleatòria amb l’ocupació de càrregues màximes. En un subgrup de la mostra (n = 4) es van valorar les mateixes variables passades vuit setmanes. El Tv, la Pmàx i el pV suggereixen ser variables suficientment sensibles per monitoritzar els canvis generats per l’entrenament en vuit setmanes, encara que la reduïda dimensió mostral no va permetre aconseguir diferències significatives. Aquests resultats destaquen la possibilitat de considerar el Tv i la P com a mesures de control en l’entrenament d’halterofilistes, preferentment en l’ús de càrregues submàximes.

Comparación de la capacidad predictiva de los modelos de coeficientes fijos frente a variables en los modelos econométricos regionales: un análisis para Cataluña

Durante las últimas décadas se ha producido un creciente interés en nuestro país en relación a las economías regionales dada la necesidad de los gobiernos regionales de obtener información sobre sus economías para así llevar a cabo actuaciones de política económica más efectivas y eficientes. En este marco, los modelos econométricos constituyen una herramienta de utilidad puesto que ofrecen información sobre las relaciones estructurales que se dan en una economía y permiten predecir su evolución. Sin embargo, la utilización de dichos modelos con finalidad predictiva se enfrenta al inconveniente de la elevada inestabilidad a corto plazo que se produce en las relaciones entre variables económicas a nivel regional. Por este motivo, en el presente trabajo se propone la utilización de un modelo de coeficientes variables para recoger dicha inestabilidad y mejorar las predicciones sobre la evolución de las variables del bloque de producción de la economía catalana. Para contrastar la mejora obtenida a partir de la aplicación de dicho modelo, se compara su capacidad predictiva con la de un modelo de coeficientes fijos. Los resultados muestran un mejor comportamiento del modelo de coeficientes variables frente al modelo de coeficientes fijos.

Sociodemographic Factors and Clinical Conditions Associated to Hospitalization in Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 Virus Infected Patients in Spain, 2009-2010

The emergence and pandemic spread of a new strain of influenza A (H1N1) virus in 2009 resulted in a serious alarm in clinical and public health services all over the world. One distinguishing feature of this new influenza pandemic was the different profile of hospitalized patients compared to those from traditional seasonal influenza infections. Our goal was to analyze sociodemographic and clinical factors associated to hospitalization following infection by influenza A(H1N1) virus. We report the results of a Spanish nationwide study with laboratory confirmed infection by the new pandemic virus in a case-control design based on hospitalized patients. The main risk factors for hospitalization of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 were determined to be obesity (BMI≥40, with an odds-ratio [OR] 14.27), hematological neoplasia (OR 10.71), chronic heart disease, COPD (OR 5.16) and neurological disease, among the clinical conditions, whereas low education level and some ethnic backgrounds (Gypsies and Amerinds) were the sociodemographic variables found associated to hospitalization. The presence of any clinical condition of moderate risk almost triples the risk of hospitalization (OR 2.88) and high risk conditions raise this value markedly (OR 6.43). The risk of hospitalization increased proportionally when for two (OR 2.08) or for three or more (OR 4.86) risk factors were simultaneously present in the same patient. These findings should be considered when a new influenza virus appears in the human population

An Interface Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination Under Variable-Mode Ratio in Composite Materials

A thermodynamically consistent damage model for the simulation of progressive delamination under variable mode ratio is presented. The model is formulated in the context of the Damage Mechanics. The constitutive equation that results from the definition of the free energy as a function of a damage variable is used to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A new delamination initiation criterion is developed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation proposed accounts for crack closure effets avoiding interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers aftercomplete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation. The numerical predictions given by the model are compared with experimental results

Revisió de la recerca educativa sobre les variables explicatives del rendiment acadèmic:Apunts per a l'ús del criteri de "modificabilitat pedagògica" de les variables.

La conceptualització del concepte de rendiment acadèmic ha variat al llarg de lahistòria des de definicions que es basaven en un únic criteri fins a les més actuals concepcionsmultidimensionals. Aquestes darreres apareixen com a resultat del desenvolupamentd'aquest concepte, paral.lel a l'evolució històrica d'un fenomen més ampli:el fracàs escolar

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Combine to compete: improving fiscal forecast accuracy over time

Budget forecasts have become increasingly important as a tool of fiscal management to influence expectations of bond markets and the public at large. The inherent difficulty in projecting macroeconomic variables – together with political bias – thwart the accuracy of budget forecasts. We improve accuracy by combining the forecasts of both private and public agencies for Italy over the period 1993-2012. A weighted combined forecast of the deficit/ ratio is superior to any single forecast. Deficits are hard to predict due to shifting economic conditions and political events. We test and compare predictive accuracy over time and although a weighted combined forecast is robust to breaks, there is no significant improvement over a simple RW model.

Prevalencia de la sintomatología del Síndrome de Asperger y variables asociadas en preescolares españoles

Asperger’s Syndrome (AS) forms part of the whole spectrum of autistic disorders. Until recently it has not been studied in early ages. The aim of this study is to determine the AS’s prevalence of symptoms in general preschool, rural and urban population. In addition, the association of the development areas and symptoms of anxiety and the presence of symptoms of AS was analized. The sample ofthis study consisted in 1104 preschool children between 3-6 years old. The presence of AS’s symptoms was evaluated by a screening tool for psychiatric disorders. This tool was applied to both, preschooler’s parents and their teachers The prevalence of symptoms of AS for parents and teachers was 11.7‰ and 8.1‰, respectively. The presence of AS’s symptoms was associated with language compression delays, general and fine motor coordination, self-help skills and impairment in game activities. In addition, our results showed that the AS has a strong association with specific phobia symptoms and tics. We conclude that an early detection of AS’s symptoms is possible since we found similar prevalence described in other recent researches. Given the impairment associated with AS, its detection is highly recommended