Simultaneous Nash bargaining with consistent beliefs

We propose and analyze a new solution concept, the R solution, for three-person, transferable utility, cooperative games. In the spirit of the Nash Bargaining Solution, our concept is founded on the predicted outcomes of simultaneous, two-party negotiations that would be the alternative to the grand coalition. These possibly probabilistic predictions are based on consistent beliefs. We analyze the properties of the R solution and compare it with the Shapley value and other concepts. The R solution exists and is unique. It belongs to the bargaining set and to the core whenever the latter is not empty. In fact, when the grand coalition can simply execute one of the three possible bilateral trades, the R solution is the most egalitarian selection of the bargaining set. Finally, we discuss how the R solution changes important conclusions of several well known Industrial Organization models.

El GEPA, d’una antiga caserna militar a un equipament bibliotecari per a documents de baix ús

A començaments d’aquest segle xxi entre algunes de les biblioteques universitàries de Catalunya va sorgir una necessitat: la manca d’espai i la reconversió de les biblioteques físiques en el nou panorama educatiu. El Consorci de Biblioteques Universitàries de Catalunya (CBUC) va recollir aquesta necessitat i va engegar un projecte amb el mateix esperit cooperatiu de tots els programes i serveis del Consorci. El 2002 es va encarregar un estudi fundacional, el 2003 es va localitzar l’edifici a les antigues casernes militars de Lleida i el 2007 es van iniciar les obres del projecte de rehabilitació. El GEPA (Garantia d’Espai per a la Preservació de l’Accés) és un magatzem cooperatiu per conservar els documents de baix ús, tot garantint-ne la preservació futura i l’accessibilitat immediata quan alguna biblioteca ho necessiti.

Redefinición de indicadores y planificación del proceso de recogida de datos de la Biblioteca Virtual de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya

Pre-print.

Redefinición de indicadores y planificación del proceso de recogida de datos de la Biblioteca Virtual de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya

Pre-print.

K.O. Apel: transcendentalisme i praxi de la veritat.

L'objectiu d'aquest treball és explicar i fer la crítica de la Teoria de la Veritat recentment defensada per Apel. En primer lloc, el consens i pragmàtica de la Teoria de la Veritat d'Apel es presenta en relació amb el projecte de la Teoria Crítica de la Societat de Habermas i el problema dels fonaments en el raonament ètic. En segon lloc, la seva versió idealitzada i transcendental de la Veritat que invoca la noció de convergència en una comunitat ideal d'investigadors lliures és analitzada. Finalment, les entranyes de l'esperit wingensteinià i després de l'últim anàlisi de Putnam, s’ha intentat fer una avaluació crítica. El resultat de tot això serà una més modesta concepció de la Veritat com a tan sols una qualitat de la praxi lingüística humana, però no la seva primera pedra

Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Millora en la creació i configuració automatitzada de dispositius a la xarxa lliure Guifi.net

Guifi.net es una red libre de telecomunicaciones construida a iniciativa de los propios participantes que, mediante un acuerdo entre iguales, se interconectan para compartir servicios y recursos. Del vínculo filosófico con el software libre deriva que toda la información sea pública, mientras que del agnosticismo tecnológico, la utilización de cualquier dispositivo del mercado. Por esto existe el 'unsolclic', una secuencia de órdenes de confi guración genérica de dispositivos y verdadero factor de éxito. El objetivo del proyecto es mejorar el proceso de incorporación de nuevos dispositivos a la aplicación actual. Mediante una nueva gestión web y un sistema de plantillas estándar, los usuarios avanzados podran crear los confi guradores 'unsolclic' para los nuevos dispositivos del mercado y mantener los existentes con más facilidad y eficiencia.

Aquarius

Aquarius es una bebida isotónica, especialmente fabricada para los deportistas, perteneciente a The Coca-Cola Company. Se comercializó por primera vez en 1983 en Japón como una respuesta a la bebida deportiva llamada Pocari Sweat; pero el lanzamiento no tuvo éxito.Así pues, en 1991 Aquarius es lanzado en España y Portugal como un producto técnico asociado al deporte. su lanzamiento en el mercado español creó una pequeña revolución en el sector de las bebidas comerciales y, en 1992, Aquarius se convirtió en la bebida oficial de los Juegos Olímpicos de Barcelona. Poco a poco, el producto pasó a ser concebido no sólo com bebida isitónica, sino también como un refresco. Es por eso que en 2005 la empresa decide renovar la imagen de la marca, los envases del producto y lanzar otros sabores para que se adecuen a las nuevas necesidades del consumidor.Aquarius es la marca estrella de "Coca-Cola España", ninguna otra le hace sombra en cuanto a crecimiento. Cuenta con un 75% de cuota de mercado y supone el 70% de las ventas del producto a nivel internacional. Con este éxito, la compañía queríaanzar el producto en otros países europeos como Bélgica y Holanda, aunque sin tanto éxito como en España.Sus principales competidoras a nivel de bebidas isotónicas en España son las marcas blancas con un 27% de cuota de mercado u otras con menos peso como Powerade con un 3% de cuota (también de "The Coca-Cola Company").En el mercado de las "softs drinks" Aquarius sufrió un ascenso increible con su campaña publicitaria: "La Era Aquarius", consiguiendo en la actualidad representar el 30% de las ventas de Coca-Cola en este sector. Sus principales competidores son el Grupo Danone o Pepsi que tienen también altas cuotas de mercado

The evolution of conventions under incomplete information

We formulate an evolutionary learning process in the spirit ofYoung (1993a) for games of incomplete information. The process involves trembles. For many games, if the amount of trembling is small, play will be in accordance with the games' (semi-strict) Bayesian equilibria most of the time. This supports the notion of Bayesian equilibrium. Further, often play will most of the time be in accordance with exactly one Bayesian equilibrium. This gives a selection among the Bayesian equilibria. For two specific games of economic interest wecharacterize this selection. The first is an extension to incomplete information of the prototype strategic conflict known as Chicken. The second is an incomplete information bilateral monopoly, which is also an extension to incompleteinformation of Nash's demand game, or a simple version ofthe so-called sealed bid double auction. For both gamesselection by evolutionary learning is in favor of Bayesianequilibria where some types of players fail to coordinate, such that the outcome is inefficient.

Optimal taxation without state-contingent debt

To recover a version of Barro's (1979) `random walk'tax smoothing outcome, we modify Lucas and Stokey's (1983) economyto permit only risk--free debt. This imparts near unit root like behaviorto government debt, independently of the government expenditureprocess, a realistic outcome in the spirit of Barro's. We showhow the risk--free--debt--only economy confronts the Ramsey plannerwith additional constraints on equilibrium allocations thattake the form of a sequence of measurability conditions.We solve the Ramsey problem by formulating it in terms of a Lagrangian,and applying a Parameterized Expectations Algorithm tothe associated first--order conditions. The first--order conditions andnumerical impulse response functions partially affirmBarro's random walk outcome. Though the behaviors oftax rates, government surpluses, and government debts differ, allocationsare very close for computed Ramsey policies across incomplete and completemarkets economies.

The overhang hangover

We revisit the debt overhang question. We first use non-parametric techniques to isolate a panel of countries on the downward sloping section of a debt Laffer curve. In particular, overhang countries are ones where a threshold level of debt is reached in sample, beyond which (initial) debt ends up lowering (subsequent)growth. On average, significantly negative coefficients appear when debt face value reaches 60 percent of GDP or 200 percent of exports, and when its present value reaches 40 percent of GDP or 140 percent of exports. Second, we depart from reduced form growth regressions and perform direct tests of the theory on the thus selected sample of overhang countries. In the spirit of event studies, we ask whether, as overhang level of debt is reached: (i)investment falls precipitously as it should when it becomes optimal to default, (ii) economic policy deteriorates observably, as it should when debt contracts become unable to elicit effort on the part of the debtor, and (iii) the terms of borrowing worsen noticeably, as they should when it becomes optimal for creditors to pre-empt default and exact punitive interest rates. We find a systematic response of investment, particularly when property rights are weakly enforced, some worsening of the policy environment, and a fall in interest rates. This easing of borrowing conditions happens because lending by the private sector virtually disappears in overhang situations, and multilateral agencies step in with concessional rates. Thus, while debt relief is likely to improve economic policy (and especially investment) in overhang countries, it is doubtful that it would ease their terms of borrowing, or the burden of debt.

Beyond the Toledo agreement : the intergenerational impact of the spanish pension reform

The paper examines the intergenerational impact of the Spanish public pension system after the 1997 Pension Reform Act. Working within a Generational Accounting framework, we find that maintaining the new legal setting could leave future generations with liabilities as high as 176 percent of base year GDP. As the recent reform measures have been insufficient to achieve the sustainability of the current pension system, we also analyse the impact of alternative reform strategies. Within the current pay-as-you-go setting, a further improvement to tax-benefit linkage in line with the original spirit of the Toledo Agreement is shown to yield and intergenerationally more balanced outcome,than an increase in the retirement age or an expansion of public subsidies financed through indirect taxes. Finally, we examine the generational impact of a move toward a partially funded pension system which might restore theintergenerational balance

Agglomeration and labour productivity in Spanish industry: a long-term analysis

This paper analyzes the relationship between spatial density of economic activity and interregional differences in the productivity of industrial labour in Spain during the period 1860-1999. In the spirit of Ciccone and Hall (1996) and Ciccone (2002), we analyze the evolution of this relationship over the long term in Spain. Using data on the period 1860-1999 we show the existence of an agglomeration effect linking the density of economic activity with labour productivity in the industry. This effect was present since the beginning of the industrialization process in the middle of the 19th century but has been decreasing over time. The estimated elasticity of labour productivity with respect to employment density was close to 8% in the subperiod 1860-1900, reduces to a value of around 7% in the subperiod 1914-1930, to 4% in the subperiod 1965-1979 and becomes insignificant in the final subperiod 1985-1999. At the end of the period analyzed there is no evidence of the existence of net agglomeration effects in the industry. This result could be explained by an important increase in the congestion effects in large industrial metropolitan areas that would have compensated the centripetal or agglomeration forces at work. Furthermore, this result is also consistent with the evidence of a dispersion of industrial activity in Spain during the last decades.

Semiclassical image potential at a solid surface

A surface dielectric function of a semi-infinite plane-bounded metal is defined in the spirit of the plasmon-pole dielectric function of the bulk. It is modeled in such a way that the surface-plasmon dispersion relation is recovered for small momentum transfer. This function is employed to compute the image potential at all distances outside the surface. Interaction with bulk modes is neglected for simplicity and clarity. The interaction of a massive point charge with a metal surface is also considered in the context of a boson model for surface-plasmon excitation. We present a new definition of the image potential for this case.

Brane-world creation and black holes

An inflating brane world can be created from ``nothing'' together with its anti-de Sitter (AdS) bulk. The resulting space-time has compact spatial sections bounded by the brane. During inflation, the continuum of KK modes is separated from the massless zero mode by the gap m=(3/2)H, where H is the Hubble rate. We consider the analogue of the Nariai solution and argue that it describes the pair production of ``black cigars'' attached to the inflating brane. In the case when the size of the instantons is much larger than the AdS radius, the 5-dimensional action agrees with the 4-dimensional one. Hence, the 5D and 4D gravitational entropies are the same in this limit. We also consider thermal instantons with an AdS black hole in the bulk. These may be interpreted as describing the creation of a hot universe from nothing or the production of AdS black holes in the vicinity of a pre-existing inflating brane world. The Lorentzian evolution of the brane world after creation is briefly discussed. An additional ``integration constant'' in the Friedmann equation-accompanying a term which dilutes like radiation-describes the tidal force in the fifth direction and arises from the mass of a spherical object inside the bulk. In general, this could be a 5-dimensional black hole or a ``parallel'' brane world of negative tension concentrical with our brane-world. In the case of thermal solutions, and in the spirit of the AdS/CFT correspondence, one may attribute the additional term to thermal radiation in the boundary theory. Then, for temperatures well below the AdS scale, the entropy of this radiation agrees with the entropy of the black hole in the AdS bulk.