Exact tests for correlation and for the slope in simple linear regressions without making assumptions

We present an exact test for whether two random variables that have known bounds on their support are negatively correlated. The alternative hypothesis is that they are not negatively correlated. No assumptions are made on the underlying distributions. We show by example that the Spearman rank correlation test as the competing exact test of correlation in nonparametric settings rests on an additional assumption on the data generating process without which it is not valid as a test for correlation.We then show how to test for the significance of the slope in a linear regression analysis that invovles a single independent variable and where outcomes of the dependent variable belong to a known bounded set.

A test of the predictive validity of non-linear QALY models using time trade-off utilities

This paper presents a test of the predictive validity of various classes ofQALY models (i.e., linear, power and exponential models). We first estimatedTTO utilities for 43 EQ-5D chronic health states and next these states wereembedded in health profiles. The chronic TTO utilities were then used topredict the responses to TTO questions with health profiles. We find that thepower QALY model clearly outperforms linear and exponential QALY models.Optimal power coefficient is 0.65. Our results suggest that TTO-based QALYcalculations may be biased. This bias can be avoided using a power QALY model.

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate a dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for humancapital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.

Implementing TURF analysis through binary linear programming

This paper introduces the approach of using Total Unduplicated Reach and Frequency analysis (TURF) to design a product line through a binary linear programming model. This improves the efficiency of the search for the solution to the problem compared to the algorithms that have been used to date. The results obtained through our exact algorithm are presented, and this method shows to be extremely efficient both in obtaining optimal solutions and in computing time for very large instances of the problem at hand. Furthermore, the proposed technique enables the model to be improved in order to overcome the main drawbacks presented by TURF analysis in practice.

The poor stay poor: Non-convergence across countries and regions

We study the issue of income convergence across countries and regions witha Bayesian estimator which allows us to use information in an efficient andflexible way. We argue that the very slow convergence rates to a commonlevel of per-capita income found, e.g., by Barro and Xavier Sala-i-Martin,is due to a 'fixed effect bias' that their cross-sectional analysisintroduces in the results. Our approach permits the estimation of differentconvergence rates to different steady states for each cross sectional unit.When this diversity is allowed, we find that convergence of each unit to(its own) steady state income level is much faster than previously estimatedbut that cross sectional differences persist: inequalities will only bereduced by a small amount by the passage of time. The cross countrydistribution of the steady state is largely explained by the cross countrydistribution of initial conditions.

Tracking the invisible hand: Convergence of double auctions to competitive equilibrium

Economics is the science of want and scarcity. We show that want andscarcity, operating within a simple exchange institution (double auction),are sufficient for an economy consisting of multiple inter--related marketsto attain competitive equilibrium (CE). We generalize Gode and Sunder's(1993a, 1993b) single--market finding to multi--market economies, andexplore the role of the scarcity constraint in convergence of economies to CE.When the scarcity constraint is relaxed by allowing arbitrageurs in multiple markets to enter speculative trades, prices still converge to CE,but allocative efficiency of the economy drops. \\Optimization by individual agents, often used to derive competitive equilibria,are unnecessary for an actual economy to approximately attain such equilibria.From the failure of humans to optimize in complex tasks, one need not concludethat the equilibria derived from the competitive model are descriptivelyirrelevant. We show that even in complex economic systems, such equilibriacan be attained under a range of surprisingly weak assumptions about agentbehavior.

Restless bandits, linear programming relaxations and a primal-dual index heuristic

We develop a mathematical programming approach for the classicalPSPACE - hard restless bandit problem in stochastic optimization.We introduce a hierarchy of n (where n is the number of bandits)increasingly stronger linear programming relaxations, the lastof which is exact and corresponds to the (exponential size)formulation of the problem as a Markov decision chain, while theother relaxations provide bounds and are efficiently computed. Wealso propose a priority-index heuristic scheduling policy fromthe solution to the first-order relaxation, where the indices aredefined in terms of optimal dual variables. In this way wepropose a policy and a suboptimality guarantee. We report resultsof computational experiments that suggest that the proposedheuristic policy is nearly optimal. Moreover, the second-orderrelaxation is found to provide strong bounds on the optimalvalue.

A note on the convergence to competitive equilibria in economies with moral hazard

We examine the conditions under which competitive equilibria can beobtained as the limit, when the number of strategic traders getslarge, of Nash equilibria in economies with asymmetric informationon agents' effort and possibly imperfect observability of agents'trades. Convergence always occur when either effort is publiclyobserved (no matter what is the information available tointermediaries on agents' trades); or effort is private informationbut agents' trades are perfectly observed; or no information at allis available on agents' trades. On the other hand, when eachintermediary can observe its trades with an agent, but not theagent's trades with other intermediaries, the (Nash) equilibriawith strategic intermediaries do not converge to any of thecompetitive equilibria, for an open set of economies. The source ofthe difficulties for convergence is the combination of asymmetricinformation and the restrictions on the observability of tradeswhich prevent the formation of exclusive contractual relationshipsand generate barriers to entry in the markets for contracts.

Convergence in panel data: Evidence from the skipping estimation

This paper demonstrates that, unlike what the conventional wisdom says, measurement error biases in panel data estimation of convergence using OLS with fixed effects are huge, not trivial. It does so by way of the "skipping estimation"': taking data from every m years of the sample (where m is an integer greater than or equal to 2), as opposed to every single year. It is shown that the estimated speed of convergence from the OLS with fixed effects is biased upwards by as much as 7 to 15%.

North-South convergence and the allocation of CO2 emissions

We postulate a two-region world, comprised of North (calibrated after the US) and South(calibrated after China). Our optimization results show the compatibility of the following threedesiderata:(1) Global CO2 emissions follow a conservative path that leads to the stabilizationof concentrations at 450 ppm.(2) North and South converge to a path of sustained growth at 1% per year (28.2%per generation) in 2075.(3) During the transition to the steady state, North also grows at 1% per year whileSouth s rates of growth are markedly higher.The transition paths require a drastic reduction of the share of emissions allocated to North,large investments in knowledge, both in North and South, as well as very large investments ineducation in South. Surprisingly, in order to sustain North s utility growth rate, some output mustbe transferred from South to North during the transition.Although undoubtedly subject to many caveats, our results support a degree of optimism byproviding prima facie evidence of the possibility of tackling climate change in a way that is fairboth across generations and across regions while allowing for positive rates of humandevelopment.

On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Patterns of convergence and divergence in the euro area

We study the extent of macroeconomic convergence/divergence among euro area countries. Our analysis focuses on four variables (unemployment, inflation, relative prices and the current account), and seeks to uncover the role played by monetary union as a convergence factor by using non-euro developed economies and the pre-EMU period as control samples.

Super-resolution of remotely sensed images with variable-pixel linear reconstruction

This paper describes the development and applications of a super-resolution method, known as Super-Resolution Variable-Pixel Linear Reconstruction. The algorithm works combining different lower resolution images in order to obtain, as a result, a higher resolution image. We show that it can make significant spatial resolution improvements to satellite images of the Earth¿s surface allowing recognition of objects with size approaching the limiting spatial resolution of the lower resolution images. The algorithm is based on the Variable-Pixel Linear Reconstruction algorithm developed by Fruchter and Hook, a well-known method in astronomy but never used for Earth remote sensing purposes. The algorithm preserves photometry, can weight input images according to the statistical significance of each pixel, and removes the effect of geometric distortion on both image shape and photometry. In this paper, we describe its development for remote sensing purposes, show the usefulness of the algorithm working with images as different to the astronomical images as the remote sensing ones, and show applications to: 1) a set of simulated multispectral images obtained from a real Quickbird image; and 2) a set of multispectral real Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images. These examples show that the algorithm provides a substantial improvement in limiting spatial resolution for both simulated and real data sets without significantly altering the multispectral content of the input low-resolution images, without amplifying the noise, and with very few artifacts.

The EU strategy of policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade

The objective of this paper is to ascertain whether the EU is seeking policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade by means of EU regulations. For each trade- related topic, we carried out a content analysis of the available official documents to identify the model of relations that has been established between the EU and four neighbouring countries (Morocco, Algeria, Ukraine and Georgia). The findings indicate that Europeanization is the EU strategy in most cases. However, adaptation to European regulations is only a long-term aim. When international regulations exist in a specific area, the EU usually demands the internationalization of a country¿s regulations as a first step. When there are no international regulations, the convergence process is established on the basis of bilaterally developed norms. EU strategy also varies depending on the country. Its relations with Algeria are the most particular. We conclude that the EU is promoting policy convergence with its neighbours in the area of trade mainly on the basis of international and bilaterally-developed regulations.

Regional economic dynamics and convergence in the european union

Deepening in the European Union (EU) integration process has enhanced the question of economic disparities at a regional level. Theconvergence process observed until the late seventies was exhausted onwards incoincidence with important changes in the economic activity. The paper showshow these factors would have provoked a regional differenciated response that,despite being important, would have not strengthened the decrease in regionalinequalities. We use an alternative and (in our opinion) richer approach to thetraditional convergence analysis, where the evolution of the whole regionaldistribution is what matters and not that of a representative economy. Moreover,when analysing inequalities among regional economies, the geographical spaceacquire an outstanding role. Hence, we apply spatial association tests and relatethem to the convergence analysis