121 resultados para EXPECTATIONS


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This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible forthe Giffen goods anomaly affecting competitive traders demands in multi-asset, noisy rational expectations equilibrium models. The role thatinformation plays in traders strategies also matters. In a market withrisk averse, uninformed traders, informed agents havea dual motive for trading: speculation and market making. Whilespeculation entails using prices to assess the effect of private signalerror terms, market making requires employing them to disentangle noisetraders effects in traders aggregate orders. In a correlated environment,this complicates a trader s signal-extraction problem and maygenerate upward-sloping demand curves. Assuming either (i) that competitive,risk neutral market makers price the assets, or that (ii) the risktolerance coefficient of uninformed traders grows without bound, removesthe market making component from informed traders demands, rendering themwell behaved in prices.

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To recover a version of Barro's (1979) `random walk'tax smoothing outcome, we modify Lucas and Stokey's (1983) economyto permit only risk--free debt. This imparts near unit root like behaviorto government debt, independently of the government expenditureprocess, a realistic outcome in the spirit of Barro's. We showhow the risk--free--debt--only economy confronts the Ramsey plannerwith additional constraints on equilibrium allocations thattake the form of a sequence of measurability conditions.We solve the Ramsey problem by formulating it in terms of a Lagrangian,and applying a Parameterized Expectations Algorithm tothe associated first--order conditions. The first--order conditions andnumerical impulse response functions partially affirmBarro's random walk outcome. Though the behaviors oftax rates, government surpluses, and government debts differ, allocationsare very close for computed Ramsey policies across incomplete and completemarkets economies.

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We present a model of timing of seasonal sales where stores chooseseveral designs at the beginning of the season without knowingwich one, if any, will be fashionable. Fashionable designs have achance to fetch high prices in fashion markets while non-fashionableones must be sold in a discount market. In the beginning of theseason, stores charge high prices in the hope of capturing theirfashion market. As the end of the season approaches with goods stillon the shelves, stores adjust downward their expectations that theyare carrying a fashionable design, and may have sales to capture thediscount market. Having a greater number of designs induces a storeto put one of them on sales earlier to test the market. Moreover,price competition in the discount market induces stores to startsales earlier because of a greater perceived first-mover advantage incapturing the discount market. More competition, perhaps due todecreases in the cost of product innovation, makes sales occur evenearlier. These results are consistent with the observation that thetrend toward earlier sales since mid-1970's coincides with increasingproduct varieties in fashion good markets and increasing storecompetition.

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We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

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The paper reports results on the effects of stylized stabilization policies on endogenously created fluctuations. A simple monetary model with intertemporally optimizing agents is considered. Fluctuations in output may occur due to fluctuations in labor supply which are again caused by volatile expectations which are ``self fulfilling'', i.e. correct given the model. It turns out that stabilization policies that are sufficiently countercyclical in the sense that government spending (on transfers or demand) depends sufficiently strongly negatively on GNP-increases can stabilize the economy at a monetary steadystate for an arbitrarily low degree of distortion of that steady state. Such stabilization has unambiguously good welfare effects and can be achieved without features such as positive lump sum taxation or negative income taxation as part of the stabilization policy.

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This paper studies how firms make layoff decisions in the presence of adverse shocks. In this uncertain environment, workers' expectations about their job security affect their on-the-job performance. This productivity effect on job insecurity forces firms to strike a balance between laying off redundant workers and maintaining survivors' commitment when deciding on the amount and timing of downsizing. This framework offers an explanation of conservative employment practices (such as zero or reduced layoffs) based on firms having private information about their future profits. High retention rates and wages can signal that the firm has a bright future, boosting workers' confidence. Moreover, the model provides clear predictions about when waves of downsizing will occur as opposed to one-time massive cuts.

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This paper uses a model of boundedly rational learning to accountfor the observations of recurrent hyperinflations in the lastdecade. We study a standard monetary model where the fullyrational expectations assumption is replaced by a formaldefinition of quasi-rational learning. The model under learningis able to match remarkably well some crucial stylized factsobserved during the recurrent hyperinflations experienced byseveral countries in the 80's. We argue that, despite being asmall departure from rational expectations, quasi-rationallearning does not preclude falsifiability of the model and itdoes not violate reasonable rationality requirements.

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El dia 27 de febrer de 1998 va tenir lloc a la Universitat de Girona la jornada «El PEIN cinc anys després: balanç i perspectives», organitzada per la Càtedra de Geografia i Pensament Territorial (UdG) i la Societat Catalana d’Ordenació del Territori. L’objectiu era reflexionar sobre el Pla d’Espais d’Interès Natural cinc anys després de la seva entrada en vigor i valorar fins a quin punt s’havien acomplert les expectatives que havia despertat i com podia afrontar els nous reptes en la conservació del patrimoni natural

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Food safety today is conditiones by the implementation of new Tecnologies for food preservation based on mild treatments and mínimum process, Novel foods, severe restrictions in the toxicològic profile of chemical preservatives, And the drastic limitation /prohibition of antibiotics, and as a consequence, by the New emergint pathogens or by the increase of classical food-borne pathogens. Biopreservatives appear within this context with strong expectations, because thei are safe microorganisms of ten isolated from foods, chemical compounds of natural origin -antimicrobial peptides and proteins, botanical extracts, enzymes- and sintetic compounds based on natural structures, but less toxic and more eficients, like the amtimicrobial peptides. Among the microbial biopreservatives, lactic acid bacteria have shown great possibilities in the preservation of cured meat products, ready to eat fresh fruit and vegetables, as well as to decrease microbial spoilage in food by products before processing for valorization. Our laboratory has performed an extense survey of the microbiological quality of fresh fruit and vegetables, and of ready-to-eat products, and have detect low levels, but significant of Salmonella sp., E. coli and Listeria spp., including L.monocytogenes, in retail markets and Supermarkets of Catalonia. Due to this reason, we started a project consisting of Developing application of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) obtained from these products, as biopreservatives. LAB were abundant in ready-to-eat fresh fruits and vegetables, specially in germinated seeds. From these products we obtained strains of Leuconostoc, Lactobacillus and Weissella, producing bacteriocins and with a Significant activity of control of L.monocytogenes in fresh apple and cut salad. Ather strains were efective in the inhibition of fungal rot during postharvest caused by Penicillium expansum

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La Direcció General d’Indústria té com a principal finalitat el control de les instal•lacions i de diferents activitats de l’àmbit industrial; exerceix aquesta funció mitjançant la tramitació de documentacions tècniques i la inspecció. Com tota Administració Pública, es troba en un entorn molt dinàmic, on només les empreses més competitives poden subsistir i els ciutadans tenen noves necessitats molt diferents de les de fa un temps. Ambdós, empreses i ciutadans, exigeixen serveis de qualitat a un sector públic que no té altra alternativa que caminar en la mateixa direcció. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és planificar una sèrie d’accions estratègiques que permetran la millora dels serveis oferts a fi de complir amb les expectatives de la ciutadania. S’ha realitzat una anàlisi interna i de l’entorn de l’organització, el resultat de la qual ha estat la detecció d’una sèrie de punts de millora. A continuació s’ha definit una pla operatiu de qualitat, emmarcat dins del segon Pla Estratègic de Qualitat del Govern de les Illes Balears, amb tres propostes d’actuació: la separació de funcions, la tramitació ràpida d’expedients i el pla de formació. Les propostes esmentades constitueixen les bases d’una nova unitat orgànica (Oficina de Tramitació Ràpida), el model organitzatiu de la qual queda definit en els diferents apartats del treball. Igualment, s’hi descriu el procés de posada en funcionament dels distints procediments que es vagin adaptant al nou sistema i la planificació dels treballs a dur a terme, que seguiran el cicle de la qualitat de Deming, és a dir, planificar, fer, verificar i actuar.

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Mikheyev-Smirnov-Wolfenstein (MSW) solutions of the solar neutrino problem predict a seasonal dependence of the zenith angle distribution of the event rates, due to the nonzero latitude at the Super-Kamiokande site. We calculate this seasonal dependence and compare it with the expectations in the no-oscillation case as well as just-so scenario, in the light of the latest Super-Kamiokande 708-day data. The seasonal dependence can be sizable in the large mixing angle MSW solution and would be correlated with the day-night effect. This may be used to discriminate between MSW and just-so scenarios and should be taken into account in refined fits of the data.

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This paper presents the preliminary findings of pH and colour measurements carried out on artworks on paperand on wood that had been treated with a poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) based adhesive in the 1980s. In both cases, areas treated with PVAC proved to be less acidic than untreated areas. Contrary to expectations, the conservation treatments have not, as yet, increased acidity levels in the objects under study. Colour measurements of the works on paper showed that those that had been backed with a cotton fabric using a mixture of methylcellulose and PVAC were less yellow than those from the same print run that had not been backed. This finding suggests that the backing somehow prevented the natural degradation of the support. In view of these preliminary results, further research is clearly needed. This study forms part of a broader ongoing project to assess the role of PVAC in the conservation of a range of cultural assets.

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This paper presents the preliminary findings of pH and colour measurements carried out on artworks on paperand on wood that had been treated with a poly(vinyl acetate) (PVAC) based adhesive in the 1980s. In both cases, areas treated with PVAC proved to be less acidic than untreated areas. Contrary to expectations, the conservation treatments have not, as yet, increased acidity levels in the objects under study. Colour measurements of the works on paper showed that those that had been backed with a cotton fabric using a mixture of methylcellulose and PVAC were less yellow than those from the same print run that had not been backed. This finding suggests that the backing somehow prevented the natural degradation of the support. In view of these preliminary results, further research is clearly needed. This study forms part of a broader ongoing project to assess the role of PVAC in the conservation of a range of cultural assets.

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The communication presents the results of an investigation of exploratory and comparative character which objective is to analyze the influence of the actual labour situation into the demand of official master studies in the field of education. The study has been developed in two countries with a very different labour situation: Brasil, country of economic expansion and Spain, in recession due to the actual economic crisis. In that sense, the study provides data for deep thinking about the influence of the constriction or expansion of employment on the behaviour and demand of the students who access master studies and on how the previous formative and labour trajectory affects their expectations, demands and future projects. The working methodology is qualitative and the strategy for data collection the “focus group”. As a first approach, two groups of discussion have been formed with master students. A first one with students from Universidad de Barcelona- España and another one with members of Universidade do Vale do Itajaí- Brasil. Then, we constituted a mixed group of discussion in order to analyze differences and similarities.

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This article outlines the basis of the technique and shows some examples of applications in order to exhibit the expectations of this technique invaried scientific fields.