Input diffusion and the evolution of production networks

What determines which inputs are initially considered and eventually adopted in the productionof new or improved goods? Why are some inputs much more prominent than others? We modelthe evolution of input linkages as a process where new producers first search for potentially usefulinputs and then decide which ones to adopt. A new product initially draws a set of 'essentialsuppliers'. The search stage is then confined to the network neighborhood of the latter, i.e., to theinputs used by the essential suppliers. The adoption decision is driven by a tradeoff between thebenefits accruing from input variety and the costs of input adoption. This has important implicationsfor the number of forward linkages that a product (input variety) develops over time. Inputdiffusion is fostered by network centrality ? an input that is initially represented in many networkneighborhoods is subsequently more likely to be adopted. This mechanism also delivers a powerlaw distribution of forward linkages. Our predictions continue to hold when varieties are aggregatedinto sectors. We can thus test them, using detailed sectoral US input-output tables. We showthat initial network proximity of a sector in 1967 significantly increases the likelihood of adoptionthroughout the subsequent four decades. The same is true for rapid productivity growth in aninput-producing sector. Our empirical results highlight two conditions for new products to becomecentral nodes: initial network proximity to prospective adopters, and technological progress thatreduces their relative price. Semiconductors met both conditions.

Effect of nitrogen and phosphorus supply on growth, chlorophyll content and tissue composition of the macroalga Chaetomorpha linum (O.F. Mull), Kutz, in a Mediterranean Coastal Lagoon

The effect of dissolved nutrients on growth, nutrient content and uptake rates of Chaetomorpha linum in a Mediterranean coastal lagoon (Tancada, Ebro delta, NE Spain) was studied in laboratory experiments. Water was enriched with distinct forms of nitrogen, such as nitrate or ammonium and phosphorus. Enrichment with N, P or with both nutrients resulted in a significant increase in the tissue content of these nutrients. N-enrichment was followed by an increase in chlorophyll content after 4 days of treatment, although the difference was only significant when nitrate was added without P. P-enrichment had no significant effect on chlorophyll content. In all the treatments an increase in biomass was obseved after 10 days. This increase was higher in the N+P treatments. In all the treatments the uptake rate was significantly higher when nutrients were added than in control jars. The uptake rate of N, as ammonium, and P were significantly higher when they were added alone while that of N as nitrate was higher in the N+P treatment. In the P-enriched cultures, the final P-content of macroalgal tissues was ten-fold that of the initial tissue concentrations, thereby indicating luxury P-uptake. Moreover, at the end of the incubation the N:P ratio increased to 80, showing that P rather than N was the limiting factor for C. linum in the Tancada lagoon. The relatively high availability of N is related to the N inputs from rice fields that surround the lagoon and to P binding in sediments.

A priori parameterisation of the CERES soil-crop models and tests against several European data sets

Mechanistic soil-crop models have become indispensable tools to investigate the effect of management practices on the productivity or environmental impacts of arable crops. Ideally these models may claim to be universally applicable because they simulate the major processes governing the fate of inputs such as fertiliser nitrogen or pesticides. However, because they deal with complex systems and uncertain phenomena, site-specific calibration is usually a prerequisite to ensure their predictions are realistic. This statement implies that some experimental knowledge on the system to be simulated should be available prior to any modelling attempt, and raises a tremendous limitation to practical applications of models. Because the demand for more general simulation results is high, modellers have nevertheless taken the bold step of extrapolating a model tested within a limited sample of real conditions to a much larger domain. While methodological questions are often disregarded in this extrapolation process, they are specifically addressed in this paper, and in particular the issue of models a priori parameterisation. We thus implemented and tested a standard procedure to parameterize the soil components of a modified version of the CERES models. The procedure converts routinely-available soil properties into functional characteristics by means of pedo-transfer functions. The resulting predictions of soil water and nitrogen dynamics, as well as crop biomass, nitrogen content and leaf area index were compared to observations from trials conducted in five locations across Europe (southern Italy, northern Spain, northern France and northern Germany). In three cases, the model’s performance was judged acceptable when compared to experimental errors on the measurements, based on a test of the model’s root mean squared error (RMSE). Significant deviations between observations and model outputs were however noted in all sites, and could be ascribed to various model routines. In decreasing importance, these were: water balance, the turnover of soil organic matter, and crop N uptake. A better match to field observations could therefore be achieved by visually adjusting related parameters, such as field-capacity water content or the size of soil microbial biomass. As a result, model predictions fell within the measurement errors in all sites for most variables, and the model’s RMSE was within the range of published values for similar tests. We conclude that the proposed a priori method yields acceptable simulations with only a 50% probability, a figure which may be greatly increased through a posteriori calibration. Modellers should thus exercise caution when extrapolating their models to a large sample of pedo-climatic conditions for which they have only limited information.

Competing risks to breast cancer mortality in Catalonia

Background: Breast cancer mortality has experienced important changes over the last century. Breast cancer occurs in the presence of other competing risks which can influence breast cancer incidence and mortality trends. The aim of the present work is: 1) to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths among mortality from all causes in Catalonia (Spain), by age and birth cohort and 2) to estimate the risk of death from other causes than breast cancer, one of the inputs needed to model breast cancer mortality reduction due to screening or therapeutic interventions. Methods: The multi-decrement life table methodology was used. First, all-cause mortality probabilities were obtained by age and cohort. Then mortality probability for breast cancer was subtracted from the all-cause mortality probabilities to obtain cohort life tables for causes other than breast cancer. These life tables, on one hand, provide an estimate of the risk of dying from competing risks, and on the other hand, permit to assess the impact of breast cancer deaths on all-cause mortality using the ratio of the probability of death for causes other than breast cancer by the all-cause probability of death. Results: There was an increasing impact of breast cancer on mortality in the first part of the 20th century, with a peak for cohorts born in 1945–54 in the 40–49 age groups (for which approximately 24% of mortality was due to breast cancer). Even though for cohorts born after 1955 there was only information for women under 50, it is also important to note that the impact of breast cancer on all-cause mortality decreased for those cohorts. Conclusion: We have quantified the effect of removing breast cancer mortality in different age groups and birth cohorts. Our results are consistent with US findings. We also have obtained an estimate of the risk of dying from competing-causes mortality, which will be used in the assessment of the effect of mammography screening on breast cancer mortality in Catalonia.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

Cultivation of black truffle to promote reforestation and land-use stability

Cultivation of black truffle, Tuber melanosporum Vitt., has become an important agricultural alternative in rural Mediterranean regions due to its success in relatively harsh conditions, its high market value and diminishing production in natural areas. In addition, truffle cultivation requires relatively low agricultural inputs, promotes reforestation and economic restoration of rural lands and land-use stability. However, there remain major issues regarding the management practices to ensure successful black truffle production. We therefore conducted an experiment to evaluate 3 levels of irrigation based on monthly water deficit and the effects of currently applied weed control systems and fertilization. Treatment effects were evaluated by examining the mycorrhizal status of out-planted 1-yr-old Quercus ilex L. seedlings and seedling growth parameters after 18 months in 3 distinct experimental truffle plantations located in the foothills of the Spanish Pyrenees. We found that replacing one-half of the water deficit of the driest month (moderate irrigation) promoted the proliferation of T. melanosporum mycorrhizae, while high irrigation reduced fine root production and truffle mycorrhizae. Glyphosate weed control improved seedling survival by up to 16% over control seedlings without jeopardizing truffle mycorrhizae in the first year. Fertilization did not improve seedling growth or influence its mycorrhizal status. We describe the persistent relationship between this ectomycorrhizal fungus and Q. ilex by quantifying old and new mycorrhizae and we discuss the ecological implications of the symbiosis.

Balances energéticos y usos del suelo en la agricultura catalana: una comparación entre mediados del siglo XIX y finales del siglo XX

El presente trabajo analiza y compara, desde la perspectiva analítica del metabolismo social, los usos del suelo y los balances energéticos derivados de estos usos de los sistemas agrarios de cinco municipios de la comarca barcelonesa del Vallès, en dos momentos históricos que ilustran las características y magnitud de las transformaciones que se han producido en los sistemas agrarios catalanes en los últimos 150 años. El primer corte corresponde a mediados del siglo XIX, representativo del funcionamiento de una agricultura orgánica avanzada; el segundo, a finales del siglo XX, representa un sistema agrario industrializado donde la energía fósil y otros inputs externos al sistema tienen una presencia determinante. A partir de los amillaramientos, los censos ganaderos y las cartillas evaluatorias disponibles para los municipios estudiados, y los datos actuales de los censos agrarios, forestales y de rendimientos y aprovechamientos de los distintos productos, se han construido los balances energéticos de los dos periodos analizados. A partir de ellos hemos constatado que en los 150 años transcurridos se ha producido una espectacular pérdida de eficiencia energética y de sostenibilidad de los sistemas agrarios, a pesar de los grandes incrementos de la productividad por hectárea de los diversos cultivos y de la producción ganadería, que se atribuye totalmente al paso de una agricultura orgánica avanzada a unos sistemas agrarios con elevado consumo de combustibles fósiles en forma de carburantes, abonos de síntesis y fitosanitarios y,especialmente, al peso descomunal de la actividad ganadera, desarrollada completamente al margen del territorio.

Presència i distribució espacial de concentracions anormals d'ió nitrat a les aigües subterrànies dels aqüífers del Baix Fluvià (Alt Empordà)

Presentem una caracterització de la distribució espacial de la contaminació per nitrats en els aqüífers de la plana del baix Fluvià. En concret, els valors de concentració més elevats s’han observat a l’aqüífer superficial, on sobrepassen, amb escreix, els límits de potabilitat aconsellats pel RD 1138/1990. L’àrea més afectada ocupa part dels termes municipals de Vilamacolum i Torroella de Fluvià, en els quals hi predominen concentracions que oscil·len entre 50 i 200 mg × L–1. Els focus de contaminació són de tipus puntual i difús. Documentada la presència anormal de nitrats en aquest aqüífer, es planteja el correcte maneig agrícola, en vistes a una doble finalitat: d’una banda, contribuir a la planificació d’unes bones pràctiques agrícoles tenint en compte la relació entre volums de reg i aportacions de nitrogen; d’altra banda, preveure una progressiva recuperació de la qualitat de l’aqüífer, a partir de l’ús de tecnologies que integrin la ubicació d’unes zones favorables on es pugui maximitzar l’extracció del recurs contaminat, i la ubicació d’uns sòls aptes per a l’aplicació d’aquest recurs, amb uns criteris agronòmics coherents.

Una interpretación de los cambios de uso del suelo desde el punto de vista del metabolismo social agrario. La comarca catalana del Vallès, 1853-2004

El paisaje puede ser visto como la expresión territorial del metabolismo que cualquier sociedad mantiene con los sistemas naturales que la sustentan. Uno de los caminos para comprender cómo y por qué la intervención humana cambia la configuración del territorio consiste en analizar los flujos energéticos del intercambio metabólico de la economía con su entorno ambiental, y en identificar los impactos ecológicos que se imprimen en él. Este trabajo busca verificar, mediante la contabilidad del metabolismo social, y el empleo diacrónico de diversos índices desarrollados por la ecología del paisaje, que el enorme incremento de energía externa empleada por los sistemas agrarios tras la “revolución verde”, y la drástica reducción de su eficiencia, están estrechamente relacionados con los cambios de uso del suelo que han degradado considerablemente los tradicionales paisajes agrarios en mosaico del Mediterráneo. El recurso a flujos biofísicos externos, y el abandono del manejo integrado del territorio, han comportado una pérdida de la estructura funcional de la matriz territorial y de su conectividad ecológica. Los resultados obtenidos en cinco municipios de la comarca catalana del Vallès corroboran la estrecha relación existente durante los últimos 150 años entre la eficiencia energética y territorial, y el estado ecológico del paisaje.

Coal deposition in carbonate rich shallow Lacustrine systems: The Calaf and Mequinenza sequences (Oligocene, eastern Ebro Basin, NE Spain)

Two main coal-bearing sequences developed during the Oligocene in the Tertiary Ebro Basin, the Calaf (early Oligocene) and Mequinenza (late Oligocene) coal basins. Coal deposition took place in shallow marsh-swamp-lake complexes which sometimes became closed and evolved under warm climatic conditions with fluctuating humidity. These shallow lacustrine systems are closely interrelated with the terminal parts of the distributive fluvial systems which spread from the tectonically active Ebro basin margins. Laterally extensive lignite-bearing sequences, including rather thin, lenticular autochthonous and/or hypautochthonous coal seams with high ash and sulphur contents, characterized coal deposition in the shallow lacustrine systems. Coal seam geometry, which makes them nearly subeconomic, resulted from the tectonic instability during basin margin evolution and the sometimes closed, arid conditions under which the lacustrine systems evolved. High ash and sulphur contents resulted from the inadequate isolation of peat forming environments from clastic influx and from the very low acidity and sometimes high sulphate contents of the lacustrine waters. Coal exploration in shallow lacustrine sequences similar to those described here must take into account that the spread of coal-forming environments and maxima of coal deposition are usually coincident with lake expansions and retraction or shifting of the terminal fluvial zones interrelated with the lacustrine areas.

Benthos of Spanish lakes and reservoirs

A summary of the results from the study of benthos of lakes and reservoirs in Spain is provided, with a list of the species found to date. Spanish natural lakes are smaller than European lakes; the largest is Lake Sanabria, of glacial origin, which is 3 Km long and half a kilorneter wide. Many are very small and situated in the mountains; more than 200 hundred have been recorded in Spain, but only in Lake Sanabria and Lake Banyoles have the benthos been studied. Lake Sanabria is a cold oligotrophic, monomictic lake with oxygen always present in the deepest zones. Its fauna is similar to that of other central European lakes, with Mici.opsectra c.orztractu (a chironomid) as the dominan1 species. Lake Banyoles is a karstic, monomictic and multibasin lake; despite the low primary productivity, due to the abundante of sulphate in the water, the allochthonous inflow of organic matter and the inflow of water from bottom springs, the profunda1 environinent is very stressing for benthic fauna. Very low oxygen concentrations and high sulphide content in the water and sediments dueto meromixis mean that only the larva of the dipteran Chaohoi.lcs flai7icans was present in one of the 5 basins of the lake. In other basins, when oxygen is available (no meromixis), the fauna is similar to that of tlie inineralized lakes of the Aegean region and some lakes in central Italia. On the other hand, preliminary data from the Pyrenean lakes and from Sierra Nevada ponds reveal no differences with northern cold lakes. Tlie largest lakes in Spain are the reservoirs. There are nearly 1000 and data are available on 100 of them, including the kargest. In addition to oxygen and sulphide content in the bottom waters, water level fluctuation and high sedimentation rates are disturbance factors that prevented the organization of the community. Allochthonous inputs of organic matter are also an important factor both in the reservoirs and also in the small, oligotrophic lakes like Banyoles and Sanabria. As a result the meiofaunal loop is very important in many of the Spanish water bodies . For this reason the natural lakes and reservoirs of Spain are dominated by Oligochaeta, small crustaceans and the microcarnivore chironomids (such as Procladi~ls, Cladopelma and Mi(,rnc.hil-onnmus) that feed on these meoifaunal elements. The phytophagous chironomids, like Chironomus, are only abundan1 in the shallow areas of mesotrophic and eutrophic reservoirs. This situation makes it difficult to apply the typological system of SAETHER which predicts with some confidence only the benthic communities of Spanish natural lakes above 1500 m in the Pyrenees or the ponds above 2000 m in Sierra Nevada mountains. Higher temperatures (which originate a longer stratification period), the presence of sulphate in the waters of the eastern part of Spain and high inputs of sediments and allochthonous organic matter seem to be the factors that originated the differences between the benthic profunda1 faunas of Spanish lakes and reservoirs and those of the temperate lakes of north and central Europe.

Climate change impacts on lakes: an integrated ecological perspective based on a multi-faceted approach, with special focus on shallow lakes

Freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity are presently seriously threatened by global development and population growth, leading to increases in nutrient inputs and intensification of eutrophication-induced problems in receiving fresh waters, particularly in lakes. Climate change constitutes another threat exacerbating the symptoms of eutrophication and species migration and loss. Unequivocal evidence of climate change impacts is still highly fragmented despite the intensive research, in part due to the variety and uncertainty of climate models and underlying emission scenarios but also due to the different approaches applied to study its effects. We first describe the strengths and weaknesses of the multi-faceted approaches that are presently available for elucidating the effects of climate change in lakes, including space-for-time substitution, time series, experiments, palaeoecology and modelling. Reviewing combined results from studies based on the various approaches, we describe the likely effects of climate changes on biological communities, trophic dynamics and the ecological state of lakes. We further discuss potential mitigation and adaptation measures to counteract the effects of climate change on lakes and, finally, we highlight some of the future challenges that we face to improve our capacity for successful prediction.

Reducción del vector de características de reconocimiento facial

In this present work, we are proposing a characteristics reduction system for a facial biometric identification system, using transformed domains such as discrete cosine transformed (DCT) and discrete wavelets transformed (DWT) as parameterization; and Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Neural Network (NN) as classifiers. The size reduction has been done with Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and with Independent Component Analysis (ICA). This system presents a similar success results for both DWT-SVM system and DWT-PCA-SVM system, about 98%. The computational load is improved on training mode due to the decreasing of input’s size and less complexity of the classifier.

Influencia de la tectónica en la sedimentación continental de la cuenca del Vallés-Penedés (Prov.Barcelona, España) durante el Mioceno inferior.

A very important alluvial fan clastic sedimentation, took place in the NNESSW trending Valles-Penedes graben (northeastem Spain) during Miocene time. Shallow lacustrine and paludine areas developed in distal zones of these alluvial fan complexes during Burdigalian (Early Miocene). At that time both facies development and their distribution were closely controlled by tectonic activity. Fault scarp retreat and back-faulting processes in the southeastem edge of the basin (observed in westem Valles afea), originated an expansive advance of distal alluvial-fan facies in that direction. The decreasing or cessation of the activity of the southeastern margin fault ca~sedi,n Late Burdigalian time (while faults in the northwestern margin were still active) facies redistribution, and gave way to the assymetry of the basin. Finally lacustrine, marine and transitional deposits of late burdigalian and langhian age, were laid down overlapping the southeastem inactive margins.

Diferencias en la dimensionalidad electroencefalograma entre vigilia y sueño profundo

Differences in dimensionality of electroencephalogram during awake and deeper sleep stages. The nonlinear dynamical systems theory provides some tools for the analysis of electroencephalogram (EEG) at different sleep stages. Its use could allow the automatic monitoring of the states of the sleep and it would also contribute an explanatory level of the differences between stages. The goal of the present paper is to address this type of analysis, focusing on the most different stages. Estimations of dimensionality were compared when six subjects were awake and in a deep sleep stage. Greater dimensionality involves more complexity because the system receives more external influences. If this dimensionality is maximum, we can consider that the time series is a noisy one. A smaller dimensionality involves lower complexity because the system receives fewer inputs. We hypothesized that we would find greater dimensionality when subjects were awake than in a deep sleep stage. Results show a noisy time series during the awake stage, whereas in the sleep stage, dimensionality is smaller, confirming our hypothesis. This result is similar to the findings reached previously by other authors.