Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypothesis testing

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available of the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times.

Some game-theoretic grounds for meeting people half-way

It is well known that, in distributions problems, fairness rarely leads to a single viewpoint (see, for instance, Young (1994)). In this context, this paper provides interesting bases that support the simple and commonly observed behavior of reaching intermediate agreements when two prominent distribution proposals highlight a discrepancy in sharing resources. Specifi cally, we formalize such a conflicting situation by associating it with a `natural' cooperative game, called bifocal distribution game, to show that both the Nucleolus (Schmeidler (1969)) and the Shapley value (Shapley (1953a)) agree on recommending the average of the two focal proposals. Furthermore, we analyze the interpretation of the previous result by means of axiomatic arguments. Keywords: Distribution problems, Cooperative games, Axiomatic analysis, Nucleolus, Shapley value. JEL Classi fication Numbers: C71, D63, D71.

Testing extreme value copulas to estimate the quantile

Testing weather or not data belongs could been generated by a family of extreme value copulas is difficult. We generalize a test and we prove that it can be applied whatever the alternative hypothesis. We also study the effect of using different extreme value copulas in the context of risk estimation. To measure the risk we use a quantile. Our results have motivated by a bivariate sample of losses from a real database of auto insurance claims. Methods are implemented in R.

A statistical procedure for testing social reciprocity at group, dyadic and individual levels

This paper examines statistical analysis of social reciprocity, that is, the balance between addressing and receiving behaviour in social interactions. Specifically, it focuses on the measurement of social reciprocity by means of directionality and skew-symmetry statistics at different levels. Two statistics have been used as overall measures of social reciprocity at group level: the directional consistency and the skew-symmetry statistics. Furthermore, the skew-symmetry statistic allows social researchers to obtain complementary information at dyadic and individual levels. However, having computed these measures, social researchers may be interested in testing statistical hypotheses regarding social reciprocity. For this reason, it has been developed a statistical procedure, based on Monte Carlo sampling, in order to allow social researchers to describe groups and make statistical decisions.

An efficient algorithm to perform multiple testing in epistasis screening

Background: Research in epistasis or gene-gene interaction detection for human complex traits has grown over the last few years. It has been marked by promising methodological developments, improved translation efforts of statistical epistasis to biological epistasis and attempts to integrate different omics information sources into the epistasis screening to enhance power. The quest for gene-gene interactions poses severe multiple-testing problems. In this context, the maxT algorithm is one technique to control the false-positive rate. However, the memory needed by this algorithm rises linearly with the amount of hypothesis tests. Gene-gene interaction studies will require a memory proportional to the squared number of SNPs. A genome-wide epistasis search would therefore require terabytes of memory. Hence, cache problems are likely to occur, increasing the computation time. In this work we present a new version of maxT, requiring an amount of memory independent from the number of genetic effects to be investigated. This algorithm was implemented in C++ in our epistasis screening software MBMDR-3.0.3. We evaluate the new implementation in terms of memory efficiency and speed using simulated data. The software is illustrated on real-life data for Crohn’s disease. Results: In the case of a binary (affected/unaffected) trait, the parallel workflow of MBMDR-3.0.3 analyzes all gene-gene interactions with a dataset of 100,000 SNPs typed on 1000 individuals within 4 days and 9 hours, using 999 permutations of the trait to assess statistical significance, on a cluster composed of 10 blades, containing each four Quad-Core AMD Opteron(tm) Processor 2352 2.1 GHz. In the case of a continuous trait, a similar run takes 9 days. Our program found 14 SNP-SNP interactions with a multiple-testing corrected p-value of less than 0.05 on real-life Crohn’s disease (CD) data. Conclusions: Our software is the first implementation of the MB-MDR methodology able to solve large-scale SNP-SNP interactions problems within a few days, without using much memory, while adequately controlling the type I error rates. A new implementation to reach genome-wide epistasis screening is under construction. In the context of Crohn’s disease, MBMDR-3.0.3 could identify epistasis involving regions that are well known in the field and could be explained from a biological point of view. This demonstrates the power of our software to find relevant phenotype-genotype higher-order associations.

A aldraxe proverbial da preguiza nas dúas versións españolas de The Way to Wealth de Benjamin Franklin

A admiración que destilou no seu tempo e durante o século XIX o bo sentido común das obras de Benjamin Franklin (1706-1790) plasmouse na tradución dos seus libros a un considerable número de linguas. The Way to Wealth (El camino de la fortuna o Cómo hacerse rico), publicado en 1758, contén máis de cen máximas que instan ao traballo honrado, á orde e ao aforro, condenando calquera sinal de preguiza ou desidia. O noso corpus nútrese dunha selección de trece aforismos que teñen relación precisamente con este vicio que condena á miseria, a preguiza. En cambio, o home de ben que aplique as virtudes contidas en The Way to Wealth, aconselladas a modo de refráns, verá, segundo o autor, prosperar esplendidamente a súa economía. Pretendemos analizar, dende os puntos de vista tradutolóxico e contrastivo, o corpus de dúas traducións españolas deste libriño de Franklin: unha anónima, publicada en Barcelona, en 1891; e a de Alberto Lena de 1999.

How Millennials are changing the way of learning: the state of the art of ICT integration in education

Millennials generation is changing the way of learning, prompting educational institutions to attempt to better adapt to young needs by incorporating technologies into education. Based on this premise, we have reviewed the prominent reports of the integration of ICT into education with the aim of evidencing how education is changing, and will change, to meet the needs ofMillennials with ICT support. We conclude that most of the investments have simply resulted in an increase of computers and access to the Internet, with teachers reproducing traditional approaches to education and e-learning being seen as complementary to face-to-face education. While it would seem that the use of ICT is not revolutionizing learning, it is facilitating the personalization, collaboration and ubiquity of learning.

Technology-enhanced education for Millennials: how the Information Society is changing the way of learning

The Information Society has provided the context for the development of a new generation, known as the Millennials, who are characterized by their intensive use of technologies in everyday life. These features are changing the way of learning, prompting educational institutions to attempt to better adapt to youngneeds by incorporating technologies into education. Based on this premise, wehave reviewed the prominent reports of the integration of ICT into education atdifferent levels with the aim of evidencing how education is changing, and willchange, to meet the needs of Millennials with ICT support. The results show thatmost of the investments have simply resulted in an increase of computers andaccess to the Internet, with teachers reproducing traditional approaches to education and e-learning being seen as complementary to face-to-face education.While it would seem that the use of ICT is not revolutionizing learning, it isfacilitating the personalization, collaboration and ubiquity of learning.

MyTopRoom : Aplicación para Android: Buscador de ofertas de hoteles

El objetivo de este proyecto es el desarrollo de una aplicación móvil para dispositivos con sistema operativo Android que permita la búsqueda de ofertas de hotel de una forma diferente a las actuales. Para ello se ha empleado el modelo del ciclo de vida en cascada, con las fases de análisis, diseño, construcción y pruebas del sistema desarrollado. El software final sigue una arquitectura de tipo cliente/servidor y ha sido realizado con Java como lenguaje base de programación, haciendo uso de algunas librerías como Apache HTTP Request para las conexiones con el servidor remoto como las propias de Android, que facilitan la creación de interfaces gráficas y la gestión de los recursos de los dispositivos en el desarrollo de aplicaciones móviles.

A general theory of rank testing

This paper develops an approach to rank testing that nests all existing rank tests andsimplifies their asymptotics. The approach is based on the fact that implicit in every ranktest there are estimators of the null spaces of the matrix in question. The approach yieldsmany new insights about the behavior of rank testing statistics under the null as well as localand global alternatives in both the standard and the cointegration setting. The approach alsosuggests many new rank tests based on alternative estimates of the null spaces as well as thenew fixed-b theory. A brief Monte Carlo study illustrates the results.

Gone with the Wind and the Southern Way of Life: the Civil War as described in Margaret Mitchell’s Novel

This essay examines the American Civil War of 1861 – 1865, which is also known as the bloodiest war that the United States has ever experienced. The pretext for the war was the abolition of slavery in the South, and after many battles the Southern states lost: as a consequence, they experienced major changes in their economic and social life. This interesting piece from American history can be traced out throughout the characters’ lives in the novel Gone with the Wind which has been thoroughly analyzed in order to draw nearer and to comprehend the changes in the Southern way of life before and after the war. The author, Margaret Mitchell, was born in Atlanta, Georgia, and grew up with the stories about the war. As a result, Gone with the Wind studies not only its causes, but also the years after its end – a period which is not generally a subject of history and receives little attention – and the effects that such reversals have on former planters and slaves. From the position of contemporaneity, the reader can see that such changes in a society do not end with the laying down of an act, or in this case the end of the war, but they continue during many years; thus, the modern world can draw conclusions and lessons for events that are happening at the moment.

Strategies and tools for preventing neurotoxicity: to test, to predict and how to do it

A change in paradigm is needed in the prevention of toxic effects on the nervous system, moving from its present reliance solely on data from animal testing to a prediction model mostly based on in vitro toxicity testing and in silico modeling. According to the report published by the National Research Council (NRC) of the US National Academies of Science, high-throughput in vitro tests will provide evidence for alterations in"toxicity pathways" as the best possible method of large scale toxicity prediction. The challenges to implement this proposal are enormous, and provide much room for debate. While many efforts address the technical aspects of implementing the vision, many questions around it need also to be addressed. Is the overall strategy the only one to be pursued? How can we move from current to future paradigms? Will we ever be able to reliably model for chronic and developmental neurotoxicity in vitro? This paper summarizes four presentations from a symposium held at the International Neurotoxicology Conference held in Xi"an, China, in June 2011. A. Li reviewed the current guidelines for neurotoxicity and developmental neurotoxicity testing, and discussed the major challenges existing to realize the NCR vision for toxicity testing. J. Llorens reviewed the biology of mammalian toxic avoidance in view of present knowledge on the physiology and molecular biology of the chemical senses, taste and smell. This background information supports the hypothesis that relating in vivo toxicity to chemical epitope descriptors that mimic the chemical encoding performed by the olfactory system may provide a way to the long term future of complete in silico toxicity prediction. S. Ceccatelli reviewed the implementation of rodent and human neural stem cells (NSCs) as models for in vitro toxicity testing that measures parameters such as cell proliferation, differentiation and migration. These appear to be sensitive endpoints that can identify substances with developmental neurotoxic potential. C. Sun ol reviewed the use of primary neuronal cultures in testing for neurotoxicity of environmental pollutants, including the study of the effects of persistent exposures and/or in differentiating cells, which allow recording of effects that can be extrapolated to human developmental neurotoxicity.

Testing website usability in Spanish-Speaking Academia through heuristic evaluation and cognitive walkthroughs

Although usability evaluations have been focused on assessing different contexts of use, no proper specifications have been addressed towards the particular environment of academic websites in the Spanish-speaking context of use. Considering that this context involves hundreds of millions of potential users, the AIPO Association is running the UsabAIPO Project. The ultimate goal is to promote an adequate translation of international standards, methods and ideal values related to usability in order to adapt them to diverse Spanish-related contexts of use. This article presents the main statistical results coming from the Second and Third Stages of the UsabAIPO Project, where the UsabAIPO Heuristic method (based on Heuristic Evaluation techniques) and seven Cognitive Walkthroughs were performed over 69 university websites. The planning and execution of the UsabAIPO Heuristic method and the Cognitive Walkthroughs, the definition of two usability metrics, as well as the outline of the UsabAIPO Heuristic Management System prototype are also sketched.

Optimal capital structure: a trade-off model and its empirical testing

In the present research we have set forth a new, simple, Trade-Off model that would allow us to calculate how much debt and, by default, how much equity a company should have, using easily available information and calculating the cost of debt dynamically on the basis of the effect that the capital structure of the company has on the risk of bankruptcy; in an attempt to answer this question. The proposed model has been applied to the companies that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 2007. We have used consolidated financial data from 1996 to 2006, published by Bloomberg. We have used simplex optimization method to find the debt level that maximizes firm value. Then, we compare the estimated debt with real debt of companies using statistical nonparametric Mann-Whitney. The results indicate that 63% of companies do not show a statistically significant difference between the real and the estimated debt.