The survival of the welfare state

This paper provides an analytical characterization of Markov perfectequilibria in a politico-economic model with repeated voting, whereagents vote over distortionary income redistribution. The key featureof the theory is that the future constituency of redistributive policiesdepends positively on the current level of redistribution, since thisaffects both private investments and the future distribution of voters.Agents vote rationally and fullly anticipate the effects of their politicalchoice on both private incentives and future voting outcomes. The modelfeatures multiple equilibria. In "pro-welfare" equilibria, both welfarestate policies and their effects on distribution persist forever. In"anti-welfare equilibria", even a majority of beneficiaries ofredistributive policies vote strategically so as to induce the formationof a future majority that will vote for zero redistribution.

Economic booms, trade deficits and economic policy

Many economic booms have been accompanied by realexchange rate appreciations, large trade defcits -whichhave sometimes persisted after the return to the initialexchange rate parity- and a deteriorating traded sector.Those circumstances have typically raised the questionof the de-sirability of some stabilization policy. We show that the dynamics induced by an expectedproductivity shock in an economy where the capital stockis non-mobile across sectors, match those circumstances.Furthermore, we obtain that credit market imperfectionstend to exacerbate trade deficits, and to cause aninefficient capacity reduction in the traded sector.Some stabilization policies are explored.

The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varyingcoefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables andin the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility,while a combination of technology, demand and monetary shocks explain variations inthe persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect changes over time in the transmission of technology shocks and in the variance of technology and of monetary policyshocks. Hours and labor productivity always increase in response to technology shocks.

Asset pricing with idiosyncratic risk and overlapping generations

A number of existing studies have concluded that risk sharing allocations supported by competitive, incomplete markets equilibria are quantitatively close to first-best. Equilibrium asset prices in these models have been difficult to distinguish from those associated with a complete markets model, the counterfactual features of which have been widely documented. This paper asks if life cycle considerations, in conjunction with persistent idiosyncratic shocks which become more volatile during aggregate downturns, can reconcile the quantitative properties of the competitive asset pricing framework with those of observed asset returns. We begin by arguing that data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics support the plausibility of such a shock process. Our estimates suggest a high degree of persistence as well as a substantial increase in idiosyncratic conditional volatility coincident with periods of low growth in U.S. GNP. When these factors are incorporated in a stationary overlapping generations framework, the implications for the returns on risky assets are substantial. Plausible parameterizations of our economy are able to generate Sharpe ratios which match those observed in U.S. data. Our economy cannot, however, account for the level of variability of stock returns, owing in large part to the specification of its production technology.

The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter.

Why are capital flows so much more volatile in emerging than in developed countries?

The standard deviations of capital flows to emerging countries are 80 percent higher than those to developed countries. First, we show that very little of this difference can be explained by more volatile fundamentals or by higher sensitivity to fundamentals. Second, we show that most of the difference in volatility can be accounted for by three characteristics of capital flows: (i) capital flows to emerging countries are more subject to occasional large negative shocks ( crises ) than those to developed countries, (ii) shocks are subject to contagion, and (iii) the most important one shocks to capital flows to emerging countries are more persistent than those to developed countries. Finally, we study a number of country characteristics to determine which are most associated with capital flow volatility. Our results suggest that underdevelopment of domestic financial markets, weak institutions, and low income per capita, are all associated with capital flow volatility.

Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allowsfor a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to setprices. The model nests the purely forward looking New KeynesianPhillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginalcosts as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theorysuggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costsare a significant and quantitatively important determinant ofinflation. Backward looking price setting, while statisticallysignificant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we concludethat the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good firstapproximation to the dynamics of inflation.

Improving college access and success for low-income students: Evidence from a large need-based grant program

Using comprehensive administrative data on France's single largest financialaid program, this paper provides new evidence on the impact of large-scaleneed-based grant programs on the college enrollment decisions, persistenceand graduation rates of low-income students. We exploit sharp discontinuitiesin the grant eligibility formula to identify the impact of aid on student outcomesat different levels of study. We find that eligibility for an annual cashallowance of 1,500 euros increases college enrollment rates by up to 5 percentagepoints. Moreover, we show that need-based grants have positive effectson student persistence and degree completion.

Trends in indices of daily precipitation extremes in Catalonia (NE Spain), 1951-2003

The aim of this paper is to quantitatively characterize the climatology of daily precipitation indices in Catalonia (northeastern Iberian Peninsula) from 1951 to 2003. This work has been performed analyzing a subset of the ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) precipitation indices calculated from a new interpolated dataset of daily precipitation, namely SPAIN02, regular at 0.2° horizontal resolution (around 20 km) and from two high-quality stations: the Ebro and Fabra observatories. Using a jack-knife technique, we have found that the sampling error of the SPAIN02 regional averaged is relatively low. The trend analysis has been implemented using a Circular Block Bootstrap procedure applicable to non-normal distributions and autocorrelated series. A running trend analysis has been applied to analyze the trend persistence. No general trends at a regional scale are observed, considering the annual or the seasonal regional averaged series of all the indices for all the time windows considered. Only the consecutive dry days index (CDD) at annual scale shows a locally coherent spatial trend pattern; around 30% of the Catalonia area has experienced an increase of around 2¿3 days decade¿1. The Ebro and Fabra observatories show a similar CDD trend, mainly due to the summer contribution. Besides this, a significant decrease in total precipitation (around ¿10 mm decade¿1) and in the index "highest precipitation amount in five-day period" (RX5DAY, around ¿5 mm decade¿1), have been found in summer for the Ebro observatory.

Tough adults, frail babies: an analysis of stress sensitivity across early life-history stages of widely introduced marine invertebrates

All ontogenetic stages of a life cycle are exposed to environmental conditions so that population persistence depends on the performance of both adults and offspring. Most studies analysing the influence of abiotic conditions on species performance have focussed on adults, while studies covering early life-history stages remain rare. We investigated the responses of early stages of two widely introduced ascidians, Styela plicata and Microcosmus squamiger, to different abiotic conditions. Stressors mimicked conditions in the habitats where both species can be found in their distributional ranges and responses were related to the selection potential of their populations by analysing their genetic diversity. Four developmental stages (egg fertilisation, larval development, settlement, metamorphosis) were studied after exposure to high temperature (30°C), low salinities (26 and 22 ) and high copper concentrations (25, 50 and 100 µg/L). Although most stressors effectively led to failure of complete development (fertilisation through metamorphosis), fertilisation and larval development were the most sensitive stages. All the studied stressors affected the development of both species, though responses differed with stage and stressor. S. plicata was overall more resistant to copper, and some stages of M. squamiger to low salinities. No relationship was found between parental genetic composition and responses to stressors. We conclude that successful development can be prevented at several life-history stages, and therefore, it is essential to consider multiple stages when assessing species' abilities to tolerate stress. Moreover, we found that early development of these species cannot be completed under conditions prevailing where adults live. These populations must therefore recruit from elsewhere or reproduce during temporal windows of more benign conditions. Alternatively, novel strategies or behaviours that increase overall reproductive success might be responsible for ensuring population survival.

Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies in sera from colectomised ulcerative colitis patients and its relation to the presence of pouchitis.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have evaluated the influence of colectomy on antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) positivity in ulcerative colitis (UC). In small series of patients it has been suggested that ANCA positivity in UC might be predictive for development of pouchitis after colectomy. AIMS: To assess the prevalence of ANCA in UC patients treated by colectomy and a Brooke's ileostomy (UC-BI) or ileal pouch anal anastomosis (UC-IPAA), and the relation between the presence of ANCA, the type of surgery, and the presence of pouchitis. SUBJECTS: 63 UC patients treated by colectomy (32 with UC-BI and 31 with UC-IPAA), 54 UC, and 24 controls. METHODS: Samples were obtained at least two years after colectomy. ANCA were detected by indirect immunofluorescent assay. RESULTS: There were no differences between patients with (36.3%) or without pouchitis (35.0%) and between patients with UC (55%), UC-BI (40.6%), and UC-IPAA (35.4%). However, ANCA prevalence significantly decreases in the whole group of operated patients (38.0%) compared with non-operated UC (p = 0.044). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of ANCA in operated patients was significantly lower than in non-operated UC, suggesting that it might be related either to the presence of inflamed or diseased tissue. ANCA persistence is not related to the surgical procedure and it should not be used as a marker for predicting the development of pouchitis.

Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : a univariate approach

In this paper we test for the hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis on the unemployment rates of the EU new members using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. As a by product, the analysis proceeds to the estimation of a NAIRU measure from a univariate point of view. The paper also focuses on the precision of these NAIRU estimates studying the two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the break points estimation and the autoregressive parameters estimation. The results point to the existence of up to four structural breaks in the transition countries NAIRU that can be associated with institutional changes implementing market-oriented reforms. Moreover, the degree of persistence in unemployment varies dramatically among the individual countries depending on the stage reached in the transition process

New Estimates of Regional GDP in Spain, 1860-1930

This paper presents a new regional database on GDP in Spain for the years 1860, 1900, 1914 and 1930. Following Geary and Stark (2002), country level GDP estimates are allocated across Spanish provinces. The results are then compared with previous estimates. Further, this new evidence is used to analyze the evolution of regional inequality and convergence in the long run. According to the distribution dynamics approach suggested by Quah (1993, 1996) persistence appears as a main feature in the regional distribution of output. Therefore, in the long run no evidence of regional convergence in the Spanish economy is found.

Unemployment dynamics and NAIRU estimates for CEECs : a univariate approach

In this paper we test for the hysteresis versus the natural rate hypothesis on the unemployment rates of the EU new members using unit root tests that account for the presence of level shifts. As a by product, the analysis proceeds to the estimation of a NAIRU measure from a univariate point of view. The paper also focuses on the precision of these NAIRU estimates studying the two sources of inaccuracy that derive from the break points estimation and the autoregressive parameters estimation. The results point to the existence of up to four structural breaks in the transition countries NAIRU that can be associated with institutional changes implementing market-oriented reforms. Moreover, the degree of persistence in unemployment varies dramatically among the individual countries depending on the stage reached in the transition process

Particle dispersion in synthetic turbulent flows

We study particle dispersion advected by a synthetic turbulent flow from a Lagrangian perspective and focus on the two-particle and cluster dispersion by the flow. It has been recently reported that Richardson¿s law for the two-particle dispersion can stem from different dispersion mechanisms, and can be dominated by either diffusive or ballistic events. The nature of the Richardson dispersion depends on the parameters of our flow and is discussed in terms of the values of a persistence parameter expressing the relative importance of the two above-mentioned mechanisms. We support this analysis by studying the distribution of interparticle distances, the relative velocity correlation functions, as well as the relative trajectories.