Les Crisis asiàtiques i el procés de globalització : el cas de Corea del Sud

Corea del Sud ha vist en els últims 50 anys com la seva economia creixia a unsritmes espectaculars fins arribar a situar-se entre les primeres del món. El seu ascenssemblava imparable fins que l’any 1997, de forma inesperada per la majoria, esclatà lacrisis. En aquells moments, Corea del Sud s’havia convertit en la undècima economiadel planeta i la sisena potència comercial, sent el primer productor de vaixells imemòries DRAM, el quart de béns electrònics de consum, el cinquè d’automòbils i deproductes petroquímics, els sisè d’acer i el setè de productes tèxtils,A mitjans dels anys 50 el país tenia una economia agrària afectada per unapobresa massiva, la seva renta per càpita era inferior a les d’Angola o Moçambic, peròentre 1962 i 1996 el seu PNB per càpita passà de 87 dòlars a més de 12.000 i el seuPIB es multiplicà per 12, amb una taxa anual mitja de creixement del 8%, convertint-seen un país industrial avançat. A més, durant els anys 70 i 80 havia resistitsorprenentment bé les perturbacions (energètiques, monetàries i comercials) externes,malgrat el seu model de creixement depenia molt de les importacions de petroli, deldeute extern (fins mitjans dels 80) i de les exportacions de manufactures als mercatsoccidentals, i havia superat bé els problemes de deute extern que afectaren a altrespaïsos en vies de desenvolupament.Durant els anys 90 el procés de globalització financera contribuí, aparentment,a sostenir aquest creixement, amb l’entrada d’una quantitat ingent de fluxos de capitalestranger i la integració cada cop més plena dins dels mercats mundials de la mà d’unprocés de liberalització financera i comercial, arribant a aconseguir a finals de 1996 laseva admissió a la Organització de Cooperació i Desenvolupament Econòmic (OCDE).Però aquests factors que contribuïren al creixement li passarien factura, al propiciaruna sèrie de vulnerabilitats macroeconòmiques que acabarien sortint a la llum en elcontext de la crisis asiàtica del 97 i mostrarien la necessitat d’un canvi en el model dedesenvolupament, tan exitós durant anys, però incapaç d’adaptar-se per si sol alsnous paràmetres de l’economia globalitzada.2Com a continuació es veurà, la crisis coreana té unes característiques concretes,que la diferencien de la patida per la resta de països afectats per la crisis asiàtica del97, però comparteix també elements en comú. La crisis coreana s’entén millor dins elmarc en què es produí, el de les crisis asiàtiques. Però encara podem anar més lluny, jaque per molts experts les crisis del 97 han estat les primeres grans crisis de laglobalització i per tant és des d’aquí que s’ha d’analitzar, fins arribar al cas concret deCorea del Sud, incomprensible sense tot el context general.Les debilitats estructurals de les diferents economies asiàtiques afectadespoden explicar parcialment la gènesis de la crisis, però es tracta per molts d’una crisissistèmica global, que s’insereix en un context molt més ampli. Per això s’ha dividit elsegüent anàlisi en tres parts: els efectes de la globalització en general, les crisisasiàtiques i finalment el cas concret de Corea del Sud.

Organizational Choice and Environmental Change

We explain the choice between franchising and vertical integration by estimating a model of relative performance in a sample of 250 Spanish car distributors, controlling for self-selection and including environmental factors. The method allows us to estimate performance counterfactuals. Organizational choice seemingly aims to contain moral hazard for both distributors and manufacturers but it is subject to start-up constraints and switching costs. While the market for franchises remained underdeveloped, information asymmetries led to the opening of integrated outlets. Their subsequent conversion into franchised outlets probably involved prohibitive transaction costs. Consequently, they performed worse than would have been expected had they been independent, as confirmed by the systematic improvement observed when they were in fact converted. The timing of such conversions suggests that switching costs were prohibitive until firms developed a substantial cushion of temporary contracts, previously forbidden by regulation.

Periodismo en reconstrucción, la otra cara de la crisis de la prensa

La crisis de la prensa escrita está provocada por el impacto de Internet, los errores estratégicos y la Gran Recesión. Pero existe una cuarta razón: una crisis de confianza y credibilidad provocada, a su vez, por una crisis ética. Por consiguiente las alternativas pasan también por una regeneración ética, por una ‘reconstrucción’ del periodism

The capital gains from trade are not enough: Evidence from the environmental accounts of Venezuela and Mexico

In principle, a country can not endure negative genuine savings for longperiods of time without experiencing declining consumption. Nevertheless,theoreticians envisage two alternatives to explain how an exporter ofnon-renewable natural resources could experience permanent negativegenuine savings and still ensure sustainability. The first one allegesthat the capital gains arising from the expected improvement in theterms of trade would suffice to compensate for the negative savings ofthe resource exporter. The second alternative points at technologicalchange as a way to avoid economic collapse. This paper uses the dataof Venezuela and Mexico to empirically test the first of these twohypotheses. The results presented here prove that the terms oftrade do not suffice to compensate the depletion of oil reservesin these two open economies.

The monetary pillar and the great financial crisis

Since its inception, a most distinctive (and controversial) feature of the ECB monetary policy strategy has been its emphasis on money and monetary analysis, which constitute the basis of the so-called monetary pillar. The present paper examines the performance of the monetary pillar around the recent financial crisis episode, and discusses its prospects in light of the renewed emphasis on financial stability and the need for enhanced macro-prudential policies.

Theoretical notes on bubbles and the current crisis

We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of abubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of thefinancial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show howthe model can account for: (i) a gradual and protracted expansionary phase followed by a suddenand sharp recession; (ii) the connection (or lack of connection!) between financial and real economicactivity and; (iii) a fast and strong transmission of shocks across countries. We also use the modelto explore the role of fiscal policy.

Interbank liquidity crunch and the firm credit crunch: Evidence from the 2007-2009 crisis

We study the credit supply effects of the unexpected freeze of the Europeaninterbank market, using exhaustive Portuguese loan-level data. We find thatbanks that rely more on interbank borrowing before the crisis decrease theircredit supply more during the crisis. The credit supply reduction is stronger forfirms that are smaller, with weaker banking relationships. Small firms cannotcompensate the credit crunch with other sources of debt. Furthermore, theimpact of illiquidity on the credit crunch is stronger for less solvent banks.Finally, there are no overall positive effects of central bank liquidity, but higherhoarding of liquidity.

Monetary policy in a systemic crisis

This paper examines the monetary policy followed during the current financial crisisfrom the perspective of the theory of the lender of last resort. It is argued that standardmonetary policy measures would have failed because the channels through whichmonetary policy is implemented depend upon the well functioning of the interbankmarket. As the crisis developed, liquidity vanished and the interbank market collapsed,central banks had to inject much more liquidity at low interest rates than predicted bystandard monetary policy models. At the same time, as the interbank market did notallow for the redistribution of liquidity among banks, central banks had to design newchannels for liquidity injection.

The adverse effects of environmental policy in green markets

We model green markets in which purchasers, either firms orconsumers, have higher willingness-to-pay for lesspolluting goods. The effectiveness of pollution reductionpolicies is examined in a duopoly setting. We show thatduopolists' strategic behaviour may increase pollutionlevels. Maximum emission standards, commonly used in greenmarkets, improve the environmental features of products.Nonetheless, overall pollution levels will rise becausegovernment regulation also affects market shares and bootsfirms' sales. Consequently, social welfare may be reduced.We also explore the effects of technological subsidies andproduct charges, including differentiation of charges.

Environmental factors giving rise to variations in national management accounting practice

Comparative national management accounting is the least developed aspect in the field of international accounting. Only during the second half of the 1990's some comparisons of national managementaccounting practice have appeared published but only at theregional level. In this paper a range of factors that give rise to variations in national management accounting practice are postulated. We support this list with examples from a range of analyses of national management accounting practices, drawing particularly on the work of Lizcano (1996) and Bhimani (1996).Finally, twelve key factors are identified as influencing an individual country's approach to management accounting.

Post crisis challenges to bank regulation

The current crisis has swept aside not only the whole of the US investment banking industry butalso the consensual perception of banking risks, contagion and their implication for bankingregulation. As everyone agrees now, risks where mispriced, they accumulated in neuralgic pointsof the financial system, and where amplified by procyclical regulation as well as by the instabilityand fragility of financial institutions.The use of ratings as carved in stone and lack of adequate procedure to swiftly deal withsystemic institutions bankruptcy (whether too-big-to-fail, too complex to fail or too-many to fail).The current paper will not deal with the description and analysis of the crisis, already covered inother contributions to this issue will address the critical choice regulatory authorities will face. Inthe future regulation has to change, but it is not clear that it will change in the right direction. Thismay occur if regulatory authorities, possibly influenced by public opinion and political pressure,adopt an incorrect view of financial crisis prevention and management. Indeed, there are twoapproaches to post-crisis regulation. One is the rare event approach, whereby financial crises willoccur infrequently, but are inescapable.

Country effects in ISSP-1993 environmental data: Comparison of SEM approaches

Structural equation models (SEM) are commonly used to analyze the relationship between variables some of which may be latent, such as individual ``attitude'' to and ``behavior'' concerning specific issues. A number of difficulties arise when we want to compare a large number of groups, each with large sample size, and the manifest variables are distinctly non-normally distributed. Using an specific data set, we evaluate the appropriateness of the following alternative SEM approaches: multiple group versus MIMIC models, continuous versus ordinal variables estimation methods, and normal theory versus non-normal estimation methods. The approaches are applied to the ISSP-1993 Environmental data set, with the purpose of exploring variation in the mean level of variables of ``attitude'' to and ``behavior''concerning environmental issues and their mutual relationship across countries. Issues of both theoretical and practical relevance arise in the course of this application.

Cambios en las condiciones de empleo y de salud durante la crisis económica en trabajadores inmigrantes en España

Objetivo: Evaluar la influencia de los cambios en las condiciones de empleo en la saludautopercibida y mental de trabajadores inmigrantes en España, tras un período de tresaños, en un contexto de crisis económica.

La LAU ante la crisis inmobiliaria

El present Treball de Fi de Carrera du a terme un anàlisi de l’evolució del mercat de la vivenda de lloguer a Espanya. Degut a la crisi immobiliària iniciada a l’any 2008, es posa en evidència la necessitat de potenciar l’arrendament al nostre país, opció que històricament es presentava en clar desavantatge enfront a la compra d’un immoble, però que en l’actualitat s’erigeix com una solució realista al problema d’accés a un habitatge digne. Per aquest motiu, s’analitza l’ampli ventall de normatives adoptades a través del temps, profunditzant en el problema de la vivenda i les dades rellevants a tenir en compte. Es fa menció especial al registre de morosos, un instrument que pretén pal·liar la manca de voluntat per part dels propietaris d’arrendar els seus immobles, de manera que es garanteixin els drets d’ambdues parts implicades, tenint en consideració el període de crisis en el que estem immersos en l’actualitat.

Relationship and transaction lending in a crisis

We study how relationship lending and transaction lending varyover the business cycle. We develop a model in which relationshipbanks gather information on their borrowers, which allows them toprovide loans for profitable firms during a crisis. Due to the servicesthey provide, operating costs of relationship-banks are higher thanthose of transaction-banks. In our model, where relationship-bankscompete with transaction-banks, a key result is that relationship-banks charge a higher intermediation spread in normal times, butoffer continuation-lending at more favorable terms than transactionbanks to profitable firms in a crisis. Using detailed credit registerinformation for Italian banks before and after the Lehman Brothers'default, we are able to study how relationship and transaction-banksresponded to the crisis and we test existing theories of relationshipbanking. Our empirical analysis confirms the basic prediction of themodel that relationship banks charged a higher spread before the crisis, offered more favorable continuation-lending terms in response tothe crisis, and suffered fewer defaults, thus confirming the informational advantage of relationship banking.