Dynamic graphics of parametrically linked multivariate methods used in compositional data analysis

Many multivariate methods that are apparently distinct can be linked by introducing oneor more parameters in their definition. Methods that can be linked in this way arecorrespondence analysis, unweighted or weighted logratio analysis (the latter alsoknown as "spectral mapping"), nonsymmetric correspondence analysis, principalcomponent analysis (with and without logarithmic transformation of the data) andmultidimensional scaling. In this presentation I will show how several of thesemethods, which are frequently used in compositional data analysis, may be linkedthrough parametrizations such as power transformations, linear transformations andconvex linear combinations. Since the methods of interest here all lead to visual mapsof data, a "movie" can be made where where the linking parameter is allowed to vary insmall steps: the results are recalculated "frame by frame" and one can see the smoothchange from one method to another. Several of these "movies" will be shown, giving adeeper insight into the similarities and differences between these methods.

Implications of dynamic trading for insurance markets

We study the interaction between insurance and capital markets within singlebut general framework.We show that capital markets greatly enhance the risksharing capacity of insurance markets and the scope of risks that areinsurable because efficiency does not depend on the number of agents atrisk, nor on risks being independent, nor on the preferences and endowmentsof agents at risk being the same. We show that agents share risks by buyingfull coverage for their individual risks and provide insurance capitalthrough stock markets.We show that aggregate risk enters private insuranceas positive loading on insurance prices and despite that agents will buyfull coverage. The loading is determined by the risk premium of investorsin the stock market and hence does not depend on the agent s willingnessto pay. Agents provide insurance capital by trading an equally weightedportfolio of insurance company shares and riskless asset. We are able toconstruct agents optimal trading strategies explicitly and for verygeneral preferences.

Dynamic higher order expectations

In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to formhigher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectationsmodels in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The frameworkis used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectationsidentified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finitedimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive andpresents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricingmodel with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.

Insurance with frequent trading: A dynamic analysis of efficient insurance markets

This paper extends existing insurance results on the type of insurance contracts needed for insurance market efficiency toa dynamic setting. It introduces continuosly open markets that allow for more efficient asset allocation. It alsoeliminates the role of preferences and endowments in the classification of risks, which is done primarily in terms of the actuarial properties of the underlying riskprocess. The paper further extends insurability to include correlated and catstrophic events. Under these very general conditions the paper defines a condition that determines whether a small number of standard insurance contracts (together with aggregate assets) suffice to complete markets or one needs to introduce such assets as mutual insurance.

Dynamic optimal law enforcement with learning

We incorporate the process of enforcement learning by assuming that the agency's current marginal cost is a decreasing function of its past experience of detecting and convicting. The agency accumulates data and information (on criminals, on opportunities of crime) enhancing the ability to apprehend in the future at a lower marginal cost.We focus on the impact of enforcement learning on optimal stationary compliance rules. In particular, we show that the optimal stationary fine could be less-than-maximal and the optimal stationary probability of detection could be higher-than-otherwise.

A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is thisconsistent with nondecreasing human welfare?Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. Weconstruct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education,physical capital, knowledge and the environment.We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (orIntergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion,that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We applythese criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property.The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for allgenerations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation ofknowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumptionand leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates requiresubstantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increasesin the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.

The extraordinarily bright optical afterglow of GRB 991208 and its host galaxy

Observations of the extraordinarily bright optical afterglow (OA) of GRB 991208 started 2.1 d after the event. The flux decay constant of the OA in the R-band is -2.30 +/- 0.07 up to 5 d, which is very likely due to the jet effect, and after that it is followed by a much steeper decay with constant -3.2 +/- 0.2, the fastest one ever seen in a GRB OA. A negative detection in several all-sky films taken simultaneously to the event implies either a previous additional break prior to 2 d after the occurrence of the GRB (as expected from the jet effect). The existence of a second break might indicate a steepening in the electron spectrum or the superposition of two events. Once the afterglow emission vanished, contribution of a bright underlying SN is found, but the light curve is not sufficiently well sampled to rule out a dust echo explanation. Our determination of z = 0.706 indicates that GRB 991208 is at 3.7 Gpc, implying an isotropic energy release of 1.15 x 10E53 erg which may be relaxed by beaming by a factor > 100. Precise astrometry indicates that the GRB coincides within 0.2' with the host galaxy, thus given support to a massive star origin. The absolute magnitude is M_B = -18.2, well below the knee of the galaxy luminosity function and we derive a star-forming rate of 11.5 +/- 7.1 Mo/yr. The quasi-simultaneous broad-band photometric spectral energy distribution of the afterglow is determined 3.5 day after the burst (Dec 12.0) implying a cooling frequency below the optical band, i.e. supporting a jet model with p = -2.30 as the index of the power-law electron distribution.

Predicting the potential for lightning activity in mediterranean storms based on the WRF model dynamic and microphysical fields

A new parameter is introduced: the lightning potential index (LPI), which is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. The LPI is calculated within the charge separation region of clouds between 0 C and 20 C, where the noninductive mechanism involving collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water is most effective. As shown in several case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with explicit microphysics, the LPI is highly correlated with observed lightning. It is suggested that the LPI may be a useful parameter for predicting lightning as well as a tool for improving weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall.

Optical nebulosities associated with IRAS sources in dense cloud cores

I, H¿ and [SII] CCD images of the regions around 4 young IRAS sources embedded in the dense molecular cloud cores CB 6, CB 39, AFGL 5142, and L 1251 are presented. Reflection nebulosities are found in all 4 regions. Herbig-Haro objects are detected in AFGL 5142 and L 1251. In both cases, the HH objects are new discoveries.

Optical counterpart of galactic plane variable radio sources

We present I-band deep CCD exposures of the fields of galactic plane radio variables. An optical counterpart, based on positional coincidence, has been found for 15 of the 27 observed program objects. The Johnson I magnitude of the sources identified is in the range 18-21.

Dynamic and Regulated Association of Caveolin with Lipid Bodies: Modulation of Lipid Body Motility and Function by a Dominant Negative Mutant

Caveolins are a crucial component of caveolae but have also been localized to the Golgi complex, and, under some experimental conditions, to lipid bodies (LBs). The physiological relevance and dynamics of LB association remain unclear. We now show that endogenous caveolin-1 and caveolin-2 redistribute to LBs in lipid loaded A431 and FRT cells. Association with LBs is regulated and reversible; removal of fatty acids causes caveolin to rapidly leave the lipid body. We also show by subcellular fractionation, light and electron microscopy that during the first hours of liver regeneration, caveolins show a dramatic redistribution from the cell surface to the newly formed LBs. At later stages of the regeneration process (when LBs are still abundant), the levels of caveolins in LBs decrease dramatically. As a model system to study association of caveolins with LBs we have used brefeldin A (BFA). BFA causes rapid redistribution of endogenous caveolins to LBs and this association was reversed upon BFA washout. Finally, we have used a dominant negative LB-associated caveolin mutant (cavDGV) to study LB formation and to examine its effect on LB function. We now show that the cavDGV mutant inhibits microtubule-dependent LB motility and blocks the reversal of lipid accumulation in LBs.

Cholesterol and Fatty Acids Regulate Dynamic Caveolin Trafficking through the Golgi Complex and between the Cell Surface and Lipid Bodies

Caveolins are a crucial component of plasma membrane (PM) caveolae but have also been localized to intracellular compartments, including the Golgi complex and lipid bodies. Mutant caveolins associated with human disease show aberrant trafficking to the PM and Golgi accumulation. We now show that the Golgi pool of mainly newly synthesized protein is detergent-soluble and predominantly in a monomeric state, in contrast to the surface pool. Caveolin at the PM is not recognized by specific caveolin antibodies unless PM cholesterol is depleted. Exit from the Golgi complex of wild-type caveolin-1 or -3, but not vesicular stomatitis virus-G protein, is modulated by changing cellular cholesterol levels. In contrast, a muscular dystrophy-associated mutant of caveolin-3, Cav3P104L, showed increased accumulation in the Golgi complex upon cholesterol treatment. In addition, we demonstrate that in response to fatty acid treatment caveolin can follow a previously undescribed pathway from the PM to lipid bodies and can move from lipid bodies to the PM in response to removal of fatty acids. The results suggest that cholesterol is a rate-limiting component for caveolin trafficking. Changes in caveolin flux through the exocytic pathway can therefore be an indicator of cellular cholesterol and fatty acid levels.

The dynamic adjustment of local government budgets : Does Spain behave differently?

[spa] El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar si los municipios españoles se ajustan en presencia de un shock presupuestario y (si es así) qué elementos del presupuesto son los que realizan el ajuste. La metodología utilizada para contestar estas preguntas es un mecanismo de corrección del error, VECM, que estimamos con un panel de datos de los municipios españoles durante el período 1988-2006. Nuestros resultados confirman que, en primer lugar, los municipios se ajustan en presencia de un shock fiscal (es decir, el déficit es estacionario en el largo plazo). En segundo lugar, obtenemos que cuando el shock afecta a los ingresos el ajuste lo soporta principalmente el municipio reduciendo el gasto, las transferencias tienen un papel muy reducido en este proceso de ajuste. Por el contrario, cuando el shock afecta al gasto, el ajuste es compartido en términos similares entre el municipio – incrementado los impuestos – y los gobiernos de niveles superiores – incrementando las transferencias. Estos resultados sugieren que la viabilidad de las finanzas pública locales es factible con diferentes entornos institucionales.