Decision making in uncertain and changing environments

We consider an agent who has to repeatedly make choices in an uncertainand changing environment, who has full information of the past, who discountsfuture payoffs, but who has no prior. We provide a learning algorithm thatperforms almost as well as the best of a given finite number of experts orbenchmark strategies and does so at any point in time, provided the agentis sufficiently patient. The key is to find the appropriate degree of forgettingdistant past. Standard learning algorithms that treat recent and distant pastequally do not have the sequential epsilon optimality property.

Adaptive dynamics and the implementation problem with complete information

This paper studies the equilibrating process of several implementationmechanisms using naive adaptive dynamics. We show that the dynamics convergeand are stable, for the canonical mechanism of implementation in Nash equilibrium.In this way we cast some doubt on the criticism of ``complexity'' commonlyused against this mechanism. For mechanisms that use more refined equilibrium concepts,the dynamics converge but are not stable. Some papers in the literatureon implementation with refined equilibrium concepts have claimed that themechanisms they propose are ``simple'' and implement ``everything'' (incontrast with the canonical mechanism). The fact that some of these ``simple''mechanisms have unstable equilibria suggests that these statements shouldbe interpreted with some caution.

Simple and fast methods based on solid-phase extraction coupled to liquid chromatography with UV detection for the monitoring of caffeine in natural and waste waters as marker of anthropogenic impact

Two concentration methods for fast and routine determination of caffeine (using HPLC-UV detection) in surface, and wastewater are evaluated. Both methods are based on solid-phase extraction (SPE) concentration with octadecyl silica sorbents. A common “offline” SPE procedure shows that quantitative recovery of caffeine is obtained with 2 mL of an elution mixture solvent methanol-water containing at least 60% methanol. The method detection limit is 0.1 μg L−1 when percolating 1 L samples through the cartridge. The development of an “online” SPE method based on a mini-SPE column, containing 100 mg of the same sorbent, directly connected to the HPLC system allows the method detection limit to be decreased to 10 ng L−1 with a sample volume of 100 mL. The “offline” SPE method is applied to the analysis of caffeine in wastewater samples, whereas the “on-line” method is used for analysis in natural waters from streams receiving significant water intakes from local wastewater treatment plants

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Introduction of sensor spectral response into image fusion methods. Application to wavelet-based methods

Usual image fusion methods inject features from a high spatial resolution panchromatic sensor into every low spatial resolution multispectral band trying to preserve spectral signatures and improve spatial resolution to that of the panchromatic sensor. The objective is to obtain the image that would be observed by a sensor with the same spectral response (i.e., spectral sensitivity and quantum efficiency) as the multispectral sensors and the spatial resolution of the panchromatic sensor. But in these methods, features from electromagnetic spectrum regions not covered by multispectral sensors are injected into them, and physical spectral responses of the sensors are not considered during this process. This produces some undesirable effects, such as resolution overinjection images and slightly modified spectral signatures in some features. The authors present a technique which takes into account the physical electromagnetic spectrum responses of sensors during the fusion process, which produces images closer to the image obtained by the ideal sensor than those obtained by usual wavelet-based image fusion methods. This technique is used to define a new wavelet-based image fusion method.

Gas identification with tin oxide sensor array and self-organizing maps: adaptive correction of sensor drifts

Low-cost tin oxide gas sensors are inherently nonspecific. In addition, they have several undesirable characteristics such as slow response, nonlinearities, and long-term drifts. This paper shows that the combination of a gas-sensor array together with self-organizing maps (SOM's) permit success in gas classification problems. The system is able to determine the gas present in an atmosphere with error rates lower than 3%. Correction of the sensor's drift with an adaptive SOM has also been investigated

Binding energy and momentum distribution of nuclear matter using Green's functions methods

The influence of hole-hole (h-h) propagation in addition to the conventional particle-particle (p-p) propagation, on the energy per particle and the momentum distribution is investigated for the v2 central interaction which is derived from Reid¿s soft-core potential. The results are compared to Brueckner-Hartree-Fock calculations with a continuous choice for the single-particle (SP) spectrum. Calculation of the energy from a self-consistently determined SP spectrum leads to a lower saturation density. This result is not corroborated by calculating the energy from the hole spectral function, which is, however, not self-consistent. A generalization of previous calculations of the momentum distribution, based on a Goldstone diagram expansion, is introduced that allows the inclusion of h-h contributions to all orders. From this result an alternative calculation of the kinetic energy is obtained. In addition, a direct calculation of the potential energy is presented which is obtained from a solution of the ladder equation containing p-p and h-h propagation to all orders. These results can be considered as the contributions of selected Goldstone diagrams (including p-p and h-h terms on the same footing) to the kinetic and potential energy in which the SP energy is given by the quasiparticle energy. The results for the summation of Goldstone diagrams leads to a different momentum distribution than the one obtained from integrating the hole spectral function which in general gives less depletion of the Fermi sea. Various arguments, based partly on the results that are obtained, are put forward that a self-consistent determination of the spectral functions including the p-p and h-h ladder contributions (using a realistic interaction) will shed light on the question of nuclear saturation at a nonrelativistic level that is consistent with the observed depletion of SP orbitals in finite nuclei.

Application of fuzzy-rule-based postprocessing to correlation methods in pattern recognition

One of the most important problems in optical pattern recognition by correlation is the appearance of sidelobes in the correlation plane, which causes false alarms. We present a method that eliminate sidelobes of up to a given height if certain conditions are satisfied. The method can be applied to any generalized synthetic discriminant function filter and is capable of rejecting lateral peaks that are even higher than the central correlation. Satisfactory results were obtained in both computer simulations and optical implementation.