The Impact of Monetary Union on EU-15 Sovereign Debt Yield Spreads

With European Monetary Union (EMU), there was an increase in the adjusted spreads (corrected from the foreign exchange risk) of euro participating countries' sovereign securities over Germany and a decrease in those of non-euro countries. The objective of this paper is to study the reasons for this result, and in particular, whether the change in the price assigned by markets was due to domestic factors such as credit risk and/or market liquidity, or to international risk factors. The empirical evidence suggests that market size scale economies have increased since EMU for all European markets, so the effect of the various risk factors, even though it differs between euro and non-euro countries, is always dependent on the size of the market.

¿La sobreeducacion de los padres afecta al rendimiento academico de sus hijos?

El objetivo del trabajo consiste en analizar si el desajuste educativo de los progenitores afecta a los resultados educativos de los hijos. Para ello, se utilizan los microdatos de PISA-2009 para España, dado que facilita información detallada sobre el rendimiento educativo de los estudiantes, sus características personales y la de su entorno escolar y familiar lo que la hace idónea para llevar a cabo el estudio planteado. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que los estudiantes con progenitores sobreeducados tienen una penalización en su rendimiento académico en las tres materias analizadas, siendo ésta más intensa para los estudiantes con peores resultados educativos.

El joc d'esquena del davanter centre al futbol, és més eficaç jugant de cara o girant-se?

Segons Castelo (1999, 2009) i Ardá i Casal (2003) la fase ofensiva del futbol es divideix en la fase de progressió, en la qual es busca progressar a porteria, i en la fase de manteniment o emergència, en la qual s’assegura la possessió de la pilota. L’objectiu és analitzar si quan el davanter centre rep la pilota d’esquena a porteria, es manté amb més eficàcia la possessió jugant en progressió o en emergència durant els 5” posteriors a la recepció de la pilota per part del davanter. L’estudi és Descriptiu d’Observació Directa, en aquest s’observen i s’analitzen, a través de vídeos, 10 partits de la fase de grups de la fase final de la Eurocopa 2012, en concret els partits són dels grups A i B. Els resultats confirmen la hipòtesi inicial, ja que es manté amb més eficàcia la pilota quan aquesta es juga en emergència (71%) que no pas en progressió (54%).

Comparació del servei en curt i en llarg del porter dins de la fase ofensiva del joc

En el procés ofensiu de la majoria d’equips de futbol, es pot distingir una tendència a jugar en base a dos estils de joc. Un estil basat en un joc en curt, per tal de poder mantenir la possessió de la pilota, i estar durant més temps atacant la porteria contraria. I un altre estil que prefereix buscar la profunditat en les seves accions, anant d’una forma més directe cap a la porteria rival. En aquest treball es pretén analitzar quin dels dos estils és millor perquè un equip encadeni un total de 6 accions, tenint com a referència en l’inici de la jugada al porter. Per tal d’aconseguir-ho s’analitzaran els 24 partits de la fase de grups de l’Eurocopa 2012 a través d’una metodologia pròpia, que ens permetrà saber a través de quines situacions rep la pilota el porter abans de posar la pilota en joc, i a través de quines accions, l’equip no és capaç d’assolir el nombre d’encadenaments marcat.

European Integration: Partisan Motives or Economic Benefits?

In this paper we examine the influence of economic factors to explain partisan support for European integration over the last three decades. We find that partisan support is larger in `poorer' countries with direct economic bene fits from EU membership. On the contrary, parties in countries aff ected by the Maastricht criteria are more Euro-sceptical. Moreover, we find weak evidence for larger partisan support in countries with more developed welfare states, and that the support for European integration fluctuates in parallel with the business cycle. Finally, our results indicate that the importance of economic factors in determining partisan support for European integration has grown in recent periods. JEL classi fication: F15, F42, F53, F55, H60. Key words: European Integration; Partisan Ideology; Maastricht Criteria; European Budget; Benefi ts from Trade.

Construyendo una nueva Europa. La europeización del modelo de seguridad en Georgia

La Estrategia de Seguridad Nacional de cada país se basa en el análisis de los valores, intereses y amenazas contra la seguridad interna y externa. Los intereses de Georgia y Europa con respecto al tema de seguridad coinciden plenamente uno con el otro, según se sostiene en este trabajo. La evolución de los últimos años confirma que es necesario tener grandes dosis de diálogo para construir el sistema de la seguridad europea. Para que Europa tenga una lógica común hay que trabajar para construir una seguridad unificada. Europeizar el llamado "Concepto de la Seguridad Nacional de Georgia" requiere la consolidación democrática. El respeto a los Derechos Humanos, la garantía de las libertades civiles y políticas, así como la libertad de expresión son algunas de las dimensiones de la democracia, que, a pesar de los problemas y tensiones, se han fortalecido desde que Georgia declaró su lealtad a la integración Euro-atlántica. Ahora corresponde llevar a cabo el salto cualitativo hacia la consolidación de la democracia. Desde este punto de vista, entendemos que la "europeización" es algo paralelo y tan importante como la democracia

Causality and Contagion in EMU Sovereign Debt Markets

This paper contributes to the literature by applying the Granger causality approach and endogenous breakpoint test to offer an operational definition of contagion to examine European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries public debt behaviour. A database of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by 11 EMU countries covering fourteen years of monetary union is used. The main results suggest that the 41 new causality patterns, which appeared for the first time in the crisis period, and the intensification of causality recorded in 70% of the cases, provide clear evidence of contagion in the aftermath of the current euro debt crisis.

EMU sovereign debt market crisis: Fundamentals-based or pure contagion?

We empirically investigate whether the transmission of the recent crisis in euro area sovereign debt markets was due to fundamentals-based or pure contagion. To do so, we examine the behaviour of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund for a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012. First we apply a dynamic approach to analyse the evolution of the degree of Grangercausality within the 90 pairs of sovereign bond yield spreads in our sample, in order to detect episodes of significantly increased causality between them (which we associate with contagion) and episodes of significantly reduced interconnection (which we associate with immunisation). We then use an ordered logit model to assess the determinants of the occurrence of the episodes detected. Our results suggest the importance of variables proxying market sentiment and of variables proxying macrofundamentals in determining contagion and immunisation outcomes. Therefore, our findings underline the coexistence of “pure” and “fundamentals-based contagion” during the recent European debt crisis.

EMU sovereign debt market crisis: Fundamentals-based or pure contagion?

We empirically investigate whether the transmission of the recent crisis in euro area sovereign debt markets was due to fundamentals-based or pure contagion. To do so, we examine the behaviour of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund for a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012. First we apply a dynamic approach to analyse the evolution of the degree of Grangercausality within the 90 pairs of sovereign bond yield spreads in our sample, in order to detect episodes of significantly increased causality between them (which we associate with contagion) and episodes of significantly reduced interconnection (which we associate with immunisation). We then use an ordered logit model to assess the determinants of the occurrence of the episodes detected. Our results suggest the importance of variables proxying market sentiment and of variables proxying macrofundamentals in determining contagion and immunisation outcomes. Therefore, our findings underline the coexistence of “pure” and “fundamentals-based contagion” during the recent European debt crisis.

Causality and Contagion in EMU Sovereign Debt Markets

This paper contributes to the literature by applying the Granger causality approach and endogenous breakpoint test to offer an operational definition of contagion to examine European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries public debt behaviour. A database of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by 11 EMU countries covering fourteen years of monetary union is used. The main results suggest that the 41 new causality patterns, which appeared for the first time in the crisis period, and the intensification of causality recorded in 70% of the cases, provide clear evidence of contagion in the aftermath of the current euro debt crisis.

Causality and Contagion in EMU Sovereign Debt Markets

This paper contributes to the literature by applying the Granger causality approach and endogenous breakpoint test to offer an operational definition of contagion to examine European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) countries public debt behaviour. A database of yields on 10-year government bonds issued by 11 EMU countries covering fourteen years of monetary union is used. The main results suggest that the 41 new causality patterns, which appeared for the first time in the crisis period, and the intensification of causality recorded in 70% of the cases, provide clear evidence of contagion in the aftermath of the current euro debt crisis.

Influence of M. tuberculosis lineage variability within a clinical trial for pulmonary tuberculosis.

Recent studies suggest that M. tuberculosis lineage and host genetics interact to impact how active tuberculosis presents clinically. We determined the phylogenetic lineages of M. tuberculosis isolates from participants enrolled in the Tuberculosis Trials Consortium Study 28, conducted in Brazil, Canada, South Africa, Spain, Uganda and the United States, and secondarily explored the relationship between lineage, clinical presentation and response to treatment. Large sequence polymorphisms and single nucleotide polymorphisms were analyzed to determine lineage and sublineage of isolates. Of 306 isolates genotyped, 246 (80.4%) belonged to the Euro-American lineage, with sublineage 724 predominating at African sites (99/192, 51.5%), and the Euro-American strains other than 724 predominating at non-African sites (89/114, 78.1%). Uneven distribution of lineages across regions limited our ability to discern significant associations, nonetheless, in univariate analyses, Euro-American sublineage 724 was associated with more severe disease at baseline, and along with the East Asian lineage was associated with lower bacteriologic conversion after 8 weeks of treatment. Disease presentation and response to drug treatment varied by lineage, but these associations were no longer statistically significant after adjustment for other variables associated with week-8 culture status.

The use of cost per life year gained as a measurement of cost-effectiveness in Spain: a systematic review of recent publications

The objective of this study was to evaluate the methodological characteristics of cost-effectiveness evaluations carried out in Spain, since 1990, which include LYG as an outcome to measure the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. METHODS: A systematic review of published studies was conducted describing their characteristics and methodological quality. We analyse the cost per LYG results in relation with a commonly accepted Spanish cost-effectiveness threshold and the possible relation with the cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained when they both were calculated for the same economic evaluation. RESULTS: A total of 62 economic evaluations fulfilled the selection criteria, 24 of them including the cost per QALY gained result as well. The methodological quality of the studies was good (55%) or very good (26%). A total of 124 cost per LYG results were obtained with a mean ratio of 49,529<euro> and a median of 11,490<euro> (standard deviation of 183,080). Since 2003, a commonly accepted Spanish threshold has been referenced by 66% of studies. A significant correlation was found between the cost per LYG and cost per QALY gained results (0.89 Spearman-Rho, 0.91 Pearson). CONCLUSIONS: There is an increasing interest for economic health care evaluations in Spain, and the quality of the studies is also improving. Although a commonly accepted threshold exists, further information is needed for decision-making as well as to identify the relationship between the costs per LYG and per QALY gained.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cardiac resynchronization therapy in patients with NYHA I and NYHA II heart failure in Spain

Objectives: The aim of the study was to combine clinical results from the European Cohort of the REVERSE study and costs associated with the addition of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) to optimal medical therapy (OMT) in patients with mild symptomatic (NYHA I-II) or asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction and markers of cardiac dyssynchrony in Spain. Methods: A Markov model was developed with CRT + OMT (CRT-ON) versus OMT only (CRT-OFF) based on a retrospective cost-effectiveness analysis. Raw data was derived from literature and expert opinion, reflecting clinical and economic consequences of patient"s management in Spain. Time horizon was 10 years. Both costs (euro 2010) and effects were discounted at 3 percent per annum. Results: CRT-ON showed higher total costs than CRT-OFF; however, CRT reduced the length of hospitalization in ICU by 94 percent (0.006 versus 0.091 days) and general ward in by 34 percent (0.705 versus 1.076 days). Surviving CRT-ON patients (88.2 percent versus 77.5 percent) remained in better functional class longer, and they achieved an improvement of 0.9 life years (LYGs) and 0.77 years quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). CRT-ON proved to be cost-effective after 6 years, except for the 7th year due to battery depletion. At 10 years, the results were 18,431 per LYG and 21,500 per QALY gained. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed CRT-ON was cost-effective in 75.4 percent of the cases at 10 years. Conclusions: The use of CRT added to OMT represents an efficient use of resources in patients suffering from heart failure in NYHA functional classes I and II.

An update on EMU sovereign yield spread drivers in times of crisis: A panel data analysis

We empirically investigate the determinants of EMU sovereign bond yield spreads with respect to the German bund. Using panel data techniques, we examine the role of a wide set of potential drivers. To our knowledge, this paper presents one of the most exhaustive compilations of the variables used in the literature to study the behaviour of sovereign yield spreads and, in particular, to gauge the effect on these spreads of changes in market sentiment and risk aversion. We use a sample of both central and peripheral countries from January 1999 to December 2012 and assess whether there were significant changes after the outbreak of the euro area debt crisis. Our results suggest that the rise in sovereign risk in central countries can only be partially explained by the evolution of local macroeconomic variables in those countries.