How does monetary policy change? evidence on inflation targeting countries

We examine the evolution of monetary policy rules in a group of inflation targeting countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, Sweden and the United Kingdom) applying moment- based estimator at time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. Using this novel flexible framework, our main findings are threefold. First, monetary policy rules change gradually pointing to the importance of applying time-varying estimation framework. Second, the interest rate smoothing parameter is much lower that what previous time-invariant estimates of policy rules typically report. External factors matter for all countries, albeit the importance of exchange rate diminishes after the adoption of inflation targeting. Third, the response of interest rates on inflation is particularly strong during the periods, when central bankers want to break the record of high inflation such as in the U.K. or in Australia at the beginning of 1980s. Contrary to common wisdom, the response becomes less aggressive after the adoption of inflation targeting suggesting the positive effect of this regime on anchoring inflation expectations. This result is supported by our finding that inflation persistence as well as policy neutral rate typically decreased after the adoption of inflation targeting.

Is monetary policy in new members states asymmetric?

Estimated Taylor rules became popular as a description of monetary policy conduct. There are numerous reasons why real monetary policy can be asymmetric and estimated Taylor rule nonlinear. This paper tests whether monetary policy can be described as asymmetric in three new European Union (EU) members (the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland), which apply an inflation targeting regime. Two different empirical frameworks are

Monetary policy rules and financial stress: does financial instability matter for monetary

We examine whether and how main central banks responded to episodes of financial stress over the last three decades. We employ a new methodology for monetary policy rules estimation, which allows for time-varying response coefficients as well as corrects for endogeneity. This flexible framework applied to the U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada and Sweden together with a new financial stress dataset developed by the International Monetary Fund allows not only testing whether the central banks responded to financial stress but also detects the periods and type of stress that were the most worrying for monetary authorities and to quantify the intensity of policy response. Our findings suggest that central banks often change policy

Fiscal policy, foresight and the trade balance in the U.S.

This paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on the trade balance using a structural factor model. A fiscal policy shock worsens the trade balance and produces an appreciation of the domestic currency but the effects are quantitatively small. The findings match the theoretical predictions of the standard Mundell-Fleming model, although fiscal policy should not be considered one of the main causes of the large US external deficit. My conclusions differ from those reached using VAR models since the fiscal shock, possibly due to fiscal foresight, is nonfundamental for the variables typically used in open economy VARs.

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Patent policy, patent pools, and the accumulation of claims in sequential innovation

We present a dynamic model where the accumulation of patents generates an increasing number of claims on sequential innovation. We compare innovation activity under three regimes -patents, no-patents, and patent pools- and find that none of them can reach the first best. We find that the first best can be reached through a decentralized tax-subsidy mechanism, by which innovators receive a subsidy when they innovate, and are taxed with subsequent innovations. This finding implies that optimal transfers work in the exact opposite way as traditional patents. Finally, we consider patents of finite duration and determine the optimal patent length.

Candidate quality in a Downsian Model with a continuous policy space

This paper characterizes a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium in a one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections with a continuous policy space, where candidates are office motivated and one candidate enjoys a non-policy advantage over the other candidate. We assume that voters have quadratic preferences over policies and that their ideal points are drawn from a uniform distribution over the unit interval. In our equilibrium the advantaged candidate chooses the expected median voter with probability one and the disadvantaged candidate uses a mixed strategy that is symmetric around it. We show that this equilibrium exists if the number of voters is large enough relative to the size of the advantage.

On Lundh's percolation diffusion

A collection of spherical obstacles in the unit ball in Euclidean space is said to be avoidable for Brownian motion if there is a positive probability that Brownian motion diffusing from some point in the ball will avoid all the obstacles and reach the boundary of the ball. The centres of the spherical obstacles are generated according to a Poisson point process while the radius of an obstacle is a deterministic function. If avoidable configurations are generated with positive probability Lundh calls this percolation diffusion. An integral condition for percolation diffusion is derived in terms of the intensity of the point process and the function that determines the radii of the obstacles.

On Lundh's percolation diffusion

A collection of spherical obstacles in the unit ball in Euclidean space is said to be avoidable for Brownian motion if there is a positive probability that Brownian motion diffusing from some point in the ball will avoid all the obstacles and reach the boundary of the ball. The centres of the spherical obstacles are generated according to a Poisson point process while the radius of an obstacle is a deterministic function. If avoidable con gurations are generated with positive probability Lundh calls this percolation di usion. An integral condition for percolation di ffusion is derived in terms of the intensity of the point process and the function that determines the radii of the obstacles.

Evaluating antitrust leniency programs

This paper identifies and then quantifies econometrically the impact of leniency programs on the perception of the effectiveness of antitrust policies using country level panel data for a 10-year span. Leniency programs have been introduced gradually in antitrust legislation across the globe to fight more effectively against cartels. We use the dynamics of the diffusion of such policy innovation across countries and over time to evaluate the impact of the program. We find that leniency programs have had a significant impact on the perception among the business community of the effectiveness of each country‟s antitrust policy. Leniency programs have become weapons of mass dissuasion in the hands of antitrust enforcers against the more damaging forms of explicit collusion among rival firms in the market place.

The EU as a foreign policy actor – should human rights really be promoted in China?

La UE promou les seves normes i principis com els drets humans a tercers països també. en aquest document conceptualitza la UE en el seu poder normatiu i presenta la seva política de drets humans i alguns interpretacions alternatives dels drets humans. La qüestió de si, i en el qual el preu de la UE ha de promoure els drets humans a la Xina, tenint en compte diversos punts de conflicte i si es pot complir amb el seu paper d'un poder normatiu a la llum de diferents restriccions s'examinen. Finalment, és analitza el que això implica per a la realització limitada demanda original de la UE i el que un optimitzat. política de drets humans pot semblar

Acute Damage to the Posterior Limb of the Internal Capsule on Diffusion Tensor Tractography as an Early Imaging Predictor of Motor Outcome after Stroke

Background and Purpose Early prediction of motor outcome is of interest in stroke management. We aimed to determine whether lesion location at DTT is predictive of motor outcome after acute stroke and whether this information improves the predictive accuracy of the clinical scores. Methods We evaluated 60 consecutive patients within 12 hours of MCA stroke onset. We used DTT to evaluate CST involvement in the MC and PMC, CS, CR, and PLIC and in combinations of these regions at admission, at day 3, and at day 30. Severity of limb weakness was assessed using the m-NIHSS (5a, 5b, 6a, 6b). We calculated volumes of infarct and FA values in the CST of the pons. Results Acute damage to the PLIC was the best predictor associated with poor motor outcome, axonal damage, and clinical severity at admission (P&.001). There was no significant correlation between acute infarct volume and motor outcome at day 90 (P=.176, r=0.485). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of acute CST involvement at the level of the PLIC for 4 motor outcome at day 90 were 73.7%, 100%, 100%, and 89.1%, respectively. In the acute stage, DTT predicted motor outcome at day 90 better than the clinical scores (R2=75.50, F=80.09, P&.001). Conclusions In the acute setting, DTT is promising for stroke mapping to predict motor outcome. Acute CST damage at the level of the PLIC is a significant predictor of unfavorable motor outcome.

On the analysis of travelling waves to a nonlinear flux limited reaction-diffusion equation

In this paper we study the existence and qualitative properties of travelling waves associated to a nonlinear flux limited partial differential equation coupled to a Fisher-Kolmogorov-Petrovskii-Piskunov type reaction term. We prove the existence and uniqueness of finite speed moving fronts of C2 classical regularity, but also the existence of discontinuous entropy travelling wave solutions.

Usability of Virtual Museums and the Diffusion of Cultural Heritage

Les prioritats per als museus canvien. La missió de la nova museologia és convertir els museus en llocs per a gaudir i aprendre, cosa que fa que hagin de dur a terme una gestió financera molt semblant a la d'una empresa social que competeixi en el sector del lleure. Amb el pas del temps, els museus han d'establir i aplicar els criteris necessaris per a la supervivència, aplanant el terreny perquè altres institucions públiques siguin més obertes en els seus esforços per comunicar i difondre el seu patrimoni. Ja podem començar a parlar d'algunes conclusions comunament acceptades sobre el comportament dels visitants, que són necessàries per a planificar exposicions futures que vegin l'aprenentatge com un procés constructiu, les col·leccions com a objectes amb significat i les mateixes exposicions com a mitjans de comunicació que haurien de transformar la manera de pensar de l'espectador i que estan al servei del mateix missatge. Sembla que internet representa un mitjà efectiu per a assolir aquests objectius, ja que és capaç (a) d'adaptar-se als interessos i les característiques intel·lectuals d'un públic divers; (b) de redescobrir els significats dels objectes i adquirir un reconeixement sociocultural del seu valor per mitjà del seu potencial interactiu, i (c) de fer ús d'elements atractius i estimulants perquè tothom en gaudeixi. Per a aquest propòsit, és bàsic fer-nos les preguntes següents: quins criteris ha de seguir un museu virtual per a optimar la difusió del seu patrimoni?; quins elements estimulen els usuaris a quedar-se en una pàgina web i fer visites virtuals que els siguin satisfactòries?; quin paper té la usabilitat de l'aplicació en tot això?