Bands width, credibility and exchange risk: Lessons from the EMS experience

This paper presents an analysis of the credibility of the EMScurrencies that covers the period before and after the increase in thebands of fluctuation. Our credibility indicator is based on the inferredprobabilities derived from the estimation of a Markov-switching model(Hamilton (1989)) applied to the expected rate of depreciation. Theresults show that, for most of the currencies, credibility has improved,at least transitorily, after the increase in the bands. However, for allcurrencies, the credibility measured by the indicator proposed in thispaper has been eroded recently even with the widened bands.

Improving social measurements: The experience of the ESS first rounds in Spain

With the two aims of monitoring social change and improving social measurement, the European Social Survey is now closing its third round. This paper shows how the accumulated experience of the two first rounds has been used to validate the questionnaire, better adapt the sampling design to the country characteristics and efficiently commit fieldwork in Spain. For example, the dynamic character of the population nowadays makes necessary to estimated design effects at each round from the data of the previous round. The paper also demonstrates how, starting with a response rate of 52% at first round, a 66% response rate is achieved at the third round thanks to an extensive quality control conducted by the polling agency and the ESS national team and based on a detailed analysis of the non-response cases and the incidences reported by the interviewed in the contact form.

Teaching, research and service: Experience and opinions of accounting Spanish academics

Research, teaching and service are the main activities carried out in almost all European universities. Previous research, which has been mainlycentred in North-American universities, has found solid results indicatingthat research and teaching are not equally valued when deciding on facultypromotion. This conclusion creates a potential conflict for accountingacademics on how to distribute working time in order to accomplish personalcareer objectives. This paper presents the results of a survey realisedin two European countries: Spain and the United Kingdom, which intendedto explore the opinions and personal experience of accounting academicsworking in these countries. Specifically, we focus on the following issues:(i) The impact of teaching and service on time available for research;(ii) The integration of teaching and research; (iii) The perceived valueof teaching and research for career success and (iv) The interaction betweenprofessional accounting and accounting research. The results show thatboth in Spain and in the United Kingdom there is a conflict between teachingand research, which has its origin in the importance attached to researchactivities on promotion decisions. It also seems evident that so far, theconflict is being solved in favour of research in prejudice of teaching.

On the relevance of modeling volatility for pricing purposes

This paper presents a two-factor (Vasicek-CIR) model of the term structure of interest rates and develops its pricing and empirical properties. We assume that default free discount bond prices are determined by the time to maturity and two factors, the long-term interest rate and the spread. Assuming a certain process for both factors, a general bond pricing equation is derived and a closed-form expression for bond prices is obtained. Empirical evidence of the model's performance in comparisson with a double Vasicek model is presented. The main conclusion is that the modeling of the volatility in the long-term rate process can help (in a large amount) to fit the observed data can improve - in a reasonable quantity - the prediction of the future movements in the medium- and long-term interest rates. However, for shorter maturities, it is shown that the pricing errors are, basically, negligible and it is not so clear which is the best model to be used.

Pitfalls in the modeling of forward-looking price setting and investment decisions

The present paper makes progress in explaining the role of capital for inflation and output dynamics. We followWoodford (2003, Ch. 5) in assuming Calvo pricing combined with a convex capital adjustment cost at the firm level. Our main result is that capital accumulation affects inflation dynamics primarily through its impact on the marginal cost. This mechanism is much simpler than the one implied by the analysis in Woodford's text. The reason is that his analysis suffers from a conceptual mistake, as we show. The latter obscures the economic mechanism through which capital affects inflation and output dynamics in the Calvo model, as discussed in Woodford (2004).

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.

Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

What risks do people perceive in everyday life? A perspective gained from the experience sampling method (ESM)

The experiential sampling method (ESM) was used to collect data from 74 parttimestudents who described and assessed the risks involved in their current activitieswhen interrupted at random moments by text messages. The major categories ofperceived risk were short-term in nature and involved loss of time or materials relatedto work and physical damage (e.g., from transportation). Using techniques of multilevelanalysis, we demonstrate effects of gender, emotional state, and types of risk onassessments of risk. Specifically, females do not differ from males in assessing thepotential severity of risks but they see these as more likely to occur. Also, participantsassessed risks to be lower when in more positive self-reported emotional states. Wefurther demonstrate the potential of ESM by showing that risk assessments associatedwith current actions exceed those made retrospectively. We conclude by notingadvantages and disadvantages of ESM for collecting data about risk perceptions.

Single mothers and incentives to work: The French experience

This paper analyzes the effect of the 1998 reform of the French single parents allowanceon the labor supply of single mothers with very young children. The reform aimed atencouraging participation by allowing eligible single parents to accumulate benefits andlabor earnings for a limited period of time. Using data from the French EmploymentSurvey, the analysis shows that single mothers affected by the reform had experienced asignificant increase in their employment rate four years after the reform wasimplemented. During the same period, the employment rate of married mothers withyoung children did not experience a significant change, suggesting that at least part ofthe increase was a consequence of the reform. These results provide some evidence thatbenefit schedules that provide financial incentives to work can have significant effectsin getting single moms back to work, even in the presence of very young children.

El Advergaming en el digital signage: actores que determinan la obtención del "flow experience" de acuerdo a la ubicación de un dispositivo de emisión de contenido digital, dinámico e interactivo con videojuegos de marca

En la recerca d’eines que suposen la interactivitat com a punt clau en el model de comunicació, la present investi- gació aborda l’ús de videojocs amb contingut publicitari o “advergaming” com a punt central d’estudi i pretén es- tablir els factors que determinen una experiència de joc òptima a través de l’ús de pantalles digitals com a mitjà difusor d’aquest tipus de contingut. Parlarem de “flow experience” o teoria de la psicologia po- sitiva segons el seu creador i precursor Mihály Csíkszent- mihályi, i serà la perspectiva des de la qual pretenem desenvolupar aquest estudi, entenent el “flow experience” com l’estat òptim o nivell més alt d’experiència d’usuari que es pot assolir durant una activitat

Individual Strategies for Different Learners

Aquest treball fa un repàs a les diferents teories relacionades amb el camp d’estudi de les estratègies d’aprenentatge de segones llengües i respon a preguntes de recerca relacionades amb la freqüència d’ús de les estratègies i la relació amb les diferències individuals. La primera part és una introducció on s’hi plantegen les preguntes de recerca en les quals es basa el treball. La segona part, consisteix en un resum de les teories relacionades amb el tema de les estratègies d’estudi de segones llengües, i una posada en comú d’aquestes per mostrar les dificultats que hi ha per trobar consens en quant a la identificació i classificació de les estratègies. La tercera part, presenta la metodologia utilitzada per a la recollida de dades per tal de contestar les preguntes de recerca. En la quarta part es desenvolupa la recerca duta a terme; i finalment es presenten les conclusions extretes de cada pregunta de recerca plantejada.