Measurement with Some Theory: a New Approach to Evaluate Business Cycle Models

We propose a method to evaluate cyclical models which does not require knowledge of the DGP and the exact empirical specification of the aggregate decision rules. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks and others to evaluate the model or contrast sub-models. The approach has good size and excellent power properties, even in small samples. We show how to examine the validity of a class of models, sort out the relevance of certain frictions, evaluate the importance of an added feature, and indirectly estimate structural parameters.

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

Deciding the sale of a life policy in the viatical market: Implications on individual welfare

[cat] En aquest article, es presenta un model econòmic que permet determinar la venda o no d'una pòlissa de vida (total o en part) per part d'un assegurat malalt terminal en el mercat dels viatical settlements. Aquest mercat va aparèixer a finals de la dècada dels 80 a conseqüència de l'epidèmia de la SIDA. Actualment, representa una part del mercat dels life settlements. Les pòlisses que es comercialitzen en el mercat dels viaticals són aquelles on l'assegurat és malalt terminal amb una esperança de vida de dos anys o menys. El model és discret i considera només dos períodes (anys), ja que aquesta és la vida residual màxima que contempla el mercat. L'agent posseix una riquesa inicial que ha de repartir entre consum i herència. S'introdueix en primer lloc la funció d'utilitat esperada del decisor i, utilitzant programació dinàmica, es dedueix l'estratègia que reporta una utilitat més gran (no vendre/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment zero/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment ú). L'òptim depèn del preu de la pòlissa venuda i de paràmetres personals de l'individu. Es troba una expressió analítica per l'estratègia òptima i es realitza un anàlisi de sensibilitat.

A territorial model of commuting in Catalonia, 1986-1996

Commuting consists in the fact that an important fraction of workers in developed countries do not reside close to their workplaces but at long distances from them, so they have to travel to their jobs and then back home daily. Although most workers hold a job in the same municipality where they live or in a neighbouring one, an important fraction of workers face long daily trips to get to their workplace and then back home.Even if we divide Catalonia (Spain) in small aggregations of municipalities, trying to make them as close to local labour markets as possible, we will find out that some of them have a positive commuting balance, attracting many workers from other areas and providing local jobs for almost all their resident workers. On the other side, other zones seem to be mostly residential, so an important fraction of their resident workers hold jobs in different local labour markets. Which variables influence an area¿s role as an attraction pole or a residential zone? In previous papers (Artís et al, 1998a, 2000; Romaní, 1999) we have brought out the main individual variables that influence commuting by analysing a sample of Catalan workers and their commuting decisions. In this paper we perform an analysis of the territorial variables that influence commuting, using data for aggregate commuting flows in Catalonia from the 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses.These variables influence commuting in two different ways: a zone with a dense, welldeveloped economical structure will have a high density of jobs. Work demand cannot be fulfilled with resident workers, so it spills over local boundaries. On the other side, this economical activity has a series of side-effects like pollution, congestion or high land prices which make these areas less desirable to live in. Workers who can afford it may prefer to live in less populated, less congested zones, where they can find cheaper land, larger homes and a better quality of life. The penalty of this decision is an increased commuting time. Our aim in this paper is to highlight the influence of local economical structure and amenities endowment in the workplace-residence location decision. A place-to-place logit commuting models is estimated for 1991 and 1996 in order to find the economical and amenities variables with higher influence in commuting decisions. From these models, we can outline a first approximation to the evolution of these variables in the 1986-1996 period. Data have been obtained from aggregate flow travel-matrix from the 1986, 1991 and 1996 Spanish Population Censuses

Sequential decisions in allocation problems

[eng] In the context of cooperative TU-games, and given an order of players, we consider the problem of distributing the worth of the grand coalition as a sequentia decision problem. In each step of process, upper and lower bounds for the payoff of the players are required related to successive reduced games. Sequentially compatible payoffs are defined as those allocation vectors that meet these recursive bounds. The core of the game is reinterpreted as a set of sequentally compatible payoffs when the Davis-Maschler reduced game is considered (Th.1). Independently of the reduction, the core turns out to be the intersections of the family of the sets of sequentially compatible payoffs corresponding to the different possible orderings (Th.2), so it is in some sense order-independent. Finally, we analyze advantagenous properties for the first player

Critical behavior of a system with orientational and positional degrees of freedom: A Monte Carlo simulation study

The critical behavior of a system constituted by molecules with a preferred symmetry axis is studied by means of a Monte Carlo simulation of a simplified two-dimensional model. The system exhibits two phase transitions, associated with the vanishing of the positional order of the center of mass of the molecules and with the orientational order of the symmetry axis. The evolution of the order parameters and the specific heat is also studied. The transition associated with the positional degrees of freedom is found to change from a second-order to a first-order behavior when the two phase transitions are close enough, due to the coupling with the orientational degrees of freedom. This fact is qualitatively compared with similar results found in pure liquid crystals and liquid-crystal mixtures.

Topologies for poin distributions

The concepts of void and cluster for an arbitrary point distribution in a domain D are defined and characterized by some parameters such as volume, density, number of points belonging to them, shape, etc. After assigning a weight to each void and clusterwhich is a function of its characteristicsthe concept of distance between two point configurations S1 and S2 in D is introduced, both with and without the help of a lattice in the domain D. This defines a topology for the point distributions in D, which is different for the different characterizations of the voids and clusters.

Sequential decisions in allocation problems

[eng] In the context of cooperative TU-games, and given an order of players, we consider the problem of distributing the worth of the grand coalition as a sequentia decision problem. In each step of process, upper and lower bounds for the payoff of the players are required related to successive reduced games. Sequentially compatible payoffs are defined as those allocation vectors that meet these recursive bounds. The core of the game is reinterpreted as a set of sequentally compatible payoffs when the Davis-Maschler reduced game is considered (Th.1). Independently of the reduction, the core turns out to be the intersections of the family of the sets of sequentially compatible payoffs corresponding to the different possible orderings (Th.2), so it is in some sense order-independent. Finally, we analyze advantagenous properties for the first player

Deciding the sale of a life policy in the viatical market: Implications on individual welfare

[cat] En aquest article, es presenta un model econòmic que permet determinar la venda o no d'una pòlissa de vida (total o en part) per part d'un assegurat malalt terminal en el mercat dels viatical settlements. Aquest mercat va aparèixer a finals de la dècada dels 80 a conseqüència de l'epidèmia de la SIDA. Actualment, representa una part del mercat dels life settlements. Les pòlisses que es comercialitzen en el mercat dels viaticals són aquelles on l'assegurat és malalt terminal amb una esperança de vida de dos anys o menys. El model és discret i considera només dos períodes (anys), ja que aquesta és la vida residual màxima que contempla el mercat. L'agent posseix una riquesa inicial que ha de repartir entre consum i herència. S'introdueix en primer lloc la funció d'utilitat esperada del decisor i, utilitzant programació dinàmica, es dedueix l'estratègia que reporta una utilitat més gran (no vendre/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment zero/vendre (en part) la pòlissa en el moment ú). L'òptim depèn del preu de la pòlissa venuda i de paràmetres personals de l'individu. Es troba una expressió analítica per l'estratègia òptima i es realitza un anàlisi de sensibilitat.

Cuatro casos, cuatro historias de uso educativo de las TIC

[spa] Este informe presenta parte de los procesos y los resultados del proyecto de I+D+I: Políticas y prácticas en torno a las TIC en la enseñanza obligatoria: Implicaciones para la innovación y la mejora, parcialmente financiado por Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación. SEJ2007-67562. Recoge los cuatro estudios de caso llevados a cabo en dos Institutos de Enseñanza Secundaria Obligatoria y dos centros de educación primaria de Cataluña, que nos han posibilitado elucidar el impacto de las políticas de uso de las TIC y de otras iniciativas políticas para favorecer la innovación y la mejora en cada centro, prestando especial atención a: (a) los temas organizativos relacionados con el tiempo y el espacio; (b) el desarrollo del currículum en el centro (visiones sobre el conocimiento, el aprendizaje, el papel del alumnado y el profesorado, el lugar de las TIC, etc.); (c) las condiciones de trabajo del profesorado (acceso a formación, espacios y prácticas de colaboración; desarrollo profesional); (d) los resultados del aprendizaje (valor intelectual, social y personal de lo aprendido; capacidad de transferencia para seguir aprendiendo

Fifth-order cyclicity and organic matter contents relationship (Lower Eocene, Pyrenees)

The Upper Limestone Member of the Corones Formation of the Spanish Pyrenees consists of various units (Lower and Upper Foraminifera Units, Shale Unit, Cherty-ostracode Unit, Ostracode Unit and Chara-ostracode Unit) and offers strong facies and lateral thickness (20 to 80 m) variations. Detailed facies analyses, fifth-order cycles and organic geochemical determinations in the central domain of the Corones platform carbonates (Cherty-ostracode Unit), lower Eocene in age, were carried out to establish a case of close relationship between variations in organic matter productivity and cyclicity with annual period. The Cherty-ostracode Unit displays a continuous and pervasive fifth-order cyclicity, represented by 5 cycles. Each cycle consists of a lower part (mollusc facies) and an upper part (laminated ostracode facies). The calculated fifth-order cycle period ranges from about 17,000 to 28,000 years, which falls within the Milankovitch Band. Variations in organic matter content related to these carbonate cycles have been established. The lower mollusc facies members show a low organic carbon content and Hydrogen Index (HI) below 0.6% in weight and 261, respectively. By contrast, the upper laminated ostracode facies members show high organic carbon contents (up to 2% in weight) and high HI (between 164 and 373), and are also characterized by important silicification processes (the content in chert is up to 30%). The organic geochemistry resulting from these organic rich levels reflects a contribution of algal marine input.

Cuatro casos, cuatro historias de uso educativo de las TIC

[spa] Este informe presenta parte de los procesos y los resultados del proyecto de I+D+I: Políticas y prácticas en torno a las TIC en la enseñanza obligatoria: Implicaciones para la innovación y la mejora, parcialmente financiado por Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación. SEJ2007-67562. Recoge los cuatro estudios de caso llevados a cabo en dos Institutos de Enseñanza Secundaria Obligatoria y dos centros de educación primaria de Cataluña, que nos han posibilitado elucidar el impacto de las políticas de uso de las TIC y de otras iniciativas políticas para favorecer la innovación y la mejora en cada centro, prestando especial atención a: (a) los temas organizativos relacionados con el tiempo y el espacio; (b) el desarrollo del currículum en el centro (visiones sobre el conocimiento, el aprendizaje, el papel del alumnado y el profesorado, el lugar de las TIC, etc.); (c) las condiciones de trabajo del profesorado (acceso a formación, espacios y prácticas de colaboración; desarrollo profesional); (d) los resultados del aprendizaje (valor intelectual, social y personal de lo aprendido; capacidad de transferencia para seguir aprendiendo

Estudi sociològic del lleure al món rural de Catalunya i Guatemala. L'oci a la població de 50 a 70 anys de Malla i San Juan la Laguna, semblances i diferències

L’estudi que es presenta a continuació té l’objectiu de comprendre quina és la realitat ociosa de les persones de 50 a 70 anys als municipis de Malla (Catalunya, Espanya) i de San Juan la Laguna (Sololá, Guatemala) des de la perspectiva humanista en termes de concepció i pràctica, i veure quina és la influència i la força que prenen les característiques de la societat en la qual es desenvolupa. Per tal de dur-ho a terme, primerament s’ha realitzat un procés d’aproximació respecte el concepte de l’oci, i una recerca concreta vers l’oci humanista. A partir d’aquí, s’ha fet l’estudi amb una mostra formada per deu persones del municipi de Malla i deu membres de San Juan la Laguna que es troben entre els 50 i 70 anys, i amb unes condicions econòmiques i uns estils de vida diferents. Per tal de realitzar la recerca i l’anàlisi de l’oci humanista en els contexts de Malla i San Juan la Laguna s’ha emprat una metodologia qualitativa, i s’ha utilitzat l’instrument corresponent a l’entrevista. Aquesta ha estat elaborada prenent com a marc de referència la metodologia de la Grounded Theory (Glaser y Strauss, 1967). El projecte també compte amb una vessant d’etnografia. Els resultats que s’han obtingut demostren que hi ha una presència significativa de l’oci humanista en els contexts analitzats, però que en el cas de San Juan la Laguna aquest esdevé un element en construcció.

Estudi comparatiu per ala millora dels resultatsdels traductorsautomàtics de l’empresaAutomaticTrans

Aquest treball pretén millorar els resultats dels traductors automàtics de l’empresa AutomaticTrans i la traducció a l’agència de notícies EuropaPress mitjançant la comparació d’un corpus de notícies en castellà amb la corresponent traducció al català per dos traductors automàtics: l’ATS1, utilitzat per EuropaPress, i l’ATS4, l’última versió del traductor

Minimal requirements for parameters to be used for the development of predictive models for microbial source tracking. The example of the pair somatic coliphages and phages infecting Bacteroides

Several methods and approaches for measuring parameters to determine fecal sources of pollution in water have been developed in recent years. No single microbial or chemical parameter has proved sufficient to determine the source of fecal pollution. Combinations of parameters involving at least one discriminating indicator and one universal fecal indicator offer the most promising solutions for qualitative and quantitative analyses. The universal (nondiscriminating) fecal indicator provides quantitative information regarding the fecal load. The discriminating indicator contributes to the identification of a specific source. The relative values of the parameters derived from both kinds of indicators could provide information regarding the contribution to the total fecal load from each origin. It is also essential that both parameters characteristically persist in the environment for similar periods. Numerical analysis, such as inductive learning methods, could be used to select the most suitable and the lowest number of parameters to develop predictive models. These combinations of parameters provide information on factors affecting the models, such as dilution, specific types of animal source, persistence of microbial tracers, and complex mixtures from different sources. The combined use of the enumeration of somatic coliphages and the enumeration of Bacteroides-phages using different host specific strains (one from humans and another from pigs), both selected using the suggested approach, provides a feasible model for quantitative and qualitative analyses of fecal source identification.