Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe

The advent of the European Union has decreased the diversification benefits available from country based equity market indices in the region. This paper measures the increase in stock integration between the three largest new EU members (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland who joined in May 2004) and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated in a single VAR model by embedding smooth transition conditional correlation models with fat tails, spillovers, volatility clustering, and asymmetric volatility effects. At the country market index level all three Eastern European markets show a considerable increase in correlations in 2006. At the industry level the dates and transition periods for the correlations differ, and the correlations are lower although also increasing. The results show that sectoral indices in Eastern European markets may provide larger diversification opportunities than the aggregate market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; Sectoral correlations; New EU Members

Bargaining one-dimensional policies and the efficiency of super majority rules

We consider negotiations selecting one-dimensional policies. Individuals have single-peaked preferences, and they are impatient. Decisions arise from a bargaining game with random proposers and (super) majority approval, ranging from the simple majority up to unanimity. The existence and uniqueness of stationary subgame perfect equilibrium is established, and its explicit characterization provided. We supply an explicit formula to determine the unique alternative that prevails, as impatience vanishes, for each majority. As an application, we examine the efficiency of majority rules. For symmetric distributions of peaks unanimity is the unanimously preferred majority rule. For asymmetric populations rules maximizing social surplus are characterized.

Memory in contracts: the experience of the EBRD (1991-2003)

The objective of this paper is to identify the role of memory as a screening device in repeated contracts with asymmetric information in financial intermediation. We use an original dataset from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. We propose a simple empirical method to capture the role of memory using the client's reputation. Our results unambiguously isolate the dominant effect of memory on the bank's lending decisions over market factors in the case of established clients.

Strategic mass killings

Since World War II there have been about fifty episodes of large-scale mass killings of civilians and massive forced displacements. They were usually meticulously planned and independent of military goals. We provide a model where conflict onset, conflict intensity and the decision to commit mass killings are all endogenous, with two main goals: (1) to identify the key variables and situations that make mass killings more likely to occur; and (2) to distinguish conditions under which mass killings and military conflict intensity reinforce each other from situations where they are substitute modes of strategic violence. We predict that mass killings are most likely in societies with large natural resources, significant proportionality constraints for rent sharing, low productivity and low state capacity. Further, massacres are more likely in a civil than in an interstate war, as in the latter group sizes matter less for future rents. In non polarized societies there are asymmetric equilibria with only the larger group wanting to engage in massacres. In such settings the smaller group compensates for this by fighting harder in the first place. In this case we can talk of mass killings and fighting efforts to be substitutes. In contrast, in polarized societies either both or none of the groups can be ready to do mass killings in case of victory. Under the "shadow of mass killings" groups fight harder. Hence, in this case massacres and fighting are complements. We also present novel empirical results on the role of natural resources in mass killings and on what kinds of ethnic groups are most likely to be victimized in massacres and forced resettlements, using group level panel data.

Public and private learning from prices, strategic substitutability and complementarity, and equilibrium multiplicity

We study a general static noisy rational expectations model where investors have private information about asset payoffs, with common and private components, and about their own exposure to an aggregate risk factor, and derive conditions for existence and uniqueness (or multiplicity) of equilibria. We find that a main driver of the characterization of equilibria is whether the actions of investors are strategic substitutes or complements. This latter property in turn is driven by the strength of a private learning channel from prices, arising from the multidimensional sources of asymmetric information, in relation to the usual public learning channel. When the private learning channel is strong (weak) in relation to the public we have strong (weak) strategic complementarity in actions and potentially multiple (unique) equilibria. The results enable a precise characterization of whether information acquisition decisions are strategic substitutes or complements. We find that the strategic substitutability in information acquisition result obtained in Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is robust. JEL Classification: D82, D83, G14 Keywords: Rational expectations equilibrium, asymmetric information, risk exposure, hedging, supply information, information acquisition.

Elaboració de membranes de fibra buida modificades amb nanopartícules metàl·liques per aplicacions catalítiques

Investigación producida a partir de una estancia en la Université Paul Sabatier, Toulouse III - CNRS, entre 2007 y 2009. Durante los últimos años la investigación centrada en nuevos materiales de tamaño nanoscòpico (nanopartículas, quantum dots, nanotubos de carbono,...) ha experimentado un crecimiento considerable debido a las especiales propiedades de los "nanoobjetos" con respecto a magnetismo, catálisis, conductividad eléctrica, etc ... Sin embargo, hoy en día todavía existen pocas aplicaciones de las nanopartículas en temas medioambientales. Uno de los motivos de esta situación es la posible toxicidad de los nanoobjetos, pero existe también una dificultad tecnológica dado que las nanopartículas tienden a agregarse y es muy difícil manipularlas sin que pierdan sus propiedades especiales. Así, aunque la preparación de materiales catalíticos nanoestructurados es muy interesante, es necesario definir nuevas estrategias para prepararlos. Este proyecto de investigación tiene como objetivo principal la preparación de nuevas membranas catalíticas con nanopartículas metálicas en el interior para aplicaciones de tratamiento de agua. La innovación principal de este proyecto consiste en que las nanopartículas no son introducidas en la matriz polimérica una vez preformadas sino que se hacen crecer en el interior de la matriz polimérica mediante una síntesis intermatricial. El único requisito es que la matriz polimérica contenga grupos funcionales capaces de interaccionar con los precursores de las nanopartículas. Una vez finalizado el proyecto se puede afirmar que se han logrado parte de los objetivos planteados inicialmente. Concreamente ha quedado demostrado que se pueden sintetizar nanopartículas metálicas de metales nobles (platino y paladio) en membranas de fibra hueca de micro- y ultrafiltración siguiendo dos metodologías diferentes: modificación fotoquímica de polímeros y deposición de multicapas de polielectrolitos. Los nuevos materiales son efectivos en la catálisis de reducción de un compuesto modelo (4-nitrofenol con borohidruro de sodio) y, en general, los resultados han sido satisfactorios. Sin embargo, se ha puesto de manifiesto que el uso de un reactivo que genera hidrógeno gas en contacto con la solución acuosa dificulta enormemente la implementación de la reacción catalítica al ser el medio de la membrana una matriz porosa. Así, como conclusión principal se puede decir que se han encontrado las limitaciones de esta aproximación y se sugieren dos posibilidades de continuidad: la utilización de las membranas sintetizadas en contactores gas-líquido o bien el estudio y optimización del sistema de membrana en configuración de membranas planas, un objetivo más asequible dada su menor complejidad. Esta investigación se ha realizado en el seno del “Laboratoire de Génie Chimique” de Toulouse y del Departamento de Química de la Michigan State University y ha sido posible gracias a un proyecto financiado por la “Agence National pour la Recherce” y al programa PERMEANT entre el CNRS y la NSF.

Political Competition in Hard Times

This paper analyzes a spatial model of political competition between two policy- motivated parties in hard times of crisis. Hard times are modeled in terms of policy- making costs carried by a newly elected party. The results predict policy divergence in equilibrium. If the ideological preferences of parties are quite diverse and extreme, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce symmetric platforms and each party wins with probability one half. If one party is extreme while the other is more moderate, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce asymmetric platforms. If the preferred policies of the parties are not very distinct, there are two equilibria with asymmetric platforms. An important property of equilibrium with asymmetric platforms is that a winning party necessarily announces its most preferred policy as a platform. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: Spatial model; Political competition; Two-party system; Policy-motivated parties; Hard times; Crisis.

Estudis estructurals dels canvis conformacionals de les E3 ubiquitin lligases per RMN

L'estudi a nivell molecular de la ruta de senyalització activada per TGF-B té un impacte notable en el panorama actual donada la seva implicació en processos autoimmunitaris i carcinogènics. D'altra banda, l'elucidació a nivell estructural dels mecanismes moleculars que permeten a les ubiquitin lligases de tipus E3 marcar específicament llurs dianes per a la degradació proteosòmica - entre d'altres - resulta fonamental donada la seva importància pel que fa al control sobre el turnover proteic a nivell intracel•lular. En aquest projecte es pretén elucidar els mecanismes d'activació i catlàlisi de les ubiquitin lligases E3 tipus HECT Smurf1 i Nedd4L al mateix temps que se n'estudia la implicació en la regulació dels agents missatgers de la ruta del TGF-B. Així, la tasca es divideix en tres sub-projectes els quals se centren en a) l'estudi de la interacció d'aquestes lligases amb llurs dianes; b) l'elucidació del mecanisme d'activació i c) del de catàlisi d'aquests enzims. Per tal d'assolir aquests objectius ens servim principalment dels avantatges que ens aporta la Ressonància Magnètica Nuclear i altres tècniques biofísiques, principalment la ITC. Durant el temps que he gaudit de la beca FI, m'he centrat principalment en la preparació de pèptids per SPPS, llur purificació per HPLC i caracterització per MS i RMN. Aquests pèptids representen diferents patrons de fosforilació de certes dianes de les lligases esmentades, de manera que han estat emprats per a l'estudi d'interaccions proteïna-proteïna per ITC i RMN. M'he iniciat doncs en l'ús d'aquestes tècniques. D'altra banda, també he preparat mostres protèiques mitjançant l'ús de sistemes d'expressió bacterians basats en E.coli, incloent l'amplificació i clonació del gen que codifica per la proteïna d'interés així com la seva expressió, purificació i caracterització per MS i RMN.