Priors about observables in vector autoregressions

Standard practice in Bayesian VARs is to formulate priors on the autoregressive parameters, but economists and policy makers actually have priors about the behavior of observable variables. We show how this kind of prior can be used in a VAR under strict probability theory principles. We state the inverse problem to be solved and we propose a numerical algorithm that works well in practical situations with a very large number of parameters. We prove various convergence theorems for the algorithm. As an application, we first show that the results in Christiano et al. (1999) are very sensitive to the introduction of various priors that are widely used. These priors turn out to be associated with undesirable priors on observables. But an empirical prior on observables helps clarify the relevance of these estimates: we find much higher persistence of output responses to monetary policy shocks than the one reported in Christiano et al. (1999) and a significantly larger total effect.

CAV2 vector gene transfer into central nervious System

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada al Institut de Génétique Moléculaire de Montpellier, França, entre 2010 i 2012. En aquest projecte s’ha avaluat les avantatges dels vectors adenovirals canins tipus 2 (CAV2) com a vectors de transferència gènica al sistema nerviós central (SNC) en un model primat no-humà i en un model caní del síndrome de Sly (mucopolisacaridosis tipus 7, MPS VII), malaltia monogènica que cursa amb neurodegeneració. En una primera part del projecte s’ha avaluat la biodistribució, l’eficàcia i la durada de l’expressió del transgen en un model primat no humà, (Microcebus murinus). Com ha vector s’ha utilitzat un CAV2 de primera generació que expressa la proteïna verda fluorescent (CAVGFP). Els resultats aportats en aquesta memòria demostren que en primats no humans, com en d’altres espècies testades anteriorment per l’equip de l’EJ Kremer, la injecció intracerebral de CAV2 resulta en una extensa transducció del SNC, siguent les neurones i els precursors neuronals les cèl•lules preferencialment transduïdes. Els vectors canins, servint-se de vesícules intracel•lulars són transportats, majoritàriament, des de les sinapsis cap al soma neuronal, aquest transport intracel•lular permet una extensa transducció del SNC a partir d’una única injecció intracerebral dels vectors virals. En una segona part d’aquest projecte s’ha avaluat l’ús terapèutic dels CAV2. S’ha injectat un vector helper-dependent que expressa el gen la b-glucuronidasa i el gen de la proteïna verda fluorescent (HD-RIGIE), en el SNC del model caní del síndrome de Sly (MPS VII). La biodistribució i la eficàcia terapèutica han estat avaluades. Els nivells d’activitat enzimàtica en animals malalts injectats amb el vector terapèutic va arribar a valors similars als dels animals no afectes. A més a més s’ha observat una reducció en la quantitat dels GAGs acumulats en les cèl•lules dels animals malalts tractats amb el vector terapèutic, demostrant la potencialitat terapèutica dels CAV2 per a malalties que afecten al SNC. Els resultats aportats en aquest treball ens permeten dir que els CAV2 són unes bones eines terapèutiques per al tractament de malalties que afecten al SNC.

Generation of mouse-induced pluripotent stem cells by transient expression of a single nonviral polycistronic vector

Induced pluripotent stem (iPS) cells have generated keen interestdue to their potential use in regenerative medicine. They havebeen obtained from various cell types of both mice and humans byexogenous delivery of different combinations of Oct4, Sox2, Klf4,c-Myc, Nanog, and Lin28. The delivery of these transcription factorshas mostly entailed the use of integrating viral vectors (retrovirusesor lentiviruses), carrying the risk of both insertional mutagenesisand oncogenesis due to misexpression of these exogenousfactors. Therefore, obtaining iPS cells that do not carry integratedtransgene sequences is an important prerequisite for their eventualtherapeutic use. Here we report the generation of iPS cell linesfrom mouse embryonic fibroblasts with no evidence of integrationof the reprogramming vector in their genome, achieved by nucleofectionof a polycistronic construct coexpressing Oct4, Sox2, Klf4,and c-Myc

On codes, matroids, and secure multiparty computation from linear secret-sharing schemes

Error-correcting codes and matroids have been widely used in the study of ordinary secret sharing schemes. In this paper, the connections between codes, matroids, and a special class of secret sharing schemes, namely, multiplicative linear secret sharing schemes (LSSSs), are studied. Such schemes are known to enable multiparty computation protocols secure against general (nonthreshold) adversaries.Two open problems related to the complexity of multiplicative LSSSs are considered in this paper. The first one deals with strongly multiplicative LSSSs. As opposed to the case of multiplicative LSSSs, it is not known whether there is an efficient method to transform an LSSS into a strongly multiplicative LSSS for the same access structure with a polynomial increase of the complexity. A property of strongly multiplicative LSSSs that could be useful in solving this problem is proved. Namely, using a suitable generalization of the well-known Berlekamp–Welch decoder, it is shown that all strongly multiplicative LSSSs enable efficient reconstruction of a shared secret in the presence of malicious faults. The second one is to characterize the access structures of ideal multiplicative LSSSs. Specifically, the considered open problem is to determine whether all self-dual vector space access structures are in this situation. By the aforementioned connection, this in fact constitutes an open problem about matroid theory, since it can be restated in terms of representability of identically self-dual matroids by self-dual codes. A new concept is introduced, the flat-partition, that provides a useful classification of identically self-dual matroids. Uniform identically self-dual matroids, which are known to be representable by self-dual codes, form one of the classes. It is proved that this property also holds for the family of matroids that, in a natural way, is the next class in the above classification: the identically self-dual bipartite matroids.

On fast-decodable space-time block codes

We focus on full-rate, fast-decodable space–time block codes (STBCs) for 2 x 2 and 4 x 2 multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmission. We first derive conditions and design criteria for reduced-complexity maximum-likelihood (ML) decodable 2 x 2 STBCs, and we apply them to two families of codes that were recently discovered. Next, we derive a novel reduced-complexity 4 x 2 STBC, and show that it outperforms all previously known codes with certain constellations.

On high-rate full-diversity 2x2 space-time codes with low-complexity optimum detection

The 2×2 MIMO profiles included in Mobile WiMAX specifications are Alamouti’s space-time code (STC) fortransmit diversity and spatial multiplexing (SM). The former hasfull diversity and the latter has full rate, but neither of them hasboth of these desired features. An alternative 2×2 STC, which is both full rate and full diversity, is the Golden code. It is the best known 2×2 STC, but it has a high decoding complexity. Recently, the attention was turned to the decoder complexity, this issue wasincluded in the STC design criteria, and different STCs wereproposed. In this paper, we first present a full-rate full-diversity2×2 STC design leading to substantially lower complexity ofthe optimum detector compared to the Golden code with only a slight performance loss. We provide the general optimized form of this STC and show that this scheme achieves the diversitymultiplexing frontier for square QAM signal constellations. Then, we present a variant of the proposed STC, which provides a further decrease in the detection complexity with a rate reduction of 25% and show that this provides an interesting trade-off between the Alamouti scheme and SM.

A comparison of full-rate full-diversity 2x2 space-time codes for WiMAX systems

Multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) techniques have become an essential part of broadband wireless communications systems. For example, the recently developed IEEE 802.16e specifications for broadband wireless access include three MIMOprofiles employing 2×2 space-time codes (STCs), and two of these MIMO schemes are mandatory on the downlink of Mobile WiMAX systems. One of these has full rate, and the other has full diversity, but neither of them has both of the desired features. The third profile, namely, Matrix C, which is not mandatory, is both a full rate and a full diversity code, but it has a high decoder complexity. Recently, the attention was turned to the decodercomplexity issue and including this in the design criteria, several full-rate STCs were proposed as alternatives to Matrix C. In this paper, we review these different alternatives and compare them to Matrix C in terms of performances and the correspondingreceiver complexities.

Silver space-time trellis-coded modulation

Silver Code (SilC) was originally discovered in [1–4] for 2×2 multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) transmission. It has non-vanishing minimum determinant 1/7, slightly lower than Golden code, but is fast-decodable, i.e., it allows reduced-complexity maximum likelihood decoding [5–7]. In this paper, we present a multidimensional trellis-coded modulation scheme for MIMO systems [11] based on set partitioning of the Silver Code, named Silver Space-Time Trellis Coded Modulation (SST-TCM). This lattice set partitioning is designed specifically to increase the minimum determinant. The branches of the outer trellis code are labeled with these partitions. Viterbi algorithm is applied for trellis decoding, while the branch metrics are computed by using a sphere-decoding algorithm. It is shown that the proposed SST-TCM performs very closely to the Golden Space-Time Trellis Coded Modulation (GST-TCM) scheme, yetwith a much reduced decoding complexity thanks to its fast-decoding property.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

Quotient spaces of boundedly rational types

By identifying types whose low-order beliefs up to level li about the state of nature coincide, weobtain quotient type spaces that are typically smaller than the original ones, preserve basic topologicalproperties, and allow standard equilibrium analysis even under bounded reasoning. Our Bayesian Nash(li; l-i)-equilibria capture players inability to distinguish types belonging to the same equivalence class.The case with uncertainty about the vector of levels (li; l-i) is also analyzed. Two examples illustratethe constructions.

New ideas need new space

We develop a setting with weak intellectual property rights, where firms' boundaries, location and knowledge spillovers are endogenous. We have two main results. The first one is that, if communication costs increase with distance, entrepreneurs concerned about information leakage have a benefit from locating away from the industry center: distance is an obstacle to collusive trades between members andnon-members. The second result is that we identify a trade-off for the entrepreneur between owning a facility (controlling all its characteristics) and sharing a facility with a {\it non-member} (an agent not involved in production), therefore losing control over some of its characteristics. We focus on ``location" as the relevant characteristic of the facility, but location can be used as a spatial metaphor for other relevant characteristics of the facility. For theentrepreneur, sharing the facility with non-members implies that the latter, as co-owners, know the location (even if they do not have access to it). Knowledge of the location for the co-owners facilitates collusion with employees, what increases leakage. The model yields a benefit for new plants from spatial dispersion (locating at the periphery of the industry), particularly so for new plants of new firms.We relate this result with recent empirical findings on the dynamics of industry location.

A dynamic choice model of hybrid behavior in the attribute-space

This paper presents a dynamic choice model in the attributespace considering rational consumers that discount the future. In lightof the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the model isfurther extended by considering a utility function that allows for thedifferent types of behavior described in the literature: pure inertia,pure variety seeking and hybrid. The model presents a stationaryconsumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buysone product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer buys severalproducts simultane-ously. Under the inverted-U marginal utilityassumption, the consumer behaves inertial among the existing brands forseveral periods, and eventually, once the stationary levels areapproached, the consumer turns to a variety-seeking behavior. An empiricalanalysis is run using a scanner database for fabric softener andsignificant evidence of hybrid behavior for most attributes is found,which supports the functional form considered in the theory.

Hybrid consumption paths in the attribute space: A model and application with scanner data

This paper presents and estimates a dynamic choice model in the attribute space considering rational consumers. In light of the evidence of several state-dependence patterns, the standard attribute-based model is extended by considering a general utility function where pure inertia and pure variety-seeking behaviors can be explained in the model as particular linear cases. The dynamics of the model are fully characterized by standard dynamic programming techniques. The model presents a stationary consumption pattern that can be inertial, where the consumer only buys one product, or a variety-seeking one, where the consumer shifts among varied products.We run some simulations to analyze the consumption paths out of the steady state. Underthe hybrid utility assumption, the consumer behaves inertially among the unfamiliar brandsfor several periods, eventually switching to a variety-seeking behavior when the stationary levels are approached. An empirical analysis is run using scanner databases for three different product categories: fabric softener, saltine cracker, and catsup. Non-linear specifications provide the best fit of the data, as hybrid functional forms are found in all the product categories for most attributes and segments. These results reveal the statistical superiority of the non-linear structure and confirm the gradual trend to seek variety as the level of familiarity with the purchased items increases.