Adapting football to the child: an application of the logistic regression model in observational mewthodology.

Logistic regression is included into the analysis techniques which are valid for observationalmethodology. However, its presence at the heart of thismethodology, and more specifically in physical activity and sports studies, is scarce. With a view to highlighting the possibilities this technique offers within the scope of observational methodology applied to physical activity and sports, an application of the logistic regression model is presented. The model is applied in the context of an observational design which aims to determine, from the analysis of use of the playing area, which football discipline (7 a side football, 9 a side football or 11 a side football) is best adapted to the child"s possibilities. A multiple logistic regression model can provide an effective prognosis regarding the probability of a move being successful (reaching the opposing goal area) depending on the sector in which the move commenced and the football discipline which is being played.

Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

A Robust Multiple Feature Approach To Endpoint Detection In Car Environment Based On Advanced Classifiers

In this paper we propose an endpoint detection system based on the use of several features extracted from each speech frame, followed by a robust classifier (i.e Adaboost and Bagging of decision trees, and a multilayer perceptron) and a finite state automata (FSA). We present results for four different classifiers. The FSA module consisted of a 4-state decision logic that filtered false alarms and false positives. We compare the use of four different classifiers in this task. The look ahead of the method that we propose was of 7 frames, which are the number of frames that maximized the accuracy of the system. The system was tested with real signals recorded inside a car, with signal to noise ratio that ranged from 6 dB to 30dB. Finally we present experimental results demonstrating that the system yields robust endpoint detection.

Partisan targeting of inter-governmental transfers & state interference in local elections: evidence from Spain

[spa] En este trabajo examinamos si, en la asignación de transferencias, los gobernantes regionales discriminan a favor de los gobiernos locales controlados por el mismo partido político, y si las perspectivas electorales de los gobiernos locales mejoran si están políticamente alineados con el gobierno regional. Con una nueva base de datos que considera 3.000 municipios españoles durante el período 2000-07 y un diseño de discontinuidad en la regresión, documentamos un efecto robusto de importante magnitud: en elecciones ajustadas, los municipios alineados con el gobierno regional reciben, en media, un 83% más de transferencias per cápita y su gobernante obtiene un 10% más de votos en las elecciones locales. También demostramos que el efecto de la alineación política es mayor: (i) si las elecciones regionales y locales se celebran el mismo día, (ii) en regiones donde las elecciones regionales son menos competidas, y (iii) en regiones con más recursos presupuestarios.

Partisan targeting of inter-governmental transfers & state interference in local elections: evidence from Spain

[spa] En este trabajo examinamos si, en la asignación de transferencias, los gobernantes regionales discriminan a favor de los gobiernos locales controlados por el mismo partido político, y si las perspectivas electorales de los gobiernos locales mejoran si están políticamente alineados con el gobierno regional. Con una nueva base de datos que considera 3.000 municipios españoles durante el período 2000-07 y un diseño de discontinuidad en la regresión, documentamos un efecto robusto de importante magnitud: en elecciones ajustadas, los municipios alineados con el gobierno regional reciben, en media, un 83% más de transferencias per cápita y su gobernante obtiene un 10% más de votos en las elecciones locales. También demostramos que el efecto de la alineación política es mayor: (i) si las elecciones regionales y locales se celebran el mismo día, (ii) en regiones donde las elecciones regionales son menos competidas, y (iii) en regiones con más recursos presupuestarios.

Robust Detection of Incumbents in Cognitive Radio Networks Using Groups

Cognitive radio is a wireless technology aimed at improvingthe efficiency use of the radio-electric spectrum, thus facilitating a reductionin the load on the free frequency bands. Cognitive radio networkscan scan the spectrum and adapt their parameters to operate in the unoccupiedbands. To avoid interfering with licensed users operating on a givenchannel, the networks need to be highly sensitive, which is achieved byusing cooperative sensing methods. Current cooperative sensing methodsare not robust enough against occasional or continuous attacks. This articleoutlines a Group Fusion method that takes into account the behavior ofusers over the short and long term. On fusing the data, the method is basedon giving more weight to user groups that are more unanimous in their decisions.Simulations have been performed in a dynamic environment withinterferences. Results prove that when attackers are present (both reiterativeor sporadic), the proposed Group Fusion method has superior sensingcapability than other methods.

A robust audio watermarking scheme based on MPEG 1 Layer 3 Compression

This paper describes an audio watermarking scheme based on lossy compression. The main idea is taken from an image watermarking approach where the JPEG compression algorithm is used to determine where and how the mark should be placed. Similarly, in the audio scheme suggested in this paper, an MPEG 1 Layer 3 algorithm is chosen for compression to determine the position of the mark bits and, thus, the psychoacoustic masking of the MPEG 1 Layer 3compression is implicitly used. This methodology provides with a high robustness degree against compression attacks. The suggested scheme is also shown to succeed against most of the StirMark benchmark attacks for audio.

Robust power allocation algorithms for MIMO OFDM systems with imperfect CSI

This paper presents a Bayesian approach to the design of transmit prefiltering matrices in closed-loop schemes robust to channel estimation errors. The algorithms are derived for a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) system. Two different optimizationcriteria are analyzed: the minimization of the mean square error and the minimization of the bit error rate. In both cases, the transmitter design is based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) of the conditional mean of the channel response, given the channel estimate. The performance of the proposed algorithms is analyzed,and their relationship with existing algorithms is indicated. As withother previously proposed solutions, the minimum bit error rate algorithmconverges to the open-loop transmission scheme for very poor CSI estimates.

Robust beamforming for interference rejection in mobile communications

The problem of robust beamformer design for mobile communicationsapplications in the presence of moving co-channel sources isaddressed. A generalization of the optimum beamformer based on a statisticalmodel accounting for source movement is proposed. The new methodis easily implemented and is shown to offer dramatic improvements overconventional optimum beamforming for moving sources under a varietyof operating conditions.

Reliable computation of robust response tori on the verge of breakdown

We prove the existence and local uniqueness of invariant tori on the verge of breakdown for two systems: the quasi-periodically driven logistic map and the quasi-periodically forced standard map. These systems exemplify two scenarios: the Heagy-Hammel route for the creation of strange non- chaotic attractors and the nonsmooth bifurcation of saddle invariant tori. Our proofs are computer- assisted and are based on a tailored version of the Newton-Kantorovich theorem. The proofs cannot be performed using classical perturbation theory because the two scenarios are very far from the perturbative regime, and fundamental hypotheses such as reducibility or hyperbolicity either do not hold or are very close to failing. Our proofs are based on a reliable computation of the invariant tori and a careful study of their dynamical properties, leading to the rigorous validation of the numerical results with our novel computational techniques.

Regression-based techniques for statistical decision making in single-case designs

The present study evaluates the performance of four methods for estimating regression coefficients used to make statistical decisions regarding intervention effectiveness in single-case designs. Ordinary least squares estimation is compared to two correction techniques dealing with general trend and one eliminating autocorrelation whenever it is present. Type I error rates and statistical power are studied for experimental conditions defined by the presence or absence of treatment effect (change in level or in slope), general trend, and serial dependence. The results show that empirical Type I error rates do not approximate the nominal ones in presence of autocorrelation or general trend when ordinary and generalized least squares are applied. The techniques controlling trend show lower false alarm rates, but prove to be insufficiently sensitive to existing treatment effects. Consequently, the use of the statistical significance of the regression coefficients for detecting treatment effects is not recommended for short data series.

The environmental effects of changing speed limits: a quantile regression approach

Two speed management policies were implemented in the metropolitan area of Barcelona aimed at reducing air pollution concentration levels. In 2008, the maximum speed limit was reduced to 80 km/h and, in 2009, a variable speed system was introduced on some metropolitan motorways. This paper evaluates whether such policies have been successful in promoting cleaner air, not only in terms of mean pollutant levels but also during high and low pollution episodes. We use a quantile regression approach for fixed effect panel data. We find that the variable speed system improves air quality with regard to the two pollutants considered here, being most effective when nitrogen oxide levels are not too low and when particulate matter concentrations are below extremely high levels. However, reducing the maximum speed limit from 120/100 km/h to 80 km/h has no effect – or even a slightly increasing effect –on the two pollutants, depending on the pollution scenario. Length: 32 pages

Robust watermarking scheme based on the JPEG2000 standard

Peer reviewed

A Hierarchical Approach for Multi-task Logistic Regression

Peer-reviewed