Back to square one: Identification issues in DSGE models

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. We show that observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are widespread, that they lead to biased estimates, unreliable t-statistics and may induce investigators to select false models. We examine whether different objective functions affect identification and study how small samples interact with parameters and shock identification. We provide diagnostics and tests to detect identification failures and apply them to a state-of-the-art model.

Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?

This paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in outputgrowth and inflation dynamics in the US. We identify a policy shock and a policy rule ina time-varying coefficients VAR using robust sign restrictions. The transmission of policyshocks has been relatively stable. The variance of the policy shock has decreased over time,but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflationand output growth volatility and persistence. We find little evidence of a significant increasein the long run response of the interest rate to inflation. A more aggressive inflation policyin the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs.

The structural dynamics of US output and inflation: What explains the changes?

We examine the dynamics of US output and inflation using a structural time varyingcoefficient VAR. We show that there are changes in the volatility of both variables andin the persistence of inflation. Technology shocks explain changes in output volatility,while a combination of technology, demand and monetary shocks explain variations inthe persistence and volatility of inflation. We detect changes over time in the transmission of technology shocks and in the variance of technology and of monetary policyshocks. Hours and labor productivity always increase in response to technology shocks.

The structural dynamics of output growth and inflation: some international evidence

We examine the dynamics of output growth and inflation in the US, Euro area and UK using a structural time varying coefficient VAR. There are important similarities in structural inflation dynamics across countries; output growth dynamics differ. Swings in the magnitude of inflation and output growth volatilities and persistences are accounted for by a combination of three structural shocks. Changes over time in the structure of the economy are limited and permanent variations largely absent. Changes in the volatilities of structural shocks matter.

On the sources of the Great Moderation

The remarkable decline in macroeconomic volatility experienced by the U.S. economy since the mid-80s (the so-called Great Moderation) has been accompanied by large changes in the patterns of comovements among output, hours and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. That evidencepoints to structural change, as opposed to just good luck, as an explanation for the Great Moderation. We use a simple macro model to suggest some of the immediate sources which are likely to be behindthe observed changes.

Do expectations matter? The Great Moderation revisited

We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and of interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Including or excluding expectations hardly changes the economic explanation of the Great Moderation. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirical model.

Desigualdades de género en la salud laboral de la población trabajadora del sector servicios en España

Objetivos: Identificar las desigualdades de género en las condiciones de empleo, en la exposición a factores de riesgo psicosocial y en los daños a la salud en los trabajadores asalariados del sector servicios, y examinar si los patrones son diferentes según la categoría ocupacional.

Impacto de la ayuda oficial al desarrollo de donantes de OCDE-CAD en el proceso de reconciliación nacional en Perú (2000-2010)

La cooperación internacional en el Perú ha tenido un rol importante durante la reconciliación nacional y transición democrática en el Perú luego del terrorismo. El presente trabajo se centrará en la denominada ayuda oficial al desarrollo (AOD) de fuentes bilaterales del 2000 al 2010, pues es la que ha tenido un protagonismo decisivo en el país, sobre todo en las políticas relativas a construcción de paz (peace building) y reconstrucción democrática y porque existe información y registros más fiables tales como los de la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) así como de las agencias gubernamentales.

Optimal management of microgrids

Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.. Desenvolupament dels models matemàtics necessaris per a controlar de forma òptima la microxarxa existent als laboratoris del Institut de Recerca en Energia de Catalunya. Els algoritmes s'implementaran per tal de simular el comportament i posteriorment es programaran directament sobre els elements de la microxarxa per verificar el seu correcte funcionament.

Disordered backgammon model

In this paper we consider an exactly solvable model that displays glassy behavior at zero temperature due to entropic barriers. The new ingredient of the model is the existence of different energy scales or modes associated with different relaxational time scales. Low-temperature relaxation takes place by partial equilibration of successive lower-energy modes. An adiabatic scaling solution, defined in terms of a threshold energy scale e*, is proposed. For such a solution, modes with energy ee* are equilibrated at the bath temperature, modes with ee* remain out of equilibrium, and relaxation occurs in the neighborhood of the threshold e~e*. The model is presented as a toy example to investigate the conditions related to the existence of an effective temperature in glassy systems and its possible dependence on the energy sector is probed by the corresponding observable.

Early use of TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding.

Background Patients with cirrhosis in ChildPugh class C or those in class B who have persistent bleeding at endoscopy are at high risk for treatment failure and a poor prognosis, even if they have undergone rescue treatment with a transjugular intrahepatic porto - systemic shunt (TIPS). This study evaluated the earlier use of TIPS in such patients. Methods We randomly assigned, within 24 hours after admission, a total of 63 patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding who had been treated with vasoactive drugs plus endoscopic therapy to treatment with a polytetrafluoroethylene-covered stent within 72 hours after randomization (early-TIPS group, 32 patients) or continuation of vasoactive-drug therapy, followed after 3 to 5 days by treatment with propranolol or nadolol and long-term endoscopic band ligation (EBL), with insertion of a TIPS if needed as rescue therapy (pharmacotherapyEBL group, 31 patients). Results During a median follow-up of 16 months, rebleeding or failure to control bleeding occurred in 14 patients in the pharmacotherapyEBL group as compared with 1 patient in the early-TIPS group (P=0.001). The 1-year actuarial probability of remaining free of this composite end point was 50% in the pharmacotherapyEBL group versus 97% in the early-TIPS group (P<0.001). Sixteen patients died (12 in the pharmacotherapyEBL group and 4 in the early-TIPS group, P=0.01). The 1-year actuarial survival was 61% in the pharmacotherapyEBL group versus 86% in the early-TIPS group (P<0.001). Seven patients in the pharmacotherapyEBL group received TIPS as rescue therapy, but four died. The number of days in the intensive care unit and the percentage of time in the hospital during follow-up were significantly higher in the pharmacotherapyEBL group than in the early-TIPS group. No significant diferences were observed between the two treatment groups with respect to serious adverse events. Conclusions In these patients with cirrhosis who were hospitalized for acute variceal bleeding and at high risk for treatment failure, the early use of TIPS was associated with signif icant reductions in treatment failure and in mortality. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN58150114.)

Antimicrobial Activity of Iberian macroalgae

The antibacterial and antifungal activity of 82 marine macroalgae (18 Chlorophyceae, 25 Phaeophyceae and 39 Rhodophyceae) was studied to evaluate their potential for being used as natural preservatives in the cosmetic industry. The bioactivity was analysed from crude extracts of fresh and lyophilised samples against three Gram-positive bacteria, two Gram-negative bacteria and one yeast using the agar diffusion technique. The samples were collected seasonally from Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts of the Iberian Peninsula. Of the macroalgae analysed, 67% were active against at least one of the six test microorganisms. The highest percentage of active taxa was found in Phaeophyceae (84%), followed by Rhodophyceae (67%) and Chlorophyceae (44%). Nevertheless, red algae had both the highest values and the broadest spectrum of bioactivity. In particular, Bonnemaisonia asparagoides, Bonnemaisonia hamifera, Asparagopsis armata and Falkenbergia rufolanosa (Bonnemaisoniales) were the most active taxa. Bacillus cereus was the most sensitive test microorganism and Pseudomonas aeruginosa was the most resistant. The highest percentages of active taxa from Phaeophyceae and Rhodophyceae were found in autumn, whereas they were found in summer for Chlorophyceae.

International debt deleveraging

I provide a framework for understanding debt deleveraging in a group of financiallyintegrated countries. During an episode of international deleveraging world consumptiondemand is depressed and the world interest rate is low, reflecting a high propensity to save.If exchange rates are allowed to float, deleveraging countries can depreciate their nominalexchange rate to increase production and mitigate the fall in consumption associatedwith debt reduction. The key insight of the paper is that in a monetary union thischannel of adjustment is shut off, and therefore the falls in consumption demand and inthe world interest rate are amplified. Hence, monetary unions are especially prone tohit the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate and enter a liquidity trap duringdeleveraging. In a liquidity trap deleveraging gives rise to a union-wide recession, which isparticularly severe in high-debt countries. The model suggests several policy interventionsthat mitigate the negative impact of deleveraging on output in monetary unions.

Desigualdades de género en la salud relacionadas con lacombinación de la vida laboral y familiar en Cataluña

Objetivos: Los objetivos de este estudio fueron: 1) analizar las desigualdades de género en la salud en la población asalariada, de 25 a 64 años, casada o que vive en pareja en Cataluña y 2) examinar las desigualdades de género en la relación entre las exigencias de la esfera doméstica y familiar, las horas de trabajo remunerado y la salud.Métodos: Los datos proceden de la Encuesta de Salud de Cataluña de 2006 (ESCA 2006). La población analizada fueron hombres y mujeres entre 25 y 64 años, asalariados y que convivían en pareja (N =4.537). Las variables dependientes fueron el estado de salud percibido, la salud mental, el consumo de psicofármacos y las horas de sueño. Las variables explicativas fueron el número de horas de trabajo remunerado, número de personas en el hogar, la convivencia con menores de 12 años, la convivencia con personas entre 65 y 74 años, la convivencia con personas mayores de 74 años y, tener una persona contratada para realizar trabajo doméstico.Resultados: Convivir con menores de 12 años se asoció negativamente con mala salud y con consumo de psicofármacos en las mujeres; que el consumo de psicofármacos en mujeres estaba relacionado positivamente con la convivencia con personas entre 65 y 74 años y con la convivencia con mayores de 74 años (aOR: 2,60; 95% IC: 1,41-4,80 y aOR: 2,93; 95% IC: 1,58-5,44 respectivamente) y en los dos sexos los largos horarios de trabajo se asociaron con problemas de salud mental aunque en mayor proporción en hombres.Conclusión: La combinación de las exigencias familiares y las horas de trabajo remunerado se asocia con diversos indicadores de salud con diferentes patrones en hombres y en mujeres.