114 resultados para Exponential smoothing methods
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Background: The cooperative interaction between transcription factors has a decisive role in the control of the fate of the eukaryotic cell. Computational approaches for characterizing cooperative transcription factors in yeast, however, are based on different rationales and provide a low overlap between their results. Because the wealth of information contained in protein interaction networks and regulatory networks has proven highly effective in elucidating functional relationships between proteins, we compared different sets of cooperative transcription factor pairs (predicted by four different computational methods) within the frame of those networks. Results: Our results show that the overlap between the sets of cooperative transcription factors predicted by the different methods is low yet significant. Cooperative transcription factors predicted by all methods are closer and more clustered in the protein interaction network than expected by chance. On the other hand, members of a cooperative transcription factor pair neither seemed to regulate each other nor shared similar regulatory inputs, although they do regulate similar groups of target genes. Conclusion: Despite the different definitions of transcriptional cooperativity and the different computational approaches used to characterize cooperativity between transcription factors, the analysis of their roles in the framework of the protein interaction network and the regulatory network indicates a common denominator for the predictions under study. The knowledge of the shared topological properties of cooperative transcription factor pairs in both networks can be useful not only for designing better prediction methods but also for better understanding the complexities of transcriptional control in eukaryotes.
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Background: The aim of this report is to describe the main characteristics of the design, including response rates, of the Cornella Health Interview Survey Follow-up Study. Methods: The original cohort consisted of 2,500 subjects (1,263 women and 1,237 men) interviewed as part of the 1994 Cornella Health Interview Study. A record linkage to update the address and vital status of the cohort members was carried out using, first a deterministic method, and secondly a probabilistic one, based on each subject's first name and surnames. Subsequently, we attempted to locate the cohort members to conduct the phone follow-up interviews. A pilot study was carried out to test the overall feasibility and to modify some procedures before the field work began. Results: After record linkage, 2,468 (98.7%) subjects were successfully traced. Of these, 91 (3.6%) were deceased, 259 (10.3%) had moved to other towns, and 50 (2.0%) had neither renewed their last municipal census documents nor declared having moved. After using different strategies to track and to retain cohort members, we traced 92% of the CHIS participants. From them, 1,605 subjects answered the follow-up questionnaire. Conclusion: The computerized record linkage maximized the success of the follow-up that was carried out 7 years after the baseline interview. The pilot study was useful to increase the efficiency in tracing and interviewing the respondents.
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The Pseudo-Spectral Time Domain (PSTD) method is an alternative time-marching method to classical leapfrog finite difference schemes inthe simulation of wave-like propagating phenomena. It is based on the fundamentals of the Fourier transform to compute the spatial derivativesof hyperbolic differential equations. Therefore, it results in an isotropic operator that can be implemented in an efficient way for room acousticssimulations. However, one of the first issues to be solved consists on modeling wall absorption. Unfortunately, there are no references in thetechnical literature concerning to that problem. In this paper, assuming real and constant locally reacting impedances, several proposals toovercome this problem are presented, validated and compared to analytical solutions in different scenarios.
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We introduce simple nonparametric density estimators that generalize theclassical histogram and frequency polygon. The new estimators are expressed as linear combination of density functions that are piecewisepolynomials, where the coefficients are optimally chosen in order to minimize the integrated square error of the estimator. We establish the asymptotic behaviour of the proposed estimators, and study theirperformance in a simulation study.
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For the standard kernel density estimate, it is known that one can tune the bandwidth such that the expected L1 error is within a constant factor of the optimal L1 error (obtained when one is allowed to choose the bandwidth with knowledge of the density). In this paper, we pose the same problem for variable bandwidth kernel estimates where the bandwidths are allowed to depend upon the location. We show in particular that for positive kernels on the real line, for any data-based bandwidth, there exists a densityfor which the ratio of expected L1 error over optimal L1 error tends to infinity. Thus, the problem of tuning the variable bandwidth in an optimal manner is ``too hard''. Moreover, from the class of counterexamples exhibited in the paper, it appears thatplacing conditions on the densities (monotonicity, convexity, smoothness) does not help.
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Consider the density of the solution $X(t,x)$ of a stochastic heat equation with small noise at a fixed $t\in [0,T]$, $x \in [0,1]$.In the paper we study the asymptotics of this density as the noise is vanishing. A kind of Taylor expansion in powers of the noiseparameter is obtained. The coefficients and the residue of the expansion are explicitly calculated.In order to obtain this result some type of exponential estimates of tail probabilities of the difference between the approximatingprocess and the limit one is proved. Also a suitable local integration by parts formula is developped.
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The paper contrasts empirically the results of alternative methods for estimating thevalue and the depreciation of mineral resources. The historical data of Mexico andVenezuela, covering the period 1920s-1980s, is used to contrast the results of severalmethods. These are the present value, the net price method, the user cost method andthe imputed income method. The paper establishes that the net price and the user costare not competing methods as such, but alternative adjustments to different scenariosof closed and open economies. The results prove that the biases of the methods, ascommonly described in the theoretical literature, only hold under the most restrictedscenario of constant rents over time. It is argued that the difference between what isexpected to happen and what actually did happen is for the most part due to a missingvariable, namely technological change. This is an important caveat to therecommendations made based on these models.
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Consider the problem of testing k hypotheses simultaneously. In this paper,we discuss finite and large sample theory of stepdown methods that providecontrol of the familywise error rate (FWE). In order to improve upon theBonferroni method or Holm's (1979) stepdown method, Westfall and Young(1993) make eective use of resampling to construct stepdown methods thatimplicitly estimate the dependence structure of the test statistics. However,their methods depend on an assumption called subset pivotality. The goalof this paper is to construct general stepdown methods that do not requiresuch an assumption. In order to accomplish this, we take a close look atwhat makes stepdown procedures work, and a key component is a monotonicityrequirement of critical values. By imposing such monotonicity on estimatedcritical values (which is not an assumption on the model but an assumptionon the method), it is demonstrated that the problem of constructing a validmultiple test procedure which controls the FWE can be reduced to the problemof contructing a single test which controls the usual probability of a Type 1error. This reduction allows us to draw upon an enormous resamplingliterature as a general means of test contruction.
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In the fixed design regression model, additional weights areconsidered for the Nadaraya--Watson and Gasser--M\"uller kernel estimators.We study their asymptotic behavior and the relationships between new andclassical estimators. For a simple family of weights, and considering theIMSE as global loss criterion, we show some possible theoretical advantages.An empirical study illustrates the performance of the weighted estimatorsin finite samples.
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Principal curves have been defined Hastie and Stuetzle (JASA, 1989) assmooth curves passing through the middle of a multidimensional dataset. They are nonlinear generalizations of the first principalcomponent, a characterization of which is the basis for the principalcurves definition.In this paper we propose an alternative approach based on a differentproperty of principal components. Consider a point in the space wherea multivariate normal is defined and, for each hyperplane containingthat point, compute the total variance of the normal distributionconditioned to belong to that hyperplane. Choose now the hyperplaneminimizing this conditional total variance and look for thecorresponding conditional mean. The first principal component of theoriginal distribution passes by this conditional mean and it isorthogonal to that hyperplane. This property is easily generalized todata sets with nonlinear structure. Repeating the search from differentstarting points, many points analogous to conditional means are found.We call them principal oriented points. When a one-dimensional curveruns the set of these special points it is called principal curve oforiented points. Successive principal curves are recursively definedfrom a generalization of the total variance.
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We introduce a simple new hypothesis testing procedure, which,based on an independent sample drawn from a certain density, detects which of $k$ nominal densities is the true density is closest to, under the total variation (L_{1}) distance. Weobtain a density-free uniform exponential bound for the probability of false detection.
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Many multivariate methods that are apparently distinct can be linked by introducing oneor more parameters in their definition. Methods that can be linked in this way arecorrespondence analysis, unweighted or weighted logratio analysis (the latter alsoknown as "spectral mapping"), nonsymmetric correspondence analysis, principalcomponent analysis (with and without logarithmic transformation of the data) andmultidimensional scaling. In this presentation I will show how several of thesemethods, which are frequently used in compositional data analysis, may be linkedthrough parametrizations such as power transformations, linear transformations andconvex linear combinations. Since the methods of interest here all lead to visual mapsof data, a "movie" can be made where where the linking parameter is allowed to vary insmall steps: the results are recalculated "frame by frame" and one can see the smoothchange from one method to another. Several of these "movies" will be shown, giving adeeper insight into the similarities and differences between these methods.
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This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed modelsfor short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay.The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes theforecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and themixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component.The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of dataversus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interestbecause they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet.Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.
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We develop a general error analysis framework for the Monte Carlo simulationof densities for functionals in Wiener space. We also study variancereduction methods with the help of Malliavin derivatives. For this, wegive some general heuristic principles which are applied to diffusionprocesses. A comparison with kernel density estimates is made.