Out-of-sample forecast tests robust to the choice of window size

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecastingperformance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide rangeof window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the powerto detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across differentwindow sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of themethodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

Els manlleus en la revista “Time Out Barcelona”

El present treball constitueix un estudi i una anàlisi sobre les dades obtingudes del buidatge dels manlleus recollits en dos números de la revista catalana Time Out Barcelona. L’objectiu és aprofundir en el tema dels préstecs i extreure algunes conclusions sobre els tipus d’unitats manllevades i el seu tractament.

The underestimation of compliance to direct help requests explained by adaptive sampling

Helping behavior is any intentional behavior that benefits another living being or group (Hogg & Vaughan, 2010). People tend to underestimate the probability that others will comply with their direct requests for help (Flynn & Lake, 2008). This implies that when they need help, they will assess the probability of getting it (De Paulo, 1982, cited in Flynn & Lake, 2008) and then they will tend to estimate one that is actually lower than the real chance, so they may not even consider worth asking for it. Existing explanations for this phenomenon attribute it to a mistaken cost computation by the help seeker, who will emphasize the instrumental cost of “saying yes”, ignoring that the potential helper also needs to take into account the social cost of saying “no”. And the truth is that, especially in face-to-face interactions, the discomfort caused by refusing to help can be very high. In short, help seekers tend to fail to realize that it might be more costly to refuse to comply with a help request rather than accepting. A similar effect has been observed when estimating trustworthiness of people. Fetchenhauer and Dunning (2010) showed that people also tend to underestimate it. This bias is reduced when, instead of asymmetric feedback (getting feedback only when deciding to trust the other person), symmetric feedback (always given) was provided. This cause could as well be applicable to help seeking as people only receive feedback when they actually make their request but not otherwise. Fazio, Shook, and Eiser (2004) studied something that could be reinforcing these outcomes: Learning asymmetries. By means of a computer game called BeanFest, they showed that people learn better about negatively valenced objects (beans in this case) than about positively valenced ones. This learning asymmetry esteemed from “information gain being contingent on approach behavior” (p. 293), which could be identified with what Fetchenhauer and Dunning mention as ‘asymmetric feedback’, and hence also with help requests. Fazio et al. also found a generalization asymmetry in favor of negative attitudes versus positive ones. They attributed it to a negativity bias that “weights resemblance to a known negative more heavily than resemblance to a positive” (p. 300). Applied to help seeking scenarios, this would mean that when facing an unknown situation, people would tend to generalize and infer that is more likely that they get a negative rather than a positive outcome from it, so, along with what it was said before, people will be more inclined to think that they will get a “no” when requesting help. Denrell and Le Mens (2011) present a different perspective when trying to explain judgment biases in general. They deviate from the classical inappropriate information processing (depicted among other by Fiske & Taylor, 2007, and Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) and explain this in terms of ‘adaptive sampling’. Adaptive sampling is a sampling mechanism in which the selection of sample items is conditioned by the values of the variable of interest previously observed (Thompson, 2011). Sampling adaptively allows individuals to safeguard themselves from experiences they went through once and turned out to lay negative outcomes. However, it also prevents them from giving a second chance to those experiences to get an updated outcome that could maybe turn into a positive one, a more positive one, or just one that regresses to the mean, whatever direction that implies. That, as Denrell and Le Mens (2011) explained, makes sense: If you go to a restaurant, and you did not like the food, you do not choose that restaurant again. This is what we think could be happening when asking for help: When we get a “no”, we stop asking. And here, we want to provide a complementary explanation for the underestimation of the probability that others comply with our direct help requests based on adaptive sampling. First, we will develop and explain a model that represents the theory. Later on, we will test it empirically by means of experiments, and will elaborate on the analysis of its results.

In & Out – 180 habitatges per a gent jove i gent gran Camí Antic de València al Poblenou

Estratègies d’ordenació: L’ordenació proposada vol recollir la hibridesa i complexitat d’espais típica del Poble Nou. Caracteritzat pels espais lliures de mida intermèdia –a cavall entre els dels teixits i els del eixamples – i per la riquesa en les seves articulacions (mitjançant passatges, a través d’edificis,…) ; per la permeabilitat cap a l’interior de l’illa: la connexió dels buits interiors amb els carrers i espais públics annexes o per la variabilitat del gra edificat.És per això que l’edificació no s’entén com una sèrie de blocs aïllats sinó que està concebuda com una gran peça articulada, amb una alçada constant en el volum a carrer i una lleugera variabilitat volumètrica en altura en els diferents volums interiors de igual mòdul i de gra menor, homòleg al del seu context urbà més pròxim.És essencial al projecte la definició de l’espai buit interior de l’illa en relació als habitatges, i la seva relació –a una escala major- amb els espais lliures de l’entorn. L’ordenació proposada configura dos paisatges diferents: un pati més urbà, delimitat en planta baixa per un equipament del barri i al que s’hi aboquen els habitatges per a joves i un altre més tranquil i més tou, un jardí per als més grans, accessible des del carrer i des de l’espai públic contiguEl volum més llarg afegeix una nova inflexió a les que ja té el carrer, ampliant-lo amb un espai amb funció de vestíbul i recuperant així, a partir d’una traça parcel•laria històrica, la direcció de l’Eixample.Els diferents volums es relacionen/articulen mitjançant corredors i espais col•lectius de distintes mesures i qualitats. Espais de relació, de dimensió variable, en diferents situacions relatives –respecte al ple, al sòl- i amb distints caràcters, que van del privat al públic...passant pel col•lectiu.Les galeries i els corredors d'accés als habitatges, protagonistes d'aquests espais híbrids (privats-semiprivats-col•lectius/ interiors-exteriors/ tancats-oberts), es converteixen gràcies a la flexibilitat en el tancament de la unitat d'habitació en espais d'intercanvi, on la variabilitat en l'ús permet diferents apropiacions de l'espai col•lectiu.La superposició en altura d'aquests espais funciona com una estructura lleugera adossada a la façana, és una epidermis complexa amb aparença de bastida.L’edificació té la voluntat de tancar-se a carrer amb una façana poc perforada, que llisca indiferent al carrer, i d’obrir-se a l’interior de l’illa, a sud, on es torna complexa, amb successives pells i tamisos...

Redefining dropping out in online higher education: a case study from the UOC

In recent years, studies into the reasons for dropping out of higher education (including online education) have been undertaken with greater regularity, parallel to the rise in the relative weight of this type of education, compared with brick-and-mortar education. However, the work invested in characterising the students who drop out of education, compared with those who do not, appears not to have had the same relevance as that invested in the analysis of the causes. The definition of dropping out is very sensitive to the context. In this article, we reach a purely empirical definition of student dropping out, based on the probability of not continuing a specific academic programme following several consecutive semesters of "theoretical break". Dropping out should be properly defined before analysing its causes, as well as comparing the drop-out rates between the different online programmes, or between online and on-campus ones. Our results show that there are significant differences among programmes, depending on their theoretical extension, but not their domain of knowledge.

Estudi de la plataforma Google App Engine utilitzant Django

L'objectiu principal d'aquest treball es estudiar la plataforma Google App Engine en la seva versió en Phyton. Per a estudiar i provar la plataforma, s'ha desenvolupat una aplicació web de programari lliure que permet la publicació de blogs de viatges. Aquesta aplicació està desenvolupada sobre Django i s'integra amb altres serveis de Google com l'autenticació amb els seus comptes Google Maps o Picasa Web Albums.

Integration of a 3D rendering engine with a physics simulator

The goal of this project is the integration of a set of technologies (graphics, physical simulation, input), with the azm of assembling an application framework in phyton. In this research, a set of key introductory concepts are presented in adoption of a deep study of the state of the art of 3D applications. Phyton is selected an justified as the programing language due to the features and advantages that it offers in front of other languages. Finally the design and implementation of the framework is presented in the last chapter with some client application examples.

Implementing a metasearch engine : Metalib and SFX

L'article presenta les característiques i funcionalitats principals de les eines MetaLib i SFX, programaris per a la gestió i accés als recursos electrònics. S'analitzen els programaris citant els diferents tipus de funcionalitats, i la gestió i el manteniment. El procés s'emmarca en l'experiència de la Universitat Oberta de Catalunya, membre del CBUC, i se n'expliquen la configuració, els reptes i les dificultats que es van produir durant la implementació dels sistemes.

Radio Imaging of the Very-High-Energy γ-Ray Emission Region in the Central Engine of a Radio Galaxy

The accretion of matter onto a massive black hole is believed to feed the relativistic plasma jets found in many active galactic nuclei (AGN). Although some AGN accelerate particles to energies exceeding 1012 electron volts and are bright sources of very-high-energy (VHE) γ-ray emission, it is not yet known where the VHE emission originates. Here we report on radio and VHE observations of the radio galaxy Messier 87, revealing a period of extremely strong VHE γ-ray flares accompanied by a strong increase of the radio flux from its nucleus. These results imply that charged particles are accelerated to very high energies in the immediate vicinity of the black hole.

Singling out individual inventors from patent data

An increasing number of studies in recent years have sought to identify individual inventors from patent data. A variety of heuristics have been proposed for using the names and other information disclosed in patent documents to establish who is who in patents. This paper contributes to this literature by describing a methodology for identifying inventors using patents applied to the European Patent Office, EPO hereafter. As in much of this literature, we basically follow a threestep procedure : 1- the parsing stage, aimed at reducing the noise in the inventor’s name and other fields of the patent; 2- the matching stage, where name matching algorithms are used to group similar names; and 3- the filtering stage, where additional information and various scoring schemes are used to filter out these similarlynamed inventors. The paper presents the results obtained by using the algorithms with the set of European inventors applying to the EPO over a long period of time.

Use of open educational resources at the UOC

The Open University of Catalonia (UOC: Universitat Oberta de Catalunya) is currently implementing its 2009-2014 Strategic Plan, which devotes an entire section to open educational resources. The working group on this topic is drafting a report that establishes the objectives to be met, analyses the current lay of the land and sets out the actions required to meet the objectives. This paper examines each of these three points.

The unfathomable secret remains: a reverse engineering study of SEO factors on Google's search engine

The vast majority of users don’t seek results beyond the second page offered by the search engine, so if a site fails to be among the top 20 (second page), it says that this page does not have good SEO and, therefore, is not visible to the user. The overall objective of this project is to conduct a study to discover the factors that determine (or not) the positioning of websites in a search engine.

Building wood debris piles benefits avian seed dispersers in burned and logged Mediterranean pine forests

Salvage logging is a common practice carried out in burned forests worldwide, and intended to mitigate the economic losses caused by wildfires. Logging implies an additional disturbance occurring shortly after fire, although its ecological effects can be somewhat mitigated by leaving wood debris on site. The composition of the bird community and its capacity to provide ecosystem services such as seed dispersal offleshy-fruited plants have been shown to be affected by postfire logging. We assessedthe effects of the habitat structure resulting from different postfire management practices on the bird community, in three burned pine forests in Catalonia (western Mediterranean). For this purpose, we focused on the group of species that is responsible for seed dispersal, a process which takes place primarily during the winter in theMediterranean basin. In addition, we assessed microhabitat selection by seed disperser birds in such environments in relation to management practices. Our results showed a significant, positive relationship between the density of wood debris piles and the abundance of seed disperser birds. Furthermore, such piles were the preferredmicrohabitat of these species. This reveals an important effect of forest management on seed disperser birds, which is likely to affect the dynamics of bird-dependent seed dispersal. Thus, building wood debris piles can be a useful practice for the conservation of both the species and their ecosystem services, while also being compatible with timber harvesting

Reduction of the Ant Mandible Gap Range After Biotic Homogenization Caused by an Ant Invasion (Hymenoptera: Formicidae)

After most of the native ant species are displaced by the Argentine ant invasion, it is probable that some ecological processes carried out by natives are not replaced. In some cases this could be due to a morphological difference between the Argentine ant and the displaced native ants. The significant decrease in ant richness after the invasion (only two species detected in the invaded zones vs. 25 species in surrounding non-invaded zones) implies a drastic reduction in the ant mandible gap range (the mandible gap spectra of all the ant species in a community) in the invaded zones. This reduction could explain why some roles that were previously carried out by the displaced native species are not performed by the invasive species. This could be due to a functional inability to carry out these activities. The mandible gap waspositively correlated with the ant body mass in the 26 ant species considered. The functional inability hypothesis could be applied to other invasive ants as well as to the Argentine ant

Most of the Abundant Protein Fractions of Embryonic Cerebrospinal Fluid are Produced Out of the Brain Anlagen

The microenvironment of the central nervous system is important for neuronal function and development. During the early stages of embryo development the cephalic vesicles are filled by embryonic cerebrospinal fluid, a complex fluid containing different protein fractions, which contributes to the regulation of the survival, proliferation and neurogenesis of neuroectodermal stem cells. The protein content of embryonic cerebrospinal fluid from chick and rat embryos at the start of neurogenesis has already been determined. Most of the identified gene products are thought to be involved in the regulation of developmental processes during embryogenesis. However, due to the crucial roles played by embryonic cerebrospinal fluid during brain development, the embryological origin of the gene products it contains remains an intriguing question. According to the literature most of these products are synthesised in embryonic tissues other than the neuroepithelium. In this study we examined the embryological origin of the most abundant embryonic cerebrospinal fluid protein fractions by means of slot-blot analysis and by using several different embryonic and extraembryonic protein extracts, immunodetected with polyclonal antibodies. This first attempt to elucidate their origin is not based on the proteins identified by proteomic methods, but rather on crude protein fractions detected by SDS-PAGE analysis and to which polyclonal antibodies were specifically generated. Despite some of the limitations of this study, i.e. that one protein fraction may contain more than one gene product, and that a specific gene product may be contained in different protein fractions depending on post-translational modifications, our results show that most of the analysed protein fractions are not produced by the cephalic neuroectoderm but are rather stored in the egg reservoir; furthermore, few are produced by embryo tissues, thus indicating that they must be transported from their production or storage sites to the cephalic cavities, most probably via embryonic serum. These results raise the question as to whether the transfer of proteins from these two embryo compartments is regulated at this early developmental stage.